Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Is this what you want? Or what you think will happen? The reason I ask is that I too think it's very likely the Vikings are one of the teams pushing Austin Jackson into the 1st round. I've explained why in other posts. And if I were to make a prediction I would say he's going to be one of our first round picks.
And I hope I'm wrong about that.
I don't like boom or bust offensive linemen. I get swinging for the fences with QBs, backs, receivers, pass rushers...you hit on one, they can change games for you. Not offensive linemen. To me, taking a project like AJ smacks of coaching arrogance: "Hey, we know he's a work in progress, his footwork is all over the place and he's wildly inconsistent, but we can fix him."
Maybe, but I suspect coaches thought the same about Ereck Flowers, Garett Bolles, TJ Clemmings, etc. When it comes to OLs, I'll take steady and consistent over gambling on upside every time.
If it were just me who thought this, that would be one thing, but some of the football people I respect the most also think Jackson is terribly overrated. Maybe they're all wrong. Maybe I'm wrong (I was wrong about O'Neill), but do we really want to invest a 1st round pick on a player about whom there is this much disagreement?
Its the latter and what I think will happen, not my preference. I laid it out above in my response to @ Tyr but they are going to find themselves between a rock and a hard place if 4-5 OTs are off the board before they pick. In a perfect world maybe that means Kinlaw makes it to them and they are happier with that. But if they're set on taking an OT it basically has to be in round 1 if they want any immediate contribution. The same could be said for DE too though. Cutting to the point, I think they're going to improve the trenches one way or another tonight.
Jackson specifically isn't perfect, but his pure LT traits are strong. He's much better than Flowers, Bolles, and Clemmings. He has balance and his lower body works with his upper half. Play technique and hand technique are his issues. Historically those two things are fixable while the other two are not. But there is risk with any O-lineman and some scouts would tell you its literally a coin flip no matter who the guy is.
I've talked to a dozen NFL personnel guys on Jackson. You're 100% correct that there is no consensus. But there is a group that live and die by the guy, one who is one of the best O-line evaluators league wide.
I like to look for the "why" in all players. For example, why was Stefon Diggs such a slug at Maryland? Because he had a terrible QB and he was often hurt. Why was such a great athlete with such a great motor like Neville Gallimore so unproductive at OU? Because he was playing nose in a 3-4 with ends no one respected, and so he was frequently double and triple teamed. What might he have looked like in 4-3 as an undertackle?
One of things that gives me hope about Jackson is that he had no offseason prior to 2019 due to his bone marrow thing. He wasn't able to even do squats until game 4. Could that explain the inconsistency? Maybe.
But as soon as I say that, I hear myself four years ago trying to talk myself into liking the Laquon Treadwell pick. Maybe the remarkable lack of juice or athleticism I saw in his tape was due to lingering issues from his leg injury? Nope.
If Jackson's the pick, I won't like it, but I'll assume the Vikings have done their homework on the "WHY."
Austin Jackson: Isn't it funny how OTs from USC were long considered about as sure-fire as could be found in the NFL draft, from Ron Yary to Anthony Munoz, Tony Boselli, and Tyron Smith? But then came Matt Kalil. I think most of us are overly cautious about USC players thanks to Kalil. But I would welcome the pick. If Jackson was completely refined, he would be a top 10 pick. Unless we plan on some +10-loss seasons soon, we aren't going to draft a franchise LT who is a finished product. Jackson is NOT Matt Kalil, he seems to be a high character person who understands the NFL and will work to reach his potential.
WRs: Like Tyr, I like Van Jefferson more than KJ Hamler. You have mocked Hamler to the Vikings twice so maybe you know they are high on him, but of all the WR options you cited for this pick, I would prefer any of the others. Questionable hands, poor routes, great returner - Hamler seems like Cordarelle Patterson without the size.
James Lynch: He makes sense but begs the question: are the Vikings completely done with Jayln Holmes? This team can't seem to fill the 3T need by coaching up a mid-round pick (Holmes, Jaleel Johnson) so I don't know if it's worth expecting another pick in the same range to work out.
I haven't studied all your later picks thoroughly but appreciate all the possibilities. Question: with so many day 3 picks, wouldn't the Vikings like to add a RB? Maybe Mike Boone is better than I think but if we didn't have Cook for any length of time I would think pairing Mattison with another back would be important.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Is this what you want? Or what you think will happen? The reason I ask is that I too think it's very likely the Vikings are one of the teams pushing Austin Jackson into the 1st round. I've explained why in other posts. And if I were to make a prediction I would say he's going to be one of our first round picks.
And I hope I'm wrong about that.
I don't like boom or bust offensive linemen. I get swinging for the fences with QBs, backs, receivers, pass rushers...you hit on one, they can change games for you. Not offensive linemen. To me, taking a project like AJ smacks of coaching arrogance: "Hey, we know he's a work in progress, his footwork is all over the place and he's wildly inconsistent, but we can fix him."
Maybe, but I suspect coaches thought the same about Ereck Flowers, Garett Bolles, TJ Clemmings, etc. When it comes to OLs, I'll take steady and consistent over gambling on upside every time.
If it were just me who thought this, that would be one thing, but some of the football people I respect the most also think Jackson is terribly overrated. Maybe they're all wrong. Maybe I'm wrong (I was wrong about O'Neill), but do we really want to invest a 1st round pick on a player about whom there is this much disagreement?
Its the latter and what I think will happen, not my preference. I laid it out above in my response to @ Tyr but they are going to find themselves between a rock and a hard place if 4-5 OTs are off the board before they pick. In a perfect world maybe that means Kinlaw makes it to them and they are happier with that. But if they're set on taking an OT it basically has to be in round 1 if they want any immediate contribution. The same could be said for DE too though. Cutting to the point, I think they're going to improve the trenches one way or another tonight.
Jackson specifically isn't perfect, but his pure LT traits are strong. He's much better than Flowers, Bolles, and Clemmings. He has balance and his lower body works with his upper half. Play technique and hand technique are his issues. Historically those two things are fixable while the other two are not. But there is risk with any O-lineman and some scouts would tell you its literally a coin flip no matter who the guy is.
I've talked to a dozen NFL personnel guys on Jackson. You're 100% correct that there is no consensus. But there is a group that live and die by the guy, one who is one of the best O-line evaluators league wide.
I like to look for the "why" in all players. For example, why was Stefon Diggs such a slug at Maryland? Because he had a terrible QB and he was often hurt. Why was such a great athlete with such a great motor like Neville Gallimore so unproductive at OU? Because he was playing nose in a 3-4 with ends no one respected, and so he was frequently double and triple teamed. What might he have looked like in 4-3 as an undertackle?
One of things that gives me hope about Jackson is that he had no offseason prior to 2019 due to his bone marrow thing. He wasn't able to even do squats until game 4. Could that explain the inconsistency? Maybe.
But as soon as I say that, I hear myself four years ago trying to talk myself into liking the Laquon Treadwell pick. Maybe the remarkable lack of juice or athleticism I saw in his tape was due to lingering issues from his leg injury? Nope.
If Jackson's the pick, I won't like it, but I'll assume the Vikings have done their homework on the "WHY."
Which begs the question, why didn't they do their homework on Treadwell? Woulda saved all involved a lotta grief.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
Austin Jackson: Isn't it funny how OTs from USC were long considered about as sure-fire as could be found in the NFL draft, from Ron Yary to Anthony Munoz, Tony Boselli, and Tyron Smith? But then came Matt Kalil. I think most of us are overly cautious about USC players thanks to Kalil. But I would welcome the pick. If Jackson was completely refined, he would be a top 10 pick. Unless we plan on some +10-loss seasons soon, we aren't going to draft a franchise LT who is a finished product. Jackson is NOT Matt Kalil, he seems to be a high character person who understands the NFL and will work to reach his potential.
WRs: Like Tyr, I like Van Jefferson more than KJ Hamler. You have mocked Hamler to the Vikings twice so maybe you know they are high on him, but of all the WR options you cited for this pick, I would prefer any of the others. Questionable hands, poor routes, great returner - Hamler seems like Cordarelle Patterson without the size.
James Lynch: He makes sense but begs the question: are the Vikings completely done with Jayln Holmes? This team can't seem to fill the 3T need by coaching up a mid-round pick (Holmes, Jaleel Johnson) so I don't know if it's worth expecting another pick in the same range to work out.
I haven't studied all your later picks thoroughly but appreciate all the possibilities. Question: with so many day 3 picks, wouldn't the Vikings like to add a RB? Maybe Mike Boone is better than I think but if we didn't have Cook for any length of time I would think pairing Mattison with another back would be important.
Good points all-around. The backstory of Jackson is definitely special and the USC coaching staff rave about him. I called Jalyn Holmes the wild-card along the D-line last year and we still don't know what he is. They've kept in along the interior D-line over the past two years but I don't think you can assume he is going to develop at this point. He has the opportunity to earn a spot in the D-line rotation but there is nothing tangible to believe he will.
The one thing I will add on Hamler is that currently the Vikings only have one game-breaker on offense, Dalvin Cook. Although Hamler has his flaws he's a twitch route runner and can completely clown defenses at times. You're doing something right when you're taking slants 70+ yards to the house against the Ohio State defense.
Quote: @comet52 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Is this what you want? Or what you think will happen? The reason I ask is that I too think it's very likely the Vikings are one of the teams pushing Austin Jackson into the 1st round. I've explained why in other posts. And if I were to make a prediction I would say he's going to be one of our first round picks.
And I hope I'm wrong about that.
I don't like boom or bust offensive linemen. I get swinging for the fences with QBs, backs, receivers, pass rushers...you hit on one, they can change games for you. Not offensive linemen. To me, taking a project like AJ smacks of coaching arrogance: "Hey, we know he's a work in progress, his footwork is all over the place and he's wildly inconsistent, but we can fix him."
Maybe, but I suspect coaches thought the same about Ereck Flowers, Garett Bolles, TJ Clemmings, etc. When it comes to OLs, I'll take steady and consistent over gambling on upside every time.
If it were just me who thought this, that would be one thing, but some of the football people I respect the most also think Jackson is terribly overrated. Maybe they're all wrong. Maybe I'm wrong (I was wrong about O'Neill), but do we really want to invest a 1st round pick on a player about whom there is this much disagreement?
Its the latter and what I think will happen, not my preference. I laid it out above in my response to @ Tyr but they are going to find themselves between a rock and a hard place if 4-5 OTs are off the board before they pick. In a perfect world maybe that means Kinlaw makes it to them and they are happier with that. But if they're set on taking an OT it basically has to be in round 1 if they want any immediate contribution. The same could be said for DE too though. Cutting to the point, I think they're going to improve the trenches one way or another tonight.
Jackson specifically isn't perfect, but his pure LT traits are strong. He's much better than Flowers, Bolles, and Clemmings. He has balance and his lower body works with his upper half. Play technique and hand technique are his issues. Historically those two things are fixable while the other two are not. But there is risk with any O-lineman and some scouts would tell you its literally a coin flip no matter who the guy is.
I've talked to a dozen NFL personnel guys on Jackson. You're 100% correct that there is no consensus. But there is a group that live and die by the guy, one who is one of the best O-line evaluators league wide.
I like to look for the "why" in all players. For example, why was Stefon Diggs such a slug at Maryland? Because he had a terrible QB and he was often hurt. Why was such a great athlete with such a great motor like Neville Gallimore so unproductive at OU? Because he was playing nose in a 3-4 with ends no one respected, and so he was frequently double and triple teamed. What might he have looked like in 4-3 as an undertackle?
One of things that gives me hope about Jackson is that he had no offseason prior to 2019 due to his bone marrow thing. He wasn't able to even do squats until game 4. Could that explain the inconsistency? Maybe.
But as soon as I say that, I hear myself four years ago trying to talk myself into liking the Laquon Treadwell pick. Maybe the remarkable lack of juice or athleticism I saw in his tape was due to lingering issues from his leg injury? Nope.
If Jackson's the pick, I won't like it, but I'll assume the Vikings have done their homework on the "WHY."
Which begs the question, why didn't they do their homework on Treadwell? Woulda saved all involved a lotta grief.
In hindsight I think they ended up getting burned on their medical evaluation thinking his ankle/leg break wasn't healed and impacted his testing and would continue to progress. If you watch his film pre-injury he was much more explosive and smooth.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
Austin Jackson: Isn't it funny how OTs from USC were long considered about as sure-fire as could be found in the NFL draft, from Ron Yary to Anthony Munoz, Tony Boselli, and Tyron Smith? But then came Matt Kalil. I think most of us are overly cautious about USC players thanks to Kalil. But I would welcome the pick. If Jackson was completely refined, he would be a top 10 pick. Unless we plan on some +10-loss seasons soon, we aren't going to draft a franchise LT who is a finished product. Jackson is NOT Matt Kalil, he seems to be a high character person who understands the NFL and will work to reach his potential.
My fear of Jackson has zero to do with the fact that he went to USC. He reminds me of Kalil because he got beat a lot and he plays soft.
I mentioned earlier that there were football people whose opinion I respect who aren't big fans of Jackson. PFF is NOT one of them. Personally, I don't think they're particularly good at identifying traits at the college level that translate well to the NFL. Still, this is something to keep in mind, as it's part of the unsettling disparity of opinion when it comes to Jackson.
It's almost hard to believe that some view Austin Jackson as a top-five offensive tackle and a first-round product. On our big board, he is the No. 13 offensive tackle and 100th prospect overall. The biggest reason for the divide between PFF and the scouts and other media is the lack of consistency and physicality, as well as how badly he performed against NFL-caliber pass-rushers. Jackson ranked outside the top 30 left tackles in both pass-block grade and run-block grade in each of the last two seasons, and, as mentioned in the PFF Draft Guide, his three worst games of 2019 came against the only NFL-caliber pass-rushers he faced all year long: Utah (Bradlee Anae), Notre Dame (Julian Okwara) and Iowa (A.J. Epenesa). If he got sliced and diced by those three, imagine how he'd fare against the likes of Von Miller, Khalil Mack and J.J. Watt.
@ MaroonBells PFF totally lost me when a nice young man with a man bun told me that tackling wasn't important...
Quote: @Jor-El said:
Austin Jackson: Isn't it funny how OTs from USC were long considered about as sure-fire as could be found in the NFL draft, from Ron Yary to Anthony Munoz, Tony Boselli, and Tyron Smith? But then came Matt Kalil. I think most of us are overly cautious about USC players thanks to Kalil. But I would welcome the pick. If Jackson was completely refined, he would be a top 10 pick. Unless we plan on some +10-loss seasons soon, we aren't going to draft a franchise LT who is a finished product. Jackson is NOT Matt Kalil, he seems to be a high character person who understands the NFL and will work to reach his potential.
I dont like any player from USC, I just think bust when ever I think of the trojans, and a broken trojan is about as bad as it gets.
seriously though, USC just seems to have lost its luster the last decade or so. their football program is not even close to putting out the type of players it used to and I dont think the PAC 12 conference has enough quality top to bottom to really look at players from there and say they played much for quality opponents. Sure there are outliers, but I would say unless the guy just blows your doors off from USC... hard pass.
I’m not a fan of the OT pick with our first, but I get the desire. It can be so tough to find that guy unless you have a top 5 pick. With that said, Reiff is definitely good enough in my opinion to make the idea we need a LT in the first round a bit of a stretch. Especially if he’s the fourth or fifth off the board. He has a lot of good qualities, but in my opinion there will be far better options. What it comes down to for me is I have an inherent difference in philosophy to some GM’s. It’s always best player available and I’d never go away from that, because that’s exactly how you get burned. The only time you consider position is when you are picking between potential equals.
I like the rest of your mock. Hamler is a bit of a controversial pick, but a guy with his explosiveness can be a big help for an offense, even if he’s not getting the ball. That threat is a huge positive for an offense.
Great job as always Geoff!
|
