Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ kmillard said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Vikergirl said:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1250095233632808961?s=19
not making a political statement here, but its funny how this guys is like teflon... he has made a lot of statements that in hindsight have proven to be inaccurate. he is our leading expert and has been proven wrong by this thing as much as he's been right. its no wonder the country is turned on itself when even the experts are wrong more than a weather man. what are we all to believe?
Well I believe the treating of the whole country like NYC is silly. Common sense says certain areas based on population and location can open up just fine and others will be in smaller increments. Funny how Sweden and others were able to not have issues just using good practices in public without shutting down.
totally different society than the selfish society we have, IMO that allowed for them to handle it differently than what was a best approach for the US. Also I would guess t hat underlying health issues are greater here in the US than in Sweden so they were less likely to really get hit as hard as we will. its really hard to compare apples to apples on this thing when they dont even understand the ramification of the variable from a health or society aspect yet.
time will tell, i dont think there is a model response yet from any affected area.
I think the bold hit the nail on the head.
Will say that my area I have been mostly impressed by how people have adhered to distancing and being careful. Even with all the wide open spaces.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
@ kmillard said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Vikergirl said:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1250095233632808961?s=19
not making a political statement here, but its funny how this guys is like teflon... he has made a lot of statements that in hindsight have proven to be inaccurate. he is our leading expert and has been proven wrong by this thing as much as he's been right. its no wonder the country is turned on itself when even the experts are wrong more than a weather man. what are we all to believe?
Well I believe the treating of the whole country like NYC is silly.
I think they recognize that and we'll see differences depending on demography. At least I hope so.
What they do in Jimmys part of the world in South Dakota (which never issued a SAH order) will look vastly different than NYS or even MN.
This also quickly leads into a discussion of Governors vs Feds and who has the final say on how and when.
Even big states governed by Cuomo and Newsome may do things radically different from each other.
even in regions of states, what would have been best in SFalls, wouldnt have made sense in other places necessarily. even the timing of the stay at home orders. a nation wide blanket order would have been futile and useless based on the spread, just as a nationwide reopening would be equally ignorant as we are all at different stages with this thing in terms of herd exposure and any developed immunity.
I am really hoping this pin prick test for immunity is able to be mass produced rapidly so that we can start clearing parts of the country and especially certain industries to get the economy starting to roll again. I dont agree with the sentiment of the the president that this economy is going to come roaring back, if we reopen the country cautiously and smart it will result in a slow restart, but it will be the smartest way to do it until more is known or we will be back to quarantining in a matter of a few months.
Quote: @kmillard said:
@ purplefaithful said:
@ kmillard said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Vikergirl said:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1250095233632808961?s=19
not making a political statement here, but its funny how this guys is like teflon... he has made a lot of statements that in hindsight have proven to be inaccurate. he is our leading expert and has been proven wrong by this thing as much as he's been right. its no wonder the country is turned on itself when even the experts are wrong more than a weather man. what are we all to believe?
Well I believe the treating of the whole country like NYC is silly.
I think thats what we'll see as they try to get the economy going. What they can do in Jimmys part of the world in South Dakota will look vastly different than NYS or even MN.
This also quickly leads into a discussion of Governors vs Feds and who has the final say on how and when.
Cuomo and Newsome may do things radically different from each other.
Again MN is vastly different in itself, I realize all the matters is the twin cities but everywhere else is pretty wide open. Where I live there is more in common with ND than MN. But then Northern MN to our governor is st cloud.
Very true.
Heck, I'm guilty of that as well living just 20 mins nw of Mpls...I dont know if the system ultimately implemented will have the flex to do that or not? I have my doubts simply because we've never done this before.
Seems like the right thing to do vs basing an entire state plan on Hennepin and Ramsey Counties in a vacuum.
I dont even know if they can get the big counties right to be honest, let alone the more disparate populations in the state.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
He's probably right on this... The amount of testing available will be a critical factor as to how much and how quickly we reopen.
I think we can do 40,000 a mos now as a country, but we'll need to be able to do 40,000 a week. I'm not sure where I heard or read that so dont bank it.
Pretty simple that you've got to test, trace and isolate. Tracing and isolating aint happening without testing.
That's the huge issue. The test supply is lacking and the states are not testing enough people yet.
Personally, I think contact tracing off of positive tests is a fools errand. The two main reasons for this are the high false negatives as well as the rapid spread with long latency to detection. Early on or in reference to a small area or location it may have some value, but not much on a larger scale.
In my opinion, the majority of testing resources should be put towards antibody testing and ensuring a person becomes immune after having it. A person found to have recovered can return to work and/or help the vulnerable. There’s all this discussion about phasing the economy back into operation and this is how you do it in my opinion. At the same time, we keep the vulnerable locked down as herd immunity builds.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
Personally, I think contact tracing off of positive tests is a fools errand. The two main reasons for this are the high false negatives as well as the rapid spread with long latency to detection. Early on or in reference to a small area or location it may have some value, but not much on a larger scale.
In my opinion, the majority of testing resources should be put towards antibody testing and ensuring a person becomes immune after having it. A person found to have recovered can return to work and/or help the vulnerable. There’s all this discussion about phasing the economy back into operation and this is how you do it in my opinion. At the same time, we keep the vulnerable locked down as herd immunity builds.
this is what i was trying to say... but you said it better.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ purplefaithful said:
@ kmillard said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Vikergirl said:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1250095233632808961?s=19
not making a political statement here, but its funny how this guys is like teflon... he has made a lot of statements that in hindsight have proven to be inaccurate. he is our leading expert and has been proven wrong by this thing as much as he's been right. its no wonder the country is turned on itself when even the experts are wrong more than a weather man. what are we all to believe?
Well I believe the treating of the whole country like NYC is silly.
I think they recognize that and we'll see differences depending on demography. At least I hope so.
What they do in Jimmys part of the world in South Dakota (which never issued a SAH order) will look vastly different than NYS or even MN.
This also quickly leads into a discussion of Governors vs Feds and who has the final say on how and when.
Even big states governed by Cuomo and Newsome may do things radically different from each other.
even in regions of states, what would have been best in SFalls, wouldnt have made sense in other places necessarily. even the timing of the stay at home orders. a nation wide blanket order would have been futile and useless based on the spread, just as a nationwide reopening would be equally ignorant as we are all at different stages with this thing in terms of herd exposure and any developed immunity.
I am really hoping this pin prick test for immunity is able to be mass produced rapidly so that we can start clearing parts of the country and especially certain industries to get the economy starting to roll again. I dont agree with the sentiment of the the president that this economy is going to come roaring back, if we reopen the country cautiously and smart it will result in a slow restart, but it will be the smartest way to do it until more is known or we will be back to quarantining in a matter of a few months.
That antibody test is key. Sooner rather than later.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ purplefaithful said:
@ kmillard said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Vikergirl said:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1250095233632808961?s=19
not making a political statement here, but its funny how this guys is like teflon... he has made a lot of statements that in hindsight have proven to be inaccurate. he is our leading expert and has been proven wrong by this thing as much as he's been right. its no wonder the country is turned on itself when even the experts are wrong more than a weather man. what are we all to believe?
Well I believe the treating of the whole country like NYC is silly.
I think they recognize that and we'll see differences depending on demography. At least I hope so.
What they do in Jimmys part of the world in South Dakota (which never issued a SAH order) will look vastly different than NYS or even MN.
This also quickly leads into a discussion of Governors vs Feds and who has the final say on how and when.
Even big states governed by Cuomo and Newsome may do things radically different from each other.
even in regions of states, what would have been best in SFalls, wouldnt have made sense in other places necessarily. even the timing of the stay at home orders. a nation wide blanket order would have been futile and useless based on the spread, just as a nationwide reopening would be equally ignorant as we are all at different stages with this thing in terms of herd exposure and any developed immunity.
I am really hoping this pin prick test for immunity is able to be mass produced rapidly so that we can start clearing parts of the country and especially certain industries to get the economy starting to roll again. I dont agree with the sentiment of the the president that this economy is going to come roaring back, if we reopen the country cautiously and smart it will result in a slow restart, but it will be the smartest way to do it until more is known or we will be back to quarantining in a matter of a few months.
hell, Smithfield Meat Packing Plant should have had it's own set of rules, let alone a county.
The testing and tracing is going to be key. Situations like Jimmy is seeing at the meatpacking outbreak, without the data from testing, it just going to be guesswork trying to trace the contact paths in the two week bandwidth of the virus.
Sorry to be stating or restating the obvious, but I didn't get to sing with any choirs this past weekend.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
Personally, I think contact tracing off of positive tests is a fools errand. The two main reasons for this are the high false negatives as well as the rapid spread with long latency to detection. Early on or in reference to a small area or location it may have some value, but not much on a larger scale.
In my opinion, the majority of testing resources should be put towards antibody testing and ensuring a person becomes immune after having it. A person found to have recovered can return to work and/or help the vulnerable. There’s all this discussion about phasing the economy back into operation and this is how you do it in my opinion. At the same time, we keep the vulnerable locked down as herd immunity builds.
Quote: Haven't some of the newer testing (the 15 or 5 minute ones) lowered the error rates? I hope so.
Overall I agree with what you're saying. I think its spot on if testing is not accurate enough.
The million $$ question will be how quickly can they roll out anti-body testing vs nasal swab? I read where Mayo and UofM are already doing this but to what degree? Scale?
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