01-24-2019, 08:35 PM
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
My argument is that it shouldn't. Even 2nd and 10 should a be run most of the time. You have a decent chance of getting a pass defense and if you can break off a 6 yard run, you're now in a manageable 3rd down.@MaroonBells said:
depends on how 1st down went is driving the 2nd down numbers IMO...@medaille said:
Here's our run-pass % by down:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/t...splits.htm
(Click on "All Vikings Plays on 1st Down", etc.)
1st: 55.6% Pass / 44.4% Run
2nd: 63.2% Pass / 36.8% Run
3rd: 85.2% Pass / 14.8% Run
4th: 71.4% Pass / 28.6% Run And there's the problem. 1st down is OK. 3rd down is OK. 4th down is irrelevant. But that 2nd down breakdown should be reversed, and then some.
Running the ball is a necessary part of offense. Running the football is valuable even if it doesn't gain anything. It keeps defenses honest, it sets up other things and and helps "pace" the offensive line. So if you're going to have any hope at all of balance, you have to do it on 2nd down.
Here's the way I see it: 1st down is the grab bag. It's the only down when the defense is not necessarily playing you situationally. Ideally, it will break down 50/50 to keep defenses on their toes. And since 3rd down will almost always be a pass, to have any hope at all of balance, your runs have to outnumber your passes on 2nd down by the same amount.
Not only did our passes outnumber our runs on 1st down AND 2nd down, we actually passed more on 2nd down than 1st, which is insanity IMO.