so then the question remains, how much and for how long do you stay on the wash rinse repeat cycle and not make a real swing for draft positioning and a rebuild for the future?
I feel like we've been here before with AD, when he was churning and burning he was good enough to keep us from drafting high enough to really get impact players in those first rounds ( assuming somebody doesnt fuck it up and take they next troy williamson or other mis-informed selection ) we also have to realize that its not just round 1 that gets a better shot, its every subsequent round, including the second that gets us in striking distance of jumping up and taking late first rounder that slips through and getting that coveted 5th year. yes they are all crap shoots, but there is value in higher draft selections and I think with Kirk, we are not ever going to suck, we are going to be just good enough to draft 18-25 in most years. its crazy, when I look at KC in the pocket, not under duress, I see Lombardis. when i seem him pressured quickly or even designed roll outs and such, its like I am looking at my little brother trying to get away from my other brother, un-natural and frightened, there just isnt that smooth athletic trait to his mobility.
but he is durable, but with Mannion gone, that isnt as big of a plus as it once was. =)
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
...
Just read an article that pretty much argues the same point I've been making for a while now. You can find it HERE. Some highlights....
____
There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011, the year the NFL changed the collective bargaining agreement to set a wage scale for rookie deals, making it extremely affordable to draft a quarterback. These 38 first round quarterbacks have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7. Only one of those 38 quarterbacks led their team to a Super Bowl victory.
Most believe the best way to win in the NFL is to draft a quarterback in the first round and win while he is playing on his rookie deal. It absolutely has been drilled into our heads. Despite that, the trend is that older quarterbacks have taken their teams deeper into the playoffs.
There is so much talk around the league about drafting and developing quarterbacks, about taking advantage of the rookie window, that we’ve ignored the fact that this strategy not only hasn’t been very successful, but that the opposite strategy has actually seen far more recent success.
____
If you read the entire article and see the data he uses to support his point, it makes a lot of sense. To me, the lesson seems to be, sure draft a QB high, and while he's on his rookie contract, build up your roster. And if that young QB doesn't take you to the promise land (data says it's extremely unlikely he will), then bring in a veteran QB to finish the job. Because....
Of these 38 quarterbacks, 10 are still on their rookie deal, so set them aside. Of the other 28, only 11 (39%) were even given a second deal with the team that drafted them.
I posted this maybe a month ago. The list of which guys won SBs since 2011 is an incredibly small sample size and not all that helpful. I think the most obvious strategy here is get an elite QB. Brady and Manning were both available and brought SBs. Brady and Mahomes account for almost half the SBs since then. The list of low cost QBs is Flacco, Wilson, Foles, Mahomes. The list of can you win with a rookie contract QB is Flacco, Wilson and Mahomes. Can you win with an old non-elite free agent QB, the list is Foles and Stafford.
You look at the record of the first round draft picks, it's not great. To me that means don't trade a shit ton to move up, because there's a good chance of busting even at the top. I think it means don't just throw your rookie QB into the game, because there's a good chance they'll suck in the game. Play your best QB. Take multiple shots over time when QBs fall to near where you are. I think you'll know by year 2 or 3 if you've got someone special or not. If not, trade them and recoup picks. The one study that I'm not seeing is "How hard is it to get a Prescott, Carr, Cousins in the draft?" These are guys that came in on a rookie deal performed pretty well and got to about the playoff fringe. Then they got older, more expensive, and they still didn't get across the line. If you keep drafting every other year on average, can you keep playing guys on their rookie deal that are taking you to the playoffs, while you try and get the next Mahomes?
Quote: The rookie wage scale occurred in 2011, so it’s a pretty small sample size.
This is the list of SB winning QBs since 2011:- Eli Manning
- Joe Flacco
- Russell Wilson
- Tom Brady (4x)
- Peyton Manning
- Nick Foles
- Patrick Mahomes (2x)
- Matthew Stafford
From my memory, so maybe there’s errors, but Wilson and Mahomes are the only rookie wage scale QBs to win the SB. Mahomes had a cap hit of $33M in 2022 which was his first year where he had “big” money as his long deal had a couple years of low cap hits. Flacco won on his rookie contract, but his rookie contract was pre-wage scale (his cap hit was 5.7M out of 120M cap). Foles was a backup who wasn’t making much money and his supporting roster was build around Wentz’s rookie contract. Do with that what you will.
Quote:@ medaille said:
@ FLVike said:
What would you rather have;Kirk Cousins or a one-in-a-million shot at the Superbowl?
Random Factoids
# of SBs: 57
# of SBs won by a first round QB: 32
# of 1st round QBs who’ve won a SB: 20
# of 1st round QBs: 187
# of Total QBs drafted 1067
Odds on any given 1st round QB winning at least
one SB: 10.7%
Odds of any given SB being won by a 1st round
QB: 56%
32 SBs have been split by 187 first round QBs
The remaining 25 SBs have been split by the 880 non 1st
round QBs + more that were undrafted (namely Kurt Warner)
I'm not sure how to break it down on Kirk vs random 1st rounder over the next 3 years ('24-'26).
Just read an article that pretty much argues the same point I've been making for a while now. You can find it HERE. Some highlights....
____
There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011, the year the NFL changed the collective bargaining agreement to set a wage scale for rookie deals, making it extremely affordable to draft a quarterback. These 38 first round quarterbacks have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7. Only one of those 38 quarterbacks led their team to a Super Bowl victory.
Most believe the best way to win in the NFL is to draft a quarterback in the first round and win while he is playing on his rookie deal. It absolutely has been drilled into our heads. Despite that, the trend is that older quarterbacks have taken their teams deeper into the playoffs.
There is so much talk around the league about drafting and developing quarterbacks, about taking advantage of the rookie window, that we’ve ignored the fact that this strategy not only hasn’t been very successful, but that the opposite strategy has actually seen far more recent success.
____
If you read the entire article and see the data he uses to support his point, it makes a lot of sense. To me, the lesson seems to be, sure draft a QB high, and while he's on his rookie contract, build up your roster. And if that young QB doesn't take you to the promise land (data says it's extremely unlikely he will), then bring in a veteran QB to finish the job. Because....
Of these 38 quarterbacks, 10 are still on their rookie deal, so set them aside. Of the other 28, only 11 (39%) were even given a second deal with the team that drafted them.
So this is saying... Stats can be twisted however you want to use them. I think the key delimiter is the time frame. MB only includes the last 10-11 years. But in the last 20 years, brady has a huge chunk of the superbowls.
So lies, damn lies and statistics.
Quote: @greediron said:
@ medaille said:
@ FLVike said:
What would you rather have;Kirk Cousins or a one-in-a-million shot at the Superbowl?
Random Factoids
# of SBs: 57
# of SBs won by a first round QB: 32
# of 1st round QBs who’ve won a SB: 20
# of 1st round QBs: 187
# of Total QBs drafted 1067
Odds on any given 1st round QB winning at least
one SB: 10.7%
Odds of any given SB being won by a 1st round
QB: 56%
32 SBs have been split by 187 first round QBs
The remaining 25 SBs have been split by the 880 non 1st
round QBs + more that were undrafted (namely Kurt Warner)
I'm not sure how to break it down on Kirk vs random 1st rounder over the next 3 years ('24-'26).
Just read an article that pretty much argues the same point I've been making for a while now. You can find it HERE. Some highlights....
____
There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011, the year the NFL changed the collective bargaining agreement to set a wage scale for rookie deals, making it extremely affordable to draft a quarterback. These 38 first round quarterbacks have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7. Only one of those 38 quarterbacks led their team to a Super Bowl victory.
Most believe the best way to win in the NFL is to draft a quarterback in the first round and win while he is playing on his rookie deal. It absolutely has been drilled into our heads. Despite that, the trend is that older quarterbacks have taken their teams deeper into the playoffs.
There is so much talk around the league about drafting and developing quarterbacks, about taking advantage of the rookie window, that we’ve ignored the fact that this strategy not only hasn’t been very successful, but that the opposite strategy has actually seen far more recent success.
____
If you read the entire article and see the data he uses to support his point, it makes a lot of sense. To me, the lesson seems to be, sure draft a QB high, and while he's on his rookie contract, build up your roster. And if that young QB doesn't take you to the promise land (data says it's extremely unlikely he will), then bring in a veteran QB to finish the job. Because....
Of these 38 quarterbacks, 10 are still on their rookie deal, so set them aside. Of the other 28, only 11 (39%) were even given a second deal with the team that drafted them.
So this is saying... Stats can be twisted however you want to use them. I think the key delimiter is the time frame. MB only includes the last 10-11 years. But in the last 20 years, brady has a huge chunk of the superbowls.
So lies, damn lies and statistics.
The whole point of that article was that there isn't much proof that teams with QBs on their cheap, 1st contract win Super Bowls. The CBA that made drafting 1st round QBs much more affordable started in 2011. That's why the data starts there.
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