02-07-2018, 05:37 PM
Quote: @medaille said:
I agree on the luck vs skill part, true tier 1 guys often have the same tools as the tier 2 guys, but they just know how to use them better. they dont stare down receivers prior to making a risky throw, they dont make predictable throws into tight coverage. They may make the same types of throws, but true elite level QBs know how to and do a much better job of disguising those throws and using their eyes to move the defenders off those routes. Tier 2 and lower guys dont do the little things or lack the moxie to be able to consistently make those riskier throws without a large share turning into turnovers. This is why I think Case is a tier 3 type guy, he lacks the physical tools to make those throws, he does at times lock onto targets, and he still attempts the throws, I think this year was a situation where a tier 3 guy got really lucky and thats why I see anything over 20 for Case is to much.@AllBS said:
WTF moments and legendary play is VERY closely related to dumb luck. A lot of tier 1 and tier 2 QB's are only separated by their propensity to have dumb luck follow them around. Just a couple more random, dumb luck plays and the careers of many tier 2 QB's would look very different. If Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and Mathew Stafford got the same amount of dumb luck A. Rodgers has received, I think they'd be looked at as tier 1 QBs as well. All can chuck the rock for 4,000 plus yards and lead a team from behind. Dumb luck just hasn't shown it likes them as much on Hail Mary type plays as it does Rodgers. Eli Manning - was he a tier 1 QB or damn lucky tier 2 QB in his prime? I would have selected Payton over Eli, 100 times out of 100 times. To this day, I don't see Eli as ever being a tier 1 QB. But he has the "bling" in the argument to shut me up.
Maybe Cousins is a tier 2 QB or he's an unlucky tier 1 guy in a dis-functional organization? Today, paying $25-$27 million for a tier 2 QB seems like a gross overpayment. But you can almost guarantee that most of the tier 1 guys will be getting paid north of $30 million very soon. Then you can look at it and say Rodgers at $30-$32 million per vs. Cousins at $25-$27 million per. It just seems like we are stuck with the mindset that tier 1 guys make $25 million per and that's not going to change. It will and soon. I disagree on the luck statement. I think guys get lucky for periods of time,
maybe even a full season, but guys who are consistently lucky make their own
luck. They make plays that may look
risky, but they know something that makes it is less risky than it seems, so
the odds are in their favor. Lesser QBs can’t
see all the risks, so the odds aren’t in their favor. Also teammates who believe in their QB perform
better. A lot of what made Favre so
great was that his teammates knew at any given moment he would launch the ball
their way and expect them to make the play, and they would rise to the occasion. With lesser QBs they will often loaf just a
little bit or be surprised when the ball comes their way and the pass is incomplete.
Totally agree about the salary cap though, but lesser QBs
will still get paid too much for their value.
for the record, IMO Sam and Teddy should see a tier 4 type contract with incentives. base salaries of about 10-12 million with another 8-10 million available in incentives based on playing and success.
