Quote: @"Skodin" said:
You are making points for me, costs are going up in China and the base that built their country is being built somewhere else. The problem is their middle class growth won't be able to keep up the cost of massive aging population (which is terminal) especially for an economy propped up Enron style.
China doesn't have "Plenty of Food". They have to hoard food at this point, they have been a net importer of food for the last 20 years. They import more dairy, soy, corn, wheat, than any other country. China needs our soybeans as it costs 30% more to purchase domestically (higher labor inputs). They have critical issues with phosphate supplies which is the key fertilizer component the Chinese have had a considerable control over until the last 3,4 years. Their arable land has shrunk over the years due to
Climate Change
Excessive Fertilizer usage
They will be food importers forever with higher costs domestically than in the US. Their yields get worse by the year which only be excaberated by the impacts of climate change. Chinese history doesn't look too good regarding food and famine and with a return back to a "one man show", there is very little reason to doubt they will escape another food crisis.
The reason why China has this stranglehold on clean energy tech? Because we have been fighting about its future for 2 decades domestically and during that time China used its cheap labor and even cheaper money to establish global relationships. They exported tech, people, and money into emerging markets while the US sold bombs. Maybe if we took that market as seriously as they did 15 plus years ago, we would own that market now too. Domestic production will increase due to policies like the Inflation Reductions Act which incentive tax equity investors with greater values due to domestic product.
This is how the US phases out Chinese importance on this market, become a leader and use it for trade backed by global organizations that are driving clean energy investments. Clean energy was an opportunity for us 20 years ago. We had the money, the tech, the brains, and the influence, but we couldn't ween ourselves off those large oil and gas profits. Luckily, we still have time to get out a head of this.
China also has a major problem in the technology of the future, semiconductors. Unless you somehow know better than US policy, China is on an island with the inability to tap into an ecosystem to produce mid to high quality grade microchips. Which means if they want to keep up with us on the tech front, they will have to buy from us (Korea, Japan, Taiwan included). A 90nm chip is bottom of the barrel and holds value but is the worst place to be a leader of in this chip arms race.
Ok. I'll play along. Seems like we're talking about two issues here. China and "Clean Energy". Responding in two parts.
China first. I've been going to China since the days when all Western visitors stayed at the Friendship Hall just across from Tianamen Square. In those days, there would be a bunch of people in the lobby reading newspapers. When a Westerner would leave the hotel, one of those people was tasked with following you for the day. Obviously, the surveillance methods have changed over the years but the principal is the same. I think if you read what I wrote above, you'll find that I said that China "has access" to plenty of food. That is an unequivocal truth. They have willing trade partners in Countries such as Brazil that produce twice their domestic consumption of food. This includes soy beans which are a staple of Chinese cuisine (tofu). They have the purchasing power to buy what they can't source within the country. In terms of food/crops, you do realize that a large swath of the Country still uses manual plows pulled by Oxen don't you? China and India are the two largest Ag Equipment markets in the World right now as China modernizes it's agriculture business. Increasing technology in planting, irrigation and modern soil management methods will continue to help build domestic production as China makes more of it's land tillable and better utilizes it's land. China's climate isn't all that dissimilar from the US. They run about 0.3 degrees C higher on aggregate across the year.
China technology. China made a commitment to semiconductor manufacture in 2014 as part of their 10 year plan. Everything in China is done on 5 and 10 year plans. In terms of raw electronic components, my company purchased virtually zero components from China prior to that. This year, we're running about 12% of our electronic components are manufactured in China. We track Chinese sourced components as we do a fair amount of business with the US Government in secure applications some of the time. We are required to be aware and report potential security issues related to those components. That's pretty impressive going from zero to 12% in 9 years with two of those years being during Covid. I haven't reviewed some of our newer products currently in design but I wouldn't be surprised to see that percentage grow to 15 to 18% next year particularly with the supply chain issues at present. Many of those parts are sole source due to capability and footprint so you can't just go buy these components from anybody. As you pointed out, they aren't providing the most complex designs at present but certainly have grown their capabilities dramatically and have the ability to "access" the technology necessary to provide higher capability, higher density components as they go.
Wasn't quite sure where you were going with China's "aging population". The median age in the US is 38.5 years. The median age in China is 38.4 years. China has a concept of "filial piety" where it is culturally expected that parents move in with their children as they age to allow the children to care for them. Can you imagine our entitled youth doing that en masse?
Quote: @"Skodin" said:
You are making points for me, costs are going up in China and the base that built their country is being built somewhere else. The problem is their middle class growth won't be able to keep up the cost of massive aging population (which is terminal) especially for an economy propped up Enron style.
China doesn't have "Plenty of Food". They have to hoard food at this point, they have been a net importer of food for the last 20 years. They import more dairy, soy, corn, wheat, than any other country. China needs our soybeans as it costs 30% more to purchase domestically (higher labor inputs). They have critical issues with phosphate supplies which is the key fertilizer component the Chinese have had a considerable control over until the last 3,4 years. Their arable land has shrunk over the years due to
Climate Change
Excessive Fertilizer usage
They will be food importers forever with higher costs domestically than in the US. Their yields get worse by the year which only be excaberated by the impacts of climate change. Chinese history doesn't look too good regarding food and famine and with a return back to a "one man show", there is very little reason to doubt they will escape another food crisis.
The reason why China has this stranglehold on clean energy tech? Because we have been fighting about its future for 2 decades domestically and during that time China used its cheap labor and even cheaper money to establish global relationships. They exported tech, people, and money into emerging markets while the US sold bombs. Maybe if we took that market as seriously as they did 15 plus years ago, we would own that market now too. Domestic production will increase due to policies like the Inflation Reductions Act which incentive tax equity investors with greater values due to domestic product.
This is how the US phases out Chinese importance on this market, become a leader and use it for trade backed by global organizations that are driving clean energy investments. Clean energy was an opportunity for us 20 years ago. We had the money, the tech, the brains, and the influence, but we couldn't ween ourselves off those large oil and gas profits. Luckily, we still have time to get out a head of this.
China also has a major problem in the technology of the future, semiconductors. Unless you somehow know better than US policy, China is on an island with the inability to tap into an ecosystem to produce mid to high quality grade microchips. Which means if they want to keep up with us on the tech front, they will have to buy from us (Korea, Japan, Taiwan included). A 90nm chip is bottom of the barrel and holds value but is the worst place to be a leader of in this chip arms race.
"Clean Energy".
As I said, Chinese has cornered the market on rare earths and solar / turbine manufacture. Virtually every EV in the US utilizes batteries manufactured in China or at bare minimum utilizes Lithium from China. You talk about American technology. What's the driving range of an EV without a battery. Or...how efficient is a Wind Turbine without Chinese turbine blades. Or solar...without Chinese solar panels. And the pretense that "clean energy" is clean is almost nonsensical at this point. The US puts approximately 140 million tons of waste in landfills every year. It is projected that used turbines will amount to 40 million tons a year as those currently deployed are replaced or phased out. Does that sound clean to you? The Sierra Club (hardly a right wing source) estimates that 1 million birds are killed every year due to Wind Turbines. Most people don't realize the tips of those blades can move up to 180 miles per hour. The Wind farms have affected the migratory patterns of many birds particularly in the Plain State flyovers. A single dead bird near a conventional fossil power station will draw a fine and register as a violation. Wind Turbines...not so much...because you know...they're clean and environmentally friendly. And now we have dead Whales washing up around the offshore Wind farms. Does that sound environmentally responsible to you? And where do you think those large lithium based EV batteries go to die? That environmental nightmare will be fast approaching.
I'm with you on clean energy but we have to be dispassionate about the benefits and the downside...instead of this nonsensical safe, clean and cheap mantra. Let's solve the technical issues for sourcing and disposal. EV's manufacturers should have a solid plan on file for disposal / recycling and personally I believe that cost should be reflected in the purchase price of the vehicle but we won't do that because it makes our "green" vehicles more expensive. We'd rather hide our heads in the sand than actually be honest about where the technology stands. The only way to fix a problem is to acknowledge there is a problem. When you start basing decisions on ideology instead of facts, you start doing stupid things....like building a cost sensitive solar panel factory (Solyndra) in one of the most expensive parts of the Country (Santa Clara) and backing it with taxpayer funds. Given the required price point, who could have possibly seen that was destined for failure? lol. Made you feel good for a while I'm guessing. In terms of turbines, I personally think they're dangerous to the environment but there is at least some work being started on the disposal side to utilize different materials and recycle or process for fill in roadwork similar to efforts to use tire materials.
As I said above, the best and cleanest emerging technology is Small Nuclear Reactors (SMR) that can be built in a factory and shipped to a site. Since they're all the same, maintenance can be standardized. Since they're small and contained, you can control any radiation issues. You can place them in rural towns so that you don't need to depend on the power grid or for many remote towns can finally have a reliable power source. They've made great strides at reprocessing nuclear waste as well. I don't really care what route we go, but we need to be honest about the technology and the associated sourcing issues as well as cost through the life cycle.
Quote: @"AGRforever" said:
@"Waterboy" said:
@"AGRforever" said:
@"Waterboy" said:
@"JimmyinSD" said:
@"AGRforever" said:
@"StickyBun" said:
@"purplefaithful" said:
@"StickyBun" said:
@"purplefaithful" said:
I spent about 4 minutes watching the town hall last night...Rehashed tirades.
Shame on a system that (at best) gives us two octogenarians going at it again.
He's nuts. Yet CNN hosts a 'town hall' because they know people that love him and hate him will watch. Whores.
He's a repugnant piece of shit, but Biden and the democratic economic bullshit is tortuous. Please let DeSantis run so I can vote Republican again. He's not perfect, but I can't take another 4 years of economic turmoil under the Spendocrats (see, I made a funny about democrats!) :p Watching Biden walk anywhere and I'm just waiting for him to fall. He's so feeble.
The red train may have left the station already. I think your boy is waiting too long. I dont like a lot of whats happening in FL @Sticky. On a whole bunch of issues.
If he does run, I would have to scrutinize his stand a bunch b4 he could get my vote.
I've cooled on him quite a bit, but he'd be a better candidate than that pos on CNN last night.
He'd appeal to a broader group I suspect.
If I have to chose between Biden or Trump in 2024, I won't vote.
You could vote 3rd party and try to actually get a 3rd or 4th party with some relevance.
I am afraid this election is to important to stand on the sideline or throw votes away. I too want to see a viable third party in the near future, but this election has to be so overwhelmingly RED that nobody would even think it possible that it could have went the other way. We cant have 4 more years of the debt piling on like we have seen the last 2. This thing is spiraling so fast and I dont think its sheer incompetence that has the country heading towards staggering inflation or out right bankruptcy, I am not a big conspiracy guy, but I just have a hard time believing that all this bull shit is by accident.
Jimmy, anyone with a brain should be a conspiracy theorist at this point. All of this is about Libs controlling our govt in perpetuity and the power elite to become even more powerful. This is the reason behind the green agenda, immigration, mass media collusion, a puppet playing a leader, ballot harvesting, and incompetence so bad that it isn't explainable. Only people that are pure lemmings, generally uninformed, or stand to benefit from the destruction of the middle class can't see this at this point.
It's ok to take off the tinfoil hat every now and then. If Republican want to stay meaningful they need to be attractive to the less then 30 crowd. Right now they aren't doing anything for them. They keep pandering to their aging base. It will be the end of them eventually.
Yeah, it doesn't matter that the solutions posed by the less than 30 crowd will be their own undoing. It doesn't matter that their opinions are derived from what those in power want them to believe. What's happening now will damage the quality of life for generations and likely into perpetuity. We're seeing an empire dying prematurely because people are too stupid to know that you can't add 60 trillion to the debt without severe consequences. Anybody with a brain sees this country circling the drain right now. This isn't a Republican party issue. This is an issue with people thinking there really is a society that can be built on everything being given away for free. T he typical 30 year old and younger shouldn't really even be allowed to vote as they're clueless as to what's going on. Once they get out of mom and dad's house, they tend to see things a little differently. Of course, they won't have a house when they have kids, so I guess there's that.
This is why people don't take you seriously.
1. Debit isn't a Republican issue because THEY'RE WORSE THEN DEMOCRATS on it. Look at all the times our debt has significantly risen over the years. Its during Republican administrations. Heck, Regan invented modern day deficit spending.
2. Really??? 30 year olds shouldn't vote? Is that because they disagree with you? They're either adults or they're not. Believing there's a segment of our population that is old enough to pay taxes, old enough to drive a car, old enough to have children, old enough to first a war and on and on but is to stupid to vote has to be the most ignorant thing I've read on this site in quite awhile.
One other thing, until Social Security and Medicare are dealt with, it really makes no difference. Both sides are culpable. Republicans at least have a goal to spend less and tax less which makes them far advantageous to the alternative if still leaving a lot to be desired.
Quote: @"Skodin" said:
@"
Are you blaming NATIVE AMERICANS at 3% of the population for the Red State welfare problems? OMG lololol
How many Native Americans live in Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky?
If anything they are underfunded as a group particularly when it comes to health care and infrastructure. You know the two things that help a society survive and grow
Wow, Cherry pick much. You pick the poorer States with virtually no Native American population. As I said above, some of those States have large Native populations or large military installations. Ft Campbell, home of the 101st Airborne, is in Kentucky (actually straddles the border with Tennessee but paymaster is in Kentucky)....population around 250,000. Those people are paid so Federal tax dollars going out...is this the welfare you're talking about. Is paying the military Welfare?
What actually drew me to this table the first time I saw it was Alaska...a State that regularly returns money to its residents. I couldn't figure out how they were on the list of taxpayer burden to the Feds...and so I looked it up. About 20% of Alaska residents are native living in remote locations in Alaska requiring services which are paid by the Feds. How much Federal tax do you think the average Native American who survives on Hunting and Fishing and bartering of good and services pays in taxes every year? Would zero be a good guess? How much does it cost to have the Feds maintain services to many of these remote outposts including food, medical, access, etc. in harsh conditions. In many of those States, the primary Welfare burden is in Democratic run Cities. But sure...let's blame Republican run States for that shortfall. New Mexico, Oklahoma are also above 10% as well. Even South Dakota is up around 9% if memory serves me. That's all I said...the chart was deliberately intended to be misleading so you on the left could feel good about your superior intellect and policies.
Instead of finger pointing, how about we acknowledge there are a lot of good and bad ideas on both sides of the aisle. Everything doesn't have to be one or the other.
Quote: @"AGRforever" said:
1. Debit isn't a Republican issue because THEY'RE WORSE THEN DEMOCRATS on it. Look at all the times our debt has significantly risen over the years. Its during Republican administrations. Heck, Regan invented modern day deficit spending.
2. Really??? 30 year olds shouldn't vote? Is that because they disagree with you? They're either adults or they're not. Believing there's a segment of our population that is old enough to pay taxes, old enough to drive a car, old enough to have children, old enough to first a war and on and on but is to stupid to vote has to be the most ignorant thing I've read on this site in quite awhile.
Actually, that's not really true. Clinton and Bush both did pretty well when measuring debt vs GDP. Bush's debt jumped up in his last two years as Democrats took control of Congress and Tarp 1 was approved (and disbursed in Obama's term). Obama was by far the great spender with increases not seen since the build up for WW2. This is especially true given that he had a fillibuster proof majority in Congress Trump and the Democrats didn't do much to bring spending under control and than obviously everything changed with the Pandemic for both spending and GDP. Obama and Biden did the exact same thing in discussing the deficit. Obama came in after the bank bailout and pushed the Stimulus and other spending bills through under the auspices of stabilizing the economy. (Honestly, TARP 1 solved the banking crisis...the rest was just about spending priorities). Nancy Pelosi said as much. Obama than utilized that drunken sailor spending as the baseline and would talk about deficit reduction...which was really just a way of saying we're not spending as much as the outrageous amount we did in times of crisis. Biden does the same today...talking about Deficit reduction and comparing against Covid metrics. If the crisis is truly over, shouldn't the spending binge be as well? A lot of that emergency Covid relief went to non Covid expenses. Time for a Balanced Budget Amendment just like most States operate. ![[Image: Presidents%20and%20the%20debt_2.JPG]](https://crfb.org/sites/default/files/Presidents%20and%20the%20debt_2.JPG)
Quote: @"badgervike" said:
@"Skodin" said:
You are making points for me, costs are going up in China and the base that built their country is being built somewhere else. The problem is their middle class growth won't be able to keep up the cost of massive aging population (which is terminal) especially for an economy propped up Enron style.
China doesn't have "Plenty of Food". They have to hoard food at this point, they have been a net importer of food for the last 20 years. They import more dairy, soy, corn, wheat, than any other country. China needs our soybeans as it costs 30% more to purchase domestically (higher labor inputs). They have critical issues with phosphate supplies which is the key fertilizer component the Chinese have had a considerable control over until the last 3,4 years. Their arable land has shrunk over the years due to
Climate Change
Excessive Fertilizer usage
They will be food importers forever with higher costs domestically than in the US. Their yields get worse by the year which only be excaberated by the impacts of climate change. Chinese history doesn't look too good regarding food and famine and with a return back to a "one man show", there is very little reason to doubt they will escape another food crisis.
The reason why China has this stranglehold on clean energy tech? Because we have been fighting about its future for 2 decades domestically and during that time China used its cheap labor and even cheaper money to establish global relationships. They exported tech, people, and money into emerging markets while the US sold bombs. Maybe if we took that market as seriously as they did 15 plus years ago, we would own that market now too. Domestic production will increase due to policies like the Inflation Reductions Act which incentive tax equity investors with greater values due to domestic product.
This is how the US phases out Chinese importance on this market, become a leader and use it for trade backed by global organizations that are driving clean energy investments. Clean energy was an opportunity for us 20 years ago. We had the money, the tech, the brains, and the influence, but we couldn't ween ourselves off those large oil and gas profits. Luckily, we still have time to get out a head of this.
China also has a major problem in the technology of the future, semiconductors. Unless you somehow know better than US policy, China is on an island with the inability to tap into an ecosystem to produce mid to high quality grade microchips. Which means if they want to keep up with us on the tech front, they will have to buy from us (Korea, Japan, Taiwan included). A 90nm chip is bottom of the barrel and holds value but is the worst place to be a leader of in this chip arms race.
Ok. I'll play along. Seems like we're talking about two issues here. China and "Clean Energy". Responding in two parts.
China first. I've been going to China since the days when all Western visitors stayed at the Friendship Hall just across from Tianamen Square. In those days, there would be a bunch of people in the lobby reading newspapers. When a Westerner would leave the hotel, one of those people was tasked with following you for the day. Obviously, the surveillance methods have changed over the years but the principal is the same. I think if you read what I wrote above, you'll find that I said that China "has access" to plenty of food. That is an unequivocal truth. They have willing trade partners in Countries such as Brazil that produce twice their domestic consumption of food. This includes soy beans which are a staple of Chinese cuisine (tofu). They have the purchasing power to buy what they can't source within the country. In terms of food/crops, you do realize that a large swath of the Country still uses manual plows pulled by Oxen don't you? China and India are the two largest Ag Equipment markets in the World right now as China modernizes it's agriculture business. Increasing technology in planting, irrigation and modern soil management methods will continue to help build domestic production as China makes more of it's land tillable and better utilizes it's land. China's climate isn't all that dissimilar from the US. They run about 0.3 degrees C higher on aggregate across the year.
China technology. China made a commitment to semiconductor manufacture in 2014 as part of their 10 year plan. Everything in China is done on 5 and 10 year plans. In terms of raw electronic components, my company purchased virtually zero components from China prior to that. This year, we're running about 12% of our electronic components are manufactured in China. We track Chinese sourced components as we do a fair amount of business with the US Government in secure applications some of the time. We are required to be aware and report potential security issues related to those components. That's pretty impressive going from zero to 12% in 9 years with two of those years being during Covid. I haven't reviewed some of our newer products currently in design but I wouldn't be surprised to see that percentage grow to 15 to 18% next year particularly with the supply chain issues at present. Many of those parts are sole source due to capability and footprint so you can't just go buy these components from anybody. As you pointed out, they aren't providing the most complex designs at present but certainly have grown their capabilities dramatically and have the ability to "access" the technology necessary to provide higher capability, higher density components as they go.
Wasn't quite sure where you were going with China's "aging population". The median age in the US is 38.5 years. The median age in China is 38.4 years. China has a concept of "filial piety" where it is culturally expected that parents move in with their children as they age to allow the children to care for them. Can you imagine our entitled youth doing that en masse?
I didn't realize they were as behind in land management. What type of yields are they seeing out of their beans?
Quote: @"AGRforever" said:
@"badgervike" said:
@"Skodin" said:
You are making points for me, costs are going up in China and the base that built their country is being built somewhere else. The problem is their middle class growth won't be able to keep up the cost of massive aging population (which is terminal) especially for an economy propped up Enron style.
China doesn't have "Plenty of Food". They have to hoard food at this point, they have been a net importer of food for the last 20 years. They import more dairy, soy, corn, wheat, than any other country. China needs our soybeans as it costs 30% more to purchase domestically (higher labor inputs). They have critical issues with phosphate supplies which is the key fertilizer component the Chinese have had a considerable control over until the last 3,4 years. Their arable land has shrunk over the years due to
Climate Change
Excessive Fertilizer usage
They will be food importers forever with higher costs domestically than in the US. Their yields get worse by the year which only be excaberated by the impacts of climate change. Chinese history doesn't look too good regarding food and famine and with a return back to a "one man show", there is very little reason to doubt they will escape another food crisis.
The reason why China has this stranglehold on clean energy tech? Because we have been fighting about its future for 2 decades domestically and during that time China used its cheap labor and even cheaper money to establish global relationships. They exported tech, people, and money into emerging markets while the US sold bombs. Maybe if we took that market as seriously as they did 15 plus years ago, we would own that market now too. Domestic production will increase due to policies like the Inflation Reductions Act which incentive tax equity investors with greater values due to domestic product.
This is how the US phases out Chinese importance on this market, become a leader and use it for trade backed by global organizations that are driving clean energy investments. Clean energy was an opportunity for us 20 years ago. We had the money, the tech, the brains, and the influence, but we couldn't ween ourselves off those large oil and gas profits. Luckily, we still have time to get out a head of this.
China also has a major problem in the technology of the future, semiconductors. Unless you somehow know better than US policy, China is on an island with the inability to tap into an ecosystem to produce mid to high quality grade microchips. Which means if they want to keep up with us on the tech front, they will have to buy from us (Korea, Japan, Taiwan included). A 90nm chip is bottom of the barrel and holds value but is the worst place to be a leader of in this chip arms race.
Ok. I'll play along. Seems like we're talking about two issues here. China and "Clean Energy". Responding in two parts.
China first. I've been going to China since the days when all Western visitors stayed at the Friendship Hall just across from Tianamen Square. In those days, there would be a bunch of people in the lobby reading newspapers. When a Westerner would leave the hotel, one of those people was tasked with following you for the day. Obviously, the surveillance methods have changed over the years but the principal is the same. I think if you read what I wrote above, you'll find that I said that China "has access" to plenty of food. That is an unequivocal truth. They have willing trade partners in Countries such as Brazil that produce twice their domestic consumption of food. This includes soy beans which are a staple of Chinese cuisine (tofu). They have the purchasing power to buy what they can't source within the country. In terms of food/crops, you do realize that a large swath of the Country still uses manual plows pulled by Oxen don't you? China and India are the two largest Ag Equipment markets in the World right now as China modernizes it's agriculture business. Increasing technology in planting, irrigation and modern soil management methods will continue to help build domestic production as China makes more of it's land tillable and better utilizes it's land. China's climate isn't all that dissimilar from the US. They run about 0.3 degrees C higher on aggregate across the year.
China technology. China made a commitment to semiconductor manufacture in 2014 as part of their 10 year plan. Everything in China is done on 5 and 10 year plans. In terms of raw electronic components, my company purchased virtually zero components from China prior to that. This year, we're running about 12% of our electronic components are manufactured in China. We track Chinese sourced components as we do a fair amount of business with the US Government in secure applications some of the time. We are required to be aware and report potential security issues related to those components. That's pretty impressive going from zero to 12% in 9 years with two of those years being during Covid. I haven't reviewed some of our newer products currently in design but I wouldn't be surprised to see that percentage grow to 15 to 18% next year particularly with the supply chain issues at present. Many of those parts are sole source due to capability and footprint so you can't just go buy these components from anybody. As you pointed out, they aren't providing the most complex designs at present but certainly have grown their capabilities dramatically and have the ability to "access" the technology necessary to provide higher capability, higher density components as they go.
Wasn't quite sure where you were going with China's "aging population". The median age in the US is 38.5 years. The median age in China is 38.4 years. China has a concept of "filial piety" where it is culturally expected that parents move in with their children as they age to allow the children to care for them. Can you imagine our entitled youth doing that en masse?
I didn't realize they were as behind in land management. What type of yields are they seeing out of their beans?
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