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Tier 2 vs Tier 1 QBs
#21
Quote: @medaille said:
@AllBS said:
WTF moments and legendary play is VERY closely related to dumb luck.  A lot of tier 1 and tier 2 QB's are only separated by their propensity to have dumb luck follow them around.  Just a couple more random, dumb luck plays and the careers of many tier 2 QB's would look very different.  If Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and Mathew Stafford got the same amount of dumb luck A. Rodgers has received, I think they'd be looked at as tier 1 QBs as well.  All can chuck the rock for 4,000 plus yards and lead a team from behind.  Dumb luck just hasn't shown it likes them as much on Hail Mary type plays as it does Rodgers.  Eli Manning - was he a tier 1 QB or damn lucky tier 2 QB in his prime?  I would have selected Payton over Eli, 100 times out of 100 times.  To this day, I don't see Eli as ever being a tier 1 QB.  But he has the "bling" in the argument to shut me up.  

Maybe Cousins is a tier 2 QB or he's an unlucky tier 1 guy in a dis-functional organization?  Today, paying $25-$27 million for a tier 2 QB seems like a gross overpayment.  But you can almost guarantee that most of the tier 1 guys will be getting paid north of $30 million very soon.  Then you can look at it and say Rodgers at $30-$32 million per vs. Cousins at $25-$27 million per.  It just seems like we are stuck with the mindset that tier 1 guys make $25 million per and that's not going to change.  It will and soon.        
I disagree on the luck statement.  I think guys get lucky for periods of time,
maybe even a full season, but guys who are consistently lucky make their own
luck.  They make plays that may look
risky, but they know something that makes it is less risky than it seems, so
the odds are in their favor.  Lesser QBs can’t
see all the risks, so the odds aren’t in their favor.  Also teammates who believe in their QB perform
better.  A lot of what made Favre so
great was that his teammates knew at any given moment he would launch the ball
their way and expect them to make the play, and they would rise to the occasion.  With lesser QBs they will often loaf just a
little bit or be surprised when the ball comes their way and the pass is incomplete.


Totally agree about the salary cap though, but lesser QBs
will still get paid too much for their value.
I agree on the luck vs skill part,  true tier 1 guys often have the same tools as the tier 2 guys,  but they just know how to use them better.   they dont stare down receivers prior to making a risky throw,  they dont make predictable throws into tight coverage.  They may make the same types of throws,  but true elite level QBs know how to and do a much better job of disguising those throws and using their eyes to move the defenders off those routes.  Tier 2 and lower guys dont do the little things or lack the moxie to be able to consistently make those riskier throws without a large share turning into turnovers.  This is why I think Case is a tier 3 type guy,  he lacks the physical tools to make those throws,  he does at times lock onto targets, and he still attempts the throws,  I think this year was a situation where a tier 3 guy got really lucky and thats why I see anything over 20 for Case is to much.

for the record, IMO Sam and Teddy should see a tier 4 type contract with incentives.  base salaries of about 10-12 million with another 8-10 million available in incentives based on playing and success.
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#22
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@SmashmouthD said:
Would you rather have:

a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?

(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)

Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).
My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.


The difference being that you don't have to pay Bridgewater over $10M right now. If he proves healthy, then sure he's going to command a top dollar extension, but that isn't going to happen this spring. With Case, you have to give him market value for a healthy QB coming off a 13-3 season. That's going to be well over $10M. I just hope it's not us who does it.
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#23
A lot people  say   Rodgers is the best quality today   he has won 1 superb owl and in greenbayour I place them behind both the Vikings lions in talent with  Chicago gaining  outside of the media  there talent is Cleveland level  a great quality also needs  good and a few great teammates also 
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#24
Quote: @HappyViking said:
Does anyone remember just two short weeks ago when Case was considered to be way better than Foles?  Many "experts" picked the Vikes to  win in Philly because of Case.  My how things change in a hurry.  B)
For good reason though.  Foles threw for a 48% completion rate during the regular season.  He went nuts in the playoffs.
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#25
Quote: @StickyBun said:
Anything can happen in a one year scenario. Foles's career has been spotty before this, same with Keenum. Do we now expect Foles to perform like this and he's now an elite QB? Same with Keenum? Or are they more anomaly than rule? The odds and history will tell you the latter.

I want a QB that is Tier 1: the only guy I've seen close is Bradford. But he's a risk with that knee. 
And the one thing all these QB's have in common with bad seasons is Jeff Fisher and the Rams.
Bradford,Keenum, Foles, Geoff. 
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#26
Quote: @Kentis said:
Every QB the Vikings has ever employed have left me in tears!  B) 
seneca made you cry?
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#27
1-Bridgewater, if healthy
2-Sam, if healthy
3-Keenum

All good QB’s you can win with.  Sam is best if healthy really.  i put Teddy 1 because of upside. 
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