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TDN Best And Worst Picks Of The Vikings' Draft Class

JU
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https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/best-and-worst-of-minnesota-vikings-draft-class

Wonder if the author took into account the number of games (17) that Cook has missed so far...

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#1 · May 9, 5:04 PM
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Yeah, his rationalize for kind of bashing the Mattison pick is goofy. This crap about teams not getting the 'value' at where they've taken guys, but the author still likes the pick and player is silly to me. Do you like the player? Yes? Then its a good pick. Its all that is going to matter when its all said and done anyway.

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#2 · May 10, 3:52 AM
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Honest question...  what would people have thought if we had flip flopped our 3rd and 4th round picks?  Let's say after all those trade backs in the 3rd, we then drafted Dru Samia (OG) and then traded up in the 4th to take Alexander Mattison (RB)?  We would have made the same exact moves, but the players would have been switched.

If Spielman had done that, does it make anyone think about this a bit differently?  I get the sense that the complaining about the Mattison pick was partly due to frustration with all the trade backs and then we took a RB when fans thought we could have addressed a different position.

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#3 · May 10, 6:57 AM
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It actually reminds me of the "outrage" when we took Jerick McKinnon late in the 3rd round a few years ago...  we took who?  A wildcat QB out of Georgia Southern when we have Adrian Peterson on the roster???  That ended up being a good pick in hindsight.

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#4 · May 10, 6:59 AM
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@"Wetlander" said: Honest question...  what would people have thought if we had flip flopped our 3rd and 4th round picks?  Let's say after all those trade backs in the 3rd, we then drafted Dru Samia (OG) and then traded up in the 4th to take Alexander Mattison (RB)?  We would have made the same exact moves, but the players would have been switched.

If Spielman had done that, does it make anyone think about this a bit differently?  I get the sense that the complaining about the Mattison pick was partly due to frustration with all the trade backs and then we took a RB when fans thought we could have addressed a different position.



@"Wetlander" said:
It actually reminds me of the "outrage" when we took Jerick McKinnon late in the 3rd round a few years ago...  we took who?  A wildcat QB out of Georgia Southern when we have Adrian Peterson on the roster???  That ended up being a good pick in hindsight.

Both of these posts are exactly what I was thinking this morning. McKinnon was a surprise pick and he just signed a $30M contract. Also, if you switch Mattison and Samia the value LOOKS a little better. But value is more a perception than reality. 

Couple things. First, I love this player. I might be more excited about Mattison than even Bradbury. Second, I'm OK with reaching (if that's what you want to call the pick). Totally changed my mind about that, by the way. Back in the days of Michael Boireau and Willie Offord I hammered this team pretty hard for seemingly not having a clue about "consensus." You might think Willie Offord is a helluva a player. Fine. But if consensus says he's a 6th rounder, then don't take him in the freaking 3rd round. Playing fantasy has changed my mind about that completely. Whether you're an NFL GM or you're an armchair fantasy owner, if you trust your ability to evaluate, then identify the players you really believe in and try to get as many as possible. And you have to reach to do that. 

Now, here is where I get TDN's sort of "conflicted" take. It's not about the player, it's not about the reach. It's about the position. Your starting QB goes down, you lose the game. A starting wide goes down, defenses double the other and it gets very hard to pass the ball. Similar big problems if you lose a starting offensive lineman or a starting corner. The replacement gets targeted and exploited. Team is hobbled. 

But what happens if your starting back goes down? Really, not a lot. If we had to put in Mike Boone last year, would it have changed the outcome of a game? I kinda doubt it. Running the football is more about the scheme and the line than the back. So many times we see undrafted backups like Matt Brieda or CJ Anderson come in for starters and the team doesn't skip a beat. So that's my ONLY issue with this pick--a little high for a RB2. But very clearly picking at nits here. Not sure I've seen any "bashing" or "outrage." 

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#5 · May 10, 9:07 AM
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The value of a player in the draft might be 4th round pick for the other 31 teams.  But for the Vikings, they saw Mattison as a 3rd round pick due to his style of running and the fit he would be for the team.  You can't compare the players in generalized order, because every teams' needs and evaluations of players are different.

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#6 · May 10, 9:26 AM
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@"MaroonBells" said:

Both of these posts are exactly what I was thinking this morning. McKinnon was a surprise pick and he just signed a $30M contract. Also, if you switch Mattison and Samia the value LOOKS a little better. But value is more a perception than reality. 

Couple things. First, I love this player. I might be more excited about Mattison than even Bradbury. Second, I'm OK with reaching (if that's what you want to call the pick). Totally changed my mind about that, by the way. Back in the days of Michael Boireau and Willie Offord I hammered this team pretty hard for seemingly not having a clue about "consensus." You might think Willie Offord is a helluva a player. Fine. But if consensus says he's a 6th rounder, then don't take him in the freaking 3rd round. Playing fantasy has changed my mind about that completely. Whether you're an NFL GM or you're an armchair fantasy owner, if you trust your ability to evaluate, then identify the players you really believe in and try to get as many as possible. And you have to reach to do that. 

Now, here is where I get TDN's sort of "conflicted" take. It's not about the player, it's not about the reach. It's about the position. Your starting QB goes down, you lose the game. A starting wide goes down, defenses double the other and it gets very hard to pass the ball. Similar big problems if you lose a starting offensive lineman or a starting corner. The replacement gets targeted and exploited. Team is hobbled. 

But what happens if your starting back goes down? Really, not a lot. If we had to put in Mike Boone last year, would it have changed the outcome of a game? I kinda doubt it. Running the football is more about the scheme and the line than the back. So many times we see undrafted backups like Matt Brieda or CJ Anderson come in for starters and the team doesn't skip a beat. So that's my ONLY issue with this pick--a little high for a RB2. But very clearly picking at nits here. Not sure I've seen any "bashing" or "outrage." 


I've seen more than a few posts complaining that this pick was a reach...  outrage was probably too strong of a word (that's why I put it in quotes), but there have been a lot of people questioning the pick and sounding frustrated because they thought we should have drafted someone else.  Very similar reaction to when we drafted McKinnon.

I do think people would view the draft differently if those picks were flip flopped though.  Overall, I thought the Vikings did an excellent job of adding some talented players to the offense.  And I love what we did with the offensive line.  The Mattison pick was the cherry on top...  with Dalvin's injury history in the NFL, I think the Vikings looked at Mattison and viewed him as the last true 3-down RB in the late Day 2/3 tier of RBs.  That pick was all about making sure we have a guy that can carry the load if Dalvin gets hurt again...  and he'll form a nice 1-2 punch if Cook can stay healthy and deliver on his immense potential.

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#7 · May 10, 10:27 AM
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@"Wetlander" said:
@"MaroonBells" said:

Both of these posts are exactly what I was thinking this morning. McKinnon was a surprise pick and he just signed a $30M contract. Also, if you switch Mattison and Samia the value LOOKS a little better. But value is more a perception than reality. 

Couple things. First, I love this player. I might be more excited about Mattison than even Bradbury. Second, I'm OK with reaching (if that's what you want to call the pick). Totally changed my mind about that, by the way. Back in the days of Michael Boireau and Willie Offord I hammered this team pretty hard for seemingly not having a clue about "consensus." You might think Willie Offord is a helluva a player. Fine. But if consensus says he's a 6th rounder, then don't take him in the freaking 3rd round. Playing fantasy has changed my mind about that completely. Whether you're an NFL GM or you're an armchair fantasy owner, if you trust your ability to evaluate, then identify the players you really believe in and try to get as many as possible. And you have to reach to do that. 

Now, here is where I get TDN's sort of "conflicted" take. It's not about the player, it's not about the reach. It's about the position. Your starting QB goes down, you lose the game. A starting wide goes down, defenses double the other and it gets very hard to pass the ball. Similar big problems if you lose a starting offensive lineman or a starting corner. The replacement gets targeted and exploited. Team is hobbled. 

But what happens if your starting back goes down? Really, not a lot. If we had to put in Mike Boone last year, would it have changed the outcome of a game? I kinda doubt it. Running the football is more about the scheme and the line than the back. So many times we see undrafted backups like Matt Brieda or CJ Anderson come in for starters and the team doesn't skip a beat. So that's my ONLY issue with this pick--a little high for a RB2. But very clearly picking at nits here. Not sure I've seen any "bashing" or "outrage." 


I've seen more than a few posts complaining that this pick was a reach...  outrage was probably too strong of a word (that's why I put it in quotes), but there have been a lot of people questioning the pick and sounding frustrated because they thought we should have drafted someone else.  Very similar reaction to when we drafted McKinnon.

I do think people would view the draft differently if those picks were flip flopped though.  Overall, I thought the Vikings did an excellent job of adding some talented players to the offense.  And I love what we did with the offensive line.  The Mattison pick was the cherry on top...  with Dalvin's injury history in the NFL, I think the Vikings looked at Mattison and viewed him as the last true 3-down RB in the late Day 2/3 tier of RBs.  That pick was all about making sure we have a guy that can carry the load if Dalvin gets hurt again...  and he'll form a nice 1-2 punch if Cook can stay healthy and deliver on his immense potential.



Agree. If Mattison hits (and I think he will) and just one of those 7th rounders hits then Spielman is going to come out looking pretty good. Of course, we also have to watch those players taken between our original pick and the pick where we landed. Some really nice names in there. 

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#8 · May 10, 11:00 AM
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I’m quite sure Rick would’ve traded down into the 4th to take Mattison if he could have, he only had to drop 1 more spot!  B) 

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#9 · May 10, 12:31 PM
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So here's my take. This Draft didn't have 32 players with a 1st Round Grade. More like 14-16. Luckily, several teams reached and Minnesota landed one of those true 1st Round Grade kids at #18.

What made this Draft interesting was just how many players had a 2nd Round Grade. You could get a legitimate 2nd Round Talent deep into the 3rd Round.

Smith at #50 was great because he had a high 2nd Round Grade on him and could have gone in the late 1st.

But the chance to grab another steal was traded away...more than once. And the result was to get a kid that at best went where he was rated and at worst was a reach value-wise.

Spielman righted the ship after that with several value picks in Samia, Watts, Udo and both WRs. The LB from USC that makes Rey Maualuga look fast is a headscratcher. Epps and Boyd have some intriguing qualities.

But to leave all that value just sitting there in the 3rd is not something I can defend. 

Drafting human beings is an inexact science to say the least. But I bet we all agree that a Team that consistently reaches vs. the consensus grade ala the Raiders will almost always fail to win consistently.

So the consensus grade clearly has relevancy. Rick traded down from where he could have nabbed any number of players with a 2nd Round Grade. And then he did it again. And again. And again.

But all that movement just to land a possible reach that wasn't on any of our radars? Every single freaking one of us had a player we would have jumped up and down to get that was available with their original 3rd. Most of those players were available after the first trade down. A few were still on the board during the final two trades.

It's maddening. Oli Udoh may very well become a better OT than Chuma Edoga. But the percent chance Edoga becomes a quality Starter is significantly higher and he was just sitting there.

You can name at least one player at almost  any position of need  (and in some cases two or three) sitting there during the first few trade downs. And they were all passed over so Rick could get 5th Round Grade players in the 6th and 6th Round Grade Players in the 7th.

Spielman did this a few years ago and missed out on a ton of O-Line talent and ended up with Danny Isadora instead.  And that cost the team. I think he left Day 1 Starters on the table again this year in the 3rd and simply can't give him an A for that.

Bradbury, Irv Smith, Samia, Watts, Udoh..all good value picks. Trading down 4 damn times for Mattison is not good value. This Draft is a B for me.

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#10 · May 11, 12:23 PM
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@"FSUVike" said:

But all that movement just to land a possible reach that wasn't on any of our radars? Every single freaking one of us had a player we would have jumped up and down to get that was available with their original 3rd. Most of those players were available after the first trade down. A few were still on the board during the final two trades.
...

Bradbury, Irv Smith, Samia, Watts, Udoh..all good value picks. Trading down 4 damn times for Mattison is not good value. This Draft is a B for me.

This was why I complained about the Mattison pick.  I was crossing my fingers WR Hakeem Butler would even drop to 81.  For him to still be available after all 4 tradedowns was a gift horse that Spielman looked right in the mouth and said, nah, I'll take the backup RB over the 6'4 3rd WR we've needed for years.

The 5th round LB I think was an "oh, crap, who's next?" pick after the Jets took Cashman. That Spielman traded down for a 7th (even if only 3 spots) practically the moment Cashman was taken IMHO was not a coincidence.

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#11 · May 11, 4:02 PM
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Trade downs are a big part of the frustration - anyone watching them happen was likely to be ticked unless, at the end, Spielman pulled out a "gem" - and likely no player would have been universally agreed. Like RS Express, I wanted Hakeem Butler, but I think a lot of people would have screamed, "We already have 2 great WRs!!"
But I think there is another factor no one has explicitly mentioned yet: many, many Vikings fans hold this ASSUMPTION that Dalvin Cook is a proven star NFL RB. It seems like people saw the first game of his rookie season and said, "Ah, we've replaced Adrian Peterson, no need to worry about RB again for a decade!!" I read comments to the effect that we have star talent at WR and RB, and it really surprises me because Cook has done  little more than flash in 2 years. He never even had 20 carries in a game last season, and only 1 hundred-yard game. Hell, if he was a CB or DT, Zimmer would be talking about how he hasn't progressed as quickly as projected or that he can't contribute from the training room, and all the Zimmer-ites would be nodding in agreement and saying RB is a key need where we might need to spend a first round pick.

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#12 · May 12, 8:35 AM
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@"FSUVike" said: So here's my take. This Draft didn't have 32 players with a 1st Round Grade. More like 14-16. Luckily, several teams reached and Minnesota landed one of those true 1st Round Grade kids at #18.

What made this Draft interesting was just how many players had a 2nd Round Grade. You could get a legitimate 2nd Round Talent deep into the 3rd Round.

Smith at #50 was great because he had a high 2nd Round Grade on him and could have gone in the late 1st.

But the chance to grab another steal was traded away...more than once. And the result was to get a kid that at best went where he was rated and at worst was a reach value-wise.

Spielman righted the ship after that with several value picks in Samia, Watts, Udo and both WRs. The LB from USC that makes Rey Maualuga look fast is a headscratcher. Epps and Boyd have some intriguing qualities.

But to leave all that value just sitting there in the 3rd is not something I can defend. 

Drafting human beings is an inexact science to say the least. But I bet we all agree that a Team that consistently reaches vs. the consensus grade ala the Raiders will almost always fail to win consistently.

So the consensus grade clearly has relevancy. Rick traded down from where he could have nabbed any number of players with a 2nd Round Grade. And then he did it again. And again. And again.

But all that movement just to land a possible reach that wasn't on any of our radars? Every single freaking one of us had a player we would have jumped up and down to get that was available with their original 3rd. Most of those players were available after the first trade down. A few were still on the board during the final two trades.

It's maddening. Oli Udoh may very well become a better OT than Chuma Edoga. But the percent chance Edoga becomes a quality Starter is significantly higher and he was just sitting there.

You can name at least one player at almost  any position of need  (and in some cases two or three) sitting there during the first few trade downs. And they were all passed over so Rick could get 5th Round Grade players in the 6th and 6th Round Grade Players in the 7th.

Spielman did this a few years ago and missed out on a ton of O-Line talent and ended up with Danny Isadora instead.  And that cost the team. I think he left Day 1 Starters on the table again this year in the 3rd and simply can't give him an A for that.

Bradbury, Irv Smith, Samia, Watts, Udoh..all good value picks. Trading down 4 damn times for Mattison is not good value. This Draft is a B for me.


I agree with most but got a chuckle out of this line ...
Drafting human beings

... I was hoping they would be drafting all human beings and never really thought about it otherwise.  :)

I do wish they would have taken Hakeem Butler.

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#13 · May 13, 3:26 PM
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I still don't understand the frustration with the third round.  I think the player that most wanted after the trade downs was Hakeem Butler, we obviously valued Mattison higher, and honestly Mattison has a much higher chance of A. being an elite player in this system B. having opportunity to be an elite player in this system.
I think Mattison was the pick in the 3rd round from the start, they just wanted to find the correct landing spot to get him.  To me the draft ended almost exactly as the Vikings wanted other than the linebacker pick in the 5th round, they obviously wanted someone else.  Otherwise, I think they had the draft that they wanted walking into the draft, maybe even slightly better, and for that I call it a win.   I am fairly confident at least one of the players from the 5th to 7th and even UDFA's will hit and be a major contributor down the road, and I honestly think 2 will at minimum.  There is a lot more talent in this group of players than you can typically draft in the 7th round.  The vikings obviously thought some value would be there since they traded down as much as they did.  We obviously we know for several years the ultimate outcome, I am sure we will get a glimpse and an idea during the summer and who can make it on the roster or practice squad. 

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#14 · May 14, 9:07 AM
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The value was in the 3rd Round where you could get a near-universally graded 2nd Round Talent. Someone with a much higher percentage chance to become a Starter.

A Starter. Not a part-time player, which is exactly what Mattison is supposed to be.

Players that Rick passed on will become Starters either this season or next. Cost-controlled Starters, which you would think Minnesota would have interest in considering the cap situation.

I very specifically pointed out that I liked every pick after Mattison (minus Smith) as they were good values. But even Samia, a 3rd Round Talent, has less of a % chance of becoming a Starter than all the guys Spielman passed on.

You have to make a lot more late-round selections to hit on a Diggs or Weatherly as the conversion percentage in those rounds is far lower. Why he thinks that is a better strategy than taking a player sitting right under his nose with a much better statistical chance to pan out I will never know.

But it's exactly how you end up with the Danny Isadora's of the world instead of a Starter. He did it in that Draft and again in this one. And that's why the depth sucks.

What's the succession plan for Harry? What if they can't re-sign Harris? Who is ready to step in if something happens to Barr or Kendricks? Why wait until the 7th to find some #3 WR competition?

Can't keep punting out of high-value positions year after year to grab a bunch of late round lottery tickets without paying the piper sooner or later.

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#15 · May 14, 12:11 PM
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@"FSUVike" said: The value was in the 3rd Round where you could get a near-universally graded 2nd Round Talent. Someone with a much higher percentage chance to become a Starter.

A Starter. Not a part-time player, which is exactly what Mattison is supposed to be.

Players that Rick passed on will become Starters either this season or next. Cost-controlled Starters, which you would think Minnesota would have interest in considering the cap situation.

I very specifically pointed out that I liked every pick after Mattison (minus Smith) as they were good values. But even Samia, a 3rd Round Talent, has less of a % chance of becoming a Starter than all the guys Spielman passed on.

You have to make a lot more late-round selections to hit on a Diggs or Weatherly as the conversion percentage in those rounds is far lower. Why he thinks that is a better strategy than taking a player sitting right under his nose with a much better statistical chance to pan out I will never know.

But it's exactly how you end up with the Danny Isadora's of the world instead of a Starter. He did it in that Draft and again in this one. And that's why the depth sucks.

What's the succession plan for Harry? What if they can't re-sign Harris? Who is ready to step in if something happens to Barr or Kendricks? Why wait until the 7th to find some #3 WR competition?

Can't keep punting out of high-value positions year after year to grab a bunch of late round lottery tickets without paying the piper sooner or later.


Who are all these universally graded 2nd round players we passed on between 81 and 102?  I'd be surprised if even a handful of the guys drafted between 81 and 102 develop into starters this year or next...  to say Rick passed on players who will become starters is kind of laughable.  We have no idea if any of these guys will become good players or not.  Mattison could turn out to be the best player taken in the 3rd round for all we know.

Don't believe me...  look back at the 2015 draft...  we had Robison and Griffen in their primes and Rick traded back not once, but TWICE...  to take a "raw" DE named Danielle Hunter who many media members and fans thought wouldn't get many snaps as a rookie...  well guess what...  he actually played quite a few snaps his rookie year and was a big part of why our pass rush was so good.  Hunter and David Johnson are the only players who turned into good starters in the entire 3rd round as well...

I'm not trying to rag on you, FSU...  I actually enjoy reading what you post.  It's usually well thought out (even if I don't always agree with it).  Cheers bud!

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#16 · May 14, 1:12 PM
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It's all about percentages, Wetlander. 
 
I joked about drafting robots earlier, which MSP got a kick out of...but there was a point to it.  If every player had an iron-clad, guarantee grade out of 100 how could you ever F up by taking the highest rated player at a position of need?

Offensive Tackle Z is still on the board with a rating of 82.5.  Minnesota needs a future OT and no other Robot at a Position of Need is graded higher than 78. So the Vikings select Z out of Amazon Robotics Manufacturing Center Alpha.

If it were an exact science it would be boring as hell. So would Recruiting, which I get paid handsomely to do.

But there are metrics in place to help me recruit the best people. Job history, testing, answers to behavioral based interview questions etc.

And there is game film, combine results and a shit ton of scouting that provides the metrics of how to evaluate players.

That's how predicting future success works. There are no guarantees because of the Human Factor. But if these metrics had no merit either in recruiting in the business world or drafting players, then they wouldn't be used.

Passing on guys with metrics that say they could be 2nd Round Talents in the 3rd Round so you can load up on much lower round guys, whom subsequently have much lower chances of success statistically, is OK if you're aces at developing your own metrics that prove superior to the common norm.

But Rick's numbers in the late rounds have provided plenty of evidence that his metrics are faulty. Others who are far more critical of Spielman have published the numbers. He gets more late round picks than anyone else and doesn't convert enough to justify it.

Let me say it again. He trades like F'ing crazy to get more late round picks than anyone else. And gets very little for the effort. And certainly not enough to justify trading out of spots to pick players with much higher chances of success.

Again, it's a human thing. Just on the Vikings roster alone you have Thielen and Diggs. Every team has great players that the metrics of assessment completely whiffed on. But they are the exception, not the rule.

I believe Rick Spielman is good to really good at picking in the first 3 Rounds. There are plenty of players who are performing to back that up. So why trade back to get more and more and more late round picks without any correlation to continuing that success?

I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!

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#17 · May 14, 7:12 PM
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@"FSUVike" said:

I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!


Do you recruit for the tech industry? Software engineering and such? Nationwide or just KC?

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#18 · May 15, 3:38 AM
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@"StickyBun" said:
@"FSUVike" said:

I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!


Do you recruit for the tech industry? Software engineering and such? Nationwide or just KC?


Just Automated Equipment Maintenence Technicians, Sticky. For You Know Who.

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#19 · May 15, 11:43 AM
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@"FSUVike" said: It's all about percentages, Wetlander.    I joked about drafting robots earlier, which MSP got a kick out of...but there was a point to it.  If every player had an iron-clad, guarantee grade out of 100 how could you ever F up by taking the highest rated player at a position of need?

Offensive Tackle Z is still on the board with a rating of 82.5.  Minnesota needs a future OT and no other Robot at a Position of Need is graded higher than 78. So the Vikings select Z out of Amazon Robotics Manufacturing Center Alpha.

If it were an exact science it would be boring as hell. So would Recruiting, which I get paid handsomely to do.

But there are metrics in place to help me recruit the best people. Job history, testing, answers to behavioral based interview questions etc.

And there is game film, combine results and a shit ton of scouting that provides the metrics of how to evaluate players.

That's how predicting future success works. There are no guarantees because of the Human Factor. But if these metrics had no merit either in recruiting in the business world or drafting players, then they wouldn't be used.

Passing on guys with metrics that say they could be 2nd Round Talents in the 3rd Round so you can load up on much lower round guys, whom subsequently have much lower chances of success statistically, is OK if you're aces at developing your own metrics that prove superior to the common norm.

But Rick's numbers in the late rounds have provided plenty of evidence that his metrics are faulty. Others who are far more critical of Spielman have published the numbers. He gets more late round picks than anyone else and doesn't convert enough to justify it.

Let me say it again. He trades like F'ing crazy to get more late round picks than anyone else. And gets very little for the effort. And certainly not enough to justify trading out of spots to pick players with much higher chances of success.

Again, it's a human thing. Just on the Vikings roster alone you have Thielen and Diggs. Every team has great players that the metrics of assessment completely whiffed on. But they are the exception, not the rule.

I believe Rick Spielman is good to really good at picking in the first 3 Rounds. There are plenty of players who are performing to back that up. So why trade back to get more and more and more late round picks without any correlation to continuing that success?

I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!


Again...  who are these guys that are "2nd round" talents that we passed on in the 3rd?  Are these projections you're taking from draft analysts in the media?  If so, their opinions can vary widely from NFL front offices.  There were some guys I liked that went between 81 and 102, but nobody I felt strongly about.  Who would you have taken instead?

Also, if it's all about percentages...  is there a significantly higher chance to get a starter in the 3rd round than say the 4th, 5th, or 6th?  You keep arguing that, but I'd be curious to hear you explain this more with actual percentages... from what I can glean, most starters come from the 1st and 2nd round.  The first round has about a 50-60% hit rate in any given year and the 2nd round is generally around 50%.  After the 2nd round, the hit rate on finding starters drops like a rock.

It's not like we traded out of the 3rd round completely for a bunch of 5-7th round picks.  We moved back 20 spots through 3 different trades and still took a good RB prospect with the last pick in the 3rd round.  That extra draft capital allowed us to move up earlier in the 4th to get Samia.  If we had stayed at 81, maybe we don't have enough ammunition to move up for Samia in the 4th?

I guess I'm trying to understand your logic here.  What you're arguing sounds good in theory, but I don't think it's actually true by any objective analysis.  Maybe I'm wrong...

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#20 · May 15, 12:49 PM
DE
Joined Apr 2026
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Here are the players that went between their original pick at 81 and Alexander Mattison...

Vikings have pick 81, trade back to 88.

  1. (81) Detroit Lions (From MIN): Will Harris, S - Boston College
  2. (82) Tennessee Titans: Nate Davis, G - Charlotte
  3. (83) Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Layne, CB - Michigan State
  4. (84) Kansas City Chiefs (From SEA): Khalen Saunders, DT - Western Illinois
  5. (85) Baltimore Ravens: Jaylon Ferguson, DE - Louisiana Tech
  6. (86) Houston Texans: Kahale Warring, TE - San Diego State
  7. (87) New England Patriots (From CHI): Damien Harris, RB - Alabama
Vikings have pick 88, trade down to 92.
  1. (88) Seattle Seahawks (From MIN): Cody Barton, OLB - Utah
  2. (89) Indianapolis Colts: Bobby Okereke, OLB - Stanford
  3. (90) Dallas Cowboys: Connor McGovern, G - Penn State
  4. (91) Los Angeles Chargers: Trey Pipkins, OT - Sioux Falls
Vikings have pick 92, trade down to 93
  1. (92) New York Jets (From MIN): Chuma Edoga, T - USC
Vikings have pick 93, trade down to 102
  1. (93) Baltimore Ravens (From MIN): Miles Boykin, WR - Notre Dame
  2. (94) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (From LAR): Jamel Dean, CB - Auburn
  3. (95) New York Giants (From CLE): Oshane Ximines, DE - Old Dominion
  4. (96) Buffalo Bills (From WSH): Dawson Knox, TE - Ole Miss
  5. (97) Los Angeles Rams (From NE): Bobby Evans, T - Oklahoma
  6. (98) Jacksonville Jaguars (From LAR): Quincy Williams, OLB - Murray State
  7. (99) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (From LAR): Mike Edwards, S - Kentucky
  8. (100) Carolina Panthers: Will Grier, QB - West Virginia
  9. (101) New England Patriots (From LAR): Yodny Cajuste, T - West Virginia
  10. (102) Minnesota Vikings (From BAL): Alexander Mattison, RB - Boise State
Now, as I've said before, I love Mattison and think he might just be better for us than any of the above. I sure hope so. But you're fooling yourself if you're saying there are no good players here. Even if I take off the TEs (already drafted one) I'm counting 11 players that I really liked, and a couple I know the Vikings liked. 

So that begs the question, did we get who we were targeting? Most people seem to think that Rick wanted Mattison, knew he could get him later, and so went into the 3rd round knowing he was going to trade down repeatedly in order to stock up on late round picks. That MIGHT be the case, but we don't know that for sure. Might be a little wishful thinking on our part. It feels better if you think the Vikings got exactly who they wanted. But I'm just throwing it out there: The Vikings may have gotten sniped a couple of times here. 

I look at the pick right before 88 and it's Damien Harris, a RB very similar to Mattison. I look at the pick right before 92 and it's Trey Pipkins, a player the Vikings spent a lot of time with. Just throwing it out there...

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#21 · May 15, 1:36 PM
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