Don't be surprised if the Vikings pass on Cody Ford

@"FSUVike" said: Gamble my ass. I'm sorry, what exactly did all these world beater Guards that Minnesota missed out on do last year?

Ragnow and Price didn't exactly light the world on fire. I, like Geoff, wasn't as impressed with Hernandez on tape vs. his numbers. And he doesn't fit a ZBS scheme. Williams? Meh. He didn't suck playing next to an Elite LT. Wynn got hurt. Miller could very well be a bust.

Value-wise Braden Smith and O'Neill produced more from where they were picked than the 1st Round guys minus McGlinchey and Nelson. And Elf's rookie season was better than most of them too.

Drafting Hughes didn't kill the Line. Eadton missing the whole season. Elf coming back weakened from injury. Sporano passing. His replacements not recognizing O'Neill over Hill earlier and whiffing on Gosset being legit. Remmers sucking ass at Guard. D-Flop mixing schemes. Injuries. Bad playcalling.

Every single one contributed to that hot mess. As did Rick signing Compton and thinking Remmers could play Guard.

I'm not sure drafting Nelson would have prevented that dumpster fire. Too many other factors at play.

All the issues you mentioned about the line were predictable
with a high enough probability.  We
ignored them.  We paid the price.

Was there any day 1 starter that you thought was a strong
candidate for upgrading their respective position on the line?  Was it a good plan?

But your argument that Smith and O’Neill had more value than
first rounders is illogical and only makes sense in hindsight.  We don't need high value players relative to their draft position, we need good OLinemen.  It’s like saying that if you need a franchise
QB, you can just get one in the 6th round, because Tom Brady was
drafted there, and as a bonus it's super high value because the draft pick was low.  The players drafted in
the first round have a better chance of being better by any definition, than
the later round players.  If we want a
functional OG out of the draft in 2019, our best chance is to take the best one
we can, and at 18 we’ll get the 3-5th best candidate and at 50, we’ll
get the 10th – 15th best candidate.  You’re point that half the players are going
to be mediocre or injured their rookie year is very valid.  It’s why we almost certainly have to draft 2
OGs just to be certain to get one, a point that is reinforced by Kline sucking
last year in the same system that we’re running now.

Kline was actually not in a ZBS last year, IIRC.

But I understand your point about gambling by relying on injured players coming back or coming back all the way healthy. Rick has banked on that on the O-Line time and time again.

I also get your point about risk and the later the round you pick a guy that lower the percentage chance of him working out becomes.

Except your trying to compare apples to apples, IMO. All Draft are not created equally. I wasn't impressed with Ragnow, Price, Williams, Hernande, etc. last year. In fact, I had many of them rated lower than Elf when he came out.

Really, Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey were the only can't miss guys, and Mike only as a better than League Average RT. I liked Wynn a lot too, will be interesting to see if he develops into what I thought he could become.

This Draft doesn't have Nelson or McGlinchey. But it does have depth. Look at Samia from Oklahoma. Nasty player who'll probably go in the 3rd or 4th. Floor and ceiling much higher than Isadora, who was a 5th Rounder.

But good depth means squat if Rick drafts all Defense or whiffs on the right players.

That's where I truly believe we'll see the value of Kubiak and Dennison advising Stefanski, Zimmer and Spielman. They know exactly the type of guy they can mold and how to maximize strengths and scheme to hide weakneeses, which D-Flop didn't even try to do.

I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.

@"SkolVikings44" said: I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"SkolVikings44" said: I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.

Arif is a smart guy. Be curious to know his thoughts on this. Haven't yet subscribed to the Athletic, but there does appear to be some worthwhile content there.  

Whatever metrics the Vikings are using to evaluate OL are obviously working. :) Hopefully, there will be some changes in what they are looking for with the addition of Kubiak and what appears to be a commitment to running a ZBS for the foreseeable future.

Well, he was one of our top 30 visits...and at the Combine...So...

Darren Wolfson@DWolfsonKSTPMy fault on the hashtag typo in last tweet. To clarify: #Vikings have Oklahoma OL Cody Ford in today for a pre-draft visit. Boston College WR Jeff Smith is also here today. @gregauman first on Smith note.7:59 AM · Apr 2, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone

https://247sports.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/Article/Cody-Ford-visit-Minnesota-Vikings-130804640/

Last year I was pounding the table (keyboard) for James Daniels out of Iowa who was a scheme fit as well as having a 30 inch vertical and a 7.29 3-cone, and the Vikings passed on him too. He went to the Bears at #39 and started at guard their last 10 games.  

So far the evidence indicates Spielman thinks you can find a guard in a WalMart checkout line so it wouldn't surprise me at all if he once again refuses to spend a 1st on one.

The question is: will there be an OL coveted by a team enough to trade up at #17 in front of the Vikings? Last time the Vikings were in an obvious and glaring need situation in the draft is when they reached and grabbed the bust known as Treadwell because teams grabbed WRers on a run as the 2 or 3 picks immediately before them were WR. 

I could see the same scenario happening and Spielman shitting himself and reaching.

@"BarrNone55" said:

Well, he was one of our top 30 visits...and at the Combine...So...

In either case, this is good news because I love Cody Ford. 

Treadwell wasn't a reach.  He was widely projected to go about where we picked.  Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference.  So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.

@"medaille" said: Treadwell wasn't a reach.  He was widely projected to go about where we picked.  Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference.  So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.

@"StickyBun" said:

@"medaille" said: Treadwell wasn't a reach.  He was widely projected to go about where we picked.  Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference.  So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.

Coming off a major injury and ran a 4.65 40. He was a reach, would love to have seen how far he would have dropped if Rick didn't get the yips and grab him. He can't get open. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"medaille" said: Treadwell wasn't a reach.  He was widely projected to go about where we picked.  Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference.  So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.

Coming off a major injury and ran a 4.65 40. He was a reach, would love to have seen how far he would have dropped if Rick didn't get the yips and grab him. He can't get open. 

Treadwell was overrated and there was multi-page thread that year where one or two of us were trying to convince a hundred others to see that.

He was not, however, a reach. Pull up any big board from 2016 and he consistently ranked in the top 25. Vikings took him at #23. Matt Miller had him #23, Mayock had him #22, USA Today had him #11, SI had him #8. 

@"SkolVikings44" said: I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.

https://zonecoverage.com/2018/vikings/crunching-the-numbers-the-analytics-behind-the-colby-gossett-pick/

As an athlete, Gossett is outside the Vikings’ traditional mold by a
small amount; they historically target guards with quick three cones and
short shuttles as well as a good broad jump.

This is from 2015 ...

https://vikingsterritory.com/2015/analysis/2015-minnesota-vikings-a-step-towards-analytics
The Vikings have strong tendencies that I feel are driven by this notion
of information gathering and study. They’ve drafted younger players,
and have not drafted a player 23 or older in the past three years, a
popular trend among NFL data analysts (at least according to
Pro-Football-Reference). They seem to maintain round values for
positions, like late-round guards, mid-round receivers and an abhorrence
of the second round for any position.
Pretty spot on with the guard observation.
The one scary thing about all of this is that their preferences have not produced very good results.
Since 2012, here is the year, round picked, & player ...
2012, 1, Matt Kalil2013, 6, Jeff Baca2013, 7, Travis Bond2014, 5, David Yankey2015, 4, TJ Clemmings2015, 6, Tyrus Thompson2015, 6, Austin Shepherd2016, 4, Willie Beavers2017, 3, Pat Elflein2017, 5, Danny Isidora2018, 2, Brian O'Neill2018, 6, Colby Gossett
... that is 12 picks since Spielman took over as GM.
Kalil was a good choice who just got hurt too much.Elflein is incomplete and based on last year, trending down.Isidora is still developing and may never become a starter.O'Neill has a good chance to be a hit based on one year.Gossett they allowed to be snatched from the PS.
I would have to seriously review what the preferences are and overhaul those completely.

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"medaille" said: Treadwell wasn't a reach.  He was widely projected to go about where we picked.  Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference.  So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.

Coming off a major injury and ran a 4.65 40. He was a reach, would love to have seen how far he would have dropped if Rick didn't get the yips and grab him. He can't get open. 

Treadwell was overrated and there was multi-page thread that year where one or two of us were trying to convince a hundred others to see that.

He was not, however, a reach. Pull up any big board from 2016 and he consistently ranked in the top 25. Vikings took him at #23. Matt Miller had him #23, Mayock had him #22, USA Today had him #11, SI had him #8. 

But that doesn't mean he wasn't lower graded by NFL GMs. I really don't look at the 'media experts' as aligning with NFL GMs. You see it every year when a guy goes much higher in round 1 than the media guys select. Not a perfect science for sure for anyone, including scouting departments and GMs.

@"MarkSP18" said:

@"SkolVikings44" said: I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.

Arif has been doing this kind of work for years.  He really gets in depth in most of the pieces he writes.  He did a long story (or stories) years ago about what the Vikings look for in each position when they draft.  It was based on how they drafted and I believe on who visited as well. This is from 2018 ...

https://zonecoverage.com/2018/vikings/crunching-the-numbers-the-analytics-behind-the-colby-gossett-pick/

As an athlete, Gossett is outside the Vikings’ traditional mold by a
small amount; they historically target guards with quick three cones and
short shuttles as well as a good broad jump.

This is from 2015 ...

https://vikingsterritory.com/2015/analysis/2015-minnesota-vikings-a-step-towards-analytics
The Vikings have strong tendencies that I feel are driven by this notion
of information gathering and study. They’ve drafted younger players,
and have not drafted a player 23 or older in the past three years, a
popular trend among NFL data analysts (at least according to
Pro-Football-Reference). They seem to maintain round values for
positions, like late-round guards, mid-round receivers and an abhorrence
of the second round for any position.
Pretty spot on with the guard observation.
The one scary thing about all of this is that their preferences have not produced very good results.
Since 2012, here is the year, round picked, & player ...
2012, 1, Matt Kalil2013, 6, Jeff Baca2013, 7, Travis Bond2014, 5, David Yankey2015, 4, TJ Clemmings2015, 6, Tyrus Thompson2015, 6, Austin Shepherd2016, 4, Willie Beavers2017, 3, Pat Elflein2017, 5, Danny Isidora2018, 2, Brian O'Neill2018, 6, Colby Gossett
... that is 12 picks since Spielman took over as GM.
Kalil was a good choice who just got hurt too much.Elflein is incomplete and based on last year, trending down.Isidora is still developing and may never become a starter.O'Neill has a good chance to be a hit based on one year.Gossett they allowed to be snatched from the PS.
I would have to seriously review what the preferences are and overhaul those completely.

@"Bullazin" said:

@"MarkSP18" said:

@"SkolVikings44" said: I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.

Arif has been doing this kind of work for years.  He really gets in depth in most of the pieces he writes.  He did a long story (or stories) years ago about what the Vikings look for in each position when they draft.  It was based on how they drafted and I believe on who visited as well. This is from 2018 ...

https://zonecoverage.com/2018/vikings/crunching-the-numbers-the-analytics-behind-the-colby-gossett-pick/

As an athlete, Gossett is outside the Vikings’ traditional mold by a
small amount; they historically target guards with quick three cones and
short shuttles as well as a good broad jump.

This is from 2015 ...

https://vikingsterritory.com/2015/analysis/2015-minnesota-vikings-a-step-towards-analytics
The Vikings have strong tendencies that I feel are driven by this notion
of information gathering and study. They’ve drafted younger players,
and have not drafted a player 23 or older in the past three years, a
popular trend among NFL data analysts (at least according to
Pro-Football-Reference). They seem to maintain round values for
positions, like late-round guards, mid-round receivers and an abhorrence
of the second round for any position.
Pretty spot on with the guard observation.
The one scary thing about all of this is that their preferences have not produced very good results.
Since 2012, here is the year, round picked, & player ...
2012, 1, Matt Kalil2013, 6, Jeff Baca2013, 7, Travis Bond2014, 5, David Yankey2015, 4, TJ Clemmings2015, 6, Tyrus Thompson2015, 6, Austin Shepherd2016, 4, Willie Beavers2017, 3, Pat Elflein2017, 5, Danny Isidora2018, 2, Brian O'Neill2018, 6, Colby Gossett
... that is 12 picks since Spielman took over as GM.
Kalil was a good choice who just got hurt too much.Elflein is incomplete and based on last year, trending down.Isidora is still developing and may never become a starter.O'Neill has a good chance to be a hit based on one year.Gossett they allowed to be snatched from the PS.
I would have to seriously review what the preferences are and overhaul those completely.

great post.  wanted to puke with that list.  even worse Elf was TERRIBLE last year after solid rook season and as much as we like Oneill, he hasnt set the world on fire yet.  i am hopeful Kubes gets us straightened out