Forum The Longship OpEd: How much would a star No.3 receiver impact t...

OpEd: How much would a star No.3 receiver impact the Vikings’ offense?

purplefaithful
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As we count down the days until the beginning of NFL free agency, the Minnesota Vikings will be assessing their biggest needs and deciding where they want to invest cap space. Offensive line will certainly be a focus for the Vikings after ranking 27th by Pro Football Focus metrics in pass protection. But adding a No.3 receiver behind Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs may be key to unlocking the passing offense.

In 2018, the Vikings’ passing game was nowhere near the NFL’s best. Kirk Cousins may have cleared 4,000 yards, but Minnesota ranked 22nd in Expected Points Added, right behind the San Francisco 49ers.

What EPA tells us is how a team performed versus situation. For example, say the Vikings had third-and-6 from the 50-yard line. A 20-yard pass would create above expected results, a six-yard pass might create expected results and a 6-yard loss would have below expected results. One reason for using EPA is that it gives us the clearest picture of the passing offense’s efficiency and ability to step up when needed most.
The Vikings’ results in this category match up pretty well with the eye test. We routinely saw them come up short in key spots.
How much exactly did that hurt the team’s scoring output? Pro-Football Reference’s EPA model credits the Vikings for plus-52.7 Expected Points Added. The top team was Kansas City at plus-266.7 and 12 teams were over 100 EPA. The takeaway here is simple: In order to compete with the best teams in the NFL in 2019, the Vikings’ passing game needs to take leaps, not steps, forward.
There is no question that improved pass protection will help. There is also likely a ceiling on how much better that protection can get just like there is a ceiling on the level of quarterback play that can be expected.
However, when Washington had DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, Josh Reed and Vernon Davis in 2016, they ranked fifth in passing EPA with Kirk Cousins.
https://www.skornorth.com/vikings-2/2019/02/how-much-would-a-star-no-3-receiver-impact-the-vikings-offense/

Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger! 

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#1 · Feb 24, 10:54 AM
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Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus):
— Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating
— Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating
— Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating
Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers.
— Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating
— Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating
— Treadwell: 47 targets, 80.3 rating

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#2 · Feb 24, 10:55 AM
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I know the Vikings tried hard to bring in Alshon Jeffery a couple years ago, but that was before they were paying Diggs and before they knew what they had in Thielen. 

I don't know why we keep hearing all this talk about the Vikings bringing in a star free agent receiver. Doesn't make any sense. He'd likely make more money than Thielen, which would create turmoil. Even if the Vikings extend Thielen, then you have a huge imbalance of money directed to receiver that would cripple other parts of the team. 

That 3rd receiver is a need that is much more likely to be filled in the draft. Speaking of which, there is a Diggs Jr. in Deebo Samuel and a Thielen look alike in Riley Ridley. Possible both could be there in the 2nd round. 

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#3 · Feb 24, 11:23 AM
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While I do think another receiver would help the offense and Cousins, and maybe even Diggs and Thielen, as MaroonBells said, getting one in FA doesn't seem likely or logical. Two issues: how could we afford them, and why would a "star" want to play #3 receiver? Antonio Brown or Golden Tate will both want to be undeniable #1 targets where they go. Even a lower-tier WR like Tyrell Williams or Donte Moncrief will get opportunities without two receivers ahead of him. I like the Chiefs Chris Conley but he is also aiming to get more opportunities than a #3.

So we're either looking at the draft or bringing in a FA who was a disappointment elsewhere and looking for  a chance to shine in new environs - like Kevin White or Breshad Perriman (did the Vikings bring him in for a tryout last season?). Longshot gambles.

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#4 · Feb 24, 2:14 PM
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I think Beebe or Zylstra might be a decent #3 next season.  Unless we improve the pass protection, it won't matter much anyway.

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#5 · Feb 24, 2:48 PM
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Why does Kirk need the best trio of WR's?
Who was the number 3 in MN in 2017?

There is talk of getting him a better TE also.
Kyle ranked 7th and 10th in catches, yards, and TD's
Who was the TE for MN in 2017?
Just improve the O lime and stop with the excuses for this guy already.

All the experts said MN needed a better QB than they had in 2017.
So they fixed that with Kirk.

Now that it backfired, the rest of the team somehow needs improving?

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#6 · Feb 24, 2:51 PM
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@"purplefaithful" said: Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus): — Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating — Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating — Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers. — Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating — Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating — Treadwell47 targets80.3 rating


This seems like a weak link. I'm pretty much done with this guy.

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#7 · Feb 24, 3:03 PM
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@"HappyViking" said: I think Beebe or Zylstra might be a decent #3 next season.  Unless we improve the pass protection, it won't matter much anyway.


The elephant in the room is Treadwell. Just terrible and his play seemed to deteriorate as the season progressed. 

Yah, one of those 2 kids need to step-up this season for sure...

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#8 · Feb 24, 3:04 PM
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I mean its an oped in the middle of no mans land in terms of the nfl. Anything and every idea no matter how unlikley is worth of an article. 

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#9 · Feb 24, 3:47 PM
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@"suncoastvike" said:
@"purplefaithful" said: Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus): — Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating — Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating — Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers. — Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating — Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating — Treadwell47 targets80.3 rating


This seems like a weak link. I'm pretty much done with this guy.


Well Kirk could have targeted Adam 39 and Diggs 49 fewer times and thrown to Tread 88 more times.
Thielen: 110
Diggs: 92
Threadwell: 135

There are only so many pass attempts in a year. Kirk was right near the top.

Okay Thread is the weak link.
Point is, you can get a better 3rd, all it does is takes away from the other 2.

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#10 · Feb 24, 4:40 PM
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@"holmanjp" said:
@"suncoastvike" said:
@"purplefaithful" said: Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus): — Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating — Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating — Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers. — Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating — Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating — Treadwell47 targets80.3 rating


This seems like a weak link. I'm pretty much done with this guy.


Well Kirk could have targeted Adam 39 and Diggs 49 fewer times and thrown to Tread 88 more times.
Thielen: 110
Diggs: 92
Threadwell: 135

There are only so many pass attempts in a year. Kirk was right near the top.

Okay Thread is the weak link.
Point is, you can get a better 3rd, all it does is takes away from the other 2.



Not the targets that's the issue. Maybe the rating for #3 would be higher like Kirk did in Washington.

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#11 · Feb 24, 5:22 PM
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@"suncoastvike" said:
@"holmanjp" said:
@"suncoastvike" said:
@"purplefaithful" said: Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus): — Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating — Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating — Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers. — Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating — Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating — Treadwell47 targets80.3 rating


This seems like a weak link. I'm pretty much done with this guy.


Well Kirk could have targeted Adam 39 and Diggs 49 fewer times and thrown to Tread 88 more times.
Thielen: 110
Diggs: 92
Threadwell: 135

There are only so many pass attempts in a year. Kirk was right near the top.

Okay Thread is the weak link.
Point is, you can get a better 3rd, all it does is takes away from the other 2.



Not the targets that's the issue. Maybe the rating for #3 would be higher like Kirk did in Washington.


He caught 66% which is right there with some big names like Jones and Brown.

QB rating low is because Kirk likes to throw 3 yard passes when its 3rd and 7.
So ya the play was not successful.
He only had 1 TD also a ding on the rating.

I wonder what his rating was throwing to Robinson? 

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#12 · Feb 24, 5:46 PM
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@"holmanjp" said:
@"suncoastvike" said:
@"holmanjp" said:
@"suncoastvike" said:
@"purplefaithful" said: Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus): — Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating — Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating — Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers. — Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating — Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating — Treadwell47 targets80.3 rating


This seems like a weak link. I'm pretty much done with this guy.


Well Kirk could have targeted Adam 39 and Diggs 49 fewer times and thrown to Tread 88 more times.
Thielen: 110
Diggs: 92
Threadwell: 135

There are only so many pass attempts in a year. Kirk was right near the top.

Okay Thread is the weak link.
Point is, you can get a better 3rd, all it does is takes away from the other 2.



Not the targets that's the issue. Maybe the rating for #3 would be higher like Kirk did in Washington.


He caught 66% which is right there with some big names like Jones and Brown.

QB rating low is because Kirk likes to throw 3 yard passes when its 3rd and 7.
So ya the play was not successful.
He only had 1 TD also a ding on the rating.

I wonder what his rating was throwing to Robinson? 



Are you saying Tread was any good at anything other then the short stuff? Or that's all Kirk did?  I this point I really don't care how anybody spins it. Treadwell was another busted high WR pick. He's always almost, nearly, just about...then he isn't. I think that's all he'll ever be here. Maybe somewhere else. I'm tired of waiting on him. Give someone else a shot. 

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#13 · Feb 24, 6:23 PM
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Wanna help Cousins?

OL
TE
OL

Draft or free agency, I don't care, but it's hard to complete passes from your back

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#14 · Feb 24, 8:20 PM
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OLine is the most important upgrade, as it helps Cousins and lets us lean on the run when we need to.  That said, getting another receiving threat would go a long way.  The more receiving threats you have the better because it lets you lean a decent player against their worse coverage guys and it makes you more injury resilient.

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#15 · Feb 24, 8:36 PM
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@"medaille" said: OLine is the most important upgrade, as it helps Cousins and lets us lean on the run when we need to.  That said, getting another receiving threat would go a long way.  The more receiving threats you have the better because it lets you lean a decent player against their worse coverage guys and it makes you more injury resilient.

The Viking's passing game relies so heavily on the play-action.  This takes some time and you need linemen that can sustain the pocket in order for the quarterback to go through the motions of setting it up.  In reality, our offensive line sucks.  Addressing the offensive line in either the draft/free agency or both.  This is a priority.

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#16 · Feb 25, 6:24 AM
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@"holmanjp" said: Who was the number 3 in MN in 2017?


Good question but no one has answered it here. The #3 receiver in both seasons was Kyle Rudolph, but after that it was, both years, a RB. In 2017, that player was Jerick McKinnon with 51 catches for 421 yards. In 2018 it was Dalvin Cook with 40 for 305. Fewer catches, lower ypc. Injuries, OL, and OC all were legitimate factors, but ultimately McKinnon was a more productive outlet receiver for Keenum in 2017.
But looking at RBs points to the bigger factor - rushing production. In 2017, Murray, McKinnon, and Cook gained +1750 yards on the ground, but in 2018 Cook and Murray had <1200. Upgrading our #3 WR from Treadwell would be a nice tweak, but give Cousins the same kind of running game Keenum had if you want to compare them. Maybe people are fantasizing about the wrong former Steeler to fix the Vikings offense??
 

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#17 · Feb 25, 8:13 AM
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@"ArizonaViking" said:
@"medaille" said: OLine is the most important upgrade, as it helps Cousins and lets us lean on the run when we need to.  That said, getting another receiving threat would go a long way.  The more receiving threats you have the better because it lets you lean a decent player against their worse coverage guys and it makes you more injury resilient.

The Viking's passing game relies so heavily on the play-action.  This takes some time and you need linemen that can sustain the pocket in order for the quarterback to go through the motions of setting it up.  In reality, our offensive line sucks.  Addressing the offensive line in either the draft/free agency or both.  This is a priority.


Totally agree.  I don’t
think we’re going to be completely limited to only fixing the OLine in terms of
spending FA money or draft picks.  I
think our secondary priority is on upgrading the offense in other areas, while
trusting Zimmer to work his magic on defense.

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#18 · Feb 25, 8:28 AM
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Half of the WRs in the AAF could do a better job...

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#19 · Feb 25, 9:26 AM
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@"holmanjp" said: Why does Kirk need the best trio of WR's? Who was the number 3 in MN in 2017?

There is talk of getting him a better TE also.
Kyle ranked 7th and 10th in catches, yards, and TD's
Who was the TE for MN in 2017?
Just improve the O lime and stop with the excuses for this guy already.

All the experts said MN needed a better QB than they had in 2017.
So they fixed that with Kirk.

Now that it backfired, the rest of the team somehow needs improving?


How did it backfire?  The OL had a truly horrible season, Cook was still out much of the time, and our initial OC wasn't working well with Zimmer.

Oh, and that "3rd receiver", despite Cousins' attempts to work with him, is an undeniable bust...one that cost the Vikings dearly in some games.

Cousins has a TON to do to live up to his contract, but if the line can't keep a QB upright...any QB is toast.  The game is still won and lost in the trenches.

In the meantime, Cousins still managed numbers the Vikings hadn't seen in years...so the people determined to paint him as a failure are bizarre to me.

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#20 · Feb 25, 12:44 PM
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@"Zanary" said:
@"holmanjp" said: Why does Kirk need the best trio of WR's? Who was the number 3 in MN in 2017?

There is talk of getting him a better TE also.
Kyle ranked 7th and 10th in catches, yards, and TD's
Who was the TE for MN in 2017?
Just improve the O lime and stop with the excuses for this guy already.

All the experts said MN needed a better QB than they had in 2017.
So they fixed that with Kirk.

Now that it backfired, the rest of the team somehow needs improving?


How did it backfire?  The OL had a truly horrible season, Cook was still out much of the time, and our initial OC wasn't working well with Zimmer.

Oh, and that "3rd receiver", despite Cousins' attempts to work with him, is an undeniable bust...one that cost the Vikings dearly in some games.

Cousins has a TON to do to live up to his contract, but if the line can't keep a QB upright...any QB is toast.  The game is still won and lost in the trenches.

In the meantime, Cousins still managed numbers the Vikings hadn't seen in years...so the people determined to paint him as a failure are bizarre to me.


2017 was not that long ago!
Yes Kirk did start 16 games, congrats to him.

The scrub last year also started 16 games,(14 reg + 2 playoff games) had over 4100 yards and 25 TD's
Now granted he only made 2 million, so expectations were low for him?
I'm sorry but 4000 yards when you have 2 top 8  WR's and a top 7 TE doesn't really impress me.
Also if your 3rd in the league at attempts you better be passing for 4000 yards or packing your bags.

Now had he came here, with an even average win% against teams with winning records, and shit the bed against them.
I would maybe think it had to do with his supporting cast. Nope, he is who he is, wins against below average team not 
named Bills. Always an excuse for this guy.

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#21 · Feb 25, 1:46 PM
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