For those who question our play-calling...
It seems like most of the people here think that the Vikes Run-Run-Pass most of the time (when, actually, we did it less than 20%). In fact, it looks like we ran on first down just over 50% of the time.
Flip is still confused as to what the R stands for.
I've always felt that 1st down should be a 50/50 split between run and pass. That's your most unpredictable and productive down. 2nd down should be your run heavy down, really no matter the destance. Like 80/20 favoring the run. And then 3rd down is the passing down...about 80/20 based on distance, but that gives you a split balance. The problem with Flip was that he never seemed to get that in order to achieve real balance, that 2nd down has to heavily favor the run.
@"MaroonBells" said: I've always felt that 1st down should be a 50/50 split between run and pass. That's your most unpredictable and productive down. 2nd down should be your run heavy down, really no matter the destance. Like 80/20 favoring the run. And then 3rd down is the passing down...about 80/20 based on distance, but that gives you a split balance. The problem with Flip was that he never seemed to get that in order to achieve real balance, that 2nd down has to heavily favor the run.
1st down should also be your heavy play action down. John didn't seem to understand you could pretend you're going to run it even when your not.
Interesting to look at some of the trends. LA was over 60% run on 1st down. And #1 (if that is what the little numbers mean) on RRR. KC and NE was also very high on the RRR, so that seems to indicate they had success on 1st or second down or were unpredictable.
Some pretty mediocre offenses in the RRP lead.
Would a high ranked RPP signify that the 1st down run was largely unsuccessful and the offense fell into the predictable behind the chains with little gain on 1st and then throw twice to try and catch up?
The problem for most... okay a few... fine, two people that I know of for sure... was that you could easily predict what the Vikings were going to do given the situation. Not sure about this season, since we threw the ball so much more than normal, but for the most part if we completed a long pass play we always followed that up with a run. Seldom did we attack via the air again, unless in the two minute drill.(which I said we should run the hurry up style offense since that's what got us that tie in Green Bay). People could call the play just by the formation, down and distance. If fans could see it, you know the guys(defensive coordinators) that get paid could see it too. RRP was definitely a thing when Peterson was here... I think the Vikings moved passed it lately.
see what I did there?... =)
Interesting.
But is this the best type of graph for this info? The x-axis has two variables combined in one...no?
Data would have been better represented using a bubble chart? :o idk
Am I the only one confused on the abscissa (x-axis) of this chart?
@"suncoastvike" said:1st down should also be your heavy play action down. John didn't seem to understand you could pretend you're going to run it even when your not.
That was my biggest critique, as well. D-Flip did a very poor job of disguising. Hard to pretend with an empty backfield.
@"savannahskol" said: Interesting.But is this the best type of graph for this info? The x-axis has two variables combined in one...no?
Data would have been better represented using a bubble chart? :o idk
Am I the only one confused on the abscissa (x-axis) of this chart?
@"suncoastvike" said:1st down should also be your heavy play action down. John didn't seem to understand you could pretend you're going to run it even when your not.
That was my biggest critique, as well. D-Flip did a very poor job of disguising. Hard to pretend with an empty backfield.
Yes, the chart is confusing as hell.
The chart is pretty good and describes the breakdown of app of the qualifying series that have the 1st-2nd-3rd down play combo. Think of each team as a separate pie graph breaking down the play combination of series.
Take Seattle for instance, about 30% of the qualifying series were RRP, about 15% were RRR, about 25% we're RPP, about 4% were RPR, about 10% were PRP, about 5% were PRR, about 8% werePPP and about 2% were PPR. That's about 100%.
You can't look straight across at each part, except for the RRP part. It's essentially 8 graphs in 1.
So what happens if they don’t get to 3rd
down? Is that data not included on this
chart?
Like if you go:
- 1D: Pass for 14 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 12 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 8 yards.
- 2D: Pass for 15 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 19 yards.
- 1D: Run for 2 yards.
- 2D: Run for 3 yards.
- 3D: Incomplete Pass:
- 4D: Punt
Does that just go into the chart as 100% RRP and ignores all
the other successful pass plays?
@"medaille" said: So what happens if they don’t get to 3rd down? Is that data not included on this chart?Like if you go:
- 1D: Pass for 14 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 12 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 8 yards.
- 2D: Pass for 15 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 19 yards.
- 1D: Run for 2 yards.
- 2D: Run for 3 yards.
- 3D: Incomplete Pass:
- 4D: Punt
Does that just go into the chart as 100% RRP and ignores all
the other successful pass plays?
They throw in the "qualifying series" so I am assuming it is only series that include the 1 2 3 downs.
@"greediron" said:@"medaille" said: So what happens if they don’t get to 3rd down? Is that data not included on this chart?Like if you go:
- 1D: Pass for 14 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 12 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 8 yards.
- 2D: Pass for 15 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 19 yards.
- 1D: Run for 2 yards.
- 2D: Run for 3 yards.
- 3D: Incomplete Pass:
- 4D: Punt
Does that just go into the chart as 100% RRP and ignores all
the other successful pass plays?
They throw in the "qualifying series" so I am assuming it is only series that include the 1 2 3 downs.
if that is the case it can really paint a screwed picture of success or failure, especially not knowing the result of that 3rd down play.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"greediron" said:@"medaille" said: So what happens if they don’t get to 3rd down? Is that data not included on this chart?Like if you go:
- 1D: Pass for 14 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 12 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 8 yards.
- 2D: Pass for 15 yards.
- 1D: Pass for 19 yards.
- 1D: Run for 2 yards.
- 2D: Run for 3 yards.
- 3D: Incomplete Pass:
- 4D: Punt
Does that just go into the chart as 100% RRP and ignores all
the other successful pass plays?
They throw in the "qualifying series" so I am assuming it is only series that include the 1 2 3 downs.
if that is the case it can really paint a screwed picture of success or failure, especially not knowing the result of that 3rd down play.
Yeah, that would really screw with it wouldn't it. Dunno, but you would have to use something to qualify it.
Here's our run-pass % by down:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2018_splits.htm
(Click on "All Vikings Plays on 1st Down", etc.)
1st: 55.6% Pass / 44.4% Run
2nd: 63.2% Pass / 36.8% Run
3rd: 85.2% Pass / 14.8% Run
4th: 71.4% Pass / 28.6% Run
@"medaille" said: Here's our run-pass % by down:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2018_splits.htm
(Click on "All Vikings Plays on 1st Down", etc.)
1st: 55.6% Pass / 44.4% Run
2nd: 63.2% Pass / 36.8% Run
3rd: 85.2% Pass / 14.8% Run
4th: 71.4% Pass / 28.6% Run
It's interesting but would be more enlightening if we could relate it to down and distance, or something that indicates success or failure rate, such as; on first down, gained more than 3 yards or less than 3 yards; 2nd down, second and long vs second and short,; 3rd down, converted first down did not convert. 4th down, 4th and short vs 4th and long.
That would give the stats further context.
I don't know if anyone breaks it down that way, and it would take a lot of work, but would be interesting and place the stats in context.
@"medaille" said: Here's our run-pass % by down:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2018_splits.htm
(Click on "All Vikings Plays on 1st Down", etc.)
1st: 55.6% Pass / 44.4% Run
2nd: 63.2% Pass / 36.8% Run
3rd: 85.2% Pass / 14.8% Run
4th: 71.4% Pass / 28.6% Run
So on 1st down the D had a 56% chance of being correct predicting a pass
63% on 2nd
85% on 3rd
71% on 4th
Here I thought I had some special talent!
@"medaille" said: Here's our run-pass % by down:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2018_splits.htm
(Click on "All Vikings Plays on 1st Down", etc.)
1st: 55.6% Pass / 44.4% Run
2nd: 63.2% Pass / 36.8% Run
3rd: 85.2% Pass / 14.8% Run
4th: 71.4% Pass / 28.6% Run
And there's the problem. 1st down is OK. 3rd down is OK. 4th down is irrelevant. But that 2nd down breakdown should be reversed, and then some.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"medaille" said: Here's our run-pass % by down:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2018_splits.htm
(Click on "All Vikings Plays on 1st Down", etc.)
1st: 55.6% Pass / 44.4% Run
2nd: 63.2% Pass / 36.8% Run
3rd: 85.2% Pass / 14.8% Run
4th: 71.4% Pass / 28.6% Run
And there's the problem. 1st down is OK. 3rd down is OK. 4th down is irrelevant. But that 2nd down breakdown should be reversed, and then some.
depends on how 1st down went is driving the 2nd down numbers IMO... also the fact that we couldnt ever stay ahead of the chains this year. if they had a good first down it was brought back by penalty, or we had a pre snap mess that made it first and 15 or 20 that they then had to over come.
@"jargomcfargo" said:@"medaille" said: ...
It's interesting but would be more enlightening if we could relate it to down and distance, or something that indicates success or failure rate, such as; on first down, gained more than 3 yards or less than 3 yards; 2nd down, second and long vs second and short,; 3rd down, converted first down did not convert. 4th down, 4th and short vs 4th and long.
That would give the stats further context.
I don't know if anyone breaks it down that way, and it would take a lot of work, but would be interesting and place the stats in context.
If you click on the link they also break it down by down and distance and several different ways, but it's kind of chunky to copy and pasteSplits by Down & Yards to Go
Rushing Passing Down & Yards to Go #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A 1st & 10 414 10.00 6.08 179 813 4.5 3 22 168 227 74 1704 7.5 5 5 8 74 93.2 6.7 1st & >10 19 17.68 5.89 8 69 8.6 1 2 8 10 80 43 4.3 0 0 1 1 84.6 3.9 1st & <10 21 4.81 2.14 12 16 1.3 2 3 6 8 75 29 3.6 5 0 1 6 119.3 14.3 2nd & 1-4 48 2.02 3.71 24 61 2.5 0 12 17 24 70.8 117 4.9 3 1 0 14 103.6 5.5 2nd & 4-6 70 5.07 6.27 26 83 3.2 0 6 34 44 77.3 356 8.1 2 0 0 24 115.3 9.0 2nd & 7-9 82 7.95 6.16 30 160 5.3 1 7 33 48 68.8 345 7.2 2 1 4 20 94.5 6.5 2nd & 10+ 124 11.97 5.61 41 174 4.2 2 3 60 79 75.9 522 6.6 2 1 4 14 96.1 6.2 3rd & 1-4 63 1.89 5.03 17 33 1.9 0 10 28 41 68.3 284 6.9 5 1 5 25 117.3 7.4 3rd & 4-6 51 5.20 3.86 5 36 7.2 0 2 25 39 64.1 161 4.1 1 0 7 16 81.3 3.9 3rd & 7-9 42 8.10 4.55 4 11 2.8 0 0 18 33 54.5 180 5.5 1 0 5 14 80.4 5.3 3rd & 10+ 48 13.71 5.15 5 34 6.8 0 1 21 38 55.3 213 5.6 1 1 5 7 69.3 4.4 4th & 1-4 16 1.31 1.25 6 1 .2 0 4 5 10 50 19 1.9 2 0 0 4 95.8 5.9 4th & 4-6 2 4.00 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .0 0 0 0 0 39.6 .0 4th & 7-9 1 8.00 34.00 0 0 0 0 1 1 100 34 34.0 1 0 0 1 158.3 54.0 4th & 10+ 2 10.50 2.00 0 0 0 0 1 2 50 4 2.0 0 0 0 0 56.3 2.0 3rd/4th & short 79 1.77 4.27 23 34 1.5 0 14 33 51 64.7 303 5.9 7 1 5 29 112.2 7.1
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"medaille" said: Here's our run-pass % by down:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2018_splits.htm
(Click on "All Vikings Plays on 1st Down", etc.)
1st: 55.6% Pass / 44.4% Run
2nd: 63.2% Pass / 36.8% Run
3rd: 85.2% Pass / 14.8% Run
4th: 71.4% Pass / 28.6% Run
And there's the problem. 1st down is OK. 3rd down is OK. 4th down is irrelevant. But that 2nd down breakdown should be reversed, and then some.
depends on how 1st down went is driving the 2nd down numbers IMO...
My argument is that it shouldn't. Even 2nd and 10 should a be run most of the time. You have a decent chance of getting a pass defense and if you can break off a 6 yard run, you're now in a manageable 3rd down.Running the ball is a necessary part of offense. Running the football is valuable even if it doesn't gain anything. It keeps defenses honest, it sets up other things and and helps "pace" the offensive line. So if you're going to have any hope at all of balance, you have to do it on 2nd down.
Here's the way I see it: 1st down is the grab bag. It's the only down when the defense is not necessarily playing you situationally. Ideally, it will break down 50/50 to keep defenses on their toes. And since 3rd down will almost always be a pass, to have any hope at all of balance, your runs have to outnumber your passes on 2nd down by the same amount.
Not only did our passes outnumber our runs on 1st down AND 2nd down, we actually passed more on 2nd down than 1st, which is insanity IMO.
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