Create-a-player: Vikings using numbers to find the next Danielle Hunter
EAGAN, Minn. – The Minnesota Vikings refer to Danielle Hunter as “Create-a-player” because on the Madden video game he would be 99 everything. If you’re not of millennial age or younger, that one might go over your head, but the point is that Hunter excels in every category, from size to speed to quickness to smarts to drive. And the Vikings landed the NFL leader in sacks in the 2015 draft in the third round in part because they ignored his traditional statistics.
In 26 games at LSU, Hunter only picked up 4.5 sacks. If you haven’t heard this one before, you probably spit out your coffee because the Vikings’ star pass rusher has 37 sacks in 55 NFL games.
The Vikings took a swing based on Hunter’s athleticism and underlying numbers. At the NFL Combine, he scored in the 91st percentile in the 10-yard split, 96th in the 40-yard dash and 98th in the broad jump. During his junior year, the 24-year-old defensive end also had 13 tackles for loss.
Of course, not every big swing at a freakish athlete with good underlying numbers is going to end up being as good as Hunter, but the Vikings are using his success as a blueprint to find more under-the-radar players in the draft and undrafted free agent market.
“I think the system that we have in place right now, the cohesiveness with the coaching staff and if you look at the defensive line, for the most part they almost look identical,” general manager Rick Spielman said on Tuesday. “Stephen Weatherly, well, Danielle is a freak, but even some of the guys we just drafted this year and are on IR, they have certain physical traits and certain traits from a character standpoint that we look for.”
Few players compare to Hunter, but Weatherly has a similar stature to Hunter at 6-foot-4, 267-pounds and with a 4.61 40-yard dash, only 0.04 different from the Vikings’ young star. Weatherly’s 10-yard split was 1.59, which is 0.01 different than Hunter’s was at the Combine.
http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/11/create-player-vikings-using-numbers-find-next-danielle-hunter/
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
I found it interesting that Weatherly has similar numbers to Hunter. Had no idea he was a freak as well.
Weatherly looks to be the real deal. I know I had no idea who he was when we drafted him. I knew he played at Vandy I think. That was it. Nothing more. I thought it was a depth pick for the rotation. It seems to be a lot more than that.
IMO, Weatherly has a more natural DE NFL body, a little thicker in the trunk. He could play at 275 lbs. and it would be easier for him to do that Hunter who's built like a body builder. Thin-waisted. If Weatherly put on another 5-8 lbs of muscle, he'd take the next step up. Hunter is not a natural 270 lb. + guy.
What I've found surprising about Hunter is his character. He's not only a robo-athlete with prototypical metrics, he seems to be a smart, humble, hard working player. That is a great combination. Weatherly's ability to play a dozen instruments and his Harvard and MIT lineage bodes pretty well in that regard also.
@"MaroonBells" said: What I've found surprising about Hunter is his character. He's not only a robo-athlete with prototypical metrics, he seems to be a smart, humble, hard working player. That is a great combination. Weatherly's ability to play a dozen instruments and his Harvard and MIT lineage bodes pretty well in that regard also.Yes. A physical freak and seems like a great guy and his desire to get better is off the charts.
Hopefully Weatherly keeps rising as well. One issue with him tho, if he succeeds, then will it skew Rick's algorithm towards having to be able to play musical instruments? =)
@"greediron" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What I've found surprising about Hunter is his character. He's not only a robo-athlete with prototypical metrics, he seems to be a smart, humble, hard working player. That is a great combination. Weatherly's ability to play a dozen instruments and his Harvard and MIT lineage bodes pretty well in that regard also. Yes. A physical freak and seems like a great guy and his desire to get better is off the charts.Hopefully Weatherly keeps rising as well. One issue with him tho, if he succeeds, then will it skew Rick's algorithm towards having to be able to play musical instruments? =)
Couldn't hurt! The only downside is that being THAT smart and talented could impact his desire to play football a long time (re: Robert Smith).Alls I know is that getting potential studs in the 3rd and 7th rounds sure beats those crappy years I grew up with drafting players like Randy Holloway, James White, Mark Mullaney and Gerald Robinson in the 1st round.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"greediron" said:@"MaroonBells" said: What I've found surprising about Hunter is his character. He's not only a robo-athlete with prototypical metrics, he seems to be a smart, humble, hard working player. That is a great combination. Weatherly's ability to play a dozen instruments and his Harvard and MIT lineage bodes pretty well in that regard also. Yes. A physical freak and seems like a great guy and his desire to get better is off the charts.Hopefully Weatherly keeps rising as well. One issue with him tho, if he succeeds, then will it skew Rick's algorithm towards having to be able to play musical instruments? =)
Couldn't hurt! The only downside is that being THAT smart and talented could impact his desire to play football a long time (re: Robert Smith).
Or that DT that had no desire to play 5-8 years ago. What was his name. I think he was more into music than playing football.
I'll bet the second person Hunter would thank for his success (after Dre) would be the big fella they added at 3T this off-season.
To bad you can’t find a franchise QB doing it this way. A lot of other positions seem to allow you to use measueables to find the right guy but QB seems to be a crap shoot with all kinds of variables creating a successful Hall of Famer.
The next one? Maybe Porter Gustin OLB/DE USC
6'5" 260
https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/07/07/freaks-list-workout-warriors-2017-part-3
The 6’5” Gustin, who arrived at USC weighing around 235 pounds, is up to
260. He can bench press 475 pounds and squat 575. His vertical jump is
35 inches and Lewis told me the Utah native runs the 40 at about 4.6.
https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/09/06/porter-gustin-usc-trojans-diet-injury
Maybe he would fit all the things Spielman is looking for in a defensive end.
Another player is Carl Granderson DE Wyoming.
Weatherly has looked better this year but still has a long way to go before he deserves comparison to Hunter. Hunter was a steal and a huge surprise - but he was known before the draft and expected to go on the second day.
I'm just dubious that any "physical freak formula" reliably generates great players from late rounds of the draft. Even if Weatherly becomes a good player, that same formula has produced Edmond Robinson, Moritz Boeringer, Bucky Hodges, and Ade Aruna.
And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.
Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
@"FSUVike" said: And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
I know we are not ONLY going to pick the physical freaks - although Spielman really loves to go by the workout numbers fairly often. There just seemed to be a lot of "pick long fast high-jumping undeveloped super athletes and we can't miss!!" over-enthusiasm oozing out of that thread.
My biggest displeasure with Spielman's drafting is when he trades out of the first two days of the draft to slide into the 4th and get a couple extra 6th or 7th rounders. Why don't some of the Danielle Hunter success stories say, "Keep our 3rd round picks!"..??
@"Jor-El" said:@"FSUVike" said: And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
I know we are not ONLY going to pick the physical freaks - although Spielman really loves to go by the workout numbers fairly often. There just seemed to be a lot of "pick long fast high-jumping undeveloped super athletes and we can't miss!!" over-enthusiasm oozing out of that thread.
My biggest displeasure with Spielman's drafting is when he trades out of the first two days of the draft to slide into the 4th and get a couple extra 6th or 7th rounders. Why don't some of the Danielle Hunter success stories say, "Keep our 3rd round picks!"..??
Completely agree regarding all the trade backs. I've always been a firm believer that because players taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds have a big enough gap statistically to be successful over later rounds that I would hoard those versus consistently moving down to take multiple players in the 6th or 7th. Drives me frickin crazy when Rick does that.
@"FSUVike" said:@"Jor-El" said:@"FSUVike" said: And Ogdenibo. And how you can Aruna a bust? He's a dang rookie that got hurt.Weatherly had similar numbers in the Combine but even less production than Hunter in college. That's why he was a late round pick.
Jor El, you're acting like Rick will only Draft this way for DE going forward. But when you already have a Franchise RDE in Griff and spent a 3rd on Hunter why the hell wouldn't you keep looking for lottery tickets that check your analytics boxes at the end of the Draft?
I guarantee you that if Griff retires to deal with his condition Rick and Mike will use a 1st on a DE next year. Hell, this Draft is so loaded on the D-Line they may do it anyway.
I know we are not ONLY going to pick the physical freaks - although Spielman really loves to go by the workout numbers fairly often. There just seemed to be a lot of "pick long fast high-jumping undeveloped super athletes and we can't miss!!" over-enthusiasm oozing out of that thread.
My biggest displeasure with Spielman's drafting is when he trades out of the first two days of the draft to slide into the 4th and get a couple extra 6th or 7th rounders. Why don't some of the Danielle Hunter success stories say, "Keep our 3rd round picks!"..??
Completely agree regarding all the trade backs. I've always been a firm believer that because players taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds have a big enough gap statistically to be successful over later rounds that I would hoard those versus consistently moving down to take multiple players in the 6th or 7th. Drives me frickin crazy when Rick does that.
Most draft analysis I have read over the years shows the chance of getting a starter in the draft drops significantly after the 3rd round.
Rounds 4 -7 are not that significantly different. In fact your are just as likely to sign an UDFA starter similar to the odds of rounds 4-7. ( for us, a guy like Adam stands out as an all-pro UDFA) Other UDFA who are on our current roster who have started or may start sometime are guys like, Eric Wilson, Holten Hill, Chad Bebbe, T. Bower, M. Boone, Zylstra.But going back to both your points. I would agree with you if we trading picks in the first 3 rounds just accumulate later round picks but that is not what Rick has done. The last two trades of our 3rd picks other then staying in the round and moving around like we did with Elflein (moved up 9 slots) or even Delvin (2nd round move up) etc....the last 2 draft day trade downs with any of our top 3 rounds are:
(not 100% sure but this is what I found without too much research - time permitting)
2016 - Rick traded our 3rd pick # 86 to the Dolphins who drafted a bust WR
Rick received back a 6th that draft (not sure if it was the german wr or David Morgan) and a 3rd and 4th round pick the following year (again not sure on details but we moved up for Elflein in the 3rd (not sure if with this extra pick and then in the fourth we drafted Jaleel and Ben Gedeon). So I would say we got the much much better end of that deal. Lastly on 2016 and late round pick accumulation - both Weatherly and Kearse were 7th round picks.2018 - Rick traded our 94th (3rd round pick) and slide down 8 picks to 102 (4th round) selected Holmes and also got a 6th
My point is that Rick rarely trades down with the first 3 round picks without staying in those rounds. What he does do is maneuver around each round. What he also does is use those later round picks (4th and beyond, where the success rate is pretty much the same to find a starter) and increase his odds of success with more choices. Then the icing on the cake is we really go after (and pay) those UDFA's.
He uses all statistics for each round and each player athleticism scores and all sources (rounds, UDFA, Free agents) in building the team which we all agree (or at least most national pundits agree) is one of the most talented rosters today. After winning GM of the year last year he may end up doing again this year.
Rick has been knocking it out of the park with UDFA's. Holten Hill has the look another star in the making.
One difference is having the coaches to develop players with potential. Hopefully that trend will continue with some of our young offensive linemen.; especially at guard. I'm confident they have found their center and tackles.
Still need a good coaching staff to turn the athlete into a football player.
@"purplefaithful" said: I'll bet the second person Hunter would thank for his success (after Dre) would be the big fella they added at 3T this off-season.
Richardson was huge for that d line. What he is able to do up the middle opens up a ton in terms of being able to get to the passer.
@"jargomcfargo" said: Rick has been knocking it out of the park with UDFA's. Holten Hill has the look another star in the making. One difference is having the coaches to develop players with potential. Hopefully that trend will continue with some of our young offensive linemen.; especially at guard. I'm confident they have found their center and tackles.Are you sure it isn't Zimmer that has been hitting it out of the park? The Holten Hill priority seems more the MO of Zimmer than Rick
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