Digging into ESPN’s Vikings fantasy projections
As NFL fans start analyzing fantasy draft boards, they will find plenty of Minnesota Vikings toward the top. ESPN has released its fantasy projections for this season, let’s have a look at their expectations for 2018…
Kirk Cousins
ESPN 2018 fantasy projection: 4,328 yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Rank: 8th
The last time Cousins had weapons around him this good, he nearly reached 5,000 yards passing, but the Vikings are likely to rely more on their running game than the 2016 Washington team and they should have a much better defense, which means fewer shootouts for Cousins. Following a season in which the Vikings rarely turned the ball over, ESPN’s fantasy machine sees a high number of interceptions — in fact 14 picks would be Cousins’ career high. Mike Zimmer certainly wouldn’t be pleased with that.
Dalvin Cook
2018 projection: 261 rushes, 1,107 yards, seven touchdowns, 53 receptions, 500 yards
Rank: 8th
Cook made a strong first impression in three-and-a-half games before suffering an ACL injury last year. Fantasy owners are banking on him coming back strong. With Latavius Murray still in the backfield, it’s unlikely Cook gets 300 carries, but he will be a main feature of the offense in the rushing and passing game. Whether he reaches some of these plateaus may depend on how quickly he starts following the injury.
Adam Thielen
2018 projection: 85 receptions, 1,192 yards, seven touchdowns
Rank: 10th
Thielen became Case Keenum’s go-to receiver last season, posting one of the franchise’s best seasons in history. ESPN isn’t expecting any drop off from 2017. With little depth behind Thielen and Stefon Diggs, Cousins will have to rely heavily on his two top-notch receivers.
Stefon Diggs
2018 projection: 82 receptions, 1,045 yards, six touchdowns
Rank: 14th
Diggs’ fantasy production may depend largely on how he’s used by John DeFilippo. In 2016, he routinely lined up in the slot, but he was used more as an outside receiver and deep threat in 2017. But on a per-pass basis, he was just as effective or more last year.
http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/07/digging-espns-vikings-fantasy-projections/
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
I definitely think Cousins will continue his streak of 4,000 yard seasons, but I'm skeptical he will throw 14 INTs. As the article points out, that would be a career high for him. Zimmer preaches ball security and I would expect that to carry over again this season. Here is the breakdown for INTs by Vikings QBs since Zimmer became Head Coach:
2014 - Teddy 14 (18 total)
2015 - Teddy 9
2016 - Bradford 5
2017 - Keenum 7 (8 total)
I think it's more likely than not that Cousins has a career low in INTs this season. I'm thinking 10 or less...
This is still a run-first and play defense team. I would be surprised if we get a 4,000 yard QB and two 1,000 yard receivers.
interestingly enough... KFAN did a segment this morning on fantasy values and even though Diggs is the hot topic since his big catch, AT is going almost a full round ahead of Diggs in fantasy drafts that are being done already. Diggs score more TDs but the catches, yards, and durability of AT seem to be more favorable to fantasy people.
I think he will throw over 30 TD's. As wetlander said likely less INT's then they are projecting. You throw more INT's when you are trying to play catch up all the time. They will settle him into a roll of taking what the opponents give you. Don't force it and if need be let the defense do their thing. The defense is the main reason for fewer INT's here. Kirk is smart enough to see what Case and Sam saw. This luxury maybe more then even the better weapons on his side will make Kirk a very calm efficient QB.
i look forward to an offense that takes advantage of the defense holding the other teams down early. get a 14-17 pt lead in the first half, and let the air out of the ball in the second half, only throw the ball when the defense tells you to, otherwise have an oline that just grinds out yards in the running game to send those opposing fans heading for their exits by the start of the 4th quarter.... take the drama out of the game early.
@"JimmyinSD" said: interestingly enough... KFAN did a segment this morning on fantasy values and even though Diggs is the hot topic since his big catch, AT is going almost a full round ahead of Diggs in fantasy drafts that are being done already. Diggs score more TDs but the catches, yards, and durability of AT seem to be more favorable to fantasy people.I've seen a few sites that have Diggs significantly higher because his upside is higher. Pretty sure I would take Diggs over Thielen.
One of the smartest fantasy sites IMO is Fantasypros.com. Here's their top 250 and what they say about each....
35. Stefon Diggs WR - MIN (10), -3 vs. ECR
The addition of Kirk Cousins has everyone excited, though the one who should be most excited is Diggs, who might see more targets float his way. After playing with Case Keenum, who was more of a game manager, Diggs should be more of a field stretcher for Cousins, as he can create separation at every level of the field. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen had a boost in production under Pat Shurmur, who is now gone. As of now, Thielen is going earlier than Diggs in drafts, but it really should be the other way around. Take the discount on Diggs and pass on Thielen.
53. Adam Thielen WR - MIN (10), -25 vs. ECR Most don't realize how much of an effect that Pat Shurmur had on Thielen's career, as he catapulted him into a household fantasy name. He was 26 years old when he broke out, something that doesn't happen all that often. The move to John DiFilippo will change some things, as will the move to Kirk Cousins, who has taken more chances down the field than game-manager Case Keenum did. That would play more into Stefon Diggs' skill-set rather than Thielen's. I do expect him to be a reliable fantasy producer, but he's not going to finish with 143 targets again.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: interestingly enough... KFAN did a segment this morning on fantasy values and even though Diggs is the hot topic since his big catch, AT is going almost a full round ahead of Diggs in fantasy drafts that are being done already. Diggs score more TDs but the catches, yards, and durability of AT seem to be more favorable to fantasy people. I've seen a few sites that have Diggs significantly higher because his upside is higher. Pretty sure I would take Diggs over Thielen.One of the smartest fantasy sites IMO is Fantasypros.com. Here's their top 250 and what they say about each....
35. Stefon Diggs WR - MIN (10), -3 vs. ECR
The addition of Kirk Cousins has everyone excited, though the one who should be most excited is Diggs, who might see more targets float his way. After playing with Case Keenum, who was more of a game manager, Diggs should be more of a field stretcher for Cousins, as he can create separation at every level of the field. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen had a boost in production under Pat Shurmur, who is now gone. As of now, Thielen is going earlier than Diggs in drafts, but it really should be the other way around. Take the discount on Diggs and pass on Thielen.
53. Adam Thielen WR - MIN (10), -25 vs. ECR Most don't realize how much of an effect that Pat Shurmur had on Thielen's career, as he catapulted him into a household fantasy name. He was 26 years old when he broke out, something that doesn't happen all that often. The move to John DiFilippo will change some things, as will the move to Kirk Cousins, who has taken more chances down the field than game-manager Case Keenum did. That would play more into Stefon Diggs' skill-set rather than Thielen's. I do expect him to be a reliable fantasy producer, but he's not going to finish with 143 targets again.
this ranking seems to ignore the elephant in the locker and that is Diggs inability to play every week. I think Diggs ceiling is higher no doubt, but you dont contribute in street clothes on Sunday.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: interestingly enough... KFAN did a segment this morning on fantasy values and even though Diggs is the hot topic since his big catch, AT is going almost a full round ahead of Diggs in fantasy drafts that are being done already. Diggs score more TDs but the catches, yards, and durability of AT seem to be more favorable to fantasy people. I've seen a few sites that have Diggs significantly higher because his upside is higher. Pretty sure I would take Diggs over Thielen.One of the smartest fantasy sites IMO is Fantasypros.com. Here's their top 250 and what they say about each....
35. Stefon Diggs WR - MIN (10), -3 vs. ECR
The addition of Kirk Cousins has everyone excited, though the one who should be most excited is Diggs, who might see more targets float his way. After playing with Case Keenum, who was more of a game manager, Diggs should be more of a field stretcher for Cousins, as he can create separation at every level of the field. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen had a boost in production under Pat Shurmur, who is now gone. As of now, Thielen is going earlier than Diggs in drafts, but it really should be the other way around. Take the discount on Diggs and pass on Thielen.
53. Adam Thielen WR - MIN (10), -25 vs. ECR Most don't realize how much of an effect that Pat Shurmur had on Thielen's career, as he catapulted him into a household fantasy name. He was 26 years old when he broke out, something that doesn't happen all that often. The move to John DiFilippo will change some things, as will the move to Kirk Cousins, who has taken more chances down the field than game-manager Case Keenum did. That would play more into Stefon Diggs' skill-set rather than Thielen's. I do expect him to be a reliable fantasy producer, but he's not going to finish with 143 targets again.
this ranking seems to ignore the elephant in the locker and that is Diggs inability to play every week. I think Diggs ceiling is higher no doubt, but you dont contribute in street clothes on Sunday.
Honestly, those are the players I target. I'm a big believer in regression to the mean--the tendency for any extreme result to move closer to average when repeated over time.And so I always avoid the expensive edge. I've never understood fantasy owners who base their rankings on LAST year's results. It really is stupid. You should rank your players based on raw talent and situation...a change in opportunity.
Doesn't always work. Nothing ALWAYS works, but it sure did last year. When my opponents were paying $65 for David Johnson, I was getting "injury-prone" Todd Gurley for $44 and "injury-prone" Keenan Allen for $23. Johnson was out for the year. Allen finished 3rd among receivers and Todd Gurley crushed the league.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: interestingly enough... KFAN did a segment this morning on fantasy values and even though Diggs is the hot topic since his big catch, AT is going almost a full round ahead of Diggs in fantasy drafts that are being done already. Diggs score more TDs but the catches, yards, and durability of AT seem to be more favorable to fantasy people. I've seen a few sites that have Diggs significantly higher because his upside is higher. Pretty sure I would take Diggs over Thielen.One of the smartest fantasy sites IMO is Fantasypros.com. Here's their top 250 and what they say about each....
35. Stefon Diggs WR - MIN (10), -3 vs. ECR
The addition of Kirk Cousins has everyone excited, though the one who should be most excited is Diggs, who might see more targets float his way. After playing with Case Keenum, who was more of a game manager, Diggs should be more of a field stretcher for Cousins, as he can create separation at every level of the field. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen had a boost in production under Pat Shurmur, who is now gone. As of now, Thielen is going earlier than Diggs in drafts, but it really should be the other way around. Take the discount on Diggs and pass on Thielen.
53. Adam Thielen WR - MIN (10), -25 vs. ECR Most don't realize how much of an effect that Pat Shurmur had on Thielen's career, as he catapulted him into a household fantasy name. He was 26 years old when he broke out, something that doesn't happen all that often. The move to John DiFilippo will change some things, as will the move to Kirk Cousins, who has taken more chances down the field than game-manager Case Keenum did. That would play more into Stefon Diggs' skill-set rather than Thielen's. I do expect him to be a reliable fantasy producer, but he's not going to finish with 143 targets again.
this ranking seems to ignore the elephant in the locker and that is Diggs inability to play every week. I think Diggs ceiling is higher no doubt, but you dont contribute in street clothes on Sunday.
Honestly, those are the players I target. I'm a big believer in regression to the mean--the tendency for any extreme result to move closer to average when repeated over time.And so I always avoid the expensive edge. I've never understood fantasy owners who base their rankings on LAST year's results. It really is stupid. You should rank your players based on raw talent and situation...a change in opportunity.
Doesn't always work. Nothing ALWAYS works, but it sure did last year. When my opponents were paying $65 for David Johnson, I was getting "injury-prone" Todd Gurley for $44 and "injury-prone" Keenan Allen for $23. Johnson was out for the year. Allen finished 3rd among receivers and Todd Gurley crushed the league.
value players are nice... but there is a reason they are cheap to begin with... higher risk. I used to do pretty good looking for players in new situations, contract years, and in some leagues those rookies that typically dont tear it up this year, but as a keeper they will be a steal in 1 year. of coures watching all that crap took away from the game for me so thats why I quit.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: interestingly enough... KFAN did a segment this morning on fantasy values and even though Diggs is the hot topic since his big catch, AT is going almost a full round ahead of Diggs in fantasy drafts that are being done already. Diggs score more TDs but the catches, yards, and durability of AT seem to be more favorable to fantasy people. I've seen a few sites that have Diggs significantly higher because his upside is higher. Pretty sure I would take Diggs over Thielen.One of the smartest fantasy sites IMO is Fantasypros.com. Here's their top 250 and what they say about each....
35. Stefon Diggs WR - MIN (10), -3 vs. ECR
The addition of Kirk Cousins has everyone excited, though the one who should be most excited is Diggs, who might see more targets float his way. After playing with Case Keenum, who was more of a game manager, Diggs should be more of a field stretcher for Cousins, as he can create separation at every level of the field. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen had a boost in production under Pat Shurmur, who is now gone. As of now, Thielen is going earlier than Diggs in drafts, but it really should be the other way around. Take the discount on Diggs and pass on Thielen.
53. Adam Thielen WR - MIN (10), -25 vs. ECR Most don't realize how much of an effect that Pat Shurmur had on Thielen's career, as he catapulted him into a household fantasy name. He was 26 years old when he broke out, something that doesn't happen all that often. The move to John DiFilippo will change some things, as will the move to Kirk Cousins, who has taken more chances down the field than game-manager Case Keenum did. That would play more into Stefon Diggs' skill-set rather than Thielen's. I do expect him to be a reliable fantasy producer, but he's not going to finish with 143 targets again.
this ranking seems to ignore the elephant in the locker and that is Diggs inability to play every week. I think Diggs ceiling is higher no doubt, but you dont contribute in street clothes on Sunday.
Honestly, those are the players I target. I'm a big believer in regression to the mean--the tendency for any extreme result to move closer to average when repeated over time.And so I always avoid the expensive edge. I've never understood fantasy owners who base their rankings on LAST year's results. It really is stupid. You should rank your players based on raw talent and situation...a change in opportunity.
Doesn't always work. Nothing ALWAYS works, but it sure did last year. When my opponents were paying $65 for David Johnson, I was getting "injury-prone" Todd Gurley for $44 and "injury-prone" Keenan Allen for $23. Johnson was out for the year. Allen finished 3rd among receivers and Todd Gurley crushed the league.
value players are nice... but there is a reason they are cheap to begin with... higher risk. I used to do pretty good looking for players in new situations, contract years, and in some leagues those rookies that typically dont tear it up this year, but as a keeper they will be a steal in 1 year. of coures watching all that crap took away from the game for me so thats why I quit.
I resisted playing for many years for that very reason. I thought it would take away from my enjoyment of Vikings football. Which seems odd to say now that I'm entering year 21 in the same league. Hard to believe there was much fantasy going on before then but I guess there was.My basic point is that all players are risky. And they tend to yo-yo. Yeah, I loved Gurley and Allen last year, but I won't touch 'em this year. I want THIS year's Gurley (whoever that is) and THIS year's Allen. I haven't even started to look into who that might be yet but ya get my drift.
@"MaroonBells" said:I resisted playing for many years for that very reason. I thought it would take away from my enjoyment of Vikings football. Which seems odd to say now that I'm entering year 21 in the same league. Hard to believe there was much fantasy going on before then but I guess there was.
My basic point is that all players are risky. And they tend to yo-yo. Yeah, I loved Gurley and Allen last year, but I won't touch 'em this year. I want THIS year's Gurley (whoever that is) and THIS year's Allen. I haven't even started to look into who that might be yet but ya get my drift.
Same reason I don't play anymore; I have found that it really does over my years of playing. I spend too much time evaluating other teams and the potential of their players to have a big day. I'm usually putzing with my lineup all the way to kickoff. I like to over-analyze the Vikings Sunday morning; i like hyping myself up for the game and diving in once it start. With Fantasy ball, those games just... start and end. Kickoff happens before i'm mentally committed. Then i'm checking other teams players the entire game. Then I don't even overtly care about the Vikes fortunes; i'm on to the 3pm games with a chance to win!
I'll DraftKings every now and then to get a fix in, but even then... fantasy takes on a life of it's own that I find distracting to simply enjoying the Vikes. I'm either all in on it or not in at all.
@"BlackMagic7" said:@"MaroonBells" said:I resisted playing for many years for that very reason. I thought it would take away from my enjoyment of Vikings football. Which seems odd to say now that I'm entering year 21 in the same league. Hard to believe there was much fantasy going on before then but I guess there was.
My basic point is that all players are risky. And they tend to yo-yo. Yeah, I loved Gurley and Allen last year, but I won't touch 'em this year. I want THIS year's Gurley (whoever that is) and THIS year's Allen. I haven't even started to look into who that might be yet but ya get my drift.
Same reason I don't play anymore; I have found that it really does over my years of playing. I spend too much time evaluating other teams and the potential of their players to have a big day. I'm usually putzing with my lineup all the way to kickoff. I like to over-analyze the Vikings Sunday morning; i like hyping myself up for the game and diving in once it start. With Fantasy ball, those games just... start and end. Kickoff happens before i'm mentally committed. Then i'm checking other teams players the entire game. Then I don't even overtly care about the Vikes fortunes; i'm on to the 3pm games with a chance to win!
I'll DraftKings everyone now and then to get a fix in, but even then... fantasy takes on a life of it's own that I find distracting to simply enjoying the Vikes. I'm either all in on it or not in at all.
for me it came to an end in 09 when I was sitting in the dome watching the nfl scroll in the endzones for updates instead of watching the most exciting Vikings team in 10 years play live. playing fantasy fed the hunger for football year round as I was always looking for what I thought me be the next hidden gem or value pick.... but as a Vikings fan it really was a distraction as far as keeping pace with whats actually going on within my team.
@"BlackMagic7" said:@"MaroonBells" said:I resisted playing for many years for that very reason. I thought it would take away from my enjoyment of Vikings football. Which seems odd to say now that I'm entering year 21 in the same league. Hard to believe there was much fantasy going on before then but I guess there was.
My basic point is that all players are risky. And they tend to yo-yo. Yeah, I loved Gurley and Allen last year, but I won't touch 'em this year. I want THIS year's Gurley (whoever that is) and THIS year's Allen. I haven't even started to look into who that might be yet but ya get my drift.
Same reason I don't play anymore; I have found that it really does over my years of playing. I spend too much time evaluating other teams and the potential of their players to have a big day. I'm usually putzing with my lineup all the way to kickoff. I like to over-analyze the Vikings Sunday morning; i like hyping myself up for the game and diving in once it start. With Fantasy ball, those games just... start and end. Kickoff happens before i'm mentally committed. Then i'm checking other teams players the entire game. Then I don't even overtly care about the Vikes fortunes; i'm on to the 3pm games with a chance to win!
I'll DraftKings everyone now and then to get a fix in, but even then... fantasy takes on a life of it's own that I find distracting to simply enjoying the Vikes. I'm either all in on it or not in at all.
I think we all watch the game differently. For me, fantasy is all about the draft. And for the that 2 or 3 weeks I'm preparing for it, it probably overtakes the Vikings. After the draft, it's all Vikings. And on game day, I record the Vikings game and start watching about half way through. That's an intense 90 minutes when I couldn't care less about fantasy. I don't turn on my computer. I've never once watched Red Zone, never will. After the game, I'll probably check my fantasy score before taking a nap.I do like how how that fantasy prep time before the draft gives me a much better knowledge of other teams' strengths, weaknesses, new offenses, defenses, coordinators, etc. That knowledge enhances my purple fanatacism.
I love fantasy, but one thing I don't and will never do is have more than one fantasy team. To each his own, but I never understood the appeal of that.
After self reflecting, whats you buddy doing? ...He's face down in his phone checking his scores. You just put your phone down in a "what am I doing?!" rage, trying to now watch the game. "HEY! MY GUY JUST BLEW UP! WE GOTTA CHANGE IT QUICK!"
I'm like, "WOW, EVERSON THAT WAS INCREDIB-" and he's like, "DAMN JULIO JONES JUST GOT ME 10 POINTS- HOLD ON - OMG - WHAT JUST HAPPENED!?"
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