Tier 2 vs Tier 1 QBs

For me it boils down to being far easier to find good (to very good) players, versus finding great players.
i.e. You build a good (to very good) TEAM. Makes the QB job easier, thus (like you say) shouldn't need to get in a bidding war for the next potential "franchise" QB.

At least thats how it works in my overly simplistic theory...  =)  

ive made similar statements quite a bit the last few weeks.  for me it boils down to it being much easier and cheaper to build a quality oline and supporting cast with good depth than it is to find a couple top tier QBs to cover up for shoddy oline play.  the reason i say a couple as we have all seen first hand that 1 QB very likely wont get it done for 19 to 20 games.

a great coach and the most very good players seems to beat a few great players. But Foles has been able to look very good in Philly a couple of times now. Jeff Fisher makes everyone suck.

First thought: we - and everyone - are now going to overvalue this year's SB for a while. Foles came out on top, yes - but if Brady gets the ball out of his hand to avoid the strip sack, or Gronk catches that Hail Mary, then all of today's stories might be about the transcendent nature of Tom Brady and that having a HOF QB is the only way to have a multi-year dynasty. It's not as if the Eagles beat the Pats 41-0; it was a close win that could have gone the other way. And it is only one game.
Second thought: Foles was a 3rd-round pick who many scouts liked and believed had long-term starting potential. He's 6-5, 240 with a very strong arm, a Pro Bowl season a few years ago and some impressive records including a 7 TD game. In terms of both his physical talent and NFL resume, he is NOT comparable to Case Keenum.
Third thought: yeah, duh - NFL personnel men over-obsess with the "franchise QB" idea. That's why we see a QB, or a couple, climb up the draft charts and get picked #1 even when better all-around players are available at other positions. BUT that has been the habit of so many NFL GMs that they aren't going to admit this and change very quickly.
If this is true, then Howie Roseman should trade Wentz to the Browns for 3 #1 picks, surround Foles with a few more quality starters, and live this theory, right?? But he convinced his owner that they needed to trade a lot of draft capital for Wentz - the "franchise-2nd-overall-pick-worth-more-than-three-other-players" QB. So the man who just won a championship without a "franchise QB" is now going to try to justify having gone out to get one.

Does anyone remember just two short weeks ago when Case was considered to be way better than Foles?  Many "experts" picked the Vikes to  win in Philly because of Case.  My how things change in a hurry.  B)

Every QB the Vikings has ever employed have left me in tears!  B) 

@"HappyViking" said: Does anyone remember just two short weeks ago when Case was considered to be way better than Foles?  Many "experts" picked the Vikes to  win in Philly because of Case.  My how things change in a hurry.  B)

Those "experts" probably figured Zimmer's defense would cause more trouble for Foles then the Eagles' defense for Keenum.  Boy were they wrong. 

Anything can happen in a one year scenario. Foles's career has been spotty before this, same with Keenum. Do we now expect Foles to perform like this and he's now an elite QB? Same with Keenum? Or are they more anomaly than rule? The odds and history will tell you the latter.

I want a QB that is Tier 1: the only guy I've seen close is Bradford. But he's a risk with that knee. 

@"StickyBun" said: Anything can happen in a one year scenario. Foles's career has been spotty before this, same with Keenum. Do we now expect Foles to perform like this and he's now an elite QB? Same with Keenum? Or are they more anomaly than rule? The odds and history will tell you the latter.

I want a QB that is Tier 1: the only guy I've seen close is Bradford. But he's a risk with that knee. 

I think it's a mistake to say Foles' 2017 was as anomalous as Keenum's. Take out the Super Bowl - which is justifiably magnified in importance - and no one would say this was Foles' best season; that was certainly 2013 (27 TDs).
Subtract 2017 TD and INT stats from each of their careers and the rest of their careers are very different:
Keenum: 2017=22/7; rest of career=24/20 (4 seasons)
Foles:      2017=5/2; rest of career=56/27 (5 seasons)
Keenum threw nearly half of his career TDs (46) just this year, an enormous spike in his career graph. His production this year was more than double any other season, so it's fair to say it was totally unexpected. But Foles has been a middle-of-the-road QB before (and IMO is probably still just that).
I am surprised that many people on this board are discounting Foles' performance in the playoffs and SB, which are high-pressure games. Doesn't that contradict the view that Bridgewater's value is greater than his statistical production because he is "GUMP"?

Would you rather have:

a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?

(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)

Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).

@"SmashmouthD" said: Would you rather have:

a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?

(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)

Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).

@"Jor-El" said:

@"SmashmouthD" said: Would you rather have:

a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?

(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)

Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).

My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"Jor-El" said:

@"SmashmouthD" said: Would you rather have:

a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?

(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)

Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).

My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.

what I dont understand is the belief that Teddy hit a ceiling at 25 with only 2 years experience on a pretty shitty offense,  but somehow Cousins at 30 is going to get better after 5 years if he has better people around him and a better offense.  I understand the concerns over Teddy and Sams knees, especially Sams,  but if the kids has cleared all the medicals and Sugarman says he's good to go,  I have to trust that, and I certainly saw an improved player in camp before last season knee injury so I am of the belief that Teddy is the choice on a prove it deal with incentives for Teddy if he is what they hope.  ( I would still like to see Keenum or Sam agree to stay and compete as a quality second option... or first if they win the battle.)

@"FSUVike" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"Jor-El" said:

@"SmashmouthD" said: Would you rather have:

a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?

(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)

Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).

My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.

what I dont understand is the belief that Teddy hit a ceiling at 25 with only 2 years experience on a pretty shitty offense,  but somehow Cousins at 30 is going to get better after 5 years if he has better people around him and a better offense.  I understand the concerns over Teddy and Sams knees, especially Sams,  but if the kids has cleared all the medicals and Sugarman says he's good to go,  I have to trust that, and I certainly saw an improved player in camp before last season knee injury so I am of the belief that Teddy is the choice on a prove it deal with incentives for Teddy if he is what they hope.  ( I would still like to see Keenum or Sam agree to stay and compete as a quality second option... or first if they win the battle.)

I was pimping Teddy to Minnesota before anyone else on this site.

But you're Projecting what he would do in this Offense 

And why would Cousins need to improve? He's already had multiple 4,000 yard seasons. There's nothing to project with him nor does he need to "prove it" ala Teddy. 

At the end of the day I prefer Teddy over Case and Sam. But he'll need to prove he can get this team 30 points when things aren't going the Defense's way. Kirk has already proved he can put points on the board. 

See, that's where I'm different. I watch all the teams. Just like Micky watched all the fighters while Rocky was running around partying.

Cousins isn't just a stat stuffer that racks up garbage time yardage. You've heard from Geoff and myself that he's a Tier 2 guy. The rest of the League believes that too or there wouldn't have been so much fascination with the ongoing drama in Washington.

We're not talking Ryan Fitzpatrick here. Kirk is in the same conversation as Matty Ice, Rivers, Stafford, Smith, Carr, etc.

Those guys don't come cheap. After watching back to back Super Bowls where teams combined for 62 and 74 points in games that weren't blowouts against Defenses that didn't exactly suck I'm just not seeing how the team can upgrade it's Defense to the point where Minnesota can win a title game 24-21.

And I just don't see any of the current QBs being able to consistently put 30+ on the board in the Playoffs.

Caveat: if Rick snags an upgrade at RT and upgrades at both Guard spots and adds another legit Pass Catching TE along with a bona fide replacement for Jet AND the new OC is hot ala Shurmer/McDaniel/Reich then I'm fine with going with any of the guys from last year.

That's a lot of Ifs, though.

Its kind of a moot point for most teams.  Both Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs are so rare that
most teams aren’t going to be choosing between multiple Tier 1 or 2 options.  You either get an acceptable QB or you are
pretty much calling it a year before the season starts.  That’s why you got Tier 2 guys getting paid
what Tier 1 guys should get paid.

I think Cousins is the safest option for winning a SB in the
next 2 years by providing functional QBing, but after that I think his contract
is going to weigh us down.  He doesn’t excite
me.  At this point I like the idea of
rolling with Bradford and/or Bridgewater and drafting a QB in the first if a
decent one is available.  I’m less
excited about Keenum although I can see why people like him.

Mostly I want to have this decision be figured out, so we
can start moving forward.  

WTF moments and legendary play is VERY closely related to dumb luck.  A lot of tier 1 and tier 2 QB's are only separated by their propensity to have dumb luck follow them around.  Just a couple more random, dumb luck plays and the careers of many tier 2 QB's would look very different.  If Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and Mathew Stafford got the same amount of dumb luck A. Rodgers has received, I think they'd be looked at as tier 1 QBs as well.  All can chuck the rock for 4,000 plus yards and lead a team from behind.  Dumb luck just hasn't shown it likes them as much on Hail Mary type plays as it does Rodgers.  Eli Manning - was he a tier 1 QB or damn lucky tier 2 QB in his prime?  I would have selected Payton over Eli, 100 times out of 100 times.  To this day, I don't see Eli as ever being a tier 1 QB.  But he has the "bling" in the argument to shut me up.  

Maybe Cousins is a tier 2 QB or he's an unlucky tier 1 guy in a dis-functional organization?  Today, paying $25-$27 million for a tier 2 QB seems like a gross overpayment.  But you can almost guarantee that most of the tier 1 guys will be getting paid north of $30 million very soon.  Then you can look at it and say Rodgers at $30-$32 million per vs. Cousins at $25-$27 million per.  It just seems like we are stuck with the mindset that tier 1 guys make $25 million per and that's not going to change.  It will and soon.        

I think Cousins would flourish in the current Minnesota Vikings team and organization. Tough minded and productive. 9 games indoors. If you can maximize a guy like Keenum, you can certainly do the same with Cousins whose tool box is slightly better. 

I just don't think it will happen. 

@"AllBS" said: WTF moments and legendary play is VERY closely related to dumb luck.  A lot of tier 1 and tier 2 QB's are only separated by their propensity to have dumb luck follow them around.  Just a couple more random, dumb luck plays and the careers of many tier 2 QB's would look very different.  If Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and Mathew Stafford got the same amount of dumb luck A. Rodgers has received, I think they'd be looked at as tier 1 QBs as well.  All can chuck the rock for 4,000 plus yards and lead a team from behind.  Dumb luck just hasn't shown it likes them as much on Hail Mary type plays as it does Rodgers.  Eli Manning - was he a tier 1 QB or damn lucky tier 2 QB in his prime?  I would have selected Payton over Eli, 100 times out of 100 times.  To this day, I don't see Eli as ever being a tier 1 QB.  But he has the "bling" in the argument to shut me up.  

Maybe Cousins is a tier 2 QB or he's an unlucky tier 1 guy in a dis-functional organization?  Today, paying $25-$27 million for a tier 2 QB seems like a gross overpayment.  But you can almost guarantee that most of the tier 1 guys will be getting paid north of $30 million very soon.  Then you can look at it and say Rodgers at $30-$32 million per vs. Cousins at $25-$27 million per.  It just seems like we are stuck with the mindset that tier 1 guys make $25 million per and that's not going to change.  It will and soon.        

Totally agree about the salary cap though, but lesser QBs
will still get paid too much for their value.

@"medaille" said:

@"AllBS" said: WTF moments and legendary play is VERY closely related to dumb luck.  A lot of tier 1 and tier 2 QB's are only separated by their propensity to have dumb luck follow them around.  Just a couple more random, dumb luck plays and the careers of many tier 2 QB's would look very different.  If Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and Mathew Stafford got the same amount of dumb luck A. Rodgers has received, I think they'd be looked at as tier 1 QBs as well.  All can chuck the rock for 4,000 plus yards and lead a team from behind.  Dumb luck just hasn't shown it likes them as much on Hail Mary type plays as it does Rodgers.  Eli Manning - was he a tier 1 QB or damn lucky tier 2 QB in his prime?  I would have selected Payton over Eli, 100 times out of 100 times.  To this day, I don't see Eli as ever being a tier 1 QB.  But he has the "bling" in the argument to shut me up.  

Maybe Cousins is a tier 2 QB or he's an unlucky tier 1 guy in a dis-functional organization?  Today, paying $25-$27 million for a tier 2 QB seems like a gross overpayment.  But you can almost guarantee that most of the tier 1 guys will be getting paid north of $30 million very soon.  Then you can look at it and say Rodgers at $30-$32 million per vs. Cousins at $25-$27 million per.  It just seems like we are stuck with the mindset that tier 1 guys make $25 million per and that's not going to change.  It will and soon.        

I disagree on the luck statement.  I think guys get lucky for periods of time,
maybe even a full season, but guys who are consistently lucky make their own
luck.  They make plays that may look
risky, but they know something that makes it is less risky than it seems, so
the odds are in their favor.  Lesser QBs can’t
see all the risks, so the odds aren’t in their favor.  Also teammates who believe in their QB perform
better.  A lot of what made Favre so
great was that his teammates knew at any given moment he would launch the ball
their way and expect them to make the play, and they would rise to the occasion.  With lesser QBs they will often loaf just a
little bit or be surprised when the ball comes their way and the pass is incomplete.

Totally agree about the salary cap though, but lesser QBs
will still get paid too much for their value.