QB questions.....

I think pedigree plays a big part. If you draft a guy in the first round and he has all of the characteristics you're looking for (experience, size, arm talent, composure, leadership), that guy is going to get a lot more time than someone without those characteristics. 

To make matters even more difficult, there are so many factors that contribute to (or disguise) a QB's true ability. Health, stability, supporting cast. 

Sam Bradford is the perfect example. #1 overall pick with everything you want. But you put him on a terrible team, he gets hurt a couple times, and everyone thinks he's a bust. But you could see big time talent in flashes. Rick gambled on that, and whether he won or not still remains to be seen. Yeah, he got hurt AGAIN, and that is part of the equation, but I don't think there's any more doubt that with the right team around him, he could still be the elite QB he was drafted to be. 

I've said it a million times, but it's so important to factor in supporting cast, whether you're talking about Sam, Teddy, Case, Carr...I think there are maybe only 1 or 2 QBs in the NFL whose ability transcends supporting cast. But even among the 2nd tier QBs, you can look at the careers of Ben, Rivers, Eli, Flacco, Ryan and you can pretty much match up their ups and downs with the ups and downs of their supporting cast. 

i think the issue with QBs (and all players really) when comparing todays player to players of the past is their grooming.  In the past QBs were prepared in college to be pro QBs, and then when they were drafted they were set behind a veteran for a year or two so that they can polish those pro skills and learn to prepare like a pro.  not the case anymore.   with the monster rookie deals and free agency,  these teams need to get their prized QBs on the field as quickly as they can and push them to succeed as soon as possible or considering the only thing shorter than a players career is a losing coaches... they will be gone or the people that believed in them will be.

IMO we need to get back to a point where the players that are coming into the league are better prepared for the NFL game,  if college wont do it,  IMO the league should look at creating a developmental league that not only builds better players... but better coaches as well.

I do think that QBs can improve in many areas... but I don't know whether or not they can "suddenly" grow stronger arms.  That's why teams take chances on "physical specimens", with the hope that they can fix the other issues.  That doesn't always (often?) work... but if you take a guy like Teddy or Case, you can do alot with them- but you can't (really) improve their arm strength.  They will always be limited in what kinds of throws they can make.  Some QBs with less-than-super arms have still been very successful in the NFL.  But can Teddy or Case be one of those guys?  I don't know...

Rodgers had the fortune to sit behind Favre for a couple of years...had he been thrown to the wolves in year one, well, who knows.  But patience? Patience is not an option any more in the NFL...most fans are screaming to put 'em in, coach!

Josh Allen wants to be the next sacrificial victim to rescue the Mistake on the Lake. 

May God go with you, my son.

@"pumpf" said: I do think that QBs can improve in many areas... but I don't know whether or not they can "suddenly" grow stronger arms.  That's why teams take chances on "physical specimens", with the hope that they can fix the other issues.  That doesn't always (often?) work... but if you take a guy like Teddy or Case, you can do alot with them- but you can't (really) improve their arm strength.  They will always be limited in what kinds of throws they can make.  Some QBs with less-than-super arms have still been very successful in the NFL.  But can Teddy or Case be one of those guys?  I don't know...

Brees is the classic example of a QB whose arm improved dramatically.   And people get too hung up on arm strength. While it's nice it's not a huge factor to long term success.  Growing physically and being smart enough to play the game are far more important.

Even then it's a roll of the dice.

Unfortunately I don't think there is one answer to your question. You really have to take it on a player by player basis. The rule of thumb is that high draft picks deserve three years before you can really draw any hard conclusions. But I'll go question question: 

1. Yes, players can improve year over year and develop into a franchise guy. Most do. The big caveat is that you can usually see flashes of a franchise QB from time to time while they develop. That is mainly due to intangibles remaining pretty steady. The features you'll really see improve are footwork, overall throwing mechanics, and mental processing speed. Physically guys can get a little stronger but any major improvements to arm strength, accuracy, etc.. are mechanically driven. 

2. As I mentioned above, rule of thumb is 3 years. But the big roadblock that seems to get in the way are owners who don't like to wait for QB's to develop. Once you change the coach or FO they aren't typically tied at the hip to the QB in place and likely will find their own options externally. 

3. I think the fact that QB's are given up on earlier now than in the past is somewhat overblown. However, I do think the common gameplan has been to bring in a stop gap and let the young guy develop. If you wait for them to start and they fail quickly the team is going to have a new FO/Coach and likely QB (answer 2). So the time on the roster may be the same but time starting may be reduced. 

Great responses all gang. Appreciate the differing perspectives.
I'm more of a "smash-mouth, pound the rock" guy myself, so many of the perceptions on the QB position elude me. 

All your responses have given me some needed clarity so thanks to you all

I guess I just dont get the love for Keenum or Teddy as a future QB.  Teddy has not played in 2 years and coming off his horrific injury it is an unknown how the knee will hold up over a season.  Besides that he hadnt shown much before the injury.  He did seem to have turned the corner somewhat but we really dont know.  Case did have a great year and he is was great with the short to intermediate passes for the most part and he managed the games well and didnt make many mistakes.  But when he did it was usually a huge mistake.  Almost lost the Saints game because of an terrible pass.  The pick 6 in the philly game totally changed the momentum of the game.  Yes his arm was hit, but look at the replay, that ball was picked regardless it was a horrible decision.  Case does not have the arm to make the deep throw nor is he very accurate when throwing it the same goes for Teddy.  How many long passes were way under thrown throughout the season, many if not most.  The vikings were bailed out with PI calls on some of them.  Most of the long passes he did complete were lobbed and Theilan and Diggs again bailed him out, or they were shorter passes which the receivers turned into long passes with run after catch.  I think philly exposed this.  They packed 8 or 9 in the box continually and made Case beat them with the longer throws which he could not do.  I dont mean this to be a knock on Case he had a career season but the fact of the matter is with the vikings defense this season he really didnt have to do alot.  He was middle of the pack in yards per game at 253 yards/game and if you take out his 3 games over 300 yards and also throw out the Bears and Steelers games which he did not play the entire game he only averaged 202 yds.  The 253 was 7th among playoff teams.  I understand he alone DID NOT lose the championship game, I think we were out coached and the defense did not show up.  Case proved with the best season of his career that he can take a team with a dominant defense to the playoffs but thats where it ends, he cant win a game for you when the defense is having a bad day or when the other team is taking away the run game and forcing him to throw.  If healthy Bradford should be the choice to start with Teddy coming in to compete and be the back up.  The kicker with Bradford is of course the knee so it would have to be some kind of contract with an injury clause so the team would not be on the hook for 20 million.  All this being said sadly Case may be the best option with  Cousins being the best FA option out there.  The fact of the matter is in the last 22 years the super bowl champion has had a legitimate franchise QB 21 times.  The Ravens being the exception with Dilfer.    

@"Jamie Demaree" said: I guess I just dont get the love for Keenum or Teddy as a future QB.  Teddy has not played in 2 years and coming off his horrific injury it is an unknown how the knee will hold up over a season.  Besides that he hadnt shown much before the injury.  He did seem to have turned the corner somewhat but we really dont know.  Case did have a great year and he is was great with the short to intermediate passes for the most part and he managed the games well and didnt make many mistakes.  But when he did it was usually a huge mistake.  Almost lost the Saints game because of an terrible pass.  The pick 6 in the philly game totally changed the momentum of the game.  Yes his arm was hit, but look at the replay, that ball was picked regardless it was a horrible decision.  Case does not have the arm to make the deep throw nor is he very accurate when throwing it the same goes for Teddy.  How many long passes were way under thrown throughout the season, many if not most.  The vikings were bailed out with PI calls on some of them.  Most of the long passes he did complete were lobbed and Theilan and Diggs again bailed him out, or they were shorter passes which the receivers turned into long passes with run after catch.  I think philly exposed this.  They packed 8 or 9 in the box continually and made Case beat them with the longer throws which he could not do.  I dont mean this to be a knock on Case he had a career season but the fact of the matter is with the vikings defense this season he really didnt have to do alot.  He was middle of the pack in yards per game at 253 yards/game and if you take out his 3 games over 300 yards and also throw out the Bears and Steelers games which he did not play the entire game he only averaged 202 yds.  The 253 was 7th among playoff teams.  I understand he alone DID NOT lose the championship game, I think we were out coached and the defense did not show up.  Case proved with the best season of his career that he can take a team with a dominant defense to the playoffs but thats where it ends, he cant win a game for you when the defense is having a bad day or when the other team is taking away the run game and forcing him to throw.  If healthy Bradford should be the choice to start with Teddy coming in to compete and be the back up.  The kicker with Bradford is of course the knee so it would have to be some kind of contract with an injury clause so the team would not be on the hook for 20 million.  All this being said sadly Case may be the best option with  Cousins being the best FA option out there.  The fact of the matter is in the last 22 years the super bowl champion has had a legitimate franchise QB 21 times.  The Ravens being the exception with Dilfer.    

I just don't think Teddy is going to be anyone's backup. He's going to go where he is at least given a chance at the starting job. And someone, if not us, is going to give him that chance with a nice, albeit short-term, deal on the chance that you'll eventually get the pre-injury Teddy, whom I suspect is still very highly thought of in NFL circles.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Jamie Demaree" said: I guess I just dont get the love for Keenum or Teddy as a future QB.  Teddy has not played in 2 years and coming off his horrific injury it is an unknown how the knee will hold up over a season.  Besides that he hadnt shown much before the injury.  He did seem to have turned the corner somewhat but we really dont know.  Case did have a great year and he is was great with the short to intermediate passes for the most part and he managed the games well and didnt make many mistakes.  But when he did it was usually a huge mistake.  Almost lost the Saints game because of an terrible pass.  The pick 6 in the philly game totally changed the momentum of the game.  Yes his arm was hit, but look at the replay, that ball was picked regardless it was a horrible decision.  Case does not have the arm to make the deep throw nor is he very accurate when throwing it the same goes for Teddy.  How many long passes were way under thrown throughout the season, many if not most.  The vikings were bailed out with PI calls on some of them.  Most of the long passes he did complete were lobbed and Theilan and Diggs again bailed him out, or they were shorter passes which the receivers turned into long passes with run after catch.  I think philly exposed this.  They packed 8 or 9 in the box continually and made Case beat them with the longer throws which he could not do.  I dont mean this to be a knock on Case he had a career season but the fact of the matter is with the vikings defense this season he really didnt have to do alot.  He was middle of the pack in yards per game at 253 yards/game and if you take out his 3 games over 300 yards and also throw out the Bears and Steelers games which he did not play the entire game he only averaged 202 yds.  The 253 was 7th among playoff teams.  I understand he alone DID NOT lose the championship game, I think we were out coached and the defense did not show up.  Case proved with the best season of his career that he can take a team with a dominant defense to the playoffs but thats where it ends, he cant win a game for you when the defense is having a bad day or when the other team is taking away the run game and forcing him to throw.  If healthy Bradford should be the choice to start with Teddy coming in to compete and be the back up.  The kicker with Bradford is of course the knee so it would have to be some kind of contract with an injury clause so the team would not be on the hook for 20 million.  All this being said sadly Case may be the best option with  Cousins being the best FA option out there.  The fact of the matter is in the last 22 years the super bowl champion has had a legitimate franchise QB 21 times.  The Ravens being the exception with Dilfer.    

I agree with you on Case and Sam. I think someone, hopefully not us, is going to overpay for Case Keenum. I wouldn't mind bringing him back, but this talk of $20M per is just batty IMO.

I just don't think Teddy is going to be anyone's backup. He's going to go where he is at least given a chance at the starting job. And someone, if not us, is going to give him that chance with a nice, albeit short-term, deal on the chance that you'll eventually get the pre-injury Teddy, whom I suspect is still very highly thought of in NFL circles.

Seems like as good a place for this comment as anywhere else: MAYBE with Cook back, we can get by with a less-than-superstar QB?  Our running attack was decent- in spurts... but, frankly, NO ONE really had to worry about it.  They could focus on stopping our passing game (which wasn't much to write home about, either).  BUT... if Cook comes back and picks up where he left off, I really do think that we might be able to compete for a SB with Case (or Teddy).  But that's predicated on Cook coming back and being one of the best RBs in the league.

@"Jamie Demaree" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Jamie Demaree" said: I guess I just dont get the love for Keenum or Teddy as a future QB.  Teddy has not played in 2 years and coming off his horrific injury it is an unknown how the knee will hold up over a season.  Besides that he hadnt shown much before the injury.  He did seem to have turned the corner somewhat but we really dont know.  Case did have a great year and he is was great with the short to intermediate passes for the most part and he managed the games well and didnt make many mistakes.  But when he did it was usually a huge mistake.  Almost lost the Saints game because of an terrible pass.  The pick 6 in the philly game totally changed the momentum of the game.  Yes his arm was hit, but look at the replay, that ball was picked regardless it was a horrible decision.  Case does not have the arm to make the deep throw nor is he very accurate when throwing it the same goes for Teddy.  How many long passes were way under thrown throughout the season, many if not most.  The vikings were bailed out with PI calls on some of them.  Most of the long passes he did complete were lobbed and Theilan and Diggs again bailed him out, or they were shorter passes which the receivers turned into long passes with run after catch.  I think philly exposed this.  They packed 8 or 9 in the box continually and made Case beat them with the longer throws which he could not do.  I dont mean this to be a knock on Case he had a career season but the fact of the matter is with the vikings defense this season he really didnt have to do alot.  He was middle of the pack in yards per game at 253 yards/game and if you take out his 3 games over 300 yards and also throw out the Bears and Steelers games which he did not play the entire game he only averaged 202 yds.  The 253 was 7th among playoff teams.  I understand he alone DID NOT lose the championship game, I think we were out coached and the defense did not show up.  Case proved with the best season of his career that he can take a team with a dominant defense to the playoffs but thats where it ends, he cant win a game for you when the defense is having a bad day or when the other team is taking away the run game and forcing him to throw.  If healthy Bradford should be the choice to start with Teddy coming in to compete and be the back up.  The kicker with Bradford is of course the knee so it would have to be some kind of contract with an injury clause so the team would not be on the hook for 20 million.  All this being said sadly Case may be the best option with  Cousins being the best FA option out there.  The fact of the matter is in the last 22 years the super bowl champion has had a legitimate franchise QB 21 times.  The Ravens being the exception with Dilfer.    

I agree with you on Case and Sam. I think someone, hopefully not us, is going to overpay for Case Keenum. I wouldn't mind bringing him back, but this talk of $20M per is just batty IMO.

I just don't think Teddy is going to be anyone's backup. He's going to go where he is at least given a chance at the starting job. And someone, if not us, is going to give him that chance with a nice, albeit short-term, deal on the chance that you'll eventually get the pre-injury Teddy, whom I suspect is still very highly thought of in NFL circles.

I cant disagree with any of what you said, someone will over pay Case, franchising him at 20 million would be utterly stupid when we could have cousins for that price. As for Teddy someone will more than likely give him shot as a starter and he may do ok.  I just dont want an average ok QB, this team is ready to compete for a SB now. It is going to take Teddy time to get back, and even if he does will he be anything more than a middle of the pack NFL QB ?  I dont think the vikings can take that chance.  If they do it will make the GM a genius for the decision or unemployed for the decision.

@"MaroonBells" said: I think pedigree plays a big part. If you draft a guy in the first round and he has all of the characteristics you're looking for (experience, size, arm talent, composure, leadership), that guy is going to get a lot more time than someone without those characteristics. 

To make matters even more difficult, there are so many factors that contribute to (or disguise) a QB's true ability. Health, stability, supporting cast. 

Sam Bradford is the perfect example. #1 overall pick with everything you want. But you put him on a terrible team, he gets hurt a couple times, and everyone thinks he's a bust. But you could see big time talent in flashes. Rick gambled on that, and whether he won or not still remains to be seen. Yeah, he got hurt AGAIN, and that is part of the equation, but I don't think there's any more doubt that with the right team around him, he could still be the elite QB he was drafted to be. 

I've said it a million times, but it's so important to factor in supporting cast, whether you're talking about Sam, Teddy, Case, Carr...I think there are maybe only 1 or 2 QBs in the NFL whose ability transcends supporting cast. But even among the 2nd tier QBs, you can look at the careers of Ben, Rivers, Eli, Flacco, Ryan and you can pretty much match up their ups and downs with the ups and downs of their supporting cast. 

Everything is a gamble when it comes to the QBs who are currently with the team and those expected to be available in FA.
The situation with the Vikes gets even murkier when you take away Shumar for yet to be named OC.

Will Teddy explode and become a superstar or just be mediocre or regress, Will Sams knee hold up a few more seasons, will Case ever be able to recreate the extraordinary year he had this year? WTFK?  Not even the coaches can predict any of it.

Some here want to hold out for someone, anyone who can loft the team up on their shoulders and carry them to victory!!!  They have some dreamy idea about what they want in a QB but yet have no idea who that person might be or how the Vikes might acquire them.  Maybe Erin will hear their pleas and donn the majestic purple.

Overall Id like people to realize none of us know shit and to become a little more tolerant of other people’s viewpoints, get over your man crushes and wait to see what happens.

@"pumpf" said: Seems like as good a place for this comment as anywhere else: MAYBE with Cook back, we can get by with a less-than-superstar QB?  Our running attack was decent- in spurts... but, frankly, NO ONE really had to worry about it.  They could focus on stopping our passing game (which wasn't much to write home about, either).  BUT... if Cook comes back and picks up where he left off, I really do think that we might be able to compete for a SB with Case (or Teddy).  But that's predicated on Cook coming back and being one of the best RBs in the league.

@"Jamie Demaree" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Jamie Demaree" said: I guess I just dont get the love for Keenum or Teddy as a future QB.  Teddy has not played in 2 years and coming off his horrific injury it is an unknown how the knee will hold up over a season.  Besides that he hadnt shown much before the injury.  He did seem to have turned the corner somewhat but we really dont know.  Case did have a great year and he is was great with the short to intermediate passes for the most part and he managed the games well and didnt make many mistakes.  But when he did it was usually a huge mistake.  Almost lost the Saints game because of an terrible pass.  The pick 6 in the philly game totally changed the momentum of the game.  Yes his arm was hit, but look at the replay, that ball was picked regardless it was a horrible decision.  Case does not have the arm to make the deep throw nor is he very accurate when throwing it the same goes for Teddy.  How many long passes were way under thrown throughout the season, many if not most.  The vikings were bailed out with PI calls on some of them.  Most of the long passes he did complete were lobbed and Theilan and Diggs again bailed him out, or they were shorter passes which the receivers turned into long passes with run after catch.  I think philly exposed this.  They packed 8 or 9 in the box continually and made Case beat them with the longer throws which he could not do.  I dont mean this to be a knock on Case he had a career season but the fact of the matter is with the vikings defense this season he really didnt have to do alot.  He was middle of the pack in yards per game at 253 yards/game and if you take out his 3 games over 300 yards and also throw out the Bears and Steelers games which he did not play the entire game he only averaged 202 yds.  The 253 was 7th among playoff teams.  I understand he alone DID NOT lose the championship game, I think we were out coached and the defense did not show up.  Case proved with the best season of his career that he can take a team with a dominant defense to the playoffs but thats where it ends, he cant win a game for you when the defense is having a bad day or when the other team is taking away the run game and forcing him to throw.  If healthy Bradford should be the choice to start with Teddy coming in to compete and be the back up.  The kicker with Bradford is of course the knee so it would have to be some kind of contract with an injury clause so the team would not be on the hook for 20 million.  All this being said sadly Case may be the best option with  Cousins being the best FA option out there.  The fact of the matter is in the last 22 years the super bowl champion has had a legitimate franchise QB 21 times.  The Ravens being the exception with Dilfer.    

I agree with you on Case and Sam. I think someone, hopefully not us, is going to overpay for Case Keenum. I wouldn't mind bringing him back, but this talk of $20M per is just batty IMO.

I just don't think Teddy is going to be anyone's backup. He's going to go where he is at least given a chance at the starting job. And someone, if not us, is going to give him that chance with a nice, albeit short-term, deal on the chance that you'll eventually get the pre-injury Teddy, whom I suspect is still very highly thought of in NFL circles.

I cant disagree with any of what you said, someone will over pay Case, franchising him at 20 million would be utterly stupid when we could have cousins for that price. As for Teddy someone will more than likely give him shot as a starter and he may do ok.  I just dont want an average ok QB, this team is ready to compete for a SB now. It is going to take Teddy time to get back, and even if he does will he be anything more than a middle of the pack NFL QB ?  I dont think the vikings can take that chance.  If they do it will make the GM a genius for the decision or unemployed for the decision.

I didnt realize cousins was due to make 34 million.  But with Brady, Rogers, Big Ben all making 20-22 million a year and Stafford making 27 there is no way Cousins would get that, unless somebody grossly over paid.  The projected franchise tag for QB is 23.5 million.  When looking at the best in game currently making in that range does anybody think Case Keenum is worth that amount.  As good a year as he had for the Vikings it is the only good season he has had.  Will he regress back to the old Keenum or is this a turning point in his career ?  That is my worry.  If the Vikings had Case on the roster for 3 seasons and he improved the first two and then put together the season he had this year then yes it would give reason to believe he may be the future but with just one good season under his belt I cringe at giving him that kind of money.  Scott Mitchell had a great season once also.

@"Jamie Demaree" said: I didnt realize cousins was due to make 34 million.  But with Brady, Rogers, Big Ben all making 20-22 million a year and Stafford making 27 there is no way Cousins would get that, unless somebody grossly over paid.  The projected franchise tag for QB is 23.5 million.  When looking at the best in game currently making in that range does anybody think Case Keenum is worth that amount.  As good a year as he had for the Vikings it is the only good season he has had.  Will he regress back to the old Keenum or is this a turning point in his career ?  That is my worry.  If the Vikings had Case on the roster for 3 seasons and he improved the first two and then put together the season he had this year then yes it would give reason to believe he may be the future but with just one good season under his belt I cringe at giving him that kind of money.  Scott Mitchell had a great season once also.

@"TBro" said:

Assuming Keenum could get a FA deal worth 18-20 million over 5 years, using  the Franchise Tag is a low risk move for us because we are only obligated for 1 year. Is it it paying him more than he is worth? Sure, but we have the cap space and wouldn't have to commit to a multi year deal if Case can't repeat his level of play from this year. Bradford's $18 million cap hit comes off the books assuming we don't resign him so that's not much of an increase when you add the $2 million we paid Case. I would prefer to use the Transition Tag on Case, but you are still matching another Team's contract that will be a multi-year deal and doesn't leave you with the same flexibility to cut bait if he regresses. 

If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?

@"Norse" said:

@"TBro" said:

Assuming Keenum could get a FA deal worth 18-20 million over 5 years, using  the Franchise Tag is a low risk move for us because we are only obligated for 1 year. Is it it paying him more than he is worth? Sure, but we have the cap space and wouldn't have to commit to a multi year deal if Case can't repeat his level of play from this year. Bradford's $18 million cap hit comes off the books assuming we don't resign him so that's not much of an increase when you add the $2 million we paid Case. I would prefer to use the Transition Tag on Case, but you are still matching another Team's contract that will be a multi-year deal and doesn't leave you with the same flexibility to cut bait if he regresses. 

If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?