Case of the missing horseshoe
Case of the Missing Horseshoe
Another post NFCCG loss wrapu-p, what went wrong.
And before you jump all over me for writing an obviously anti-Case case, please understand that I have no control over my headlines. That is up to my editor. Who in this case is my overactive mind following another heartbreaking loss. It just popped into my head and so I was forced to write and article to fill the rest of the white space.
And it isn't anti-Case, it is just a clever ploy to get you to read this. I could torture the analogy by making it a who-done-it mystery, but that seems like to much work. So here is my breakdown on what the #%$^& went wrong. Again!
The missing horseshoe has much to do with the results I am afraid. But it wasn't so much missing, but did what horseshoes are known to do, it changed possessions, took the luck and went east, found a new poor bastard to torture. Did anyone else get the feeling that Foles found Case's horseshoe? The plays that we were accustomed to seeing, the bounces that went our way this season suddenly didn't. The "how did he escape that" was now against us. Foles turned the proverbial dung into miraculous.
Lets take for instance a couple of plays that illustrate this fraction of a second, an inch the other way and the outcome is much different. The INTs by Case and the TDs by Foles. A defender brushes by Case as he throws, contacting his chest and arm enough to take something off the throw and it floats into the hands of the defender who runs back for a TD and changes the whole game. We were in control. We had driven methodically down and score. Then we forced a punt on defense and were back on offense for more. The crowd was quiet, the dog masks were looking kinda silly, and Shurmur was planning on being in Minnesota for a few more weeks. All except for that little hand to the chest of the QB.
Compare that to Foles, who in one instance somehow moved the ball enough to unknowingly avoid Hunter's hand that was swiping at the ball as he was pushed past. Or the should be sack by Griffen and yet somehow Foles steps to the side and avoids both Griffen and another defender to loft the ball to Jefferys for a TD. That was supposed to be Case somehow sliding in the pocket and hitting the big throw. Except for that cursed horseshoe. Or consider the second INT (ignoring the fact that the game was already over), as a forced pass is intercepted and Adam Thielen makes an incredible play to rip the ball out of the defenders hands. But the horseshoe bounced right into the hands of another defender for an INT.
I can't know for certain, but I think Case felt the horseshoe leaving on that first interception. He didn't seem the same after that. His moxie was gone, confidence faded into desperation and Shurmur was seen with his NY or Bust sticker on his playcalling sheet. Certainly there are other things that can explain this in rational terms. Thielen, our #1 WR was hurting. And a low back injury is tough to gut out for a guy that depends on making precise cuts. He played, but was largely missing from the offense. A case could be made that our offensive line didn't protect Keenum well enough, but that doesn't seem to fit the facts early on when the game was still in doubt. Maybe Keenum doesn't like the cold, and that has some merit, but then there is that opening drive. All in all, our offense seemed to suffer from the Case of the Missing Horseshoe.
But then there is the other side of the ball, the defense trying to defend the horseshoe. Anyone that tries to say this loss was all on the offense either has an agenda or was self medicating a bit early. What happened to the vaunted defense? The #1 defense in the league in multiple categories?
In my opinion, and it is hard to admit, but I think we got outcoached. Or at least out schemed. And it isn't entirely out of the question. What do good teams do? They study film, the look for tendencies, they find weaknesses and exploit them. Foles was still an unknown. Having played only a few games, the book wasn't written on him yet. And he was still growing in confidence in Pedersen's offense. The focus was on the RPO, the quick passes that they ran. Foles didn't throw deep, they kept it short and manageable.
So, if you are a coach facing a very tough defense, you can either hunker down and try to survive. Or you can go out in a blaze of glory. The Eagles chose the latter. Foles had gained some confidence and it was time to be unpredictable and go for the big plays. The defense shut them down for the first drive, but then came the double moves. Watching veterans like Smith, Newman and Rhodes bite hard, one has to say they didn't see it coming. None of them expected the deep passes from that offense. And once the horseshoe had made its switch, there was little they could do to stop it. Even when they played it well, somehow they missed a tackle, or let Foles escape. The pick 6 had energized the crowd and the Eagles and they became the team of destiny. At least until they get destroyed on the 1st Sunday in February.
That is the only reason I can think that our defense was exposed so bad. They didn't suddenly forget how to play football, they didn't become lazy and undisciplined. They got outschemed. They had worked on a way to stop the Eagles offense and it was a good plan. Except Pedersen had a better plan. And a QB with a horseshoe stuck up his posterior.
@"greediron" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: I doubt many of us really truly understand the nuances of what Zimmer is trying to do on most plays.. we get the intent of the way they play certain things, but the little things are likely missed by most fans. I have to defer to Geoff when he says that Barr is a big part of what Zim does, does that give him a free pass or mean he cant have a bad game... nope, but I have to wonder how much Zim loses if he doesnt have Barrs length and athleticism out there, how easy that would be to replace, and how many times do we watch a play and think the it should have been Barrs to make but he was actually where he was supposed to be and it was somebody else that wasnt doing their job?I also question how much Griffs injury played against Barr. Griff was handled by 1 man for most of the later part of the season which changed how people were able to play off that side of the line which is where Barr usually played from.
I agree. Barr is so crucial to the defense, his range and ability take away so much.But I have a question, you say Barr usually plays from Griff's side? Are you sure? What I have noticed (and I pay more attention to Smith on this) is that Smith plays the short side of the field while Barr plays the wider (field side).
I dont count snaps, but I usually see him lining up on the right side of the D.
You guys are all much better at the X's and O's of football and your knowledge is appreciated by me. I guess being more of a "see the result of a play" kinda person I just thought I saw tackling issues with, really, the whole team off and on this season, not just Barr. I know we have a very good defense and after suffering through the Frazier years I certainly appreciate what Zim has accomplished with this group. But at times I have felt like this D, with all of its loaded, expensive talent, has had breakdowns in certain phases throughout the season this year. Stats say that they were certainly one of the best. But there were times in the season when the run defense broke down. Then, you have games like the Philly game where tackling was an issue for these guys and pass D was nonexistent. I guess I'm just not buying into what the stats say because I feel like we still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball...which actually is disappointing to me, because of the financial investment in the D and our head coach being a D guru.
Please don't misunderstand me because I know we have a defense that a lot of teams would love to have. I just have a very hard time with how they can collapse and I don't know if it's the character of the team, a confidence issue, or what. In 2016 we had the same guys and that collapse after 5-0 was ridiculous. I felt like it was revisited against the Eagles and that made me not only concerned but pretty frustrated, too.
.@"purplefaithful" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: I doubt many of us really truly understand the nuances of what Zimmer is trying to do on most plays.. we get the intent of the way they play certain things, but the little things are likely missed by most fans. I have to defer to Geoff when he says that Barr is a big part of what Zim does, does that give him a free pass or mean he cant have a bad game... nope, but I have to wonder how much Zim loses if he doesnt have Barrs length and athleticism out there, how easy that would be to replace, and how many times do we watch a play and think the it should have been Barrs to make but he was actually where he was supposed to be and it was somebody else that wasnt doing their job?I also question how much Griffs injury played against Barr. Griff was handled by 1 man for most of the later part of the season which changed how people were able to play off that side of the line which is where Barr usually played from.
Which gets back to a point another poster made elsewhere, if Griff was 50% or so, why not play him situationally and move BROB in the starting line-up and Danielle over to EG's spot?That Plantar Fasciitis was obviously an issue for some time...
Zimmer is still gripping the reigns too tight. He didn't trust Weatherly or Bowers enough to rotate them in with his Starters to keep them fresh. He was too enamored with BRob doing his Roving D-Lineman thing to do the smart thing and have him split snaps with the ineffective Griffin.And he sure put too much faith in the D-Line to generate pressure while using blitz looks to create confusion without actually blitzing that much. There were also few, if any in-game adjustments from the Defense the last 6 quarters.
The good news is that Mike isn't so stuck in his ways that he can't recognize areas for improvement. Handing over playcalling to his DC will be a good start.
I also fully expect a high Round pick on another DE to add to the rotation. Zimmer used 6-8 guys in Cincinnati. I have to believe that once he feels like he has enough horses again he'll get back to that practice.
And getting zilch from the 3T hurts his scheme a lot. For a guy who prefers not to blitz as much as people think having no interior push really puts a lot of pressure on his DEs.
A Safety that actually compliments Smith instead of being not as good at the same things would also help. Sendejo really struggled against Ertz, as I predicted. But Smith did too. Time to get a guy who may.not be as stout in the run or as a blitzer but can lock down in coverage and play a true Center Field.
Look for a high pick on the O-Line and then a very Defense focused Draft. Might also be time for another Veteran CB reclamation project too.
That game was more like the case of the missing game plan. Missing O-line. Missing DB's.
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