One QB in the Hand is Worth Two In the Bush

I think Case's success is scheme and coach specific. With all of the potential Head Coaching openings this offseason, we need to prepare ourselves that Shurmur will be gone. I think plenty of teams will look at his stint with Cleveland and give him a pass. He wasn't great, but had far more success than Hue Jackson and the other Scrubs they've had. His success with Keenum and what he's done with this offense after a full offseason of implementing his system will get him another HC gig in 2018. How does that change your thinking going into the offseason? I could easily see Case following Shurmur to his new Team to be his starting QB. If that happens, you need to draft a QB and sign Teddy. I'm also afraid that the Vikings emotional attachment to Teddy will also sway their decision in who they sign, and who they let walk. 

@"pumpf" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pumpf" said: I *think* we need to treat Case as the starter... with the caveat that he could be beaten out by Teddy... and sign both of them.  Whoever doesn't win the starting job will become trade bait (at some point in the future).  Sloter is our "long-term" #2.

I wish that were possible. Who knows, maybe we can find a way to do it, but unless he turns back into a pumpkin--and that does not seem likely at this point--Keenum is now likely to command a starter's salary, as will Bridgewater. What a happy mess. I just hope to God we make the right decision. But I fear another '98, where we committed to our Cinderella, who quickly turned back into a pumpkin and traded our starter, who went on to win a Super Bowl. This team CANNOT make that mistake again. One thing that gives me hope is that I think we have smarter people in charge now. 

Edit: And, yes, I'm aware that Teddy, with his knee, could also be the pumpkin. 

I'm skeptical that Teddy will get "starters" money.  No one (except the Vikings) have seen him do anything since the injury.  Sure, teams can bring him in and check him out... but, even before his injury, there was more hope for what he could be... than what he actually showed.  At the time of his injury, he was becoming a great "game manager"; he had not shown the ability to take the team on his back and win games for us (single-handedly), like you'd like to see in a starting QB.  Some team... that has everything else in place, except a competent QB, may throw some money at him.  But I don't see any team breaking the bank for Teddy- because he hasn't (yet) shown to be the kind of QB who can win games for you (by himself); but he won't lose them.  How many teams are looking for a QB like that in free agency?  Not many (I don't think... at least not as potential starters)

Look at Cousins in Washington: that guy has been pretty darn good... and there's still questions about him.  I think he'd get alot more money than Teddy.  That's why I think we can sign them both.

@"Purplewhizz" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: I don't think Sam even plays a role in this story, except as perhaps a cautionary tale for the team's approach to Teddy Bridgewater.

As I've said before, in my mind, Thanksgiving saw Case Keenum's narrative turn a corner from "rental QB playing well in a very good offense" to "improving QB who might just be better than anyone thought." Thanksgiving indeed. While it's hard to believe anyone could be playing better than Case right now, I still believe that Teddy, too, would be lighting it up if he were playing, as would Sam. 

So, who do we give our money to? With Teddy's knee a question mark, Bradford's knee a caution flag draped over it, and Keenum seemingly improving with each game, I think it's now a legitimate question. Obviously, It would be foolish to do anything money related now, but it's going to be an interesting off season. I'm betting Mike and Rick are merrily flummoxed. That is to say they're giddy at the results, but have absolutely no clue about what they're going to do, other than just watch it play out like the rest of us. 

I question whether Teddy would be able to make this offensive line look as good as Keenum has.  Keenum's ability to move around and escape has been one of his biggest strengths.   Bradford did well in the first game because he can get rid of the ball quickly and accurately.  I actually think Teddy may struggle the most of the three, as his decision making may be slower due to rust and his escapability may not be what it was prior to injury.

@"pumpf" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pumpf" said: I *think* we need to treat Case as the starter... with the caveat that he could be beaten out by Teddy... and sign both of them.  Whoever doesn't win the starting job will become trade bait (at some point in the future).  Sloter is our "long-term" #2.

I wish that were possible. Who knows, maybe we can find a way to do it, but unless he turns back into a pumpkin--and that does not seem likely at this point--Keenum is now likely to command a starter's salary, as will Bridgewater. What a happy mess. I just hope to God we make the right decision. But I fear another '98, where we committed to our Cinderella, who quickly turned back into a pumpkin and traded our starter, who went on to win a Super Bowl. This team CANNOT make that mistake again. One thing that gives me hope is that I think we have smarter people in charge now. 

Edit: And, yes, I'm aware that Teddy, with his knee, could also be the pumpkin. 

I'm skeptical that Teddy will get "starters" money.  No one (except the Vikings) have seen him do anything since the injury.  Sure, teams can bring him in and check him out... but, even before his injury, there was more hope for what he could be... than what he actually showed.  At the time of his injury, he was becoming a great "game manager"; he had not shown the ability to take the team on his back and win games for us (single-handedly), like you'd like to see in a starting QB.  Some team... that has everything else in place, except a competent QB, may throw some money at him.  But I don't see any team breaking the bank for Teddy- because he hasn't (yet) shown to be the kind of QB who can win games for you (by himself); but he won't lose them.  How many teams are looking for a QB like that in free agency?  Not many (I don't think... at least not as potential starters)

Look at Cousins in Washington: that guy has been pretty darn good... and there's still questions about him.  I think he'd get alot more money than Teddy.  That's why I think we can sign them both.

We have a lot of football to go yet before anyone has to make decisions.  Too many possibles from one and done to winning it all.  We dont even know who else will be on the open market. (Rodgers?)

But I agree with Pumpf, Teddy would only command starter money in Minnesota. I think he tests the open market, signs with Minnesota for more than the minimum plus incentives and a chance to compete for starter.

I think Sam plays somewhere for a decent price.  He showed some success here. If he can pass a a physical someone will pay him. Plenty of teams would be glad to have him holding a clipboard. Chicago?

Maybe this article in the Pioneer Press was delusional, but a "so-called" Cap Expert suggested Keenum could earn a 3-yr contract worth $15-18 mm / year, and Bridgewater could be signed for around $7 mm.  That would be a very friendly commitment to the QB position, from a cap perspective. 

“A lot will depend on how the year ends, but based on how he’s doing right now, if I had to put an estimate on it, I would say he probably is going to get a contract worth about $15 million a year, like three years, $45 million,” said Jason Fitzgerald, who runs the web site OvertheCap.com.
Fitzgerald based his projection in part on the three-year, $45 million free-agent contract that Mike Glennon got from the Chicago Bears last spring. That deal turned out to be a mistake; Glennon lost his job Mitchell Trubisky after four games. But it showed how teams value quarterbacks in a league without a lot of great ones.
Fitzgerald said if Keenum were to lead Minnesota on an extended playoff run, his market value could rise to as much as $18 million annually. He does not see a scenario, though, in which Keenum could command the franchise tag from the Vikings, which would be more than $20 million a year.

http://www.twincities.com/2017/11/25/salary-cap-analyst-foresees-vikings-qb-case-keenum-commanding-15-million-a-year-as-impending-free-agent/

A good article Tom, thanks.
Its going to just get more interesting

I have a huge Viking fan nephew that lives in the Denver area, and says their sports talk radio discusses new QBs for the Broncos all the time.  Two names that are mentioned quite often are Case and Teddy.  Denver would love to have either, and I'm sure there are other teams that could drive up the price too.

I'd be surprised to see both Teddy and Case as Vikings next season.  Could happen though.

I think Case is a better 'scrambler/runner' but pre injury Teddy was better moving in the pocket.  Teddy had a better sense on how to side step or slide in the pocket while Case is a little more likely to bail and just go Fran Tarkington when he feels pressure. 

There was a video a few days ago praising Case's pocket movement and he kind of rolled left in the video(which was praised) but the reality is a small slide up in the pocket could have been better because there was still a sound pocket, Case uncovered left and the DE came off of Rieff to chase.  A step forward would have kept all the OL engaged.  But it worked for Case.

Not that I'm real critical of the play just that they both move well just differently and there is no way to know how Teddy would look unless he gets time to do it.  Case is making it tougher and more expensive all the time.

@"HappyViking" said: I won't be surprised to see Case being the only Viking QB getting shiny new contract for the team next year.  With home field advantage at stake, I seriously doubt Teddy sees any meaningful play time this season, if Case stays healthy.

What if Sam proves he's 100% healthy come playoff time?  I think the team would still stick with Case.  He's playing that well, and is way more mobile than Sam.

If the Vikes really wanted a QB battle, then they'd have to sign them to new contracts.  Would they even consider doing that?  I think there's a good chance only one of the three gets a new deal from the Vikes, and the others walk.

The team knows what they have in Case, and are probably just as surprised as us fans that he just keeps improving.  What a strange year, and nobody expected to see Case be the hard earned #1 QB for the team. 

It took awhile for me to believe, and I do now.  He's the real deal, and it looks like the Vikes finally found their starting QB.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pumpf" said: I *think* we need to treat Case as the starter... with the caveat that he could be beaten out by Teddy... and sign both of them.  Whoever doesn't win the starting job will become trade bait (at some point in the future).  Sloter is our "long-term" #2.

I wish that were possible. Who knows, maybe we can find a way to do it, but unless he turns back into a pumpkin--and that does not seem likely at this point--Keenum is now likely to command a starter's salary, as will Bridgewater. What a happy mess. I just hope to God we make the right decision. But I fear another '98, where we committed to our Cinderella, who quickly turned back into a pumpkin and traded our starter, who went on to win a Super Bowl. This team CANNOT make that mistake again. One thing that gives me hope is that I think we have smarter people in charge now. 

Edit: And, yes, I'm aware that Teddy, with his knee, could also be the pumpkin. 

@"medaille" said:

@"HappyViking" said:

@"NorthernCalVike" said: I still want to see how Teddy would perform with this O-Line / Offensive scheme. I think he would be excellent. Going to be very interesting off season, wether we win the Super Bowl or not - BIG QB Decisions will be made.

I see either Teddy or Case being our starter next year, with the young guy we picked up, Sloter, as the back up IF he has been showing great promise.

How much money would that tie up in the QB position to sign them both?  Case is going to get a starting QB salary with the way he's playing, but Teddy may get that too.   I think the Vikes have to go with a proven QB, and I agree.  Teddy might be better, but maybe not.  If Case is playing well, and the team is winning, then who cares if Sam and Teddy leave?  We don't need two starting QBs.

I think it would have to be north of $30M ($15M each) and probably closer to $40M.  I just can't imagine either QB accepting less at this point.  I don't think either QB would get a $25M/year contract.  

I really think the only way to keep them both is if
something goes real wrong with Keenum this year to drop his value or we
successfully toll Bridgewater’s contract.

I just don’t think we’ll be able to afford to keep both of
them if we have to give them their market value right now.

@"TBro" said: I think Case's success is scheme and coach specific. With all of the potential Head Coaching openings this offseason, we need to prepare ourselves that Shurmur will be gone. I think plenty of teams will look at his stint with Cleveland and give him a pass. He wasn't great, but had far more success than Hue Jackson and the other Scrubs they've had. His success with Keenum and what he's done with this offense after a full offseason of implementing his system will get him another HC gig in 2018. How does that change your thinking going into the offseason? I could easily see Case following Shurmur to his new Team to be his starting QB. If that happens, you need to draft a QB and sign Teddy. I'm also afraid that the Vikings emotional attachment to Teddy will also sway their decision in who they sign, and who they let walk. 

How is it that Case Keenum, the all-time major college passing leader in completions (1,546), yards (19,217) and touchdowns (155), was not selected in the 2012 NFL draft?
Apparently NFL scouts weren’t impressed, even with his final college game and Levine’s first as a head coach:
Levine was a receivers and special teams coach for Sumlin from 2008 to 2011, the bulk of Keenum’s career. He saw the amazing performances from Keenum, and also what happened to the Cougars in 2010 when Case tore an ACL in the third game of the season at UCLA.

Maybe that was it … the NFL teams thought Keenum was too old to draft at 23? Or his arm was tired from throwing 2,229 collegiate passes?

“I can remember vividly an NFL scout telling me, ‘If Case was 2 inches taller, he would be drafted in the first round,’ ” Levine said. “And the other thing you always heard was, ‘He’s a system quarterback.’
“They tried to come up with every reason they could to ignore the stats he had and the games he won. Whenever I talked to someone from the NFL, I would say, ‘Those stats and wins … they were not by accident.’ ”
http://www.startribune.com/vikings-quarterback-case-keenum-was-so-good-he-made-and-broke-coaching-careers-at-houston/462330323/

I still question Case's arm strength,   as much success as he is having IMO a strong arm is key component at times for a long term successful QB.  I see the Vikes hand getting forced on this deal and this years squad having enough success to force Ricks hand and signing Case long term thusly losing Teddy and the whole thing going to shit next fall.  Teddys arm isnt super stong either,  but he has more zip than Case has shown and I think Teddy is young enough to still get stronger while I think Case is what Case will be.  I agree that Case will be serviceable in the right O,  but I doubt we are able to retain Shurmur unless we win the whole damn thing... and then only likely for 1 year.

#glasshalffull.

@"JimmyinSD" said: I still question Case's arm strength,   as much success as he is having IMO a strong arm is key component at times for a long term successful QB.  I see the Vikes hand getting forced on this deal and this years squad having enough success to force Ricks hand and signing Case long term thusly losing Teddy and the whole thing going to shit next fall.  Teddys arm isnt super stong either,  but he has more zip than Case has shown and I think Teddy is young enough to still get stronger while I think Case is what Case will be.  I agree that Case will be serviceable in the right O,  but I doubt we are able to retain Shurmur unless we win the whole damn thing... and then only likely for 1 year.

#glasshalffull.

Arm strength, cinderella, system qb, doesn't make second reads, gunslinger, OC dependent, too short, etc, etc, etc,

At some point we either put our faith in the guy or not. We believe that what we're seeing is extendable over time or not. We have the belief that more improvement is possible or not. 

That time isn't now, cause he's the clear starter this season. But unless something really crazy unfolds the next 8 weeks, the offseason @ QB is going to be a doozy - or maybe not. 

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pumpf" said: I *think* we need to treat Case as the starter... with the caveat that he could be beaten out by Teddy... and sign both of them.  Whoever doesn't win the starting job will become trade bait (at some point in the future).  Sloter is our "long-term" #2.

I wish that were possible. Who knows, maybe we can find a way to do it, but unless he turns back into a pumpkin--and that does not seem likely at this point--Keenum is now likely to command a starter's salary, as will Bridgewater. What a happy mess. I just hope to God we make the right decision. But I fear another '98, where we committed to our Cinderella, who quickly turned back into a pumpkin and traded our starter, who went on to win a Super Bowl. This team CANNOT make that mistake again. One thing that gives me hope is that I think we have smarter people in charge now. 

Edit: And, yes, I'm aware that Teddy, with his knee, could also be the pumpkin. 

Well, hind-sight is 20/20...But McCombs, Woods and Tim Connolly should have known better than that. Watching Cunnigham piss down his leg the second 1/2 of the NFCCG should have been a clear enough warning. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pumpf" said: I *think* we need to treat Case as the starter... with the caveat that he could be beaten out by Teddy... and sign both of them.  Whoever doesn't win the starting job will become trade bait (at some point in the future).  Sloter is our "long-term" #2.

I wish that were possible. Who knows, maybe we can find a way to do it, but unless he turns back into a pumpkin--and that does not seem likely at this point--Keenum is now likely to command a starter's salary, as will Bridgewater. What a happy mess. I just hope to God we make the right decision. But I fear another '98, where we committed to our Cinderella, who quickly turned back into a pumpkin and traded our starter, who went on to win a Super Bowl. This team CANNOT make that mistake again. One thing that gives me hope is that I think we have smarter people in charge now. 

Edit: And, yes, I'm aware that Teddy, with his knee, could also be the pumpkin. 

Well, hind-sight is 20/20...But McCombs, Woods and Tim Connolly should have known better than that. Watching Cunnigham piss down his leg the second 1/2 of the NFCCG should have been a clear enough warning. 

I could be wrong, but I think they extended him before all that happened.. I think it happened late in the year? I could probably Google it. But I do know when they extended him (basically spelling Brad Johnson's fate) I 'wove a tapestry of obscenity that is still hanging in space' over Denver, Colorado, to borrow a great piece of writing from Jean Shepherd :-)

@"JimmyinSD" said: I still question Case's arm strength,   as much success as he is having IMO a strong arm is key component at times for a long term successful QB.  I see the Vikes hand getting forced on this deal and this years squad having enough success to force Ricks hand and signing Case long term thusly losing Teddy and the whole thing going to shit next fall.  Teddys arm isnt super stong either,  but he has more zip than Case has shown and I think Teddy is young enough to still get stronger while I think Case is what Case will be.  I agree that Case will be serviceable in the right O,  but I doubt we are able to retain Shurmur unless we win the whole damn thing... and then only likely for 1 year.

#glasshalffull.

Teddy always had that bad tendency to throw off his back foot and/or drop his elbow and basically just flick the ball down the field.

@"SFVikingFan" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said: I still question Case's arm strength,   as much success as he is having IMO a strong arm is key component at times for a long term successful QB.  I see the Vikes hand getting forced on this deal and this years squad having enough success to force Ricks hand and signing Case long term thusly losing Teddy and the whole thing going to shit next fall.  Teddys arm isnt super stong either,  but he has more zip than Case has shown and I think Teddy is young enough to still get stronger while I think Case is what Case will be.  I agree that Case will be serviceable in the right O,  but I doubt we are able to retain Shurmur unless we win the whole damn thing... and then only likely for 1 year.

#glasshalffull.

I wholly disagree that Teddy has shown a stronger arm than Case so far.  You might have a point regarding Teddy's age and the possibility his arm will get stronger, but that's an unknown, and from what I've seen, I would say Case throws the harder ball and I don't see any issue at all with his arm strength.

Teddy always had that bad tendency to throw off his back foot and/or drop his elbow and basically just flick the ball down the field.

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said: I still question Case's arm strength,   as much success as he is having IMO a strong arm is key component at times for a long term successful QB.  I see the Vikes hand getting forced on this deal and this years squad having enough success to force Ricks hand and signing Case long term thusly losing Teddy and the whole thing going to shit next fall.  Teddys arm isnt super stong either,  but he has more zip than Case has shown and I think Teddy is young enough to still get stronger while I think Case is what Case will be.  I agree that Case will be serviceable in the right O,  but I doubt we are able to retain Shurmur unless we win the whole damn thing... and then only likely for 1 year.

#glasshalffull.

Lol, love the hashtag...

Arm strength, cinderella, system qb, doesn't make second reads, gunslinger, OC dependent, too short, etc, etc, etc,

At some point we either put our faith in the guy or not. We believe that what we're seeing is extendable over time or not. We have the belief that more improvement is possible or not. 

That time isn't now, cause he's the clear starter this season. But unless something really crazy unfolds the next 8 weeks, the offseason @ QB is going to be a doozy - or maybe not.