Experts are split on what will happen Sunday in Tampa.

📰: https://t.co/lgaPMWnQhK pic.twitter.com/Lz7KaFp154

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 25, 2026

https://www.vikings.com/news/nfl-expert-picks-divided-buccaneers-week-3

NFL Expert Picks: Opinions Divided for Vikings at Buccaneers in 2026 Week 3

Long before sharing NFL fields, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield first crossed paths in an ultra-competitive Oklahoma quarterbacks room. Their fiery drive propelled them to historic heights as back-to-back Heisman winners and No. 1 overall draft picks.

"That's my guy. I got to see him every day in college, so I respect the hell out of Baker and what he's been through and what type of player he is and person he is," Murray told Twin Cities media on Thursday. "We competed every day. I mean, you wouldn't imagine the amount of time we spent together. … Anything we were doing, we were talking trash to each other, competing. And after practice, we'd ride home together, and it was all great."

On Sunday, the pair will reunite when Murray and the Vikings (2-0) visit Mayfield and the Buccaneers (0-2) at 3:05 p.m. (CT).

Mayfield has encountered heavy turbulence behind his offensive line to start the year. Despite facing a blitz rate of only 21.1%, he has been pressured on 40.3% of his dropbacks, taking seven sacks and totaling a -20.1 EPA on those plays, according to NFL Media Research. That has fueled a minus-four turnover margin (tied for the second worst in the NFL) for the Bucs, whose five giveaways have resulted in 27 opposing points, with only Atlanta's (28 points) being higher. A bright spot for Mayfield specifically is he has only one incompletion (11-of-12) with a touchdown and a passer rating of 125.0 against the blitz this season.

Facing Minnesota Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores' scheme represents an even steeper challenge, though. Per Pro Football Focus, the Vikings have blitzed on a league-high 79.3% of their snaps through two games (Carolina has the next highest mark at 53.2%, followed by Tampa Bay in third at 48.6%). Minnesota has racked up eight sacks and four takeaways; the plus-four turnover margin is a league best, with the Vikings scoring 14 points off turnovers (tied for fifth) while only allowing three from their opponents.

For Murray, Sunday marks his return after exiting the Week 1 opener with a concussion after 11 snaps and sitting out of last weekend's victory at Chicago. Historically, Murray holds a 3-0 career advantage over Mayfield in their NFL head-to-head matchups (winning in 2019, 2021, and 2022).

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Buccaneers 21, Vikings 20 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

The Vikings are 2-0, while the Bucs are 0-2 and coming off a bad offensive showing in the upset loss against the Browns. That's never a good way to go into a game against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense. Kyler Murray is back for the Vikings, but this one will be won by the Bucs defense. They finally step up.

Vikings 21, Buccaneers 19 – Bill Bender, Sporting News

The Vikings have eight sacks and are allowing 12.5 points per game through two weeks under Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, and Baker Mayfield has struggled with turnovers through an 0-2 start. It's a desperation spot for the Buccaneers at home, and Kyler Murray is expected to return from a concussion just in time for the game.

Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Buccaneers aren't 0-2 bad. The Vikings aren't 2-0 good. Something will give here. Tampa Bay revs up its attack with Mayfield hitting on some big passes vs. the blitz.

2 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, NFL.com

Analysis from NFL.com's Brooke Cersosimo: There's early concern around Zac Robinson's offense in Tampa. My colleague Nick Shook's assessment of Baker Mayfield under his nth OC said it all: The veteran QB is uncomfortable in this scheme at this juncture. Having to right the ship against a blitz-happy Vikings defense feels like an uphill climb, despite Mayfield performing relatively well in such situations. When blitzed this season, he has a 68.8% success rate, the second highest among qualified QBs, compared to a 39.3% mark in 2025, the third lowest, per NGS. IF Baker can navigate Brian Flores' ferocious front, deciphering when the no-nonsense DC is sending the house or dropping guys into coverage, the Bucs should stay competitive. … With Kyler Murray set to return, we should (finally) get a better idea of what Kevin O'Connell's offense looks like close to full strength. … These teams are trending in opposite directions heading into this NFC clash.

5 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report analysis Brad Gagnon: The Bucs are now 2-9 in their last 11 games. It's time to accept that this team needs a rebuild. I expect them to struggle mightily against Minnesota's defense and Justin Jefferson in another home loss.

Bleacher Report analysis Brent Sobleski: Baker Mayfield needs to get out of the current funk in which he finds himself. Brian Flores' ultra-aggressive defense certainly won't make matters any easier on Tampa Bay's recently re-signed quarterback.

Mayfield tends to be at his worst when he's pressing. A week ago, the matchup against the Cleveland Browns was viewed as a revenge game. Clearly, the Bucs QB was too amped up and made too many mistakes. As long as Mayfield makes the proper pre-snap determinations, Tampa should have enough offensively to pull out a victory, even with Kyler Murray back in the Vikings lineup.

4 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

7 of 11 experts pick the Vikings, ESPN

6 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic

Vikings at Bucs Week - 1997: In a defensive battle, Tony Dungy's Bucs hold Min to 10 points, but the Viking defense holds Tamp to just 6 points. Double D David Palmer gets the Vikings in scoring range for a TD and that is all that was needed. Brad Johnson leads the Vikes at QB pic.twitter.com/KYlsycw1n0

— VikeFans (@VikeFans) September 25, 2026

The Vikings are 33-24 all-time against the Buccaneers including 14-14 on the road.

Both teams were part of the NFC Central before realignment in 2002. pic.twitter.com/u4b17LkIHv

— SleeperVikings (@SleeperVikings) September 25, 2026

NFC North at the moment...
Bears down to QB3
Packers taking a beating from an 0-2 team at home
Lions No. 31 in scoring defense

Everything coming up Purple

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) September 25, 2026

Jerome Ford will wear number 34 for the #Vikings.

— VikingzFanPage @vikingzfanpage Sep 25, 2026

𝕏 X / Twitter — VikingzFanPage @vikingzfanpage

Jerome Ford will wear number 34 for the #Vikings.

View on X

I’ll assume he’s been called up, but I haven’t seen it yet.

Johnny Hekker will wear number 6 for the #Vikings. pic.twitter.com/J83tqkF6wS

— VikingzFanPage (@vikingzfanpage) September 25, 2026

"Baker Mayfield has the worst EPA vs disguised coverages in two weeks this season. Now he faces Brian Flores, whose defense basically disguises everything.
On the contrary, Baker also has a very high completion percentage against the blitz."

-@DexsTweets on how Brian Flores'… pic.twitter.com/F4w8LEvqME

— SKOR North - Minnesota Sports (@SKORNorth) September 25, 2026

"What are we doing here? Can he play or not!?"

-@PhilMackey on the Vikings not utilizing Demond Claiborne pic.twitter.com/2Oq0q3i742

— SKOR North - Minnesota Sports (@SKORNorth) September 25, 2026

Jauan Jennings could have an interesting matchup in Tampa Bay this Sunday 👀 pic.twitter.com/1GRXkIhcKm

— SKOR North - Minnesota Sports (@SKORNorth) September 24, 2026

I agree -- time for Jennings and Claiborne to get their #'s called.

Addison too

purplefaithful wrote:

I agree -- time for Jennings and Claiborne to get their #'s called.
Addison too

Claiborne had a touch last week. But I get why he isn't getting used. Last week, securing the ball was tough, but it was at a premium in a defensive battle. No way you risk a rookie with ball security issues getting a bunch of carries. This week, with Murray back and hopefully the offense opening up a bit, I could see him getting some. The "either he can play or he can't" is such a stupid take. Rookies and NFL schemes, responsibilities, and such is such a huge step, especially coming from some programs.

A hungry bunch heads to Tampa this weekend. pic.twitter.com/LKoYmj0GpF

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 25, 2026

RB Aaron Jones (knee) is again practicing today, a good sign for his availability Sunday in Tampa. P Brett Thorson (hamstring) was not, meaning it’s likely that Johnny Hekker will do the punting this weekend.

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) September 25, 2026

Cool, calm, and collected: Kudos to #Vikings CB Byron Murphy Jr. for keeping his composure during our chat this week as a few teammates in the background tried to get him to laugh uncontrollably: pic.twitter.com/Xb7zBHGvdy

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) September 25, 2026

Week 3 against Tampa Bay will be Dallas Turner’s TOUGHEST test yet 👀 pic.twitter.com/8ehJttY2YH

— SKOR North - Minnesota Sports (@SKORNorth) September 25, 2026

Aaron Jones: I finished the game in Chicago so in my mind I was always good to go for this week. pic.twitter.com/rRTXg5X0K7

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) September 25, 2026

Aaron Jones is good to go for Sunday's game, per KOC. "Feel good about him being ready to roll."

Johnny Hekker will be the Vikings' punter.

— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) September 25, 2026

LIVE: Head Coach Kevin O'Connell https://t.co/5zVw9oxJek

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 25, 2026