OT: Texas Flood

I find myself with the same type of questions that I had following the Hawaii fires,  our system failed the people its supposed to protect and serve.  

As scary as the term sounds,  flash floods are rarely unexpected or a unpredictable.   Somebody should have been warning people in the lower lying areas that they needed to get to higher ground as soon as that storm developed.

We have to much technology available and to many ways to communicate for this to be considered simply an act of nature and beyond our control.

My heart goes out to the people of Texas and the families that have lost so much.

We need to do better.

Geez. Dry creek bed to a house floating down it in half an hour.

59 confirmed victims that lost their lives this includes 21 of them as children. My prayers go out to the people and their families in Texas.

JimmyinSD wrote:
I find myself with the same type of questions that I had following the Hawaii fires,  our system failed the people its supposed to protect and serve.   As scary as the term sounds,  flash floods are rarely unexpected or a unpredictable.   Somebody should have been warning people in the lower lying areas that they needed to get to higher ground as soon as that storm developed. We have to much technology available and to many ways to communicate for this to be considered simply an act of nature and beyond our control. My heart goes out to the people of Texas and the families that have lost so much. We need to do better.

I thought the same Jimmy, Hawaii. 

In this case a systematic and/or tech failure. This is way beyond some counselors at Camp Mystiq potentially making the wrong call. 

Lots of luv and prayers to families down there.

One glaring takeaway of the tragic, horrific flash flooding deaths in Texas: buy a NOAA Weather Radio. It’s the cheapest form of life insurance around. With Specific Area Message Encoding (SAME) technology, you can enter just your county. A screeching alert at 2 a.m. will wake up the entire house (trust me). Don’t count on your phone to get the warnings you need to stay safe.

The Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, rose at least 34 feet in only five hours during the early-morning hours of July 4. The local NWS office DID issue a “Flash Flood Emergency.” There WERE warnings in effect.

It was a deadly cocktail of factors: a warmer, wetter atmosphere and remnants of Tropical Storm Barry. Kerr County, Texas, doesn’t have a local flood warning system. Nighttime weather disasters always claim a disproportionate number of lives. People are sleeping, not paying attention.

Startribune

Just listened to some interviews and the warnings started on Wednesday and kicked up on Thursday, according to the report.  That seems to be a common occurrence in the area, warnings and then things just dissipate, have a similar thing here we call the Ames doughnut. Tragic how this played out.  Some talk about about all the tech. available for predicting these things, who is going to pay for it and why would I want to pay for folks in Texas or Missouri?

BigAl99 wrote:
Just listened to some interviews and the warnings started on Wednesday and kicked up on Thursday, according to the report.  That seems to be a common occurrence in the area, warnings and then things just dissipate, have a similar thing here we call the Ames doughnut. Tragic how this played out.  Some talk about about all the tech. available for predicting these things, who is going to pay for it and why would I want to pay for folks in Texas or Missouri?

Can we please not make this political?

It's already out there,  in every news weather room,  and in most areas emergency management.   It doesn't take new space age shit to be able to predict big rain events and how certain areas will be affected.

I dont know about that specific area,  but if they had been catching rain,  it should have been anticipated as its hill country with already saturated soil,  but even if they were dry,  Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas are home to some of the best weather research programs in the country,  those folks know storms and history shows how regions handle those rainfall events.

Our area has a program called code red, its a way for county emergencies and warnings to go out via text and phone call to everyone that signs up.  If the national weather services issues anything more severe than a dense fog warning our phones blow up.  I have to think about every area has something similar.

JimmyinSD wrote:

Can we please not make this political?

It's already out there,  in every news weather room,  and in most areas emergency management.   It doesn't take new space age shit to be able to predict big rain events and how certain areas will be affected.

I dont know about that specific area,  but if they had been catching rain,  it should have been anticipated as its hill country with already saturated soil,  but even if they were dry,  Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas are home to some of the best weather research programs in the country,  those folks now storms and history shows how regions handle those rainfall events.

Our area has a program called code red, its a way for county emergencies and warnings to go out via text and phone call to everyone that signs up.  If the national weather services issues anything more severe than a dense fog warning our phones blow up.  I have to think about every area has something similar.

At the bold… very interesting concept!

NOAA and NWS have had major cuts and layoffs this year. Word is that the predictions were complete but that messages/ warnings were delayed.

Bullazin wrote:
NOAA and NWS have had major cuts and layoffs this year.  Word is that the predictions were complete but that messages/ warnings were delayed.

Don’t make this political.  :D

mblack wrote:

Don’t make this political.  :D

I didn't take this as political.  I took it as factual.

Bullazin wrote:
NOAA and NWS have had major cuts and layoffs this year.  Word is that the predictions were complete but that messages/ warnings were delayed.

just came on to eat my words on the matter,  I was reading a CBS report on the watches and warnings that were issues by the NWS prior to the events.  There was plenty of warning for those that were listening,  at least from NOAA and the NWS ( which is what I had been critical of)  

timeline is available here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-floods-emergency-alerts-weather-forecast-staffing-budget/

if anything this comes back to apathy and a poor local response ( I wonder how much the timing with the 4th holiday had to do with it? )

Bullazin wrote:
NOAA and NWS have had major cuts and layoffs this year.  Word is that the predictions were complete but that messages/ warnings were delayed.

Ok then…

The National Weather Service, one of NOAA's six major offices, is perhaps the most recognizable component of the agency for its weather forecasts and urgent warnings about hurricanes, floods, heat waves, tornadoes and tsunamis.
Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/fired-rehired-and-fired-again-noaa-employees-are-caught-in-a-liminal-state

JimmyinSD wrote:

just came on to eat my words on the matter,  I was reading a CBS report on the watches and warnings that were issues by the NWS prior to the events.  There was plenty of warning for those that were listening,  at least from NOAA and the NWS ( which is what I had been critical of)  

timeline is available here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-floods-emergency-alerts-weather-forecast-staffing-budget/

if anything this comes back to apathy and a poor local response ( I wonder how much the timing with the 4th holiday had to do with it? )

of course the NWS "legislative director" is going to blame budget cuts, but that simply doesnt sound like the case as the system did its job,  the locals and the local Emergency Management systems either ignored, or otherwise dropped the ball.

So was the office staffed or understaffed?

Concerns about staffing and budget cuts at the National Weather Service have been in the news since the Trump administration took office in January.

The San Antonio and San Angelo weather forecasts offices, which issued warnings for the affected areas, are currently operating with 23 meteorologists on staff, according to union officials for the National Weather Service. The two offices have a combined total of 10 vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio, leaving them slightly short of being fully staffed. The warning coordination meteorologist plays a crucial role in coordinating with local officials about severe weather emergencies.

mblack wrote:
So was the office staffed or understaffed?

We can only imagine what would/could have appended if the 10 positions were filled and had a warning coordinator especially given they saw this coming.

The San Antonio and San Angelo weather forecasts offices, which issued warnings for the affected areas, are currently operating with 23 meteorologists on staff, according to union officials for the National Weather Service. The two offices have a combined total of 10 vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio, leaving them slightly short of being fully staffed. The warning coordination meteorologist plays a crucial role in coordinating with local officials about severe weather emergencies.

This is similar to what I read.  I hope it’s not true. Regardless it’s devastating.

Montana Tom wrote:

I didn't take this as political.  I took it as factual.

I think blackie was playing with me :)

JimmyinSD wrote:

just came on to eat my words on the matter,  I was reading a CBS report on the watches and warnings that were issues by the NWS prior to the events.  There was plenty of warning for those that were listening,  at least from NOAA and the NWS ( which is what I had been critical of)  
timeline is available here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-floods-emergency-alerts-weather-forecast-staffing-budget/
if anything this comes back to apathy and a poor local response ( I wonder how much the timing with the 4th holiday had to do with it? )

The ball could very well have been dropped locally...They'll have time to sort it out and (hopefully) be transparent with themselves and the country where this tragedy stemmed-from. 

Now is not the time for that though imo. 

This was a freak event that could have happened anywhere:

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.

Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

purplefaithful wrote:

The ball could very well have been dropped locally...They'll have time to sort it out and (hopefully) be transparent with themselves and the country where this tragedy stemmed-from. 

Now is not the time for that though imo. 

This was a freak event that could have happened anywhere:

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.

Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

At the bold...
The only problem here is that the Chief of Texas Emergency Management W. Nim Kidd already blamed NOAA and NWS San Antonio.
You know, the same guy who was "secretly" in the running for the FEMA job

mblack wrote:

At the bold...
The only problem here is that the Chief of Texas Emergency Management W. Nim Kidd already blamed NOAA and NWS San Antonio.
You know, the same guy who was "secretly" in the running for the FEMA job

I never said it wasn't time for CYA though ;)

purplefaithful wrote:

The ball could very well have been dropped locally...They'll have time to sort it out and (hopefully) be transparent with themselves and the country where this tragedy stemmed-from. 

Now is not the time for that though imo. 

This was a freak event that could have happened anywhere:

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.

Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

its a tragedy for sure,  but this should serve as a reminder to all of us the risks we take when we dont heed those seemingly daily warnings from the NWS.  We are all likely guilty of doing exactly what the lady in the CBS report said... they may have got the warnings, but simply ignored them as it wasnt imminent for them at the time.

I remember I did a weather spotters course through the NWS for our county and the director from the NWS that conducted the course said they always have to balance that when to warn,  vs when not to,  as they know that they will become the little boy that cried wolf,  I am afraid that even though there will be plenty of fingers pointed and blame laid in this,  that its largely became an issue of people not paying attention to the warnings they were given.  I also remember about 40 years ago we went to a boy scout camp in a hilly area,  we were told that in the even of bad weather we would likely have to abandon our chosen camping location as it was prone to flooding when the area got saturated,  sure enough after a couple days of intermittent showers,  one evening the sky blew up and we had to move camp, good thing we did as a few hours later there was about 2 feet of water rolling through where we had been located.  I dont care what the feds put on a % of flooding, some of that is negotiated by cities and developers,  if you own property by a river,  you have likely seen it flood and should be more aware of whats happening upstream and with the weather.  and the local EM should have been all over this incident.

I know the NWS is a convenient target,  but when watches and warnings were issued well ahead of time,  IMO this is a local matter and that is where the focus needs to be.  Not necessarily making scape goats out of those folks in texas,  but for all of us to be more aware of what is happening around us and to make sure our local EMS teams are well staffed, trained, and funded.

purplefaithful wrote:

I never said it wasn't time for CYA though ;)

It will always be CYA time and it is political. The response to different disasters has shown that unfortunately. It shouldn't be that way though. Cuts to NOAA, NWS and FEMA are having an impact. I don't care where the disaster is in this country, funding should be available period. Prevention, warning systems and alerts and support afterwards should not be political