Keeping JJM will be a business decision
After listening to all the pundits say why we will re-sign Darnold on a Franchise tag, sign him to a 4-year deal, blah blah ad nauseum, and why we will trade JJM and nobody knows what to do with Daniel Jones...I think I can reasonably forecast what will actually happen in the end.
It's going to be a business decision (just like letting Cousins walk, which worked out pretty well for us). After trying to make it complicated, I realized it's not that complicated.
You're going to tie up around $41 million to secure Darnold for one year on a franchise tag, or between $35-$40 million/year on a 3-4 year deal.
You have maybe $50-70 million (depending on who is calculating what) in salary cap room.
Do you tie up $40mm on one person? Or do you use that as capital to re-sign the FA's we badly want to keep, and go on the hunt for more help on both interior lines?
JJM's cap hit is team friendly this year and for a couple more years.
If they are serious about building a Championship calibre TEAM, it makes more sense to spread that salary cap around, not hamstring us into oblivion in future years by deferring cap hits (thanks Spielman). You've theoretically got say $35mm to spend on improving the roster, and that includes keeping JJM and signing Daniel Jones to a one year backup extension for say $5mm/year (while he attends QB Whisperer School with KOC).
One variation on that them would be the tag & trade option for Darnold. Franchise tag him and trade him to some QB desperate team. There are very few proven options out there and I'm certain that some teams would think they died and went to heaven if they could get Darnold for a bargain $41mm with the option of a long-term deal.
I'm impressed with some of the moves Kwesi has done to build this roster and get us out of cap hell that he inherited. It doesn't happen all at once. I think he learned from blowing the draft his first year, and he's a smart, shrewd guy. We are sitting with an embarrassment of riches in our QB room, and that give us leverage. Not one person thought we'd be in this situation 365 days ago.
I'll repost this here...Doogie is pretty tied in.
"I don't think the Vikings know the answer so I certainly don't know the answer, trust me by March 5th there will be full clarity" 👀
— SKOR North - Minnesota Sports (@SKORNorth) January 14, 2025
- @DWolfsonKSTP on what the #Vikings plan to do with Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/Th3UOdKf9W
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Why pay Darnold to be a 30 million backup QB when he's proven he plays his worst when it matters most? To me the ideal situation is you hand the keys over to McCarthy and make him the unquestioned starter heading into the season. You sign Daniel Jones to be the backup on a short term deal, and someone pays Darnold a lot of money in free agency which results in a comp pick for us.
I think the Vikings fully intend to roll with McCarthy and its the right move to make.
supafreak84 wrote:
Why pay Darnold to be a 30 million backup QB when he's proven he plays his worst when it matters most? To me the ideal situation is you hand the keys over to McCarthy and make him the unquestioned starter heading into the season. You sign Daniel Jones to be the backup on a short term deal, and someone pays Darnold a lot of money in free agency which results in a comp pick for us.I think the Vikings fully intend to roll with McCarthy and its the right move to make.
I think of it as:
If Darnold is not our starter, can we get something in return for him? (Tag/Trade)
Qb1 in 25: I would like to see Dimes/JJM compete for it. I dont think JJM has earned the spot yet.
Got hurt too early for that imo.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
I'm pretty sure they know after post season evaluations which way the team is going to go. However, they have to play it out and see if someone offers a deal they can't refuse; in which case they reevaluate.
Their original plan was to build a team around their first contract QB. The only options I see are signing Darnold to a contract friendly short term contract and competing with JJM for the starting position, or signing Dimes to a short term contract to compete with JJM. Darnold staying seems a very low probability.
Another thing Doogie mentioned on Skor North, if they tag and trade Darnold they would get picks in the 2025 draft. If they let him walk they wouldn't get the comp pick until the 2026 draft.
The Vikings might be trying to get something for Sam Darnold, and that might be why we're hearing all of this indecision. If the Vikings truly are undecided, then it probably has to do with determining the best way to maximize the return.
If tag and trade is off the table, and for whatever reason, many think it is now, I'll go back to what I was thinking a few weeks ago before Sam self destructed. If you can sign him long term--at least two years--you can rehabilitate his image a little in 2025. You can probably expect a similar performance to what he did in 2024. If you don't get that, you just replace him with JJM, Sam is the backup and you trade him in the offseason for a day-two pick. But if you do, then we're no longer talking about day-two picks or comp picks. We're talking about a couple 1st rounders.
One thing I feel completely confident in is that the Vikings will not trade McCarthy.
Another possibility, though more unlikely, is to sign free agent Jimmy Garoppolo as a bridge/backup if Sam and Jones walk. He's another Shanahan trained QB, which KOC seems to like, and his current contract with the Rams this year was a little over $3M.
NorseFeathers wrote:
Another possibility, though more unlikely, is to sign free agent Jimmy Garoppolo as a bridge/backup if Sam and Jones walk. He's another Shanahan trained QB, which KOC seems to like, and his current contract with the Rams this year was a little over $3M.
Stafford hasn't committed to returning next season - yet. Might be a spot for Sam.
I think Stafford has like 16 years in the league? I hope he can survive off that pension earned.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Greylock wrote:
Another thing Doogie mentioned on Skor North, if they tag and trade Darnold they would get picks in the 2025 draft. If they let him walk they wouldn't get the comp pick until the 2026 draft.
That sounds great, but I think his poor performances in the two biggest games of the season not only hurt his own earning potential in free agency but probably hampers the Vikings in terms of a sign and trade. I'm guessing teams will have a wide range of opinions on Darnold and just what his value is and that hurts the Vikings in trading him.
Well maybe I'm wrong. Jeremy Fowler at ESPN reporting several teams will be interested in Darnold and projects him to get a 3 year deal in the 100 million dollar range.
supafreak84 wrote:
That sounds great, but I think his poor performances in the two biggest games of the season not only hurt his own earning potential in free agency but probably hampers the Vikings in terms of a sign and trade. I'm guessing teams will have a wide range of opinions on Darnold and just what his value is and that hurts the Vikings in trading him.
Well maybe I'm wrong. Jeremy Fowler at ESPN reporting several teams will be interested in Darnold and projects him to get a 3 year deal in the 100 million dollar range.
I think you are underestimating the mkt for QB starved teams...Sam crapped the bed the last 2 BIG GAMES and consequently I dont want him here for the long-term.
Not when we have a top 10 QB with the ceiling of a McCarthy on the roster/rook contract.
If we didnt have JJ, I'd be hoping Sam signs here and could continue to grow and get better situationally.
KOC too for that matter.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
If JJM isn't ready, then I'm down to roll with Danny Dimes. We were due for a down year and we didn't get one this time around. Take the next year and work on rebuilding the line. Sorry Danny, but this is your redemption tour and it might come with a little wear and tear. The focus of this year to me should be interior O-line and interior D-line.
For Sam? If we can tag him and get anything for him it is better than nothing. Sam will do "well" for some team, it just doesn't need to be us. I know that might seem like a dick move to tag him, but he wouldn't even be in this position if it wasn't for the Vikes.
One thing I'll say is the Vikings weren't afraid to walk from Cousins when his deal was coming up. I don't think they'll be afraid to walk from Darnold either... especially when you have a HC who has proven he can get the most out of his QBs, and elite production from QBs with good talent (Cousins and Darnold).
KOC believes JJ McCarthy is a franchise QB and he has the physical skills and intangibles you want. He may not reach the statistical heights of Cousins or Darnold next year as a first time starter, but that doesn't mean we can't win games or have success.
I'm guessing the Vikings are going to stay tight lipped on this for a bit. They have a couple different options to fill out their QB room and I'm sure they are weighing what Darnold and Daniel Jones are feeling right now. I'll say with certainty that JJ will be here competing for the starting job.
purplefaithful wrote:
I think you are underestimating the mkt for QB starved teams...Sam crapped the bed the last 2 BIG GAMES and consequently I dont want him here for the long-term.
Not when we have a top 10 QB with the ceiling of a McCarthy on the roster/rook contract.
If we didnt have JJ, I'd be hoping Sam signs here and could continue to grow and get better situationally.
KOC too for that matter.
This is an every year occurrence. People underestimate the need, underestimate the contracts and underestimate what teams are willing to give up for them. There are plenty of teams out there with nothing at QB and very little hope of finding something. I don't care what Sam did in his final two games—many will put some of the blame on the OL for that—14 wins, 4300 yards, 35 TDs and a 102 rating, and how he looked doing it all, is going to speak volumes when you're looking at the likes of Desmond Ridder and Bailey Zappe.
MaroonBells wrote:
This is an every year occurrence. People underestimate the need, underestimate the contracts and underestimate what teams are willing to give up for them. There are plenty of teams out there with nothing at QB and very little hope of finding something. I don't care what Sam did in his final two games—many will put some of the blame on the OL for that—14 wins, 4300 yards, 35 TDs and a 102 rating, and how he looked doing it all, is going to speak volumes when you're looking at the likes of Desmond Ridder and Bailey Zappe.
We'll see. I think the problem with Darnold is you have years of bad tape, bad performances, and just this year where he bounced back under KOC and the weapons in this offense only to play absolutely abysmal when the most was on the line. If I'm say the GM in Tennessee, I'm opting to continue to look at and develop Will Levis before giving Sam Darnold a 100 million dollar contract. Most of these teams with QB problems are not good teams and have problems outside of quarterback. Good chance Darnold doesn't succeed in that type of environment and you have to be a realist as a GM with where you are at as a roster before bringing Darnold in as your starter. I don't think you'll ever see Darnold have the same type of success as he had this year, with this roster and team.
JJ isn't going to get traded. When they said it will be a business decision is when I knew Sam was gone. I am hoping they can franchise and trade him. I will guess they won't tag him unless they already have a deal in place with a team for a trade. Just my opinion.
There is also the possibility the Vikings do sign Darnold and wait until a QB gets injured in preseason, or before the trade deadline, then trades him if JJM is the guy!
Why would they sign Darnold and tie up cap they desperately need just because they plan on trading him if and when someone comes calling? Think about how much that screws us regarding signing players, chemistry and learning the system.
Like I have said before, signing Darnold to any type of deal is short sighted if JJ is the future. We should let him walk. Worrying about what we could get for Darnold or that we will lose him for nothing is simply the wrong approach. Getting “something” for Darnold should not be our focus. JJ and Daniel Jones should compete in training camp for the starting job. If we like Daniel Jones then we offer him a similar one year deal.
This team needs a lot of help plus players that need to be resigned.
We finally have the cap space to help address this.
supafreak84 wrote:
We'll see. I think the problem with Darnold is you have years of bad tape, bad performances, and just this year where he bounced back under KOC and the weapons in this offense only to play absolutely abysmal when the most was on the line. If I'm say the GM in Tennessee, I'm opting to continue to look at and develop Will Levis before giving Sam Darnold a 100 million dollar contract. Most of these teams with QB problems are not good teams and have problems outside of quarterback. Good chance Darnold doesn't succeed in that type of environment and you have to be a realist as a GM with where you are at as a roster before bringing Darnold in as your starter. I don't think you'll ever see Darnold have the same type of success as he had this year, with this roster and team.
I agree, it's unlikely Sam is going to replicate what he did in Minnesota for another team. But he doesn't have to. That will not be the expectation. The hope for a team who signs him will be that he's on a new course and he continues developing. Plus, I don't think teams believe it was all system and weapons in Minnesota. Darnold learned a lot about playing QB from O'Connell and his staff. Still, Sam's new team would be wise to try to achieve some continuity for him by bringing over some of those pieces.
Also, I think the concerns you mention are already baked into Sam's value. Most people are talking a Baker-like deal (3 years, $100M). That is not a salary befitting a 27yo QB with 14 wins 4300 yards and 35 TDs. $100M for a QB is a pittance. It would rank 19th among NFL QBs.
Sure, Titans might choose to keep developing Levis, although I tend to think they've seen enough. But have you looked at the QB depth charts for the Raiders, Giants, Steelers, Jets, Browns? And the QBs available in free agency and draft? Yuck.
Darnold's agent with the help of muppets like Orlovski will hard sell the idea that those two games weren't his fault, he learned from the mistakes, he's eager to build on 14 wins, he's so much better because of what KOC taught him, etc.
Multiple teams that have shit for a QB will sniff around and the market will set a price. One that the Vikings will not pay. Multiple high dollar years aren't doable unless they abandon the JJM plan. There is zero chance of that imo. Sam is positioned to get the biggest payday he'll ever see. It's not going to be in purple.
The best option is to go to Sam's agent and try to create a win-win. Offer to tag him to help set a price floor, in exchange for the agent facilitating a trade for reasonable value. Probably a second rounder.
That's how I see it. I see no scenario, barring injury, where JJM is not our QB next year, probably with Jones as the backup.
StickierBuns wrote:
Agreed. Would love to see Minnesota get comped in some way with Darnold, but I'm not sure that is going to happen. My A+ QB offseason is JJ at QB1 and Danny Dimes at QB2.
I would be happy with JJ and Mullins.
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