Keeping JJM will be a business decision
After listening to all the pundits say why we will re-sign Darnold on a Franchise tag, sign him to a 4-year deal, blah blah ad nauseum, and why we will trade JJM and nobody knows what to do with Daniel Jones...I think I can reasonably forecast what will actually happen in the end.
It's going to be a business decision (just like letting Cousins walk, which worked out pretty well for us). After trying to make it complicated, I realized it's not that complicated.
You're going to tie up around $41 million to secure Darnold for one year on a franchise tag, or between $35-$40 million/year on a 3-4 year deal.
You have maybe $50-70 million (depending on who is calculating what) in salary cap room.
Do you tie up $40mm on one person? Or do you use that as capital to re-sign the FA's we badly want to keep, and go on the hunt for more help on both interior lines?
JJM's cap hit is team friendly this year and for a couple more years.
If they are serious about building a Championship calibre TEAM, it makes more sense to spread that salary cap around, not hamstring us into oblivion in future years by deferring cap hits (thanks Spielman). You've theoretically got say $35mm to spend on improving the roster, and that includes keeping JJM and signing Daniel Jones to a one year backup extension for say $5mm/year (while he attends QB Whisperer School with KOC).
One variation on that them would be the tag & trade option for Darnold. Franchise tag him and trade him to some QB desperate team. There are very few proven options out there and I'm certain that some teams would think they died and went to heaven if they could get Darnold for a bargain $41mm with the option of a long-term deal.
I'm impressed with some of the moves Kwesi has done to build this roster and get us out of cap hell that he inherited. It doesn't happen all at once. I think he learned from blowing the draft his first year, and he's a smart, shrewd guy. We are sitting with an embarrassment of riches in our QB room, and that give us leverage. Not one person thought we'd be in this situation 365 days ago.
MaroonBells wrote:
I agree, it's unlikely Sam is going to replicate what he did in Minnesota for another team. But he doesn't have to. That will not be the expectation. The hope for a team who signs him will be that he's on a new course and he continues developing. Plus, I don't think teams believe it was all system and weapons in Minnesota. Darnold learned a lot about playing QB from O'Connell and his staff. Still, Sam's new team would be wise to try to achieve some continuity for him by bringing over some of those pieces.
Also, I think the concerns you mention are already baked into Sam's value. Most people are talking a Baker-like deal (3 years, $100M). That is not a salary befitting at 27yo QB with 14 wins 4300 yards and 35 TDs. $100M for a QB is a pittance. It would rank 19th among NFL QBs.
Sure, Titans might choose to keep developing Levis, although I tend to think they've seen enough. But have you looked at the QB depth charts for the Raiders, Giants, Steelers, Jets, Browns? And the QBs available in free agency and draft? Yuck.
The huge temptation for a few teams with Darnold will be: no draft compensation probably in a trade or very little, a weak QB class in the Draft and Darnold is only 27 years old. I think the Raiders and Steelers are going to be very interested and vice versa.
comet52 wrote:
That's how I see it. I see no scenario, barring injury, where JJM is not our QB next year, probably with Jones as the backup.
Agreed. Would love to see Minnesota get comped in some way with Darnold, but I'm not sure that is going to happen. My A+ QB offseason is JJ at QB1 and Danny Dimes at QB2.
StickierBuns wrote:
Agreed. Would love to see Minnesota get comped in some way with Darnold, but I'm not sure that is going to happen. My A+ QB offseason is JJ at QB1 and Danny Dimes at QB2.
I would be happy with JJ and Mullins.
hogjowlsjohnny wrote:
I would be happy with JJ and Mullins.
Whats the point of Mullins if they wont play him to try and salvage a playoff run? Whem KOC didnt use mullins against the rams when it was more than apparent that SD was incapable of getting it done, then why have him on the roster at all?
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
JimmyinSD wrote:
Whats the point of Mullins if they wont play him to try and salvage a playoff run? Whem KOC didnt use mullins against the rams when it was more than apparent that SD was incapable of getting it done, then why have him on the roster at all?
That's like asking what was the point of Sean Mannion. Somebody has to hold the clipboard I guess.
hogjowlsjohnny wrote:
I would be happy with JJ and Mullins.
Mullens is a free agent and I think he's done in Minnesota. Vikings brought on Daniel Jones likely because they wanted a better, more experienced #2 behind their young QB if Darnold moved on.
But will Daniel Jones stay with the Vikings on a, say, $10M deal if one of those QB desperate teams offers him a starting job and the salary that goes with it? Hard to see. If he does, you should just write a $10M check to Kevin O'Connell because he's the only reason Jones would do that.
MaroonBells wrote:
Mullens is a free agent and I think he's done in Minnesota. Vikings brought on Daniel Jones likely because they wanted a better, more experienced #2 behind their young QB if Darnold moved on.
But will Daniel Jones stay with the Vikings on a, say, $10M deal if one of those QB desperate teams offers him a starting job and the salary that goes with it? Hard to see. If he does, you should just write a $10M check to Kevin O'Connell because he's the only reason Jones would do that.
On the other hand, is Jones worth $7M more than a guy like Garapolo who someone brought up earlier? Looking quickly, I see Cashman, Metellus, and Harry all had cap numbers around $7M last season. He might be, but it's not like Jones is our only option. The Vikings signed Sam after the FA pool was basically empty.
StickierBuns wrote:
IMO, I think its hard for some fans, media, etc. to grasp the concept that Minnesota might most likely let Darnold go.
I actually believe the opposite is happening. Sam messed the bed with everyone watching so fans are overreacting. Darnold will absolutely have a market-- he had a great year-- and I hope the Vikings can capitalize on that.
Supply & Demand. Every year there are QB-starved teams out there desperate to upgrade the position. This year is no different. The question is who's available. If you look at FA, Darnold really is the cream of the crop, last 2 games notwithstanding. Draft? If you really think Cam Ward or Deion's kid is it then go for it champ, otherwise Sam is your best bet.
Since we're only looking at having 4 picks in this year's draft, I would really hope that we could recoup some draft choices via a tag & trade. Considering the market, we may get that chance.
The artist formerly known as PurpleCrush.
The more time goes on, the less chance I think Dimes stays...Too much $ to be had vs staying here for $10 or $15mm on a 1 year contract.
UNLESS, they promise him the chance to compete for QB1, then all bets are off.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
purplefaithful wrote:
The more time goes on, the less chance I think Dimes stays...Too much $ to be had vs staying here for $10 or $15mm on a 1 year contract.UNLESS, they promise him the chance to compete for QB1, then all bets are off.
Jones had a chance to go to two teams that promised him to start last year. He turned down offers to come here. KOC was involved quite a bit in the pre draft process with Jones. They have a really good relationship. He chose to come here because it is what's best for his future, he obviously knows that. He is still getting paid from the Giants, it makes sense for him to stay here and work with KOC, whom they have a great relationship. I don't think next year will be about the money for Jones. It will be about the best fit.
Jones has said to KOC, rumor has it, that he wants to come back but it won't be as the #3. He is wanting a chance to compete for the #1 spot. Here he can do that. With KOC right by his side. I think it's a win win for Jones.
Canthony wrote:
Jones had a chance to go to two teams that promised him to start last year. He turned down offers to come here. KOC was involved quite a bit in the pre draft process with Jones. They have a really good relationship. He chose to come here because it is what's best for his future, he obviously knows that. He is still getting paid from the Giants, it makes sense for him to stay here and work with KOC, whom they have a great relationship. I don't think next year will be about the money for Jones. It will be about the best fit.
Jones has said to KOC, rumor has it, that he wants to come back but it won't be as the #3. He is wanting a chance to compete for the #1 spot. Here he can do that. With KOC right by his side. I think it's a win win for Jones.
Thats a good pt re: him still getting paid by the Giants, forgot about that!
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
purplefaithful wrote:
Thats a good pt re: him still getting paid by the Giants, forgot about that!
I am sure a lot have forgotten that. 2025 won't be about money, there is no need for it. The situation for him that makes most sense, is with KOC in MN.
MaroonBells wrote:
Sure, Titans might choose to keep developing Levis, although I tend to think they've seen enough. But have you looked at the QB depth charts for the Raiders, Giants, Steelers, Jets, Browns? And the QBs available in free agency and draft? Yuck.
Just reading the early draft tea leaves, I bet we see 3 QB's go in the top 10 picks. Ward, Sanders, and Jaxson Dart. That probably eliminates three of those teams you mentioned. There's no way I could see Darnold going back to the Jets. If I'm Pittsburgh, I'd probably opt to re-sign Russell Wilson, who already knows the system, and try to add a few playmakers to an offense that sorely needs them. The Darnold market and where he ultimately ends up is going to be very interesting.
supafreak84 wrote:
Just reading the early draft tea leaves, I bet we see 3 QB's go in the top 10 picks. Ward, Sanders, and Jaxson Dart. That probably eliminates three of those teams you mentioned. There's no way I could see Darnold going back to the Jets. If I'm Pittsburgh, I'd probably opt to re-sign Russell Wilson, who already knows the system, and try to add a few playmakers to an offense that sorely needs them. The Darnold market and where he ultimately ends up is going to be very interesting.
I have a feeling Brady likes him a lot...
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
I really can't wait until JJ plays. Really looking forward to him and KOC doing their thing. I get the vibe that he wants to do whatever it takes to keep getting better. He has the work ethic and attitude of wanting to be the best.
StickierBuns wrote:
Jaxson Dart? I think he's got a long way to go. I know that Mel likes him as a surprise QB3, but he fumbles and has a lot of INT worthy throws. He does have some nice intangibles and was highly rated coming out of high school. Average arm and size. I'd be beyond shocked to see Dart go in the top 10, lol....hell no way in round 1. I also think Cam Ward is a huge mistake at #1 overall if that happens. Draft Travis Hunter and play him on both sides of the ball.
The more I look at these upcoming QBs in the Draft, the more I dislike them all, lol. Lots of red flags. Even the guy that I like the best of the crop, Sanders.
The word as of now, is that Dart is entrenched as the 3rd QB in this draft. Teams like his arm talent and that he's played in a more pro style offense under Kiffin. We've seen countless times teams overdrafting QB's because of need and we've discussed the available free agent options, so that's why I say that I could see him drafted in the top 10.
Canthony wrote:
Jones had a chance to go to two teams that promised him to start last year. He turned down offers to come here. KOC was involved quite a bit in the pre draft process with Jones. They have a really good relationship. He chose to come here because it is what's best for his future, he obviously knows that. He is still getting paid from the Giants, it makes sense for him to stay here and work with KOC, whom they have a great relationship. I don't think next year will be about the money for Jones. It will be about the best fit.
Jones has said to KOC, rumor has it, that he wants to come back but it won't be as the #3. He is wanting a chance to compete for the #1 spot. Here he can do that. With KOC right by his side. I think it's a win win for Jones.
I don’t think him not going to those teams really affects too much. No one was installing him as a starter this year ¾ of the way through the season and no one was offering him big bucks for the last few games.
I don’t think that really gives much of a read on what his future plans are if he has to choose between playing for a team that offers him moderate but still significant money to be a bridge starter on a bad team and probably riding the pine for us, but hopefully getting a better payday in the future. I also don’t think it’s a given that he’ll be offered a starting job. Like if someone offers you $50M more, how do you not take it? Almost everyone is taking the money at that point.
S. Salisbury was on with Barriero today....Probably more confirming vs anything news breaking.
Loves JJM but doesnt believe they can hand the rook the keys to start the season, not w/out competition to win it.
Thinks the Vikings may try to ink Darnold to a 2 year at 15-18/year.
- Would not break the bank this year or future seasons.
- Buys JJM some additional time to learn
Last two games have definitely cost Darnold $, but he wouldn't be shocked if someone offers him a 3 year + deal at bigger $ than the Vikings would pay.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
supafreak84 wrote:
Just reading the early draft tea leaves, I bet we see 3 QB's go in the top 10 picks. Ward, Sanders, and Jaxson Dart. That probably eliminates three of those teams you mentioned. There's no way I could see Darnold going back to the Jets. If I'm Pittsburgh, I'd probably opt to re-sign Russell Wilson, who already knows the system, and try to add a few playmakers to an offense that sorely needs them. The Darnold market and where he ultimately ends up is going to be very interesting.
Jaxson Dart? I think he's got a long way to go. I know that Mel likes him as a surprise QB3, but he fumbles and has a lot of INT worthy throws. He does have some nice intangibles and was highly rated coming out of high school. Average arm and size. I'd be beyond shocked to see Dart go in the top 10, lol....hell no way in round 1. I also think Cam Ward is a huge mistake at #1 overall if that happens. Draft Travis Hunter and play him on both sides of the ball.
The more I look at these upcoming QBs in the Draft, the more I dislike them all, lol. Lots of red flags. Even the guy that I like the best of the crop, Sanders.
purplefaithful wrote:
S. Salisbury was on with Barriero today....Probably more confirming vs anything news breaking.Loves JJM but doesnt believe they can hand the rook the keys to start the season, not w/out competition to win it.
Thinks the Vikings may try to ink Darnold to a 2 year at 15-18/year.
- Would not break the bank this year or future seasons.
- Buys JJM some additional time to learnLast two games have definitely cost Darnold $, but he wouldn't be shocked if someone offers him a 3 year + deal at bigger $ than the Vikings would pay.
I totally expect to get outbid for Jones ( will not call him by that stupid ass nickname, those need to be earned and he never looked worthy) and Darnold, however either of them on a 2 or 3 year deal at 15 to 18 per would be ok with me, as long as we have the ability to trade them and they only have limited trade block ability (IE: give them a couple options and let them pick between them if options are available) I do think JJM needs real competition, I think it will drive him even harder to be a better QB for us. I think every position should have competition, somebody get parker romo a contract please. and find me a punter...anybody, we need competition there as well.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
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