The Elephant in the Room

U can never say never, but I agree - a yr1 qb just doesn't have the experience of someone who's been doing it 7 years. You cant teach experience and its not fair to expect a JJM to play at Darnold's level yr 1.

JJM may have to be more game manager for a while. The hard part for me as a fan is that I see Good Sam moving beyond manager to excelling at the off script etc. Plus its obvious the WR's and team mates love him.

Yes, the $$$ side is where it'll get settled. Someone is going to offer him bigger $$ than (I think) we would. Addison is going to want a bag and we really need to improve our secondary.

Next steps for this team are improvements in the pass rush, d backfield and running the ball. IMO thats what separates the Vikings from Detroit and Philly this season.

Could they do much more to solve those with JJM the QB instead of Darnold? Probably....

I'm also of the belief KOC and the system they run can get a lot of out of rook. Signing KOC/Phillps/McCown to long term contracts is incredibly important.

So thats a long way of saying, I would be OK with JJM especially if we could accelerate the improving the surround haVIng him the starter.

But I sure will be sad saying bye to good Sam.

Darnold is playing like you'd "hope" JJ McCarthy could play. So do you switch out the guy who's proven it for a guy that's proven nothing and hope he can play up to the standard of the guy you are letting walk? Darnold is still young and could play quarterback here for conceivably another ten
years. The flip side though is you've seen organizations, like the Giants and Daniel Jones, reward guys off one year of production only to have it bite them in the ass the very next season. That to me is the worry with Darnold. You'd like to see a longer pattern of production throughout a career before you pony up on a big contract.

I suspect a # of years ago, The Chiefs were having the same dialogue regarding Smith and a rookie named Mahomes. 

I like the vikings chances of having future success with this staff vs Zimmer's. With whatever route they go.

StickierBuns wrote:

Not only a great point, but one that concerns me as well. Can you trust Darnold beyond this year? I don't know.

The flip side of the flip side is Cousins really started playing well in KOC's system well into the 1st year and really came into his own in the 2nd.  He was a legitimate MVP candidate when he tore his Achilles.  Would Sam Darnold play even better next year after having +17 games in KOC's system? 

Sam made a bunch of boneheaded mistakes in the first couple games.  Those pretty much have gone away.  He's playing loose and confident in about everyone but TJ Hockenson (which is odd).  

So while Sam could certainly regress towards his mean he could also just be scratching the surface on what he could do in KOC's offense.

He's won me over to a certain extent.  I'd be willing to pay 90 over 3 for him.  I wouldn't go higher or longer though.  I'd also entertain tagging him but understand thats a shit move for the player.

Just because another team offers more money than the Vikings would offer (if they decide to) doesn't mean Darnold would take it. After his experience with the dysfunctional organizations that is the Jets and Panthers maybe he likes the situation he is in and would take less than market to stay with everything the Vikings offer besides money. Brady did it with the Patriots and maybe Sam would decide the team and culture is better than a crappy situation for more money. Another thing to consider is JJ is only 21 years old so maybe another year or two behind Darold is not such a bad thing, Packers did that with Love.

This season just seems like there is a confidence that when Darnold is on the field they are going to find some way to make things happen, except for when they played the Rams. Even when they lost to the Lions it always felt like they were going to find a way to pull it out.

My biggest concern is injury to the starting QB, whether it's JJM or Sam. Most QBs get injured sometime during the season and a NFL season is a marathon. We've experienced how an entire season can be derailed when you only have one franchise type QB who goes down with an injury. Having two very capable QBs sure improves your chances of getting hot down the stretch. But how much do you pay for such insurance? I think a lot of the decision will come down to Sam and what kind of contract he demands. He seems to really like being part of the Vikings but will he be willing to leave millions on the table to remain a Viking.

Enter Daniel Jones.

Greylock wrote:
Just because another team offers more money than the Vikings would offer (if they decide to) doesn't mean Darnold would take it.  After his experience with the dysfunctional organizations that is the Jets and Panthers maybe he likes the situation he is in and would take less than market to stay with everything the Vikings offer besides money.  Brady did it with the Patriots and maybe Sam would decide the team and culture is better than a crappy situation for more money.  Another thing to consider is JJ is only 21 years old so maybe another year or two behind Darold is not such a bad thing, Packers did that with Love.

This season just seems like there is a confidence that when Darnold is on the field they are going to find some way to make things happen, except for when they played the Rams.  Even when they lost to the Lions it always felt like they were going to find a way to pull it out.

Some good reminders...LOVE sat for what? 3 seasons?

As others have said, not sure Darnold will take a short term deal here? I guess that depends on his other options. Going to be an interesting off-season discussion for sure. 

I rank it right up there with keeping an exemplary coaching staff. 

Sure has been a fun season so far though. Thank you Vikings.

NorseFeathers wrote:
My biggest concern is injury to the starting QB, whether it's JJM or Sam. Most QBs get injured sometime during the season and a NFL season is a marathon. We've experienced how an entire season can be derailed when you only have one franchise type QB who goes down with an injury. Having two very capable QBs sure improves your chances of getting hot down the stretch. But how much do you pay for such insurance? I think a lot of the decision will come down to Sam and what kind of contract he demands. He seems to really like being part of the Vikings but will he be willing to leave millions on the table to remain a Viking.

Enter Daniel Jones.

If I'm Sam I'm taking the biggest bag out there.  He's made $65M in his career but another $100+ is what he's starring down

AGRforever wrote:

If I'm Sam I'm taking the biggest bag out there.  He's made $65M in his career but another $100+ is what he's starring down

is he though?  Is somebody going to pay him 100 mill guaranteed?  I find it highly unlikely that he repeats this success with anther team so unless all that money is guaranteed... its a huge gamble for him to walk away from Minny when any other team will be able to cut and run when the guaranteed money is gone and if he does regress,  all his success will be for nothing and his career will likely be over, or at least his chance to be a starter for the better part of the next decade.

on the flip side,  the biggest upside to JJM is his rookie deal,  we've already lost 1 year of growth,  how many more years are you willing to shelf him, because if you pay Sam even lower tier starter money,  it will be damn hard to move off him unless he is really F'n grateful and give us the mother of all discounts.

We could sign Sam & trade JJM for like 3 #1 picks, bird in hand thinking…  :cool: :angel:

After the Vikings beat the Cards last week, the post game interview with Darnold was telling to me. He seemed a bit emotional and said, There’s no where I’d rather play.
Maybe that was the moment, maybe it was him thinking about next year and not being here, maybe he really wants to be here. Maybe he saw the Jones signing and knew the writing is on the wall. So, maybe he takes a team friendly deal and stays a bit longer, if offered. At least until JJ gets all the way back, he’d be the #1.
It’s a tough call, but I honestly think KOC can take a qb and make them better and will call a game to make them successful.
I’m honestly good either way this plays out.

JimmyinSD wrote:

is he though?  Is somebody going to pay him 100 mill guaranteed?  I find it highly unlikely that he repeats this success with anther team so unless all that money is guaranteed... its a huge gamble for him to walk away from Minny when any other team will be able to cut and run when the guaranteed money is gone and if he does regress,  all his success will be for nothing and his career will likely be over, or at least his chance to be a starter for the better part of the next decade.

on the flip side,  the biggest upside to JJM is his rookie deal,  we've already lost 1 year of growth,  how many more years are you willing to shelf him, because if you pay Sam even lower tier starter money,  it will be damn hard to move off him unless he is really F'n grateful and give us the mother of all discounts.

It boils down to this: is Sam Darnold "fixed" or is his success just a reflection of our system and supporting cast? I think it's a combination of both. So whoever offers him big money would be wise to try to keep as much of that as possible. As a few of us have suggested, they could bring over Wes Phillips or Josh McNown to run his offense. They still won't have Justin, Jordan or TJ, but it would be a start.

It's kinda funny looking at the NFL TD passing leaders right now...

You got Joe Burrow #1 (30) and Lamar #2 (29)... then you have the trio of Baker Mayfield (28), Sam Darnold (28), and Jared Goff (25).

Baker, Darnold, and Goff are all former top 3 picks that "busted" with their original teams and then ended up in good situations on different teams and turned it around.

MaroonBells wrote:

It boils down to this: is Sam Darnold "fixed" or is his success just a reflection of our system and supporting cast? I think it's a combination of both. So whoever offers him big money would be wise to try to keep as much of that as possible. As a few of us have suggested, they could bring over Wes Phillips or Josh McNown to run his offense. They still won't have Justin, Jordan or TJ, but it would be a start.

I think its a combination of things,  but I dont think any one thing is the key,  you could try and duplicate our offense or qb room,  but like you said,  its imitation not duplication.  Lets face it,  he's having a career year,  but if you remove any of the pieces...do you still have a good Sam,  or do you have the Sam that many of us expected?  I think its very high risk to assume that 1 year in this system (with plays called by the HC)  can be duplicated elsewhere simply by taking 1 player and 1 coach.

IMO his highest value should come from the Vikings,  but even then,  I would not back up the brinks truck without a lot of incentives and stipulations.

MaroonBells wrote:

It boils down to this: is Sam Darnold "fixed" or is his success just a reflection of our system and supporting cast? I think it's a combination of both. So whoever offers him big money would be wise to try to keep as much of that as possible. As a few of us have suggested, they could bring over Wes Phillips or Josh McNown to run his offense. They still won't have Justin, Jordan or TJ, but it would be a start.

I don't think he's "fixed" per se.  I think our supporting cast, coaching, and play calling have helped hide his flaws.  We've seen them pop up throughout the season and they are still there.

That said, I do think he's playing with more confidence than he ever has in his career.  Credit goes to the coaching and culture KOC has established here and Darnold for embracing it and taking advantage of this opportunity.

MAD GAINZ wrote:

I don't think he's "fixed" per se.  I think our supporting cast, coaching, and play calling have helped hide his flaws.  We've seen them pop up throughout the season and they are still there.

That said, I do think he's playing with more confidence than he ever has in his career.  Credit goes to the coaching and culture KOC has established here and Darnold for embracing it and taking advantage of this opportunity.

I disagree...to a degree. Is he going to replicate what he's doing for us for any team that signs him? Obviously not. But I think even in a different offense with lesser weapons, he'll be a better QB than he was for Carolina and New York. I think KOC and McNown have coached a few things out of him...and into him.

I think the real question I have is can $40M/year Darnold lead a vikings team without Flores to a SB? So many of our wins this year is due to our defense being so good. Like if we're rolling with a middle of the road defense with a more mortal 3-4 DC and the same pieces, where does that lead us?

I think we can resign Darnold and a lot of our defense and we'll have a window for a bit. I'm not that worried about money in the short term.

If we saw the Sam Darnold of this past game much more consistently throughout the season, where the offense is ripping through teams, I would feel a lot more confident that our offense under Darnold could carry the team, but we're pretty stacked on offense and we haven't been dominating teams like we'll probably need to going forward.

That said, I imagine we're going to do what we did with Kirk. We're going to assess his worth, give him a contract offer that reflects his worth to us and let him make a choice between us and the market, and what we'll pay will be less commitment than other more desperate teams. I kind of imagine that we'll offer something like 2 years $80M guaranteed and some other team will offer him 3-4 years $100M guaranteed and we'll see where that leaves things.

supafreak84 wrote:
Darnold is playing like you'd "hope" JJ McCarthy could play. So do you switch out the guy who's proven it for a guy that's proven nothing and hope he can play up to the standard of the guy you are letting walk? Darnold is still young and could play quarterback here for conceivably another ten years. The flip side though is you've seen organizations, like the Giants and Daniel Jones, reward guys off one year of production only to have it bite them in the ass the very next season. That to me is the worry with Darnold. You'd like to see a longer pattern of production throughout a career before you pony up on a big contract.

Good comp with Daniel Jones but the difference is we do still have McCarthy.

So let's say we do pay Sam a bunch of money based off one good year. If he straight sucks next year, then we're in the position the Falcons are in right now. If the WORST case scenario is we're a middling team in a bad but not insurmountable short term cap situation because of Darnold's dead money, that's crummy but not crippling.

Best case scenario is-- like someone else mentioned earlier-- he takes a step up in year 2 of this system. And the most likely scenario is in the middle where he keeps playing well and McCarthy gets another year to learn.

The more I think about this, I think my favorite option is extend Sam, and I'd do it today if possible because I believe he is "fixed" and will continue to play well. Option 2 is the franchise tag while still trying to extend. Option 3 and the one I really hate is let him walk out the door for nothing and take some of our braintrust with him.

StickierBuns wrote:

Darnold is not fixed, he is playing better. More season to play and playoffs to either crown him or not.

Yah, the remaining schedule isnt a cake-walk by any means

Do you guys realize Sammy is set to out preform Randall Cunningham (although in more games) in the '98 season?

Cunningham: 3704 yards, 34TD, 10INts 106 Rating
The Darnold: YTD 3299 yards, 28TD, 10INts 108.1 Rating
Darnold projected: 4313 yards, 36Td, 13Ints

Darnold in 15 games (What Cunningham played in 98): 3806 yards, 32Tds, 11.5Ints

For fun, Daunte Culpepper 2004: 4717yards, 39TD, 11 Ints, 110.9rating. Probably the greatest season ever in the history of Vikings QB'ing. Sammy will end up just short. He was supposed to be a stopgap who won 6.5 games.