Who ever wins the election, will have an economy tailwind

purplefaithful wrote:
Did the Fed pull off a rare "soft landing?" ===========================================

Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s a slightly weaker pace than the second quarter’s 3% rate and above the 2.6% rate economists projected in a FactSet poll. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.

Wednesday’s report comes after earlier data showed the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, inflation is a whisper away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and consumer confidence jumped this month by the fastest clip since March 2021, according to The Conference Board — all signs of a robust economy.

Despite all that, consumer moods remain gloomier than in pre-pandemic times, according to surveys. One popular explanation for that paradox is simply that price levels are now much higher than what they were in 2019 before the pandemic. While the Fed’s aggressive action to slow that inflation has pulled down the pace of price increases since reaching a four-decade peak in 2022, the lingering trauma of high inflation remains.

Regardless, American shoppers continued to fuel economic growth in the third quarter with their spending, according to Wednesday’s GDP report. That marked by far the biggest contributor to growth in the third quarter. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. Spending accelerated sharply in the third quarter, driven by purchases of big-ticket items, while spending on services eased a bit.

Businesses continued to invest during the July-through-September period, though at a slightly softer pace than earlier in the year. Government spending at both the federal and state level also contributed to third-quarter growth.

The Fed slashed interest rates in September for the first time in more than four years, by a bold half point. It was a sign that Fed officials felt confident enough that inflation had come under control just enough to begin paring back rates to shift more attention to the job market. The Fed is tasked by Congress to stabilize prices and maximize employment through its interest rate policy.

The International Monetary Fund expects US GDP to expand at an annualized 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter, higher than the IMF’s July forecast. That would be the strongest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies.

considering the numbers manipulation that has been tried, exposed, and tried again with about every analytic coming out of DC... how can anyone believe any of this? How many times can we fall for the same charade? Like when they talk about jobs lost vs jobs created when they dont differentiate between full and part time jobs, or the wages they pay adjusted for inflation, or the crime statistics that when you go review the reports you find out the new reports leave out certain major cities that would have painted the picture much differently. I think we are just starting to see things tighten up, we are not seeing the new construction starts that we were seeing and the private money is still largely on the sideline waiting for construction costs to come down. Farmers are getting tighter with their spending as well ( lower prices and higher inputs means less profits, less profits means less they will spend to avoid paying the taxes at year end) I think we are at least a year away from seeing how things are doing, and that really depends on how this election turns out. 4 more years of reckless spending and we will be in a much worse place than we were before they started jacking the interest rates IMO.

Both the GDP number and Employment numbers are VERY likely overstated. The monthly/quarterly numbers have virtually all been adjusted down in the past year. July and August employment numbers both missed forecasts and June and July were adjusted down despite being disappointing in the first place. The US debt is dragging the economy down and will continue to until spending is under control. Two ways to fix that...supercharge the economy and increase tax revenues or significantly reduce costs. I guess we'll see how the election turns out. You could tell how the financial institutions feel about the Feds reduction in Prime...the long term interest rates (mortgages) actually crept up meaning they don't believe yet in any recovery.

I dont expect a deficit reduction any time soon, regardless of who is in office.

There won't be one.

We're basically being offered sequels of our last couple of 4-year prez terms, COVID notwithstanding. Both added to the deficit, though both had record-setting DOW periods, too.

What matters is how the "average Joes" fared, and either treason club had been decisively better, the polls wouldn't be within the margins of error.

Just out today. US only added 12,000 jobs in October. Forecasted for 110,000. The worst part is if the last year has taught us anything, that 12,000 will be revised down.

It was a weaker jobs report and it was expected to be weaker with the hurricanes and strikes.

Go one layer deeper; Govt and Health Care continued to add jobs but leisure and hospitality lost jobs.

I'm not saying all is rosy and fixed, prices are still too high and borrowing is too. But there are a # of indicators that are trending positive. I expect that to accelerate under a Trump or Harris administration.

purplefaithful wrote:
I dont expect a deficit reduction any time soon, regardless of who is in office.

At least their talking about it this time around both in terms of growing the economy and reducing spending.

badgervike wrote:

At least their talking about it this time around both in terms of growing the economy and reducing spending.

They are and time will tell what's just bluster and what's reality. I am not a D. Trump supporter, but I am supportive of that administration doing good things for the country as a whole.

purplefaithful wrote:
It was a weaker jobs report and it was expected to be weaker with the hurricanes and strikes.

Go one layer deeper; Govt and Health Care continued to add jobs but leisure and hospitality lost jobs.

I'm not saying all is rosy and fixed, prices are still too high and borrowing is too. But there are a # of indicators that are trending positive. I expect that to accelerate under a Trump or Harris administration.

It will be far more like headwinds than tailwinds.

Waterboy wrote:

It will be far more like headwinds than tailwinds.

Inflation is enemy #1.

Prices for basics are just too high for much of the country...Target sounded the alarm bells today, discretionary spending isn't there and thats their bread/butter not groceries (i.e. Walmart). 

Inflation has cooled, but prices are not rolling back for the most part. It will take years for compensation/income to catch-up with how prices have increased. 

I dont expect ANY of the mfgrs/retailers to take a hit to margin and roll back on their own. 

Hell, I was in a hurry and swung by McDonalds yesterday. I could have gotten a value meal for $5, but instead ordered a Fillet O Fish + Small Fry + bottled water. 

Cost?

$11.72

It's going to get more brutal as the "tough tariffs" hit, because the penalties hit the consumers very hard...says essentially every economist.

Any progress/concessions take months if not longer, meanwhile the everyday shoppers are fiscally molested until things change.

It's still a legit strategy, but anyone thinking the bleeding will just suddenly slow/stop are tragically naive.

purplefaithful wrote:

Inflation is enemy #1.

Prices for basics are just too high for much of the country...Target sounded the alarm bells today, discretionary spending isn't there and thats their bread/butter not groceries (i.e. Walmart). 

Inflation has cooled, but prices are not rolling back for the most part. It will take years for compensation/income to catch-up with how prices have increased. 

I dont expect ANY of the mfgrs/retailers to take a hit to margin and roll back on their own. 

Hell, I was in a hurry and swung by McDonalds yesterday. I could have gotten a value meal for $5, but instead ordered a Fillet O Fish + Small Fry + bottled water. 

Cost?

$11.72

Don't disagree with much of what you're saying.   All Biden did was print money, consumers ran up debt, and the price increases boomed hard and fast to catch up.  Then it slowed, mostly because it had to.  Inflationary pressures due to energy, supply chain, etc. are still there, but the boom in inflation simply got us mostly whole so that we shouldn't see a surge but a proportionate progression.  The underlying fundamentals still must be addressed that will most likely result in a slow-down of the economy.  I do think optimism is a large part of the story, and I think people have faith that Trump's lower energy prices, and maybe even ability to create a larger export market could ultimately lead to smaller stabilized growth, but it's a fine line.   Biden should be court-martialed and sentenced to life in front of a firing squad, but that's a story for another day.  (I guess more so those that advised / purposely fooled Biden)

Waterboy wrote:

Don't disagree with much of what you're saying.   All Biden did was print money, consumers ran up debt, and the price increases boomed hard and fast to catch up.  Then it slowed, mostly because it had to.  Inflationary pressures due to energy, supply chain, etc. are still there, but the boom in inflation simply got us mostly whole so that we shouldn't see a surge but a proportionate progression.  The underlying fundamentals still must be addressed that will most likely result in a slow-down of the economy.  I do think optimism is a large part of the story, and I think people have faith that Trump's lower energy prices, and maybe even ability to create a larger export market could ultimately lead to smaller stabilized growth, but it's a fine line.   Biden should be court-martialed and sentenced to life in front of a firing squad, but that's a story for another day.  (I guess more so those that advised / purposely fooled Biden)

It wasnt biden,  he was just the pitchman,  if you want to pass judgement..then make it on those really in charge,  sure as fuck wasnt biden or harris.  Hell people like to put obama into that mix,  i dont think hes much more than a foot soldier for the debacle and destruction of the US under the biden administration.

JimmyinSD wrote:

It wasnt biden,  he was just the pitchman,  if you want to pass judgement..then make it in those really in charge,  sure as fuck wasnt biden or harris.  Hell people like to put obama into that mix,  i dont think hes much more than a foot soldier for the debacle and destruction of the US under the biden administration.

Okay, who was or is in charge of this nefarious grand plan?  Enlighten me, Soros perhaps, wasn't the Kochs or Musk.  Who or what group am I unaware of or following.  Should I follow the money trail, perhaps?  Help me out, when Biden took office I couldn't buy toilet paper or bleach, let alone go out to dinner. There was also a lot of people in my demographic dying.  Give me a cogent explanation of who these powerful puppet masters are, I want to know.

BigAl99 wrote:

Okay, who was or is in charge of this nefarious grand plan?  Enlighten me, Soros perhaps, wasn't the Kochs or Musk.  Who or what group am I unaware of or following.  Should I follow the money trail, perhaps?  Help me out, when Biden took office I couldn't buy toilet paper or bleach, let alone go out to dinner. There was also a lot of people in my demographic dying.  Give me a cogent explanation of who these powerful puppet masters are, I want to know.

And why couldnt you do those things or buy those products.... Trump and most republicans were urging people to get back to work  in early spring prior to the election,  why was it that the democrat states kept pushing ineffective mandates and lockdowns?  Yes follow the money,  but dont forget the money to be made by controlling our branches of govt.  And this last part isnt a partisan statement,  there is an aweful stench of corruption surrounding the rinos as well.

JimmyinSD wrote:
And why couldnt you do those things or buy those products.... Trump and most republicans were urging people to get back to work  in early spring prior to the election,  why was it that the democrat states kept pushing ineffective mandates and lockdowns?  Yes follow the money,  but dont forget the money to be made by controlling our branches of govt.  And this last part isnt a partisan statement,  there is an aweful stench of corruption surrounding the rinos as well.

No one could, our supply chain had failed, all before Biden became president.  While we were waiting for the "Kung foo flu" to be overwith by spring.

Back to my question, who has been pulling the strings?  BLM leader's

JimmyinSD wrote:

It wasnt biden,  he was just the pitchman,  if you want to pass judgement..then make it on those really in charge,  sure as fuck wasnt biden or harris.  Hell people like to put obama into that mix,  i dont think hes much more than a foot soldier for the debacle and destruction of the US under the biden administration.

That's a great clarification Jimmy.  I'm using him figuratively as a symbol of who was supposedly running the show.  We all know it wasn't him.

BigAl99 wrote:

No one could, our supply chain had failed, all before Biden became president.  While we were waiting for the "Kung foo flu" to be overwith by spring.

Back to my question, who has been pulling the strings?  BLM leader's

We were going out to eat by spring/early summer, if you werent that was on you or your choice of where you lived.  The supply chain issues were largely caused by liberal states and their ridiculous extended mandates,  and media hyped insanity,  all parts of a set up to keep the sheep scared to allow for election manipulation IMO.  If you felt better and safer through all that... good for you, if you still think all that state overreach was in the best interest of the people.. well I am not sure what there is to say.

as far as the individuals,  I dont bother chasing the names as I have no way to act or use whatever/whoever I would find,  but I can say that those in DC arent the real cause,  they are merely the puppets,  the real smart power people know that the best way to keep their positions of power is to stay in the shadows,  use their billions to control some millionaire politicians to keep their cycle of wealth and control in place.  That is why Trump is such a threat,  he has shown that they cant control him.  That is why certain patriots have jumped party lines to back Trump,  and why certain shit stains (like the Cheney family) have done the opposite IMO.  

We have all kinds of people saying they want to see reform and change in our govt,  but when somebody bucks the political landscape, those same people drink the koolaid and line up against them.  History may prove me wrong here, but I am betting in 50 years that if we still have a country,  its survival or failure will stem back to the actions around the last 8 years and the next 4 to come.

feel free to disagree, and take points away from me,  I dont care,  but like I said,  this isnt partisan.. hell I lobby against Thune, Rounds, Johsnon, and Noem, have vote for Dems against them at times when the Dems actually line up a real challenger.  I see the corruption on both sides of the aisle, and while Trump is far from a perfect candidate, I see him as the best option at the time to send a big middle finger to those that are buying control of our country through our electoral process and owning politicians.  Even though there was an R next to his name,  Trump was hardly representing the big money that has controlled the Rs and Ds for the last several decades IMO.   

You said it yourself,  follow the money,  who profited most from covid and our mess of a medical system, big pharma and others,  who benefits from the endless string of wars and conflicts our country funds and gets involved in... the military complex,  nearly everything that happens through our govt either with laws, presidential orders, or simply shit adopted by the endless string of govt agencies, works against the average American worker and to the benefit of some mega money company/industry,  if something does happen to benefit the working class... well that is just coincidental to the real money being made by some corporation or investment group.

If Trump does nothing more than cause more shake up in the traditional 2 party system... then its a win for America, if he can accomplish much of anything he says he will do, then its just that much better for us all, whether we realize or will acknowledge it, or not.

JimmyinSD wrote:

We were going out to eat by spring/early summer, if you werent that was on you or your choice of where you lived.  The supply chain issues were largely caused by liberal states and their ridiculous extended mandates,  and media hyped insanity,  all parts of a set up to keep the sheep scared to allow for election manipulation IMO.  If you felt better and safer through all that... good for you, if you still think all that state overreach was in the best interest of the people.. well I am not sure what there is to say.

as far as the individuals,  I dont bother chasing the names as I have no way to act or use whatever/whoever I would find,  but I can say that those in DC arent the real cause,  they are merely the puppets,  the real smart power people know that the best way to keep their positions of power is to stay in the shadows,  use their billions to control some millionaire politicians to keep their cycle of wealth and control in place.  That is why Trump is such a threat,  he has shown that they cant control him.  That is why certain patriots have jumped party lines to back Trump,  and why certain shit stains (like the Cheney family) have done the opposite IMO.  

We have all kinds of people saying they want to see reform and change in our govt,  but when somebody bucks the political landscape, those same people drink the koolaid and line up against them.  History may prove me wrong here, but I am betting in 50 years that if we still have a country,  its survival or failure will stem back to the actions around the last 8 years and the next 4 to come.

feel free to disagree, and take points away from me,  I dont care,  but like I said,  this isnt partisan.. hell I lobby against Thune, Rounds, Johsnon, and Noem, have vote for Dems against them at times when the Dems actually line up a real challenger.  I see the corruption on both sides of the aisle, and while Trump is far from a perfect candidate, I see him as the best option at the time to send a big middle finger to those that are buying control of our country through our electoral process and owning politicians.  Even though there was an R next to his name,  Trump was hardly representing the big money that has controlled the Rs and Ds for the last several decades IMO.   

You said it yourself,  follow the money,  who profited most from covid and our mess of a medical system, big pharma and others,  who benefits from the endless string of wars and conflicts our country funds and gets involved in... the military complex,  nearly everything that happens through our govt either with laws, presidential orders, or simply shit adopted by the endless string of govt agencies, works against the average American worker and to the benefit of some mega money company/industry,  if something does happen to benefit the working class... well that is just coincidental to the real money being made by some corporation or investment group.

If Trump does nothing more than cause more shake up in the traditional 2 party system... then its a win for America, if he can accomplish much of anything he says he will do, then its just that much better for us all, whether we realize or will acknowledge it, or not.

I guess that say's it all.  Enjoy that SD cuisine and fine dining.  Points are just rent in low cost housing.
Thanks

BigAl99 wrote:

I guess that say's it all.  Enjoy that SD cuisine and fine dining.  Points are just rent in low cost housing.
Thanks

And apparently you want to be the slum lord...well, God bless your heart.