Who ever wins the election, will have an economy tailwind
Did the Fed pull off a rare "soft landing?"
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Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s a slightly weaker pace than the second quarter’s 3% rate and above the 2.6% rate economists projected in a FactSet poll. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.
Wednesday’s report comes after earlier data showed the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, inflation is a whisper away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and consumer confidence jumped this month by the fastest clip since March 2021, according to The Conference Board — all signs of a robust economy.
Despite all that, consumer moods remain gloomier than in pre-pandemic times, according to surveys. One popular explanation for that paradox is simply that price levels are now much higher than what they were in 2019 before the pandemic. While the Fed’s aggressive action to slow that inflation has pulled down the pace of price increases since reaching a four-decade peak in 2022, the lingering trauma of high inflation remains.
Regardless, American shoppers continued to fuel economic growth in the third quarter with their spending, according to Wednesday’s GDP report. That marked by far the biggest contributor to growth in the third quarter. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. Spending accelerated sharply in the third quarter, driven by purchases of big-ticket items, while spending on services eased a bit.
Businesses continued to invest during the July-through-September period, though at a slightly softer pace than earlier in the year. Government spending at both the federal and state level also contributed to third-quarter growth.
The Fed slashed interest rates in September for the first time in more than four years, by a bold half point. It was a sign that Fed officials felt confident enough that inflation had come under control just enough to begin paring back rates to shift more attention to the job market. The Fed is tasked by Congress to stabilize prices and maximize employment through its interest rate policy.
The International Monetary Fund expects US GDP to expand at an annualized 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter, higher than the IMF’s July forecast. That would be the strongest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies.
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
For the non-fans of the orange debacle, it's fascinating how much pure fiction, how many quotes that are absolute bulls**t, how many times his people like Tulsi and Vance wince when confronted with their boss' psycho-babble, are just...uninteresting to his fan club.
They shrieked and stomped about the lies from the dnc's stooges, but they have no issue with their liar-boi.
They just wave away references to the constant arrogant, childish, petulant rhetoric from that clown...and it's constant...but, will sit, seething with their chosen FOXMAX echo chamber propaganda outlet, at any slight from the adversaries.
It's a helluva thing to watch from the sidelines, and I just wonder...as at least half of the cabinet picks seem to be based on "DUMBEST POSSIBLE IDEA" standings...is it just about upsetting people? I know the babble is "he's an outsider, and he'll upset the status quo!"...but, that's bulls**t, he rubbed elbows with many "swampers", and appointing potential human traffickers, TV fraud shills, and obvious toadies is just setting up his own "echo inner circle".
Gaetz was an obvious disaster as an appointee, glad it played out early. Oz is the face of every fake diet pill in infomercial history, more than his surgical history. It's just...so strange, AGAIN, from the bleacher seats....
KOC, JJM, Flores...make a good plan, or you'll be following Kwesi....
Zanary wrote:
For the non-fans of the orange debacle, it's fascinating how much pure fiction, how many quotes that are absolute bulls**t, how many times his people like Tulsi and Vance wince when confronted with their boss' psycho-babble, are just...uninteresting to his fan club.They shrieked and stomped about the lies from the dnc's stooges, but they have no issue with their liar-boi.
They just wave away references to the constant arrogant, childish, petulant rhetoric from that clown...and it's constant...but, will sit, seething with their chosen FOXMAX echo chamber propaganda outlet, at any slight from the adversaries.
It's a helluva thing to watch from the sidelines, and I just wonder...as at least half of the cabinet picks seem to be based on "DUMBEST POSSIBLE IDEA" standings...is it just about upsetting people? I know the babble is "he's an outsider, and he'll upset the status quo!"...but, that's bulls**t, he rubbed elbows with many "swampers", and appointing potential human traffickers, TV fraud shills, and obvious toadies is just setting up his own "echo inner circle".
Gaetz was an obvious disaster as an appointee, glad it played out early. Oz is the face of every fake diet pill in infomercial history, more than his surgical history. It's just...so strange, AGAIN, from the bleacher seats....
This is the stuff that keeps you up at night Z?
Appointees
Dr Oz is appointed to head Medicare and Medicaid. Quick...without looking...who's the current head of Medicare and Medicaid? Yea..I don't know either.
I have 3 theories on the Gaetz nomination;
1) Obviously, Trump is looking for a loyalist bulldog for his AG in the like of Obama's "wingman' Holder or Garland for Biden. Let's face it, our intelligence agencies need some shaking up and get back to their primary roles
2) There's (non-criminal) incriminating stuff in the House investigation of Gaetz. I say non-criminal because the Justice Department would have certainly charged one of their biggest critics in Gaetz if they had the goods. This way, Gaetz can resign without the information coming out. There's lots of dirt in these investigations over the years that has been buried as a member is no longer in office.
3) Related to the above, I'm not sure Trump didn't use the above information to throw out a stalking horse to get shot down. The Dems know they don't have control and can't block many nominations. This gives them one high profile one. They know they can likely only press one or two more. It didn't take long before they announced Bondi...the Queen of "chad gate". Al Gore is still screaming that she cost him the election.
Again, for a guy that has beat the drum of small government for as long as I've been on these boards...I'm not sure why you're not a little more happy that there's some movement in that direction. It may end up like Reagan's Grace Commission with not a lot to show for it...or it might just be transformational. It'll be interesting to find out.
Zanary wrote:
For the non-fans of the orange debacle, it's fascinating how much pure fiction, how many quotes that are absolute bulls**t, how many times his people like Tulsi and Vance wince when confronted with their boss' psycho-babble, are just...uninteresting to his fan club.They shrieked and stomped about the lies from the dnc's stooges, but they have no issue with their liar-boi.
They just wave away references to the constant arrogant, childish, petulant rhetoric from that clown...and it's constant...but, will sit, seething with their chosen FOXMAX echo chamber propaganda outlet, at any slight from the adversaries.
It's a helluva thing to watch from the sidelines, and I just wonder...as at least half of the cabinet picks seem to be based on "DUMBEST POSSIBLE IDEA" standings...is it just about upsetting people? I know the babble is "he's an outsider, and he'll upset the status quo!"...but, that's bulls**t, he rubbed elbows with many "swampers", and appointing potential human traffickers, TV fraud shills, and obvious toadies is just setting up his own "echo inner circle".
Gaetz was an obvious disaster as an appointee, glad it played out early. Oz is the face of every fake diet pill in infomercial history, more than his surgical history. It's just...so strange, AGAIN, from the bleacher seats....
I'm just observing all the happenings...
Look, I dont want this administration to fail. We need it to succeed. I just hope the benefits he "may bring" isnt accompanied with going medieval on groups in our country already marginalized. And I am not talking illegal immigrant criminals.
As far as the nominees to-date, Gaetz was a disaster from the get-go, especially as an AG. ZERO chance, killed by the Republicans themselves.
I dont know if Hegseth will make it through or not. There are times where I have to wonder if the qualifications these people possess for a position are skills/job based or is it solely about loyalty and ability to disrupt?
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
badgervike wrote:
This is the stuff that keeps you up at night Z?Appointees
Dr Oz is appointed to head Medicare and Medicaid. Quick...without looking...who's the current head of Medicare and Medicaid? Yea..I don't know either.I have 3 theories on the Gaetz nomination;
1) Obviously, Trump is looking for a loyalist bulldog for his AG in the like of Obama's "wingman' Holder or Garland for Biden. Let's face it, our intelligence agencies need some shaking up and get back to their primary roles
2) There's (non-criminal) incriminating stuff in the House investigation of Gaetz. I say non-criminal because the Justice Department would have certainly charged one of their biggest critics in Gaetz if they had the goods. This way, Gaetz can resign without the information coming out. There's lots of dirt in these investigations over the years that has been buried as a member is no longer in office.
3) Related to the above, I'm not sure Trump didn't use the above information to throw out a stalking horse to get shot down. The Dems know they don't have control and can't block many nominations. This gives them one high profile one. They know they can likely only press one or two more. It didn't take long before they announced Bondi...the Queen of "chad gate". Al Gore is still screaming that she cost him the election.Again, for a guy that has beat the drum of small government for as long as I've been on these boards...I'm not sure why you're not a little more happy that there's some movement in that direction. It may end up like Reagan's Grace Commission with not a lot to show for it...or it might just be transformational. It'll be interesting to find out.
"Assumed" smaller government, because...the gop supposedly wanted that for generations, accomplished the opposite, and now they're headed by the most constant liar I've ever witnessed. You're assuming his word is worth something, I'm pointing out how often that it's not.
Not keeping me up at night, but I wanted to explain some of my viewpoint. It's genuinely very interesting to me that people who hissed and snarled over the lies and hypocrisies of the dnc for years/administrations are empowering (again) a completely shameless liar/hypocrite, and have ushered in an era of the gop where the shrieking whackos like MTG, Elon, Lake, etc, have replaced the former captains of industry and the like from the previous version.
It's almost worth doing a psych paper on, but the expenses and time for the needed travel/interviews would be terrifying.
KOC, JJM, Flores...make a good plan, or you'll be following Kwesi....
Is there a point where this thread may be worth revisiting? What metrics would be relevant, grocery, energy, inflation, employment....? What statistics should we use, since we can't believe anything from a Fed source, perhaps memes, corvette boards or rural AM radio?
BigAl99 wrote:
Is there a point where this thread may be worth revisiting? What metrics would be relevant, grocery, energy, inflation, employment....? What statistics should we use, since we can't believe anything from a Fed source, perhaps memes, corvette boards or rural AM radio?
its "transitory", wasnt that the term you were using nearly a year after the last election when shit was still heading south?... and its only been 1 month, maybe a bit early for trying to dish crow.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
JimmyinSD wrote:
its "transitory", wasnt that the term you were using nearly a year after the last election when shit was still heading south?... and its only been 1 month, maybe a bit early for trying to dish crow.
...especially as the tariff snarling with all involved will ALWAYS, according to economists everywhere, cost the consumer first and always.
It's gonna get worse, first...and likely for some time. Orange boi's act is showing cracks early, even among his enablers.
KOC, JJM, Flores...make a good plan, or you'll be following Kwesi....
JimmyinSD wrote:
its "transitory", wasnt that the term you were using nearly a year after the last election when shit was still heading south?... and its only been 1 month, maybe a bit early for trying to dish crow.
Okay, I can see you are reticent to revisiting the original topic, of this thread. I ain't trying to dish crow, unless your saying you can't reply without eating some. If you want to talk about inflationary cycles, that's fine, but that wasn't the question. Just suggesting we adopt some common metrics and sources and then go toe to toe. Since some have said the stats from the Gov. are all wrong and can't be trusted, what should we use, $/gallon of gas, egg prices, mortgage rates, bond ratings.... Are there any employment numbers we can use?
And I'll admit I used the term transitory, it was early after the election, but before the full impact of COVID had unfolded, and some were in chicken little mode. I think it was in response to building materials cost being related to not approving the keystone pipeline or some crazy speculation like that. I didn't anticipate the complete collapse of private supply chains, and in my opinion that was caused more by corporate JIT efficiencies than any national policy. I did pivot and will be on the collection end of a CD ladder and some I bonds, how did you do?
BigAl99 wrote:
Okay, I can see you are reticent to revisiting the original topic, of this thread. I ain't trying to dish crow, unless your saying you can't reply without eating some. If you want to talk about inflationary cycles, that's fine, but that wasn't the question. Just suggesting we adopt some common metrics and sources and then go toe to toe. Since some have said the stats from the Gov. are all wrong and can't be trusted, what should we use, $/gallon of gas, egg prices, mortgage rates, bond ratings.... Are there any employment numbers we can use?
And I'll admit I used the term transitory, it was early after the election, but before the full impact of COVID had unfolded, and some were in chicken little mode. I think it was in response to building materials cost being related to not approving the keystone pipeline or some crazy speculation like that. I didn't anticipate the complete collapse of private supply chains, and in my opinion that was caused more by corporate JIT efficiencies than any national policy. I did pivot and will be on the collection end of a CD ladder and some I bonds, how did you do?
doesnt really matter how I did, its how the country did and it went on its ass. I can live with higher taxes ( when they are used wisely) I will champion for smaller government when it means less spending, but less for the average AMERICAN coupled with increased spending... thats where I call bull shit. The last 4 years were among the worst in US history, and sadly it had little to do with Covid. It was a policy failure coupled with theft. I did ok, but was doing better under Trump prior to covid, and honestly my biggest month in investments was shortly after the covid collapse when those on the wheel realized that the media wasnt telling the truth, but I am willing to admit that wasnt all from him, are you willing to say his policies aided your portfolio as well?
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
Zanary wrote:
...especially as the tariff snarling with all involved will ALWAYS, according to economists everywhere, cost the consumer first and always.
It's gonna get worse, first...and likely for some time. Orange boi's act is showing cracks early, even among his enablers.
as does about everything govt intervention does.... lets talk about taxing the rich... minimum wage hikes... increased regulations... who pays...the consumer, but one thing that may ( and I admit its not a lock) shift the balance, is countering the imbalance with tariffs and other such penalties to free trade. Our govt has done more to wreck our economy than any foreign action. We have this notion that we have to lead by example and all that does is cost American jobs and increase our taxes and cost. Programs like the recovery act and Arpa have done more damage to our debt and economy than any tariff. they used increased deficit spending to try and stimulate the economy when all they did was line the pockets of a select few and pass that debt expense onto every American tax payer in the future. at least with tariffs the pain is now, its affects can be seen, regulated, and controlled in the present instead of passing that financial burden onto our children.
Trump isnt the issue, its a fiscal matter IMO, you cant dig yourself out of a hole. its not that I am big Trump supporter, but he has at least put down the shovel economically, and has proven to be the least war mongering leader we have had in decades.
FUCK!!! I wasnt going to respond to you anymore...well tee it up, I have been drinking for 4 hours and forgot to moderate myself.
Why isn't Chuck Foreman in the Hall of Fame?
JimmyinSD wrote:
as does about everything govt intervention does.... lets talk about taxing the rich... minimum wage hikes... increased regulations... who pays...the consumer, but one thing that may ( and I admit its not a lock) shift the balance, is countering the imbalance with tariffs and other such penalties to free trade. Our govt has done more to wreck our economy than any foreign action. We have this notion that we have to lead by example and all that does is cost American jobs and increase our taxes and cost. Programs like the recovery act and Arpa have done more damage to our debt and economy than any tariff. they used increased deficit spending to try and stimulate the economy when all they did was line the pockets of a select few and pass that debt expense onto every American tax payer in the future. at least with tariffs the pain is now, its affects can be seen, regulated, and controlled in the present instead of passing that financial burden onto our children.
Trump isnt the issue, its a fiscal matter IMO, you cant dig yourself out of a hole. its not that I am big Trump supporter, but he has at least put down the shovel economically, and has proven to be the least war mongering leader we have had in decades.
FUCK!!! I wasnt going to respond to you anymore...well tee it up, I have been drinking for 4 hours and forgot to moderate myself.
...knock back another tall one, I really don't gun for you. As I've said many, many times here...I'm all about the dark humor and the rabid defenses of the indefensible.
I've never lied one bit when I say that I've watched our hideous prez lie like a rug for decades, nor that I found Biden's drooling decay to be tragic. I have zero faith, more likely negative faith, that our career attention whore president cares about anything above staying in the headlines...and the massive swings/misses/corrections by the DOGE stooges (who Elon heads, WHOOPS, doesn't actually work for...?) are clear proof of that. I mean, dismissal of nuclear arsenal people...cuts in the very people that are needed for fire prevention...huge, obvious revenge investigations/firings on anyone in gov't service that investigated and/or disagreed with him...
...and that's beyond his cuddling his mass-murder/rape fan buddy in Moscow...this is all in daily headlines of every news source that ISN'T covering his ass.
It's not about you. Yes, as long as the uncomprehending one insists on his usual poor gamesmanship, there will be "snips" (you're ok with those, remember?), and I don't think calling out defenses of large-scale frauds and murderers is out of line. In fact, society used to find that important.
I don't exist to complicate your world, or even to further your drinking. That said, I think a couple fingers and a single cube sound like a fine idea.
KOC, JJM, Flores...make a good plan, or you'll be following Kwesi....
JimmyinSD wrote:
doesnt really matter how I did, its how the country did and it went on its ass. I can live with higher taxes ( when they are used wisely) I will champion for smaller government when it means less spending, but less for the average AMERICAN coupled with increased spending... thats where I call bull shit. The last 4 years were among the worst in US history, and sadly it had little to do with Covid. It was a policy failure coupled with theft. I did ok, but was doing better under Trump prior to covid, and honestly my biggest month in investments was shortly after the covid collapse when those on the wheel realized that the media wasnt telling the truth, but I am willing to admit that wasnt all from him, are you willing to say his policies aided your portfolio as well?
Yeah I had a good three years, don't want to get into manhood measuring. The question is how are we going to quantify whats going on now? I know it's Friday night but could you clarify your last sentence the "on the wheel thing" and "media not telling the truth" kinda seemed non congruent. As this thread was about in November the economy was looking good, the tailwind thing, whoever was going to win would be in good shape.
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