Where will Kirk end up?

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"purplefaithful" said: As of 2/23/24: Kirk Cousins' Next Team Odds

Team	Odds	Implied Probability
Las Vegas Raiders	+325	23.5%
Atlanta Falcons	+350	22.2%
New England Patriots	+450	18.2%
Minnesota Vikings	+650	13.3%
Washington Commanders	+1000	9.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers	+1400	6.7%
Seattle Seahawks	+1500	6.3%
Denver Broncos	+1800	5.3%
The Field	+600	14.3%

https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/kirk-cousins-next-team-odds

This doesn't make any sense. I don't get the Raiders leading this. Kirk's a free agent, meaning he can sign with whomever he wants. I doubt the Raiders are one of those teams. And he sure as hell isn't going to sign with the Patriots, who have a terrible OL and no weapons. They are going to be historically bad in 24.

I still think it's a two-team race between the Falcons and Vikings. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal. 

If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year. 

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal. 

If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year. 

I’m a pretty big proponent of bringing Kirk back, but $51 mil/year is nuts

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I believe what Maroon is saying is right...  Kirk has come out and said publicly that the dollar amount isn't the sticking point, it's the structure.  If we look back at his previous contracts, they haven't set the bar for QBs in terms of total value and guarantees.  He's never been the highest paid QB in that regard, but he's always done 2-3 years fully guaranteed.  I would assume that's what he wants.  If you read between the lines, I'm guessing Kwesi doesn't want to do 3 years fully guaranteed like the previous regime.  I think it's 1 or 2 years with fully guaranteed money and that's why nothing got done last year either. It'll be interesting to see if either side caves in or not.

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal. 

If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year. 

I’m a pretty big proponent of bringing Kirk back, but $51 mil/year is nuts

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal. 

If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year. 

I’m a pretty big proponent of bringing Kirk back, but $51 mil/year is nuts

It's all nuts though. Yes, giving $51M to a QB coming off an achilles seems crazy, but keep in mind a couple things: Every new QB contract is always WAY higher than anyone projected. Think about the Kaepernick contract, the Carr contract, the Daniel Jones contract. That's the market. And this year we're doing it with $30M more dollars in the budget. A $51M AAV would rank Cousins 5th among QBs. He won't get that for multiple years, but he could maybe get it for one. 

I think all of us are going to be sticker-shocked by how big new contracts are this year. 

3 year contract, first two years guaranteed.  If we don't re-sign him, the dead cap hit ($28.5mm) is almost a full year salary.  Draft QBOTF (Bo Nix), let him sit for two years.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal. 

If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year. 

I’m a pretty big proponent of bringing Kirk back, but $51 mil/year is nuts

It's all nuts though. Yes, giving $51M to a QB coming off an achilles seems crazy, 

@"pattersaur" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him. 

Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.

I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal. 

If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year. 

I’m a pretty big proponent of bringing Kirk back, but $51 mil/year is nuts

It's all nuts though. Yes, giving $51M to a QB coming off an achilles seems crazy, 

The end. There’s no but in this scenario. If someone wants to give Kirk buckoo bucks and guarantees we need to have the discipline to let them.

EDIT: If KC will take that for one year, while we groom his replacement, I suppose that’s MAAAAYBE worth an overpay. So you’re right there is a “but”. My mistake! Any other situation though, no thank you. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

Will Ragatz

@WillRagatz

Kevin O’Connell: "Kirk Cousins knows how I feel about him, he knows how the Minnesota Vikings feel about him. I believe Kirk wants to be a Viking and we're going to work to make that the outcome."

Related to absolutely nothing- KO looking like he might need to get with his buddy McVay about some Beverly Hills hair plugs  :#

Well let's see, from throwing on a tennis court with a $15.00 Walmart football, the possibilities are endless. What's next, training in a Walmart parking lot?

Listening to Pat Kirwin on NFL Radio today and they were talking about Cousins and his contract. He thinks Kirk will be in the neighborhood of 50 million per season with most or all of it being guaranteed on a 3 year deal. Thinks Vikings are out of reach for one of the elite quarterbacks in the draft and "almost have to" give Cousins what he wants. Talked about Kwesi saying he "wasn't elite" last offseason, but could win with him. Thinks Kwesi needs to do "less talking and more doing" or this team is going to be at the bottom of the division.

Not much we didn't already know, but the rest of the league is definately watching what happens with the Vikings this offseason 

@"supafreak84" said: Listening to Pat Kirwin on NFL Radio today and they were talking about Cousins and his contract. He thinks Kirk will be in the neighborhood of 50 million per season with most or all of it being guaranteed on a 3 year deal. Thinks Vikings are out of reach for one of the elite quarterbacks in the draft and "almost have to" give Cousins what he wants. Talked about Kwesi saying he "wasn't elite" last offseason, but could win with him. Thinks Kwesi needs to do "less talking and more doing" or this team is going to be at the bottom of the division.

Not much we didn't already know, but the rest of the league is definately watching what happens with the Vikings this offseason 

I can see Kirwans numbers for Kirk, but I think that's more likely to come from another team. I don't think the Vikings will guarantee 3 years at any price. But I could be wrong. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"supafreak84" said: Listening to Pat Kirwin on NFL Radio today and they were talking about Cousins and his contract. He thinks Kirk will be in the neighborhood of 50 million per season with most or all of it being guaranteed on a 3 year deal. Thinks Vikings are out of reach for one of the elite quarterbacks in the draft and "almost have to" give Cousins what he wants. Talked about Kwesi saying he "wasn't elite" last offseason, but could win with him. Thinks Kwesi needs to do "less talking and more doing" or this team is going to be at the bottom of the division.

Not much we didn't already know, but the rest of the league is definately watching what happens with the Vikings this offseason 

I think how everyone views Cousins is different now than it was last year. In year two of the offense, Kirk was spectacular. He's also recovering from a serious injury. Those two things will weigh heaviest in the decision. 

I can see Kirwans numbers for Kirk, but I think that's more likely to come from another team. I don't think the Vikings will guarantee 3 years at any price. But I could be wrong. 

I posted this on another board but thought I'd copy it here for your enlightenment and edification  =) B).  Or you can just ignore my ramblings.

Regarding teams where Kirk might land, the most likely destination is:

Atlanta - I'm skeptical of the Chicago/Atlanta trade rumors and that they are dumb enough to think they will go anywhere with Justin Fields, a RB disguised as a QB, but anything is possible. Arthur Blank is like 140 years old, I would think with the pretty decent roster that he already has that just needs a competent qb to compete, that Kirk would be an attractive option for a man who'd like to see his team do something more than finish in the cellar before they start shoveling dirt on his coffin.

Beyond that it's hard to see what the market for Kirk is. Teams I've heard mentioned are:

Denver - their cap will be a mess with the expected release of Wilson so I can't see how they could afford it, but Peyton would love Kirk I think and he does seem to be George Paton's boss now.
Las Vegas - they have Adams at wideout and play in a dome, both of which would appeal to Kirk. But Las Vegas probably doesn't appeal to the Kirko family and neither does Mark Davis. Also it's rookie HC Antonio Pierce up against Peyton, Reid, and Harbaugh in the division. Good luck with that.
Pittsburgh - I think it would make sense for a team that hasn't had high level qb play since around 2018 Ben Roethlisberger. But rumor is they are going after Wilson or maybe sticking with Pickett/Rudolph. Yikes. I guess Wilson's debilitated game appeals to Tomlin more than Kirk's stats generator game.
Tampa - a longshot if Mayfield leaves, kind of a musical chairs situation. Seems unlikely.
Washington, New England - neither of these make sense imo. They are going draft qb's and sign bridge guys or just run with the vets they already have while the kids learn.

Oh just for fun I gotta add:
San Francisco - just because of the rumors that never die about Kyle Shanahan's unrequited love of Kirko.   Albert Breer reported credibly that Shanahan absolutely LOVES Brock Purdy.   Purdy's cap hits for 2024/25 are 1 million each year.   Purdy took the team to the NFCC as rookie and to the SB in his 2nd year.  12 year vet Kirk Cousins has taken his teams to 3 playoffs and won a wildcard round game once when the team won the toss in overtime.  Case CLOSED, lol.

Bottom line: based on what I've heard this week the market for Kirk looks a bit thin.  Probably a good chance he comes crawling back to Minnesota and Kwesi gets to have his way with him.  I need a visual for that to really drive the point home and make everyone cringe, but the AI porn generator is offline at the moment.  :p

Agree with everything. Even I'd take Purdy over Cousins given their ages and salaries. 

Regarding Atlanta, every team in the NFL is setting up contingencies right now. Vikings are planting seeds in the top 10 for a QB and they're also putting in a lot of work on the DLs in case they're unable to move up. 

Atlanta is likely going to be a player for Kirk, but I'm sure they also want to know what the Bears want for Fields in case Kirk wants a billion dollars, or he simply goes back to his fire pit in Rosemount. I'd even bet they have seeds planted in the top 5 for a QB in case neither of those options workout. People overhear these conversations at the combine and report "Atlanta wants Kirk" or "Atlanta wants Fields" or "Atlanta willing to trade up for QB" when all of the above are likely true to one degree or another. 

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"supafreak84" said: Listening to Pat Kirwin on NFL Radio today and they were talking about Cousins and his contract. He thinks Kirk will be in the neighborhood of 50 million per season with most or all of it being guaranteed on a 3 year deal. Thinks Vikings are out of reach for one of the elite quarterbacks in the draft and "almost have to" give Cousins what he wants. Talked about Kwesi saying he "wasn't elite" last offseason, but could win with him. Thinks Kwesi needs to do "less talking and more doing" or this team is going to be at the bottom of the division.

Not much we didn't already know, but the rest of the league is definately watching what happens with the Vikings this offseason 

I think how everyone views Cousins is different now than it was last year. In year two of the offense, Kirk was spectacular. He's also recovering from a serious injury. Those two things will weigh heaviest in the decision. 

I can see Kirwans numbers for Kirk, but I think that's more likely to come from another team. I don't think the Vikings will guarantee 3 years at any price. But I could be wrong. 

3 years is stupid....and a mistake IMO. I love me some Kirko Chainz, but not for 3 guaranteed years at ANY price.