The Cap

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"Skodin" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: The Vikings are in a MUCH better cap position this off-season and moving forward. The one gimme is bonus restructuring Hockenson. His contract was written in a way where it would make less sense not to. Gets you to about $32M in space (this includes all of Kirk, Hunter and Davenport's dead money). We'll see what happens with Harrison Smith. He won't be back at his $19M cap number. Question is whether he takes a pay-cut or ends up released. Puts the cap number between $37 - 43M. Doubt they touch Murphy's deal unless they straight up release him (don't think they will). 

With the $37-43 (we'll call it $40M) they have really 2 paths. 

1. Resign Kirk, Danielle (or comparable defensive player) and 1-2 role players 
2. Go the rookie QB route. If they go this way they honestly have enough money to do whatever they like

Door #2 please.  Rookie QB, extend Danielle and add 3 trench pieces (2 by raiding the Dolphins):

• Christian Wilkins DT, leading run DL with strong pass rushing capabilities and a history with Flores (Backup options: DJ Reader, Javon Kinlaw)
• Conner Williams C, major upgrade over Bradberry (Backup options: Cushenberry)
• Josh Uche DE, pass rusher (Backup: Campbell, Van Ginkle)

I would also give Davenport (reduced one year deal), Powell, and Risner (3yr/$18million). Upgraded IOL, significantly upgraded front 7 (Uche+Wilkins+Phillips with Hunter-Pace-???-Davenport) that can get pressure without constant blitzing.  

A rookie QB with allegedly the right staff and a strong roster (best WR and TE grouping in the league?) and a borderline top 10 defense can get you to the wild card round, potentially beyond.

Davenport isn't coming back. The team wanted him to ramp up his rehabilitation in order to get back on the field toward the end of the season. He declined & said that he wanted to focus on free agency.

 Is that from a reliable source?

That said, there is no way I would re-sign Davenport. I could see the allure at the time, but he is a big fail as a Viking. 

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"Skodin" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: The Vikings are in a MUCH better cap position this off-season and moving forward. The one gimme is bonus restructuring Hockenson. His contract was written in a way where it would make less sense not to. Gets you to about $32M in space (this includes all of Kirk, Hunter and Davenport's dead money). We'll see what happens with Harrison Smith. He won't be back at his $19M cap number. Question is whether he takes a pay-cut or ends up released. Puts the cap number between $37 - 43M. Doubt they touch Murphy's deal unless they straight up release him (don't think they will). 

With the $37-43 (we'll call it $40M) they have really 2 paths. 

1. Resign Kirk, Danielle (or comparable defensive player) and 1-2 role players 
2. Go the rookie QB route. If they go this way they honestly have enough money to do whatever they like

Door #2 please.  Rookie QB, extend Danielle and add 3 trench pieces (2 by raiding the Dolphins):

• Christian Wilkins DT, leading run DL with strong pass rushing capabilities and a history with Flores (Backup options: DJ Reader, Javon Kinlaw)
• Conner Williams C, major upgrade over Bradberry (Backup options: Cushenberry)
• Josh Uche DE, pass rusher (Backup: Campbell, Van Ginkle)

I would also give Davenport (reduced one year deal), Powell, and Risner (3yr/$18million). Upgraded IOL, significantly upgraded front 7 (Uche+Wilkins+Phillips with Hunter-Pace-???-Davenport) that can get pressure without constant blitzing.  

A rookie QB with allegedly the right staff and a strong roster (best WR and TE grouping in the league?) and a borderline top 10 defense can get you to the wild card round, potentially beyond.

Davenport isn't coming back. The team wanted him to ramp up his rehabilitation in order to get back on the field toward the end of the season. He declined & said that he wanted to focus on free agency.

 Is that from a reliable source?

That said, there is no way I would re-sign Davenport. I could see the allure at the time, but he is a big fail as a Viking. 

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"Skodin" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: The Vikings are in a MUCH better cap position this off-season and moving forward. The one gimme is bonus restructuring Hockenson. His contract was written in a way where it would make less sense not to. Gets you to about $32M in space (this includes all of Kirk, Hunter and Davenport's dead money). We'll see what happens with Harrison Smith. He won't be back at his $19M cap number. Question is whether he takes a pay-cut or ends up released. Puts the cap number between $37 - 43M. Doubt they touch Murphy's deal unless they straight up release him (don't think they will). 

With the $37-43 (we'll call it $40M) they have really 2 paths. 

1. Resign Kirk, Danielle (or comparable defensive player) and 1-2 role players 
2. Go the rookie QB route. If they go this way they honestly have enough money to do whatever they like

Door #2 please.  Rookie QB, extend Danielle and add 3 trench pieces (2 by raiding the Dolphins):

• Christian Wilkins DT, leading run DL with strong pass rushing capabilities and a history with Flores (Backup options: DJ Reader, Javon Kinlaw)
• Conner Williams C, major upgrade over Bradberry (Backup options: Cushenberry)
• Josh Uche DE, pass rusher (Backup: Campbell, Van Ginkle)

I would also give Davenport (reduced one year deal), Powell, and Risner (3yr/$18million). Upgraded IOL, significantly upgraded front 7 (Uche+Wilkins+Phillips with Hunter-Pace-???-Davenport) that can get pressure without constant blitzing.  

A rookie QB with allegedly the right staff and a strong roster (best WR and TE grouping in the league?) and a borderline top 10 defense can get you to the wild card round, potentially beyond.

Unless you draft the next CJ Stroud, you're not making the playoffs with a rookie QB.  Williams, Daniels, Maye should all be able to start week 1 and might have the goods to get it done, but there's absolutely no way any of the second tier guys should start unless in case of emergency.  Let alone counting on any of them to get us to the "wild card or beyond".

15 times,  so not unheard of. Stroud this year, but last year was Brock Purdy,  if you build a quality team,  you don't need a veteran pro bowler to get to the playoffs.  Here's a few more examples.

Team	Year	Record	Rating
Russell Wilson	Seahawks	2012	1-1	102.4
Robert Griffin III	Redskins	2012	0-1	77.5
Andrew Luck	Colts	2012	0-1	59.8
Andy Dalton	Bengals	2011	0-1	51.4
Mark Sanchez	Jets	2009	2-1	92.7
Joe Flacco	Ravens	2008	2-1	50.8
Matt Ryan	Falcons	2008	0-1	72.8
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	2004	1-1	61.3
Jim Everett	Rams	1986	0-1	54.2
Dieter Brock	Rams	1985	1-1	24.0
Bernie Kosar	Browns	1985	0-1	56.0
Dan Marino	Dolphins	1983	0-1	77.6

15 QBs out of every QB drafted in the last 40 years?  Unheard of no. Extremely unlikely…yes. 

@"Skodin" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: The Vikings are in a MUCH better cap position this off-season and moving forward. The one gimme is bonus restructuring Hockenson. His contract was written in a way where it would make less sense not to. Gets you to about $32M in space (this includes all of Kirk, Hunter and Davenport's dead money). We'll see what happens with Harrison Smith. He won't be back at his $19M cap number. Question is whether he takes a pay-cut or ends up released. Puts the cap number between $37 - 43M. Doubt they touch Murphy's deal unless they straight up release him (don't think they will). 

With the $37-43 (we'll call it $40M) they have really 2 paths. 

1. Resign Kirk, Danielle (or comparable defensive player) and 1-2 role players 
2. Go the rookie QB route. If they go this way they honestly have enough money to do whatever they like

Door #2 please.  Rookie QB, extend Danielle and add 3 trench pieces (2 by raiding the Dolphins):

• Christian Wilkins DT, leading run DL with strong pass rushing capabilities and a history with Flores (Backup options: DJ Reader, Javon Kinlaw)
• Conner Williams C, major upgrade over Bradberry (Backup options: Cushenberry)
• Josh Uche DE, pass rusher (Backup: Campbell, Van Ginkle)

I would also give Davenport (reduced one year deal), Powell, and Risner (3yr/$18million). Upgraded IOL, significantly upgraded front 7 (Uche+Wilkins+Phillips with Hunter-Pace-???-Davenport) that can get pressure without constant blitzing.  

A rookie QB with allegedly the right staff and a strong roster (best WR and TE grouping in the league?) and a borderline top 10 defense can get you to the wild card round, potentially beyond.

Sounds like JJ wants to be the highest paid non-QB in the league, which will put him around $38M/year.
Can't say I blame him, he's worth it. But man. I know the cap is malleable but giving him that much almost necessitates a QB on a rookie deal, doesn't it? Even if JJ's cap hit this season is low after an extension (fingers crossed), Kirk's dead money of almost $30M would still be on the books if we don't bring him back. So that wipes out almost any savings we'd gain in 2024. Or we re-sign Kirk for a couple years and spread out his money, which also wipes out any possibly savings from extending JJ. Not saying it's either/or because I'm sure they could find a way, but all this money we have might dry up fast if the plan is to run it back with JJ and Kirk.

@"pattersaur" said:

Sounds like JJ wants to be the highest paid non-QB in the league, which will put him around $38M/year. Can't say I blame him, he's worth it. But man. I know the cap is malleable but giving him that much almost necessitates a QB on a rookie deal, doesn't it? Even if JJ's cap hit this season is low after an extension (fingers crossed), Kirk's dead money of almost $30M would still be on the books if we don't bring him back. So that wipes out almost any savings we'd gain in 2024. Or we re-sign Kirk for a couple years and spread out his money, which also wipes out any possibly savings from extending JJ. Not saying it's either/or because I'm sure they could find a way, but all this money we have might dry up fast if the plan is to run it back with JJ and Kirk.

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"Skodin" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: The Vikings are in a MUCH better cap position this off-season and moving forward. The one gimme is bonus restructuring Hockenson. His contract was written in a way where it would make less sense not to. Gets you to about $32M in space (this includes all of Kirk, Hunter and Davenport's dead money). We'll see what happens with Harrison Smith. He won't be back at his $19M cap number. Question is whether he takes a pay-cut or ends up released. Puts the cap number between $37 - 43M. Doubt they touch Murphy's deal unless they straight up release him (don't think they will). 

With the $37-43 (we'll call it $40M) they have really 2 paths. 

1. Resign Kirk, Danielle (or comparable defensive player) and 1-2 role players 
2. Go the rookie QB route. If they go this way they honestly have enough money to do whatever they like

Door #2 please.  Rookie QB, extend Danielle and add 3 trench pieces (2 by raiding the Dolphins):

• Christian Wilkins DT, leading run DL with strong pass rushing capabilities and a history with Flores (Backup options: DJ Reader, Javon Kinlaw)
• Conner Williams C, major upgrade over Bradberry (Backup options: Cushenberry)
• Josh Uche DE, pass rusher (Backup: Campbell, Van Ginkle)

I would also give Davenport (reduced one year deal), Powell, and Risner (3yr/$18million). Upgraded IOL, significantly upgraded front 7 (Uche+Wilkins+Phillips with Hunter-Pace-???-Davenport) that can get pressure without constant blitzing.  

A rookie QB with allegedly the right staff and a strong roster (best WR and TE grouping in the league?) and a borderline top 10 defense can get you to the wild card round, potentially beyond.

so…. are we guaranteed to get all these guys and a stud rookie QB if Kirk walks. You make it seem like a forgone conclusion  that all these top free agents are going to sign reasonable deals to come play for a team that’s likely going nowhere without a decent QB. 

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"CFIAvike" said:

@"Skodin" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: The Vikings are in a MUCH better cap position this off-season and moving forward. The one gimme is bonus restructuring Hockenson. His contract was written in a way where it would make less sense not to. Gets you to about $32M in space (this includes all of Kirk, Hunter and Davenport's dead money). We'll see what happens with Harrison Smith. He won't be back at his $19M cap number. Question is whether he takes a pay-cut or ends up released. Puts the cap number between $37 - 43M. Doubt they touch Murphy's deal unless they straight up release him (don't think they will). 

With the $37-43 (we'll call it $40M) they have really 2 paths. 

1. Resign Kirk, Danielle (or comparable defensive player) and 1-2 role players 
2. Go the rookie QB route. If they go this way they honestly have enough money to do whatever they like

Door #2 please.  Rookie QB, extend Danielle and add 3 trench pieces (2 by raiding the Dolphins):

• Christian Wilkins DT, leading run DL with strong pass rushing capabilities and a history with Flores (Backup options: DJ Reader, Javon Kinlaw)
• Conner Williams C, major upgrade over Bradberry (Backup options: Cushenberry)
• Josh Uche DE, pass rusher (Backup: Campbell, Van Ginkle)

I would also give Davenport (reduced one year deal), Powell, and Risner (3yr/$18million). Upgraded IOL, significantly upgraded front 7 (Uche+Wilkins+Phillips with Hunter-Pace-???-Davenport) that can get pressure without constant blitzing.  

A rookie QB with allegedly the right staff and a strong roster (best WR and TE grouping in the league?) and a borderline top 10 defense can get you to the wild card round, potentially beyond.

Unless you draft the next CJ Stroud, you're not making the playoffs with a rookie QB.  Williams, Daniels, Maye should all be able to start week 1 and might have the goods to get it done, but there's absolutely no way any of the second tier guys should start unless in case of emergency.  Let alone counting on any of them to get us to the "wild card or beyond".

15 times,  so not unheard of. Stroud this year, but last year was Brock Purdy,  if you build a quality team,  you don't need a veteran pro bowler to get to the playoffs.  Here's a few more examples.

Team	Year	Record	Rating
Russell Wilson	Seahawks	2012	1-1	102.4
Robert Griffin III	Redskins	2012	0-1	77.5
Andrew Luck	Colts	2012	0-1	59.8
Andy Dalton	Bengals	2011	0-1	51.4
Mark Sanchez	Jets	2009	2-1	92.7
Joe Flacco	Ravens	2008	2-1	50.8
Matt Ryan	Falcons	2008	0-1	72.8
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	2004	1-1	61.3
Jim Everett	Rams	1986	0-1	54.2
Dieter Brock	Rams	1985	1-1	24.0
Bernie Kosar	Browns	1985	0-1	56.0
Dan Marino	Dolphins	1983	0-1	77.6

15 QBs out of every QB drafted in the last 40 years?  Unheard of no. Extremely unlikely…yes. 

Really depends on the rookie,  but also the team around them,  typically quality teams aren't looking to start a rookie QB because they typically aren't drafting high enough to get a decent prospect that doesn't need seasoning.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

Sounds like JJ wants to be the highest paid non-QB in the league, which will put him around $38M/year. Can't say I blame him, he's worth it. But man. I know the cap is malleable but giving him that much almost necessitates a QB on a rookie deal, doesn't it? Even if JJ's cap hit this season is low after an extension (fingers crossed), Kirk's dead money of almost $30M would still be on the books if we don't bring him back. So that wipes out almost any savings we'd gain in 2024. Or we re-sign Kirk for a couple years and spread out his money, which also wipes out any possibly savings from extending JJ. Not saying it's either/or because I'm sure they could find a way, but all this money we have might dry up fast if the plan is to run it back with JJ and Kirk.

You'd write Jefferson's contract so that it doesn't accelerate until Kirk is gone. Tyreek Hill's contract is probably the closest we're going to come to a comp. His AAV was $30M. His cap hit the 1st year was $6M, the 2nd year was $12M, the 3rd year is $31M. That's the year you'd want to be free of Cousins' money. 

^

@"pattersaur" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

Sounds like JJ wants to be the highest paid non-QB in the league, which will put him around $38M/year. Can't say I blame him, he's worth it. But man. I know the cap is malleable but giving him that much almost necessitates a QB on a rookie deal, doesn't it? Even if JJ's cap hit this season is low after an extension (fingers crossed), Kirk's dead money of almost $30M would still be on the books if we don't bring him back. So that wipes out almost any savings we'd gain in 2024. Or we re-sign Kirk for a couple years and spread out his money, which also wipes out any possibly savings from extending JJ. Not saying it's either/or because I'm sure they could find a way, but all this money we have might dry up fast if the plan is to run it back with JJ and Kirk.

You'd write Jefferson's contract so that it doesn't accelerate until Kirk is gone. Tyreek Hill's contract is probably the closest we're going to come to a comp. His AAV was $30M. His cap hit the 1st year was $6M, the 2nd year was $12M, the 3rd year is $31M. That's the year you'd want to be free of Cousins' money. 

Agreed... But is that even possible? Considering Kirk already has almost $30M in dead money, in what world are we going to be free and clear of his contract 3 years from now if we extend him?

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

Sounds like JJ wants to be the highest paid non-QB in the league, which will put him around $38M/year. Can't say I blame him, he's worth it. But man. I know the cap is malleable but giving him that much almost necessitates a QB on a rookie deal, doesn't it? Even if JJ's cap hit this season is low after an extension (fingers crossed), Kirk's dead money of almost $30M would still be on the books if we don't bring him back. So that wipes out almost any savings we'd gain in 2024. Or we re-sign Kirk for a couple years and spread out his money, which also wipes out any possibly savings from extending JJ. Not saying it's either/or because I'm sure they could find a way, but all this money we have might dry up fast if the plan is to run it back with JJ and Kirk.

You'd write Jefferson's contract so that it doesn't accelerate until Kirk is gone. Tyreek Hill's contract is probably the closest we're going to come to a comp. His AAV was $30M. His cap hit the 1st year was $6M, the 2nd year was $12M, the 3rd year is $31M. That's the year you'd want to be free of Cousins' money. 

Agreed... But is that even possible? Considering Kirk already has almost $30M in dead money, in what world are we going to be free and clear of his contract 3 years from now if we extend him?

We may not be completely free of it, but we'd probably be free of most of it. Personally, I'd stack a little onto 2024. We have between $30 and $40M in space. I'd stack even more onto 2025, when the Vikings are estimated to have between $120 and $150M in cap space (obviously this doesn't include contracts signed between now and then). Whatever dead is left over in 2026 will be mitigated by the fact that our QB is on a rookie contract. 

@"pattersaur" said:

Sounds like JJ wants to be the highest paid non-QB in the league, which will put him around $38M/year. Can't say I blame him, he's worth it. But man. I know the cap is malleable but giving him that much almost necessitates a QB on a rookie deal, doesn't it? Even if JJ's cap hit this season is low after an extension (fingers crossed), Kirk's dead money of almost $30M would still be on the books if we don't bring him back. So that wipes out almost any savings we'd gain in 2024. Or we re-sign Kirk for a couple years and spread out his money, which also wipes out any possibly savings from extending JJ. Not saying it's either/or because I'm sure they could find a way, but all this money we have might dry up fast if the plan is to run it back with JJ and Kirk.

I'm sure many QBs in the draft would want to play for us with the weapons we have.

@"medaille" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

Sounds like JJ wants to be the highest paid non-QB in the league, which will put him around $38M/year. Can't say I blame him, he's worth it. But man. I know the cap is malleable but giving him that much almost necessitates a QB on a rookie deal, doesn't it? Even if JJ's cap hit this season is low after an extension (fingers crossed), Kirk's dead money of almost $30M would still be on the books if we don't bring him back. So that wipes out almost any savings we'd gain in 2024. Or we re-sign Kirk for a couple years and spread out his money, which also wipes out any possibly savings from extending JJ. Not saying it's either/or because I'm sure they could find a way, but all this money we have might dry up fast if the plan is to run it back with JJ and Kirk.

Maybe I'm just living in the past, but I struggle with seeing how any non-QB could be worth $38M a year.  I think if JJ is demanding $38M a year, I'd rather just franchise him and/or trade him for picks and then bring in 2 of the top 5 FA WRs.  Obviously, he's great, but I'm not sure $38M is worth it for even the best that has ever been.