Time running out on Trey Lance?

@"kmillard" said:

Dorian Thompson-Robinson has looked very good in two straight games for the browns. 5th round pick.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

I have nothing against Brock Purdy, seems like a nice kid and such, but....FU to the 49ers for getting lucky with him and not paying the price for trading the farm to get Lance and setting back the franchise years. 

We can only hope that Purdy was a flash in the pan. If a roster that strong can snag its QBOTF with a nearly worthless 7th round pick, you can only roll your eyes.

But for those who think they were smarter than everyone else, keep in mind they had three 6th rounders, none of which they used on Purdy, so he was clearly not a must-have target for them. 

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Zanary" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

THIS.

I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts.  With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.

2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)

Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.

To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust. 

The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.

Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.

Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine ).

@"medaille" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Zanary" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Knucklehead" said:

The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.

Thats my main fear of drafting a QB.  We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent. 

THIS.

I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts.  With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.

2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)

Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.

To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust. 

The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.

Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.

Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine ).

I think people are only looking at the odds of a player becoming
that elite franchise guy everyone wants. 
I think that people totally miss the possibility of getting that
mid-tier starting caliber guy but for a fraction of the price as your
journeyman mid-tier starting caliber guy. 
I think there’s room for a strategy, where you just don’t pay that
mid-tier journeyman QB price and instead just keep drafting young guys and hitting
at a high enough rate that your short term isn’t fucked while you try and get
that elite guy and then you get that $30-$40M extra every year to spend.  That said, I think Cousins is good enough
that he makes that decision much harder and the math is a little fuzzier on
whether you would rather have Cousins or 2 extra stud FA linemen and a rookie
contract guy.

@"purplefaithful" said: Best thing for Lance at this point would be to come back home, get out of the media spotlight, spend a year working with KC/KOC/Staff and get re-grounded. 

I believe Lance will fade in to obscurity.

@"minny65" said: For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game.  4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance.  Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers.  Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run.  Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.  

Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players.  Impressive 4th round pick.  Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL.  Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.  

Real talk on NFL Radio today wondering if Lance might be cut. If that were to happen, I can't see the 49ers going into the season with Purdy coming off injury, and Sam Darnold. That would have to make a move and what that might be is anybodys guess.. but they need to win now. I know it won't happen, but Cousins really would be the ideal QB for them and their situation 

@"JR44" said:

@"kmillard" said:

Dorian Thompson-Robinson has looked very good in two straight games for the browns. 5th round pick.

There was some pre-draft rumors that we were high on him, was hoping we were going to take a shot on him after we passed on others, Browns took him one spot before us in the 5th, although we could have taken him 6 spots ahead of them at end of the 4th.  

@"1VikesFan" said: I believe Lance will fade in to obscurity.

@"StickyBun" said:

@"1VikesFan" said: I believe Lance will fade in to obscurity.

This. Why would we want him in Minnesota? He sucks. Is a change of scenery going to make him more accurate? Able to read coverages? 

@"Knucklehead" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"1VikesFan" said: I believe Lance will fade in to obscurity.

This. Why would we want him in Minnesota? He sucks. Is a change of scenery going to make him more accurate? Able to read coverages? 

He may be able to read coverages with more snaps, but the biggest red flag for me is that Shanahan is considered a QB guru & Lance is still looking this bad.

Put Lance on the practice squad instead of Rosen...J/K

@"StickyBun" said:

@"1VikesFan" said: I believe Lance will fade in to obscurity.

This. Why would we want him in Minnesota? He sucks. Is a change of scenery going to make him more accurate? Able to read coverages? 

Many good, first-round QBs on really bad teams (best QB's go to the worst teams in the draft for a reason, right?) fail.  Sometimes it's just a bad team, sometimes its a team with a bad owner/GM/Coach culture.

The biggest example that comes to mind is Joey Harrington to Detroit.  2002 third pick overall out of Oregon.
You can probably line up more...David Carr to Houston, more examples anyone?

@"Montana Tom" said: Many good, first-round QBs on really bad teams (best QB's go to the worst teams in the draft for a reason, right?) fail.  Sometimes it's just a bad team, sometimes its a team with a bad owner/GM/Coach culture.

The biggest example that comes to mind is Joey Harrington to Detroit.  2002 third pick overall out of Oregon.
You can probably line up more...David Carr to Houston, more examples anyone?

From that same draft I would say Wilson ended up in the worst situation in NY.  Saleh was just starting a nice rebuild on D but Wilson was not ready for the bright lights.  Now he has a great situation sitting behind Rodgers.  I think Wilson still has a chance to be a good starting QB.  Obviously, Lawrence showed in year 2 that he was worth the #1 pick.  Fields, who I thought was a Top 10 pick has shown flashes but this is year 3 and he needs to improve his passing game.  If he does, then the Bears have a franchise QB..if.  Mac Jones is an average starting QB at best but probably in the mid 20's when you say who would you want to be your QB.  

@"minny65" said: For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game.  4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance.  Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers.  Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run.  Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.  

Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players.  Impressive 4th round pick.  Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL.  Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.  

Watched O'Connell again he played like a first rounder again - 2 nice TD throws.  I think he has a chance to be a better Mac Jones (both statues) and he is my non-viking preseason rookie of the year candidate:)

@"minny65" said:

@"minny65" said: For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game.  4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance.  Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers.  Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run.  Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.  

Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players.  Impressive 4th round pick.  Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL.  Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.  

Lance had a better game yesterday, but it was against 3rd quarter players as opposed to first last week so kinda grain of salt :)

Watched O'Connell again he played like a first rounder again - 2 nice TD throws.  I think he has a chance to be a better Mac Jones (both statues) and he is my non-viking preseason rookie of the year candidate:)

@"StickyBun" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"minny65" said: For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game.  4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance.  Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers.  Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run.  Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.  

Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players.  Impressive 4th round pick.  Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL.  Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.  

Lance had a better game yesterday, but it was against 3rd quarter players as opposed to first last week so kinda grain of salt :)

Watched O'Connell again he played like a first rounder again - 2 nice TD throws.  I think he has a chance to be a better Mac Jones (both statues) and he is my non-viking preseason rookie of the year candidate:)

Saw that, and all the 24 year old internet podcaster football 'expert's are back on the bandwagon, lmao. What ever way the wind is blowing. Lance's trade value is now 0%.....they either hang on to him for some reason or cut him loose. I can't imagine they want him backing up Purdy. 

@"minny65" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"minny65" said: For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game.  4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance.  Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers.  Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run.  Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.  

Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players.  Impressive 4th round pick.  Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL.  Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.  

Lance had a better game yesterday, but it was against 3rd quarter players as opposed to first last week so kinda grain of salt :)

Watched O'Connell again he played like a first rounder again - 2 nice TD throws.  I think he has a chance to be a better Mac Jones (both statues) and he is my non-viking preseason rookie of the year candidate:)

Saw that, and all the 24 year old internet podcaster football 'expert's are back on the bandwagon, lmao. What ever way the wind is blowing. Lance's trade value is now 0%.....they either hang on to him for some reason or cut him loose. I can't imagine they want him backing up Purdy. 

I would be shocked if they cut him loose it would reflect on probably the worst draft trade-up ever and no will want to own up to it:)