Top tier QBs in Draft: 4 guys

I think Tanner McKee is a Davis Mills, Kyle Trask-level pick. Should be a good backup with an outside shot at starting.  Hendon Hooker is day three. His game is just too far away from the NFL. 

If the Vikings want a QB this year, Richardson, who needs time, actually makes sense for a team who already has a QB. Even though it looks like he might be the 4th QB off the board, the Vikings would still likely have to trade up to get him. 

I think Richardson, Hooker, McKee etc will all be available at the Vikings first pick (and later).

Mock drafters always overrate these guys...  especially in January.  Anyone remember the Malik Willis talk of going top 5?  Richardson is a lot like him... 

I think Levis, Stroud, and Young are the only guaranteed first rounders.

@"Wetlander" said: I think Richardson, Hooker, McKee etc will all be available at the Vikings first pick (and later).

Mock drafters always overrate these guys...  especially in January.  Anyone remember the Malik Willis talk of going top 5?  Richardson is a lot like him... 

I think Levis, Stroud, and Young are the only guaranteed first rounders.

Also, Liberty's offense was a big reason why Willis fell (if NFL teams were ever really as high on him as draft observers thought). Like Willis, Richardson is raw, but I don't think Florida to the NFL is quite the same stretch. 

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson's success pushes Richardson up the draft board. I suspect one of the QB-needy teams takes him early.

So there's a substantial dropoff from those top 4. That's what I thought.

Richardson is not good at throwing the ball. He's just a runner.

I think McKee has a shot at being the Fifth QB taken in the first round. Stanford has been horrible for back to back seasons so if he wows people at his individual workouts, he will get pushed up the draft boards. He's Cousins with better mobility. 

@"StickyBun" said: It certainly appears right now there are 4 guys in the top tier of the upcoming NFL Draft.....4 first round QBs. Probably top 15. Say what you want about Richardson being maybe a 1a to the other dude's 1, but you know how this goes with GMs: they'll reach. Not sure if Minnesota is interested in drafting a QB or not, but they really don't have the capital to move up for one if so. So who's number 5? Certainly not a 1st round pick, but would that player be a #2? Or a 3rd rounder? The Kellen Mond pick was a complete joke in retrospect and the Vikings could have had Davis Mills. 

I've seen Hendon Hooker. I've seen Tanner McGee. Those 2 seem to be consistently the next tier. What does everyone think of either of those?

You'll see the top 3 QBs ranked as Young, Levis, Stroud interchangeably with Richardson a close 4th. Offensive scheme will likely dictate who likes which player. Richardson has no middle ground whatsoever. The Lamar comp isn't perfect, his upside is actually more of Josh Allen. But the floor is a complete flameout. 

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said: It certainly appears right now there are 4 guys in the top tier of the upcoming NFL Draft.....4 first round QBs. Probably top 15. Say what you want about Richardson being maybe a 1a to the other dude's 1, but you know how this goes with GMs: they'll reach. Not sure if Minnesota is interested in drafting a QB or not, but they really don't have the capital to move up for one if so. So who's number 5? Certainly not a 1st round pick, but would that player be a #2? Or a 3rd rounder? The Kellen Mond pick was a complete joke in retrospect and the Vikings could have had Davis Mills. 

I've seen Hendon Hooker. I've seen Tanner McGee. Those 2 seem to be consistently the next tier. What does everyone think of either of those?

Hooker has a chance, the biggest question is how he'll adapt to an NFL offense. His ACL should be ready by training camp and it honestly is a natural way to redshirt him for a season. I actually tend to think the Vikings will take a long look at him. McKee I would pass on. Good pocket passer but honestly though when healthy Davis Mills was better in the same offense. Kind of changes you perception on his upside. 

You'll see the top 3 QBs ranked as Young, Levis, Stroud interchangeably with Richardson a close 4th. Offensive scheme will likely dictate who likes which player. Richardson has no middle ground whatsoever. The Lamar comp isn't perfect, his upside is actually more of Josh Allen. But the floor is a complete flameout. 

Richardson has an arm, but his inaccuracy as a passer is concerning. On 327 attempts this last season, he was only a 53% passer with 17 TD's and 9 INT's. His greatest asset at this point is as an athlete and runner. Where on the flipside, Hooker was an almost 70% passer on 329 attempts with 27 TD's and 2 INT's...in the SEC. Richardson has the higher upside, but as a player right now Hooker is far superior product. I agree with Geoff in that he will be a consideration for the Vikings in the first round. 

And for what it's worth, I have Hookers teammate Jalin Hyatt as my top rated WR in this draft and the other WR opposite him, Cedric Tillman, will also be in that first round conversation. Still though what Hooker was able to do prior to his injury was really, really impressive 

QB's have to display mid 60's% completion rate, with a continuous improvement in TD to interception ratio throughout their college career. Any QB with a completion rate below 63% in their senior yr. I take off my list.

I have no idea how Richardson with a 53% completion rate is seen as having an upside. That's mid level high school QB stats. Hooker is intriguing. If I'm taking a flyer on a guy in the later rounds, I'm throwing in on Max Duggan. The kid plays with a lot of heart, has shown to have a pretty good arm, an impressive 32 to 8 TD to int. ratio, is mobile, and tough as nails.

@"mgobluevikes" said: QB's have to display mid 60's% completion rate, with a continuous improvement in TD to interception ratio throughout their college career. Any QB with a completion rate below 63% in their senior yr. I take off my list.

Hold my beer....

....then hold my beer.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/lamar-jackson-1.html

Then hold my non-alcoholic beer....

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html

....I could do this all day. Point being picking a QB in the Draft is risky and luck is a big factor. Period. Hard criteria of what you think is important to make a good QB can't be followed to the letter or you'll miss a lot of great NFL players. 

@"StickyBun" said: ....I could do this all day. Point being picking a QB in the Draft is risky and luck is a big factor. Period. Hard criteria of what you think is important to make a good QB can't be followed to the letter or you'll miss a lot of great NFL players. 

I say that last bit as a joke, but you can bet it's real. 

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said: It certainly appears right now there are 4 guys in the top tier of the upcoming NFL Draft.....4 first round QBs. Probably top 15. Say what you want about Richardson being maybe a 1a to the other dude's 1, but you know how this goes with GMs: they'll reach. Not sure if Minnesota is interested in drafting a QB or not, but they really don't have the capital to move up for one if so. So who's number 5? Certainly not a 1st round pick, but would that player be a #2? Or a 3rd rounder? The Kellen Mond pick was a complete joke in retrospect and the Vikings could have had Davis Mills. 

I've seen Hendon Hooker. I've seen Tanner McGee. Those 2 seem to be consistently the next tier. What does everyone think of either of those?

Hooker has a chance, the biggest question is how he'll adapt to an NFL offense. His ACL should be ready by training camp and it honestly is a natural way to redshirt him for a season. I actually tend to think the Vikings will take a long look at him. McKee I would pass on. Good pocket passer but honestly though when healthy Davis Mills was better in the same offense. Kind of changes you perception on his upside. 

You'll see the top 3 QBs ranked as Young, Levis, Stroud interchangeably with Richardson a close 4th. Offensive scheme will likely dictate who likes which player. Richardson has no middle ground whatsoever. The Lamar comp isn't perfect, his upside is actually more of Josh Allen. But the floor is a complete flameout. 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Hendon-Hooker-QB-VirginiaTech

He just turned 25 years old. A definite minus. I get a Geno Smith comparison.

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"StickyBun" said: It certainly appears right now there are 4 guys in the top tier of the upcoming NFL Draft.....4 first round QBs. Probably top 15. Say what you want about Richardson being maybe a 1a to the other dude's 1, but you know how this goes with GMs: they'll reach. Not sure if Minnesota is interested in drafting a QB or not, but they really don't have the capital to move up for one if so. So who's number 5? Certainly not a 1st round pick, but would that player be a #2? Or a 3rd rounder? The Kellen Mond pick was a complete joke in retrospect and the Vikings could have had Davis Mills. 

I've seen Hendon Hooker. I've seen Tanner McGee. Those 2 seem to be consistently the next tier. What does everyone think of either of those?

Hooker has a chance, the biggest question is how he'll adapt to an NFL offense. His ACL should be ready by training camp and it honestly is a natural way to redshirt him for a season. I actually tend to think the Vikings will take a long look at him. McKee I would pass on. Good pocket passer but honestly though when healthy Davis Mills was better in the same offense. Kind of changes you perception on his upside. 

You'll see the top 3 QBs ranked as Young, Levis, Stroud interchangeably with Richardson a close 4th. Offensive scheme will likely dictate who likes which player. Richardson has no middle ground whatsoever. The Lamar comp isn't perfect, his upside is actually more of Josh Allen. But the floor is a complete flameout. 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Hendon-Hooker-QB-VirginiaTech

He just turned 25 years old. A definite minus. I get a Geno Smith comparison.

Age matters, but less for a QB. It just doesn't deplete your value of the pick since a good QB will play well into their 30s vs. a RB/WB/Skill player who the tread on the tires catches up to them. 

@"StickyBun" said: ....I could do this all day. Point being picking a QB in the Draft is risky and luck is a big factor. Period. Hard criteria of what you think is important to make a good QB can't be followed to the letter or you'll miss a lot of great NFL players. 

Looking at Lamar, he's proving my point. Still at about 62% comp. rate, with a 91 passer rating. The Ravens just fired their offensive coord. and Jacksons' been banged up while operating a run first offense. He's very mediocre, and his arm doesn't scare anyone.

Josh Allen? I missed on him, but you have to play the odds.