Good article on potential Cap moves

Loved this article, really spelled out the cap situation for me. 

A lot will depend on what they do on Defense and who they bring back(Donatell) or who they bring in as the next DC. 

Agree with Luke on pretty much everything here, especially the overreaction by cap alarmists.

I'd probably lean more toward cutting Kendricks and Thielen, but I can see arguments for keeping them. But either way, there's plenty of money to be found. 

After going 13-4 and winning the NFC North but losing in the first round of the playoffs to the New York Giants, Minnesota is way over the projected salary cap. Analyst Jason Fitzgerald, using a possible cap number of $225 million, has the Vikings now at $24.55 million over the cap, which gives them the third-least amount of room among all NFL teams.
“It’s not a great spot they’re in from a cap standpoint,’’ said Fitzgerald, who runs the website OvertheCap.com. “They’re in kind of a position where they’re kind of weathering the storm and making sure things don’t get too bad (with the cap) and pretty much try to get through next season.”
But there are ways Minnesota easily can get under the cap and find some money to spend in free agency and contract extensions for wide receiver Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson. The first order of business likely will be addressing big cap numbers on veterans such as receiver Adam Thielen ($19.97 million), safety Harrison Smith ($19.13 million), running back Dalvin Cook ($14.1 million) and, to a lesser extent, linebacker Eric Kendricks ($11.43 million).

“They’re coming off a good season, so I guess they would try to run it back and try very hard to do something with guys like Thielen and Smith, but only keeping them on the roster at a much-reduced salary,” Fitzgerald said
Thielen, who turns 33 in August, has a nonguaranteed base salary on the books of $11.82 million and Smith, who turns 34 next month, has a nonguaranteed figure of $14.7 million. Fitzgerald figures the market value for both now is about $5 or $6 million, and either could be cut if they don’t agree. A Thielen release would create $6.42 million of cap room, Smith $7.38 million.
https://www.twincities.com/2023/01/21/vikings-are-24-million-over-cap-and-some-veterans-would-need-to-take-pay-cuts-to-stay/

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONSCook, who turns 28 in August, is on the books for a nonguaranteed salary of $10.4 million — high for a running back. His situation is tricky because he was still effective in 2022 while still showing some signs of decline. Cook rushed for 1,173 yards while averaging a career-low 4.3 yards per carry. Yet the Vikings don’t have a sure-fire in-house replacement for Cook because backup Alexander Mattison is an impending free agent.
“Maybe that’s another where they look to bring the numbers down, but that’s one that they’re going to look pretty hard at,” Fitzgerald said of Cook’s situation.
As for Kendricks, who will turn 31 in just over a month, Fitzgerald could see his nonguaranteed base salary of $9.15 million remaining intact in 2023, the final year of his contract. He’s not the same player he was when he made All-Pro in 2019, but is still effective.

Cook was asked last Monday about the possibility of taking a pay cut and referred questions to the Vikings’ brass. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was asked Wednesday about Minnesota’s cap issues resulting in some hard decisions needing to be made on some veteran players.
“Every team’s got those (cap) restraints. … Ultimately, we have a lot of tools at our disposal, extensions and different things like that, where you can get under the cap, and continue on,’’ said Adofo-Mensah, who was hired last January. “So, we’ll consider everything we have.”
In recent years, the Vikings have been pushing a good bit of money to future cap years, a practice most teams also have done. That’s because the coronavirus pandemic led to a significant decrease in fans in 2020 and cost teams a lot of money, meaning the cap in recent years hasn’t gone up as much as expected. It was $208.2 million in 2022.
But money from new television deals will kick in for 2024, and Fitzgerald expects the cap then could be about $256 million. He projects it could be about $283 million in 2025.
For now, Adofo-Mensah said Kirk Cousins will remain the team’s quarterback in 2023, the final year on his contract, but he was non-committal about the possibility of an extension. Cousins has the highest cap number on the team at $36.25 million, but Fitzgerald expects it could be lowered even if he isn’t signed to an extension.
One possibly could be taking Cousins’ $20 million roster bonus and turning it into a signing bonus. Cousins has two void years already on his deal, and an addition of two more could create up to $16 million of cap room by prorating money over five years.
The Vikings could convert some of their hefty base salaries to signing bonuses to spread out cap hits. That could be done with 2023 base salaries for tackle Brian O’Neill ($14.4 million) and edge rusher Za’Darius Smith ($9.45 million).
https://www.twincities.com/2023/01/21/vikings-are-24-million-over-cap-and-some-veterans-would-need-to-take-pay-cuts-to-stay/

WHAT ABOUT HUNTER?Perhaps the most up-in-the-air salary situation will involve edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who led the team with 10½ sacks. But at 28, Hunter is not quite as dominant as he was during his Pro Bowl seasons of  2018 and 2019 — before injuries sidelined him in 2020 and 2021. Hunter had money from his contract moved to what was an $18 million roster bonus for last season and is on the books next season for a nonguaranteed base salary of just $4.9 million in 2023.
“I’m sure he’s going to complain if he doesn’t have (a lucrative) extension, and that puts them in a tricky spot,” Fitzgerald said. “He signed a bad deal when he first signed and then gave every reason why he took less money, and then was unhappy with it right away because he took too little money on that first deal.”
Hunter is entering the last of a five-year, $72 million extension that kicked in for the 2019 season. Fitzgerald expects the Vikings to try to agree to a “reasonable” extension with Hunter.
https://www.twincities.com/2023/01/21/vikings-are-24-million-over-cap-and-some-veterans-would-need-to-take-pay-cuts-to-stay/

EXTENSIONSWith an eye on the cap going up significantly in future years, the Vikings will work this offseason on extensions for Jefferson and Hockenson. 
Fitzgerald expects Jefferson will command a deal for at least $30 million annually, which would begin in 2025. However, any signing bonus he might get this offseason would be prorated over five years. So, a $30 million signing bonus would equate to an additional $6 million cap hit for 2023 on Jefferson.
Fitzgerald figures Hockenson, who will make $9.33 million in the final year of his contract in 2023, could command an extension worth more than $17 million annually. Any signing bonus Hockenson might get this offseason would be prorated, but on an extension, the Vikings could lower his $9.33 million cap hit for 2023 by pushing money from his base salary to later years.
Overall, though, the fastest way for the Vikings to get their cap situation under control would be to significantly reduce the salaries of some aging veteran players. 
“There are tough decisions they have to make,” Fitzgerald said. “But one thing for Minnesota is that their general manager shouldn’t really be married to some of these players that had deals that pre-dated him.”
https://www.twincities.com/2023/01/21/vikings-are-24-million-over-cap-and-some-veterans-would-need-to-take-pay-cuts-to-stay/

I think a lot of who they keep, especially on the defensive side will depend on who their next DC is. 

Before they contemplate moves/approach players & agents they probably need to answer, are we trying to continue along the path we are or does that short-change the up & coming core of JJ, Hock, Darrisaw, and O'Neill? If the answer is "yes" I think taking a more aggressive cap cutting approach makes some sense. I don't necessarily view that as getting worse. It just might cap the 2023 season below the upside you need to win a SB. But it would open up after that. 

@"Geoff Nichols" said: Before they contemplate moves/approach players & agents they probably need to answer, are we trying to continue along the path we are or does that short-change the up & coming core of JJ, Hock, Darrisaw, and O'Neill? If the answer is "yes" I think taking a more aggressive cap cutting approach makes some sense. I don't necessarily view that as getting worse. It just might cap the 2023 season below the upside you need to win a SB. But it would open up after that. 

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: Before they contemplate moves/approach players & agents they probably need to answer, are we trying to continue along the path we are or does that short-change the up & coming core of JJ, Hock, Darrisaw, and O'Neill? If the answer is "yes" I think taking a more aggressive cap cutting approach makes some sense. I don't necessarily view that as getting worse. It just might cap the 2023 season below the upside you need to win a SB. But it would open up after that. 

whats conspicuously missing is a QBOTF...and they will need one with JJ about to re-set the WR mkt. 

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said: Before they contemplate moves/approach players & agents they probably need to answer, are we trying to continue along the path we are or does that short-change the up & coming core of JJ, Hock, Darrisaw, and O'Neill? If the answer is "yes" I think taking a more aggressive cap cutting approach makes some sense. I don't necessarily view that as getting worse. It just might cap the 2023 season below the upside you need to win a SB. But it would open up after that. 

whats conspicuously missing is a QBOTF...and they will need one with JJ about to re-set the WR mkt. 

Its a little bit of a catch-22. Does having a QB on a rookie deal help? Yes, without a doubt. But if they can get Kirk to sign a contract longer than 1-2 years they can work with his cap hits quite a bit. Keeping everyone is always possible with cash and the ability to push money into the future. So they'll have to do something with Kirk's contract again in early March. I just don't foresee a way they'll allow him to walk into FA after the 2023 season. While Kirk appears happy in MN the Viking wouldn't have any ability to tag him or retain his rights. So the market would really dictate his price. Time will tell, but what if Kirk ultimately chooses that path? Doubtful for a few reasons, but that would throw a wrench in this off-season. 

Also, we have a roster full of needs, a lot of aging players, 24 million in salary cuts to make, a long list of free agents, and 4 draft picks after trading for Raegor, Blacklock and Hockenson. Is this not screaming rebuild to anyone but the Wilfs? 

I generally agree with Luke on most things and I think he’s
one of the clearest thinkers in the group of people who commentate on the Vikings.  I think the article kind of comes down to the
semantics that Geoff points out.  Is the
cap malleable and you can always push problems further into the future and
field a reasonable team?  Absolutely.  Can the team put together a roster that can legitimately
be expected to compete for a championship? 
I’m skeptical that we’re going to have enough cap space to do that for
more than a year or two.  Ask yourself,
what part of the team are we championship caliber at?  We have people that say we need better OLine,
better WR2 and 3, better IDL, better LBs, and better secondary.  To be SB caliber, we probably need the
offense to be top 3-5 and defense top 20, or we need both to be top 10.  And if we actually do cut guys like Smith and
Kendricks, then we have a hard need to replace them with competent players.

I think some of the talent concern is overblown, however, as
I think that we will have to rely on a lot of our improvement to come from improvement
in the coaching staff.  Like if we can
get to a middle tier defense just by getting a better DC,a small amount of
talent infusion and kicking the can down the road, than a lot of options open
up for us.

@"medaille" said: I generally agree with Luke on most things and I think he’s one of the clearest thinkers in the group of people who commentate on the Vikings.  I think the article kind of comes down to the semantics that Geoff points out.  Is the cap malleable and you can always push problems further into the future and field a reasonable team?  Absolutely.  Can the team put together a roster that can legitimately be expected to compete for a championship?  I’m skeptical that we’re going to have enough cap space to do that for more than a year or two.  Ask yourself, what part of the team are we championship caliber at?  We have people that say we need better OLine, better WR2 and 3, better IDL, better LBs, and better secondary.  To be SB caliber, we probably need the offense to be top 3-5 and defense top 20, or we need both to be top 10.  And if we actually do cut guys like Smith and Kendricks, then we have a hard need to replace them with competent players.

I think some of the talent concern is overblown, however, as
I think that we will have to rely on a lot of our improvement to come from improvement
in the coaching staff.  Like if we can
get to a middle tier defense just by getting a better DC,a small amount of
talent infusion and kicking the can down the road, than a lot of options open
up for us.

The hard part is objectively saying we were 32nd this year, how could we be worse? But then decide to remove Harry/Kendricks/Za'Darius/etc. Does that allow middle of the pack? Only so much is coaching. On the offensive side of the ball I feel much better about them succeeding without someone like Thielen considering their output was still around the top-10 mark with him impacting the outcomes little to non comparatively. 

Like all roster building, its a big puzzle.