Misc. Thoughts: Bills
Hard to put that game into words.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
- Darrisaw: I watched the game "taped" -- now an archaic term -- and I must have missed his injury. What happened? With a game like this, watching it with the ability to fast forward is both good and bad. When the Bills went up 17, I almost felt resigned and fast forwarded for that reason (very tempted at the time to just pull up the final score) and then, after Cooks blast and the momentum shifted, I just had to go as quickly as I could from play to play. Of course, I was watching in LA when Fox changed from the Vikings game to the local game at some point. Thank god I had the foresight to record both on the local channel and DirectTV.
- Cousins: Who would have guessed Josh Allen would have more turnovers than Kirk Cousins in the 4th quarter? I have been a Cousins doubter for so long but it seems like KOC has found a way to get the best of Kirk. Admittedly, I was a little skeptical when it was reported that KOC looked forward with working with Cousins again after Washington but the pairing works.
- Culture Change: Culture matters. The thing that has really impressed me recently is the different team videos -- the one's on the plane and the post-game speeches. This "chain" thing is one of those things that really breeds a certain camaraderie that strengthens the bonds of the team. The first time I watched one, I was shocked to see Za'Darius right there next to Kirk whooping it up. Seemed like such an unlikely pairing. It was a eureka moment for me that something different was happening. I also have to say, I have not watched one post-game locker room speech ever until the last two weeks -- now I look forward to it. There is such joy in this team.
- Next Man Up: All year the Vikings have been very healthy and you had to wonder what would happen if depth was tested. Test passed yesterday.
- Defense: You can feel the defense gelling -- it is no longer simple pitch and catch from the opposing offense.
- PP: It feels to me that PP's (great) influence over the young CBs has increased ten-fold under this new coaching staff. -- like he is free to take him under his wing and teach team without worry that it is not the Z---- way. He is an unsung hero to me for the growth of the DBs. And of course, he is playing at a high level. It is funny, as I recall he has had an interception returned for a TD in multiple seasons in a row. Each time he intercepts it I think he is going to take it to the house -- even the OT interception (when he did the smart thing and went down).
- Dallas Next: Frankly, I am very happy the Vikes are currently underdogs to Dallas. A certain amount of disrespect should make them shake off the euphoria of the Bills victory and focusing them on disproving the doubters.
Great post, VO. Sums up a lot of my feelings as well... This team just feels different. Special. Culture is a real thing and the Vikings have one that is breeding success. Regardless of what happens this season, this is a fun team to watch and any concerns about if we made the right HC hire have been answered.
Fingers crossed we keep building this thing the right way and have a healthy, battle-tested team come the playoffs.
@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.Thank you for putting some framework around the game yesterday. I am still wordless/speechless, and my head is still spinning. Up there with Minneapolis Miracle but obviously not a playoff game.post=post nugget: ESPN has win expectancy data going back through 2007. By this model, in terms of winning the game, the fumbled exchange between Allen and Mitch Morse was the worst offensive play any team has run during that 15-year span.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
- Darrisaw: I watched the game "taped" -- now an archaic term -- and I must have missed his injury. What happened? With a game like this, watching it with the ability to fast forward is both good and bad. When the Bills went up 17, I almost felt resigned and fast forwarded for that reason (very tempted at the time to just pull up the final score) and then, after Cooks blast and the momentum shifted, I just had to go as quickly as I could from play to play. Of course, I was watching in LA when Fox changed from the Vikings game to the local game at some point. Thank god I had the foresight to record both on the local channel and DirectTV.
- Cousins: Who would have guessed Josh Allen would have more turnovers than Kirk Cousins in the 4th quarter? I have been a Cousins doubter for so long but it seems like KOC has found a way to get the best of Kirk. Admittedly, I was a little skeptical when it was reported that KOC looked forward with working with Cousins again after Washington but the pairing works.
- Culture Change: Culture matters. The thing that has really impressed me recently is the different team videos -- the one's on the plane and the post-game speeches. This "chain" thing is one of those things that really breeds a certain camaraderie that strengthens the bonds of the team. The first time I watched one, I was shocked to see Za'Darius right there next to Kirk whooping it up. Seemed like such an unlikely pairing. It was a eureka moment for me that something different was happening. I also have to say, I have not watched one post-game locker room speech ever until the last two weeks -- now I look forward to it. There is such joy in this team.
- Next Man Up: All year the Vikings have been very healthy and you had to wonder what would happen if depth was tested. Test passed yesterday.
- Defense: You can feel the defense gelling -- it is no longer simple pitch and catch from the opposing offense.
- PP: It feels to me that PP's (great) influence over the young CBs has increased ten-fold under this new coaching staff. -- like he is free to take him under his wing and teach team without worry that it is not the Z---- way. He is an unsung hero to me for the growth of the DBs. And of course, he is playing at a high level. It is funny, as I recall he has had an interception returned for a TD in multiple seasons in a row. Each time he intercepts it I think he is going to take it to the house -- even the OT interception (when he did the smart thing and went down).
- Dallas Next: Frankly, I am very happy the Vikes are currently underdogs to Dallas. A certain amount of disrespect should make them shake off the euphoria of the Bills victory and focusing them on disproving the doubters.
Yeah, I see and feel the change too. The past couple seasons under Zim if things started going bad with Kirk and the team fell behind, you could just feel it things usually were only going to get worse.
Yesterday after Kirk's 2nd pick, I started to get that feeling again, but the team didn't. Kirk had that long run and nearly scored, and he uncharacteristically played great after that last pick. Kirk made me believe and like him again! B)
KOC is more than an Xs and Os expert. He knows how to run a team and have his guys give it their all to the very end. That's so refreshing and was missing in the Zim era. The Viking culture shift is real.
I've said this before, but I just can't get over how everything is not just different this year, it's the opposite. Last year, we don't win the close games. This year, that's all we win. Last year (and this was mostly just narrative), Kirk is all stats, but no clutch. This year, he's no stats, all clutch. Who would've thought the narrative would now be, he may not put up great numbers, but he WINS.
You said it VO: culture matters. I think that has played a big part in the team believing in themselves, in each other.
Thx VO couple things really resonate for me:
All the culture talk had me feeling skeptical - but damn, how can you deny it at this point?
KC is having one of his worse statistical seasons, a couple of those throws yesterday were awful (ala Allen). But we're seeing a different Kirk - a more aggressive Kirk and look at the winning to date
Agree on the P2 impact; its more than what we've seen from other mentor db types under Zimm
I dont think people realize the impact Za'Darius is having on the field AND in the locker room. GB was lucky to have him.
May the gods keep the team healthy; We have a lot of really difficult games left including all 3 divisional road games. The story of this season hardly ends with a win @ Buffalo.
I am concerned we'll be w/out Darrisaw vs Cowboys and a team let down game vs Dallas too.
@"purplefaithful" said: Thx VO couple things really resonate for me:All the culture talk had me feeling skeptical - but damn, how can you deny it at this point?
Same. I made the point a few times this summer, blah blah blah. Blowing sunshine up the backside, great marketing and all that. I will gladly eat those words. KOC has made a difference and now that they have a few wins to back it up, the team is believing.
I said it in another thread, the little things the stars do on the field make that difference. That is a big part of it. JJ took out the safety and the LB on Dalvin's run. Dalvin made a huge block to keep Kirk clean on one of JJ's big receptions.
PP has certainly become rejuvenated this year. And that is rubbing off on the younger players wanting to study film with him.
@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.9 out of 10 seems high, considering there are 3 or 4 Kirk to JJ passes here that you really can't throw much better.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
Some of the best throws of Kirk's career against the best defense in the NFL: pic.twitter.com/HvPkFDISjm
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 14, 2022
@"MaroonBells" said:@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.9 out of 10 seems high, considering there are 3 or 4 Kirk to JJ passes here that you really can't throw much better.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
Some of the best throws of Kirk's career against the best defense in the NFL: pic.twitter.com/HvPkFDISjm
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 14, 2022
@"greediron" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.9 out of 10 seems high, considering there are 3 or 4 Kirk to JJ passes here that you really can't throw much better.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
Some of the best throws of Kirk's career against the best defense in the NFL: pic.twitter.com/HvPkFDISjm
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 14, 2022
@"MaroonBells" said:@"greediron" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.9 out of 10 seems high, considering there are 3 or 4 Kirk to JJ passes here that you really can't throw much better.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
Some of the best throws of Kirk's career against the best defense in the NFL: pic.twitter.com/HvPkFDISjm
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 14, 2022
@"MaroonBells" said:@"greediron" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.9 out of 10 seems high, considering there are 3 or 4 Kirk to JJ passes here that you really can't throw much better.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
Some of the best throws of Kirk's career against the best defense in the NFL: pic.twitter.com/HvPkFDISjm
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 14, 2022
Perhaps this helps explain NextGen's view: According to Next Gen Stats, he only had 1.48 yards of separation on his targets. The league average is 2.93. Still, this didn’t deter Cousins from throwing his way, as he targeted Jefferson 16 times.
@"VikingOracle" said: Perhaps this helps explain NextGen's view: According to Next Gen Stats, he only had 1.48 yards of separation on his targets. The league average is 2.93. Still, this didn’t deter Cousins from throwing his way, as he targeted Jefferson 16 times.Yes, but does it consider if the DB is trailing and doesn't turn his head. Does it consider the catch radius of the receiver or the height of the DB? Does it consider whether the DBs were being allowed to mug the WR? Just like PFF it doesn't take into consideration what the read was and whose job it was either.
Again, it is fun to see how fast the ball carrier was and how far the throw travelled, but I think they get lost when they consider themselves THE answer.
@"Wetlander" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"greediron" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.9 out of 10 seems high, considering there are 3 or 4 Kirk to JJ passes here that you really can't throw much better.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
Some of the best throws of Kirk's career against the best defense in the NFL: pic.twitter.com/HvPkFDISjm
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 14, 2022
@"jargomcfargo" said:@"Wetlander" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"greediron" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"VikingOracle" said: Hard to put that game into words.9 out of 10 seems high, considering there are 3 or 4 Kirk to JJ passes here that you really can't throw much better.
- Jefferson: In another thread I called him the Diggs eraser -- at this point the Zilfs will just need to open the bank vault. If you haven't read Peter King's article this morning, it is worth the read. Next Gen stats had the probability of the catch at 28.8%. But here is what I found crazy: "It wasn’t just that catch that Next Gen found unlikely. Nine of Jefferson’s 10 receptions had less than a 50 percent chance of being caught by him. No player in the seven-year history of Next Gen analyzing every catch in the NFL has made nine catches in one game with less than a 50-50 chance of being caught."
Some of the best throws of Kirk's career against the best defense in the NFL: pic.twitter.com/HvPkFDISjm
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) November 14, 2022
Great writeup VO. I remember in training camp how KOC was talking to everyone, I thought that was important. And he doesn't have such an ego that he won't take input from the players, it is really smart to do so. There is a video of him lifting Pat Pete up during the locker room speech and a video of him hugging Pat Pete at the end of the game and Pat Pete says I love you coach and KOC says I love you man. You can see the bond and respect. With Cousins, KOC has helped him get out of his own head, I think that's the biggest difference. They worked together before so that is an advantage. That clutch piece is there, he is able to rebound and overcome after a mistake. He doesn't go into a shell. He has freedom and input and that's important to him.
Of course Jefferson is out of this world elite. And Dalvin is making things happen but the addition of Hockenson was huge. Bradbury has been able to rebound and the OL is making progress. The defense is getting things done too. So I know some people thought that the talk about culture was ridiculous or silly but we are seeing the impact of it. The Situational masters meeting (using league wide film) to discuss certain situations is bbrilliant. The bond of this team is also very important and fun to watch.
@"Vikergirl" said: Great writeup VO. I remember in training camp how KOC was talking to everyone, I thought that was important. And he doesn't have such an ego that he won't take input from the players, it is really smart to do so. There is a video of him lifting Pat Pete up during the locker room speech and a video of him hugging Pat Pete at the end of the game and Pat Pete says I love you coach and KOC says I love you man. You can see the bond and respect. With Cousins, KOC has helped him get out of his own head, I think that's the biggest difference. They worked together before so that is an advantage. That clutch piece is there, he is able to rebound and overcome after a mistake. He doesn't go into a shell. He has freedom and input and that's important to him.Of course Jefferson is out of this world elite. And Dalvin is making things happen but the addition of Hockenson was huge. Bradbury has been able to rebound and the OL is making progress. The defense is getting things done too. So I know some people thought that the talk about culture was ridiculous or silly but we are seeing the impact of it. The Situational masters meeting (using league wide film) to discuss certain situations is bbrilliant. The bond of this team is also very important and fun to watch.
A couple of things -- I think one of the important cultural changes is that players are no longer walking on eggshells. They can make mistakes and not suffer the wrath of Zim. It has allowed Cousins to throw more 50/50 balls; it has empowered the defense to go for more turnovers.
On Bradbury from ESPN: The Vikings' new leadership group committed to evaluating Bradbury this season, and he has rewarded that decision. Bradbury has played all but two snaps and ranks No. 10 in ESPN Analytics' run block win rate metric. As for concern about past struggles in pass protection, he ranks No. 17 in the pass block win rate metric. Add it all up, and Bradbury has been an above-average center in 2022 and is on his way to being a priority free agent this winter.
@"VikingOracle" said:@"Vikergirl" said: Great writeup VO. I remember in training camp how KOC was talking to everyone, I thought that was important. And he doesn't have such an ego that he won't take input from the players, it is really smart to do so. There is a video of him lifting Pat Pete up during the locker room speech and a video of him hugging Pat Pete at the end of the game and Pat Pete says I love you coach and KOC says I love you man. You can see the bond and respect. With Cousins, KOC has helped him get out of his own head, I think that's the biggest difference. They worked together before so that is an advantage. That clutch piece is there, he is able to rebound and overcome after a mistake. He doesn't go into a shell. He has freedom and input and that's important to him.Of course Jefferson is out of this world elite. And Dalvin is making things happen but the addition of Hockenson was huge. Bradbury has been able to rebound and the OL is making progress. The defense is getting things done too. So I know some people thought that the talk about culture was ridiculous or silly but we are seeing the impact of it. The Situational masters meeting (using league wide film) to discuss certain situations is bbrilliant. The bond of this team is also very important and fun to watch.
A couple of things -- I think one of the important cultural changes is that players are no longer walking on eggshells. They can make mistakes and not suffer the wrath of Zim. It has allowed Cousins to throw more 50/50 balls; it has empowered the defense to go for more turnovers.On Bradbury from ESPN: The Vikings' new leadership group committed to evaluating Bradbury this season, and he has rewarded that decision. Bradbury has played all but two snaps and ranks No. 10 in ESPN Analytics' run block win rate metric. As for concern about past struggles in pass protection, he ranks No. 17 in the pass block win rate metric. Add it all up, and Bradbury has been an above-average center in 2022 and is on his way to being a priority free agent this winter.
Absolutely Cousins definitely has a coach in his corner and that is huge. Bradbury is no doubt a priority and that says a great deal about his ability to rebound and coaching. This coaching staff is getting the most out of the players because respect is there and the environment is a positive one. There are no favorites, injured guys don't get ignored and there is a determination to rebound after mistakes. It's pretty amazing actually.
It's been a series of good decision making. With the possible exception of not getting what we thought they should have in the draft trade down, all decisions have proven to be pretty good ones that have paid off...from choosing not to rebuild to sticking with Cousins and Bradbury to adding Hockenson to all the in-game, situational game calls, leadership just keeps making the right calls. This group could be here a while.
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