To Rebuild or Run it Back

Yep, worth keeping an eye on. If Minnesota has another non-playoff year upcoming, I'll think you'll see them take a similar approach to Seattle. But if you look at last year, how the team was poorly coached situationally, how the defense collapsed in epic proportions in historically bad ways and the team STILL being in most games, I think it undertstandably gave the new regime hope for a quick fix. 

Run it Back seems to be the right way to go. Doesn't mean it will work out that way. But its probably the best decision that may not bear results to match the prudent move. We'll see.

Won't likely know for 3 to 5 years.   Even then lots of variables. 

@"JimmyinSD" said: Won't likely know for 3 to 5 years.   Even then lots of variables. 

Funny enough if I were them, I’d have said run it back with Russ, DK, Lockett, and try your best to retool the defense. And if I were us, I’d have leaned towards blow it up. Shows what I know.

I will say I really like how KAM has spent money this offseason— primarily on the Kirk and Z Smith deals— that will allow us to run it back yet again the following year if things go well this season. But if not, we can move on from many pieces after this season or at worst in Kirk’s case, the following year.

For a first-time GM on a 4-year contract, I have to admit what he’s doing is probably the most sensible approach. For a long-suffering fan who covets an elite QB for once, I would have done things differently. I’m very interested and excited to see how the draft goes.

Last thought— I do think if Rick Spielman were still the GM the offseason to date would have gone very, very similar to how it’s gone. Seems like the Wilfs wanted a culture change, not a roster change. Which knowing all that we know now, seems wise. 

@"pattersaur" said:

Last thought— I do think if Rick Spielman were still the GM the offseason to date would have gone very, very similar to how it’s gone. Seems like the Wilfs wanted a culture change, not a roster change. Which knowing all that we know now, seems wise. 

The issue with the Seahawks is their draft classes for the last 5 years have been pathetic, like comically bad. Their team, on paper, is not good and it makes it hard to win with a pricy QB and high end free agents as opposed to impact players on rookie deals. Pretty easy to know you have to blow it up and get a ton of draft picks

@"Hawkvike25" said: The issue with the Seahawks is their draft classes for the last 5 years have been pathetic, like comically bad. Their team, on paper, is not good and it makes it hard to win with a pricy QB and high end free agents as opposed to impact players on rookie deals. Pretty easy to know you have to blow it up and get a ton of draft picks

@"StickyBun" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said: Won't likely know for 3 to 5 years.   Even then lots of variables. 

Agreed. But that won't stop a good chunk of fans from micromanaging or overreacting year to year. 5 years might be a bit much, but the variables thing is very true. Unfortunately, the Vikings' long history is that the X-factors and variables are rarely on their side. Truly, the vast majority of us long timers will have to see it to believe it.

Seattle is about to find out what life is like without a HOF/Franchise/Elite QB.

Didnt take em too long to forget. How long did Wilson play there? 8 seasons? 9?

Unless they got a GB size QB horseshoe up their asz?  The 12th man isnt very intimidating now. 

@"purplefaithful" said: Seattle is about to find out what life is like without a HOF/Franchise/Elite QB.

Didnt take em too long to forget. How long did Wilson play there? 8 seasons? 9?

Unless they got a GB size QB horseshoe up their asz?  The 12th man isnt very intimidating now. 

I think you run it back when you have had some kind of previous success to run back to.  When you are a below average team that has one wild card appearance in 3 years, I think you want to strip it down.  I expect to see the same results we have seen over the last few years.  Bill Belichick didn't miraculously start and stop being a great coach when Brady arrived and then left.  I don't think that new coaches are going to move the needle in terms of where we need to go.  

@"MaroonBells" said: It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.   While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  

@"minny65" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.   While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 

I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  

@"pattersaur" said: Funny enough if I were them, I’d have said run it back with Russ, DK, Lockett, and try your best to retool the defense. And if I were us, I’d have leaned towards blow it up. Shows what I know.

I will say I really like how KAM has spent money this offseason— primarily on the Kirk and Z Smith deals— that will allow us to run it back yet again the following year if things go well this season. But if not, we can move on from many pieces after this season or at worst in Kirk’s case, the following year.

For a first-time GM on a 4-year contract, I have to admit what he’s doing is probably the most sensible approach. For a long-suffering fan who covets an elite QB for once, I would have done things differently. I’m very interested and excited to see how the draft goes.

Last thought— I do think if Rick Spielman were still the GM the offseason to date would have gone very, very similar to how it’s gone. Seems like the Wilfs wanted a culture change, not a roster change. Which knowing all that we know now, seems wise. 

@"Hawkvike25" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.   While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 

I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  

Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't really a good comparison for me. Matt Ryan had his greatest year when Shanahan was OC. He left for SF and people failed to believe that Kyle's football intelligence helped elevate Matt Ryan to where we all want Kirk to be. I'm not saying the new regime does that for Kirk, but having a crew that isn't afraid to talk to one another will help our offense, especially when we dont have Lil' Kubiak calling a run on 2nd down every time.

@"minny65" said:

@"Hawkvike25" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.   While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 

I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  

Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't really a good comparison for me. Matt Ryan had his greatest year when Shanahan was OC. He left for SF and people failed to believe that Kyle's football intelligence helped elevate Matt Ryan to where we all want Kirk to be. I'm not saying the new regime does that for Kirk, but having a crew that isn't afraid to talk to one another will help our offense, especially when we dont have Lil' Kubiak calling a run on 2nd down every time.

I wasn't comparing the players Ryan/KC I was comparing the potential situation of hanging on too long and creating a huge dead cap when you have to pay the piper.  

@"Hawkvike25" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"Hawkvike25" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.   While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 

I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  

Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't really a good comparison for me. Matt Ryan had his greatest year when Shanahan was OC. He left for SF and people failed to believe that Kyle's football intelligence helped elevate Matt Ryan to where we all want Kirk to be. I'm not saying the new regime does that for Kirk, but having a crew that isn't afraid to talk to one another will help our offense, especially when we dont have Lil' Kubiak calling a run on 2nd down every time.

I wasn't comparing the players Ryan/KC I was comparing the potential situation of hanging on too long and creating a huge dead cap when you have to pay the piper.  

I get that, I was mentioning comparing the Ryan/Falcons situation to Russ/Seahawks. The rise and fall of the Seahawks was the Legion of Boom. The rise and fall of the Falcons was because of a great coach coming and leaving. 

The first rule of Tank Club is you never talk about Tank Club, & Seattle ain’t talking… ;) B)  

@"Caactorvike" said:

@"pattersaur" said: Funny enough if I were them, I’d have said run it back with Russ, DK, Lockett, and try your best to retool the defense. And if I were us, I’d have leaned towards blow it up. Shows what I know.

I will say I really like how KAM has spent money this offseason— primarily on the Kirk and Z Smith deals— that will allow us to run it back yet again the following year if things go well this season. But if not, we can move on from many pieces after this season or at worst in Kirk’s case, the following year.

For a first-time GM on a 4-year contract, I have to admit what he’s doing is probably the most sensible approach. For a long-suffering fan who covets an elite QB for once, I would have done things differently. I’m very interested and excited to see how the draft goes.

Last thought— I do think if Rick Spielman were still the GM the offseason to date would have gone very, very similar to how it’s gone. Seems like the Wilfs wanted a culture change, not a roster change. Which knowing all that we know now, seems wise. 

“The Wilfs wanted a culture change not a roster change.”  Never heard it put so succinctly. Exactly right. 

@"minny65" said:

@"Hawkvike25" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"Hawkvike25" said:

@"minny65" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: It’s interesting how many similarities there are between Minnesota and Seattle. Both are teams who wanted to run the ball and play good defense. Wilson is probably top 5, Cousins top 10, similar cap hits, same age. Both teams have a really good young WR and defenses that just weren’t good enough to play the kind of football they wanted to play.   While Minnesota fired their GM and HC, the new regime has decided to run it back, keeping their roster largely intact. Seattle, on the other hand, is blowing it up. They traded Wilson, they released Bobby Wagner and right now have Drew Lock and Geno Smith at QB. They’re rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield, a player many suggested for the Vikings if we had taken a similar path. 

Will Seattle draft a QB at 9 or wait until next year? Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens there. How long before they’re competitive again? Which team made the right decision? 

I am hoping that next season we aren't in a similar boat as the Falcons were with Matt Ryan this offseason.  They have a 40.5 dead Cap for Ryan that is not helping one bit in a much needed rebuild.  The Falcons won 1 game less than us last year and pick 8th and now have a "need" for a QB and will probably have to "reach". 

It doesn't seem to me that any of these QB's are even Top 15 material, but a few will go.  If you would to pile in this years crop of QB with last year's I don't think any of them are ranked or drafted before Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Feilds or Jones.  

The Falcons held onto Ryan too long and played chicken with the dead cap and are paying the price now.  They got a 3rd round pick for Ryan in return.  They now have Mariota as their starter. They put themselves in a tough spot the last few years thinking they were only a player or two away from being a contender and they clearly weren't.

There are differing approaches coming from Seattle, Minnesota, Falcons, Bears etc... no doubt.  Seattle had a SB winning run with Wilson and the Falcons were close with Ryan years ago.  That said, the Seattle tear-down is the better approach - IMO.  They didn't wait too long to get excellent value for Wilson or take an historic dead cap hit like the Falcons did.  Falcons are going to have the thread the needle the next 2 years to get back up into contention.  

Back to our beloved Vikings - Obviously, the Wilf's wanted to stay the course roster wise and push out KC's contract with the thought we have enough talent and are a player or two away.  Hoping that is the correct path and we aren't similar to the Falcons next offseason....yikes.  
  

Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't really a good comparison for me. Matt Ryan had his greatest year when Shanahan was OC. He left for SF and people failed to believe that Kyle's football intelligence helped elevate Matt Ryan to where we all want Kirk to be. I'm not saying the new regime does that for Kirk, but having a crew that isn't afraid to talk to one another will help our offense, especially when we dont have Lil' Kubiak calling a run on 2nd down every time.

I wasn't comparing the players Ryan/KC I was comparing the potential situation of hanging on too long and creating a huge dead cap when you have to pay the piper.  

I get that, I was mentioning comparing the Ryan/Falcons situation to Russ/Seahawks. The rise and fall of the Seahawks was the Legion of Boom. The rise and fall of the Falcons was because of a great coach coming and leaving. 

:)

I am still talking more about the OP theme and "situational" decisions of hanging on too long vs knowing when to rebuild.  Awareness of your window and timing of moving on from the QB, the Falcons hung on too long and are paying a huge price for that (I'm not looking at why or when Ryan's/Falcons window closed).  The Seahawks got a pretty good return on Wilson while the Falcons took a bath.  Basically, you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them.  My fear is that we are holding onto to Kirk (ala Ryan) too long and we are going to pay a heavy price for that next year.  Of course, I hope I am 100% wrong.  

As far as windows - Zimmer was able to create a window that closed 3 + years ago with our version of legion but no QB like Wilson or Ryan.  Unfortunately, by the time we got KC the Defense/Coaching/ST became second tier and the window had been shut. Obviously, the Wilf's think we have enough to contend with new coaching and 3-4 switch.