NFLDG Final Mock
Now that the clock has struck midnight (CT) it is officially draft day. Going into this I can say that never has there been so many unknowns on how the draft will play out. The lack of a scouting combine, the normal scouting circuit, and the ability to bring player in for visits has pulled a veil over the entire process. But with intrigue & unknowns comes surprises, which we're all anxiously awaiting. But here it is... the final mock for this draft season:
1(14): TRADE. Vikings trade 1(14) and 4(143) to Miami for 1(18) and 3(81). Come tomorrow evening I don't think the Vikings will end up deviating much from their original draft slot. There are 16 or so 1st round players in this draft class and you don't want to pass up one of those players. The big choice the Vikings will need to make in the 14 hole is whether they want to draft the 3rd or 4th best offensive lineman or one of the best pass rushers. They drop back 4 slots to see how the board shapes up. In an alternative universe I can see them trading up for Sewell/Slater so be on the lookout.
1(18) via Miami: Jaelan Phillips DE/Miami - Instead of going offensive line in round one the Vikings end up taking the most talented edge rusher in this years class. Although Phillips has struggled with a multitude of injuries and has interests in music, he's ended up on plenty of teams draft boards. Since transferring to Miami he's outlook on football has changed. Its a game he loves and is certainly one he is good at. He will provide a day 1 running mate to Danielle Hunter and boy has the Vikings D-line gone from a weakness to a strength in one off-season. Phillips - Pierce - Tomlinson - Hunter. Watch out.
2(61) via BUF: Trade. Wyatt Davis OG/Ohio State - The Vikings trade 3(78) and 4(119) for 2(61). By trading back in round 1 the Vikings can watch the board fall early on day two before pouncing on a lineman of their choice. Davis' name has cooled in recent weeks, mainly because he was overhyped to begin with. On the field he is a scheme versatile guard who can play on either the right or left side. Although a knee injury (not serious) derailed his 2020 season he should be a plug & play starter. If not we competes with Mason Cole initially.
3(81) via MIA: Brady Christensen OT/BYU - Fans rejoice as the Vikings spend back-to-back picks on the O-line. Literally people are shooting off confetti in front of TCO Performance Center. Jokes aside, Christensen would prove to be a great value in round 3 as he'll slide a bit due to his age and tweener status. With his arms is he a guard or tackle? Good question. Fortunately the Vikings can slot him into the "right side" of the line and go from there. Moving Brian O'Neill to the blind-side is somewhat of a formality outside of a trade up for Sewell or Slater. Christensen & Ezra Cleveland work together in camp to see who is the better RG and the better RT. A line of O'Neill - Davis - Bradbury - Christensen - Cleveland like the D-line is much improved.
3(90): Pete Werner LB/Ohio State - With their final selection on day 2 the Vikings dip into the extremely talented pool of LBs this draft class offers. Werner is a day one starter at the WILL and has the ability to continue developing to the point he could replace Anthony Barr a season from now. I would expect the Vikings to prioritize a LB earlier than most think. They lack depth and can use a day-1 starter to replace the loss of Eric Wilson. Finding a player who has the flexibility to continue growing into a larger role is icing on the cake. Outside of being a stellar LB prospect some scouts believe Werner has the potential to become one of the best special team players in the league.
4(125): Caden Stearns S/Texas - Ironically if there is a single player I believe the Vikings will try their hardest to walk away with during the draft, its Stearns. They've met with him on multiple occasions and he has the athletic attributes/tape tendencies the Vikings look for in safeties. At Texas, Stearns was strong in coverage but needs improvement attacking the running game. The coaching staff has proven they can fix the latter. Stearns ideally sits behind Xavier Woods for a season before getting a shot to compete for the FS spot in 2022.
4(134): Jaelon Darden WR/Northern Texas - It is very possible the teams addresses their need at WR earlier than the 4th round but in this mock the value just wasn't there. Darden is an undersized but unbelievably shifty player. He likely isn't refined enough to push Chad Beebe out of the slot in training camp but should be able to develop at worst into a WR4 type. Based on his shiftiness he should be one of the leagues better punt returners from day one, which is also a need for the team.
5(157): Jaime Newman QB/Wake Forest - Similar to WR its very possible the FO draft a QB in the early rounds if the right value presents itself. In this mock the Vikings take a athletic yet raw passer in Newman who wasn't able to compete at Georgia this past season. As a QB Newman has proven he can run the ball and protect the football when needed. He needs to continue to address his footwork in the pocket and anticipation skills. With a year in the SEC his draft stock could have exploded so he's a bit of a mystery. Ultimately the risk is worth the reward for MN who can let Newman compete for a QB 2/3 role.
5(168): Darius Stills DT/West Virginia - This DT class is awful, lets just clarify that right off the bat. With that said it made sense the Vikings signed Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency to address the need before encountering the bottleneck. Currently the teams depth chart lacks true gap shooters and this class does offer a few talents who excel with that skill. As a player Stills is incredibly undersized and needs to develop better fundamentals. But he is quick and can get pressure on the QB, he's work a late round shot.
6(199): Jose Borregales K/Miami - If not with a draft pick the Vikings will bring in competition for Greg Joseph. Borregales had a nice 2020 season with improved accuracy. He's alway had a big leg and can easily hit 50+ yard FGs. A 6th round pick is worth the flier to ensure you get strong competition into camp. The Vikings finding a kicker is no shorter than the Odyssey and adding talent any way possible likely moves us closer to a conclusion.
Thanks for taking the time to put together all the mocks this off-season. It's fun seeing the different options the Vikings could go in the draft. With that being said, I find myself oscillating on how early they should address DE. It is a need and the pass rush struggled mightily last season, but they do have players like Wonnum and Weatherly who are at least solid and they should benefit from upgraded DTs and the return of Hunter. Though Hunter is the wild card because of his neck injury and contract demands. In a way, I think Hunter's uncertainty is the best case to spend an early pick on an edge rusher, though I'd be ok going with a 3rd or 4th round pass rusher.
As for the OL, I like the idea of adding hopefully a starting G and someone to compete for the RT spot, but I personally like the idea of getting one of the top 4 OTs more than a pass rusher, especially since some of the top pass rushers seem to have a few red flags this year. I do agree with you that they need to draft two OL this year, since I think we are still missing a starting guard and poor guard play was a major issue last season.
As much as I hate drafting CBs, I think it would be wise to grab one with one of the 4th rounders. Gladney's issues are very serious and while Peterson and Alexander can patch things in the short term, they are both are on 1-year deals, so developing someone who can step into a bigger role down the road would be wise.
As for the other picks, they all fill needs. I like the idea of waiting on a WR and trying to develop cost controlled replacements at LB and S to ease cap problems. I'd also love to see some sort of kick return game emerge next season. I know that rule changes make it a lot harder, but it feels like they would have been better off fair catching every kick the past few seasons. The Vikings drafting KJ Osborn instead of someone like Dominic Peoples Jones was a particularly puzzling move last season.
Phillips is a big swing, great upside. Franchise altering upside.
He's also, along with guys like Trey Smith, a huge gamble. With Hunter's neck, I just don't think we have the appetite for that large of a gamble.
I like it. Could definitely see it going somewhere along those lines
Great job, I would be very happy with this result.
@"BarrNone55" said: Phillips is a big swing, great upside. Franchise altering upside.He's also, along with guys like Trey Smith, a huge gamble. With Hunter's neck, I just don't think we have the appetite for that large of a gamble.
He is my nightmare scenerio. To many health concerns.
from your lips to the flying spaghetti monster’s ears
I would be thrilled with this draft
I'd be very happy with this haul. You grabbed players that "fit" the need - even a young QB and kicker. B) You got it all, and having Phillips would be so awesome!
not my cup of tea
I worry about Phillips too, but I think this mock would be a pretty nice result for us. Is drafting Phillips possibly a hedge against contract issues with Hunter going way south? I would have to wonder, as we just don’t know what’s really going on with that situation.
I like it, but gotta find a way to get a punter and long snapper in there too.
@"PurpleCrush" said: I like it, but gotta find a way to get a punter and long snapper in there too.Day 4, UDFA season.
@"BarrNone55" said: Phillips is a big swing, great upside. Franchise altering upside.He's also, along with guys like Trey Smith, a huge gamble. With Hunter's neck, I just don't think we have the appetite for that large of a gamble.
Doing some specific digging on Phillips here is kind of the consensus I gathered:
- Media: 3 concussions, wrist issue, and retired from football to pursue music since its his passion
- NFL teams: 3 concussions are worrisome, wrist was a fluke accident and it alright, pursuing music helped him realize how much he really loved football
- Miami Coaching staff: No durability issues, guy meticulously rebuilt his body, teammates love him, he quit his music courses since they were interfering with team activities/events
The real answer is somewhere between all of those. Until I dug up quite a bit I figured he would be off more teams boards. In the end he had some bad luck with concussions early on but you can't deny the talent and I don't think music will be an off-field issue. Its a hobby not a career to him.
@"prairieghost" said: I worry about Phillips too, but I think this mock would be a pretty nice result for us. Is drafting Phillips possibly a hedge against contract issues with Hunter going way south? I would have to wonder, as we just don’t know what’s really going on with that situation.Not really, they want him to have a running mate. You can't game plan for Hunter when you have to account for a strong book-end. Strong DEs also make Zimmer's pressure packages go round since they can always rush 4.
All valid points, but he's still got the 3 concussions.
@"BarrNone55" said: All valid points, but he's still got the 3 concussions.Here is an interesting one for you... were they all actually concussions or a reoccurrence of one moderate concussion that led to a multitude of concussion like symptoms? Not saying either way but I know at least one team that thinks it was a single concussion that wasn't handled well.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:That's an interesting take. One concussion would be slightly more palatable.@"BarrNone55" said: All valid points, but he's still got the 3 concussions. Here is an interesting one for you... were they all actually concussions or a reoccurrence of one moderate concussion that led to a multitude of concussion like symptoms? Not saying either way but I know at least one team that thinks it was a single concussion that wasn't handled well.
I'm tiptoeing around this draft because it is Guru and I have zero team insight:
But I really dislike this draft.
1 - We "need" to get one of the Top 3 OT's - Sewell, Slater or Darrisaw. That has to happen in the first round either at 14 or a slight move up. If all 3 are gone I really advocate for a drop down and pick up a 2nd rounder and still have a shot at AVT in the 18-28 slot. I would not draft Phillips for us at this time. A team in full rebuild and multiple early picks should take the chance. This draft is pretty deep at DE and we can find someone in round 2 (move up) or round 3. I like Weaver from Pitt as a candidate.
Pick (61) 2nd pick is, of course, fully dependent on the first pick. If we got either of the Big 3 T's or fell back and got AVT, I would do the proposed move up for Levi -3T from Washington or a falling player at a position of need like Weaver. I would not move up for a Guard in this draft because I think the 3rd pick(81) - Christensen - is a Guard and has the athleticism that Cleveland had coming out. I also like Eichenberg (ND) as a Guard. I think we could get either one of them at 90.
Pick(81) Is it possible Levi or Weaver are still there? Probably not, so in my move up scenario I go Levi because because the depth at DE and the shallowness of IDL. Assume Weaver is gone then I would be targeting Dayo or Sample. Both have the size to do some interior rushing for us in the BRob mold to compliment Hunter's speed rush.
Pick (90) Christensen or Eichenberg as Guard's. With our scheme we like the athleticism of former Tackles playing Guard and both fit our mold.
Bottom line for me (it's all about me) is that we need to come away with a TOP 3 Tackles and a projected Guard from the tackle list. If we are able to get a guy like Weaver or Levi then that would be an awesome draft for me even before getting in to the late day picks. I also love Cisco at Safety but he likely gone before the 3rd round so no real shot at him and not a move up candidate because that need is not as great.
Oh well, pumped for tonight!
@"BarrNone55" said:Too risky.....gotta go Day 2.@"PurpleCrush" said: I like it, but gotta find a way to get a punter and long snapper in there too. Day 4, UDFA season.
I'm a mixed bag at the top of this draft.
As BN points out, with big questions with Hunter, do you dare take a chance with Phillips?
Last I looked LT is pretty important and pretty open right now. For a team with aspirations of supplanting GB for The North, this draft strategy doesnt address that aggressively enough for me. I dont have any appetite for moving O'Neil or Cleveland. No assurance @ LG either last I looked. Could end-up with a dumpster fire over there.
Now if I saw a move up for Slater or Sewell? I'd be dancing a jig over it.
This draft would leave me uneasy, not in a state of Zen.
YAASSS! Best one yet. In the immortal words of Yul Brynner, so let it written; so let it be done.
I'm willing to take the gamble on Phillips. Potential payoff is just too great.
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