Guru: Vikings Mock Off-Season Plan
Well, well, well, its that time of year again with roughly a week until NFL free agency begins during the league's "legal tampering" period. Although I've historically done a few mock off-seasons in the past life is just too busy so this will likely be my only iteration. But trust me I put some thought into it and sourced some of the information included. I just won't tell you what is sourced and what is my own speculation. How nice of me! But without being too wordy lets get into it since you're not here to listen to me ramble:
Vikings Internal UFAs (Bolded Players are Resigned):
- Jaleel Johnson: Unfortunately Jaleel just hasn't been able to put things together consistently. Although I think the Vikings did a bit of a disservice playing him on the nose he likely is ready for a new opportunity.
- Hardy Nickerson: Coming into the season the Vikings looked to have nice LB depth. That all fell apart once Cam Smith needed heart surgery and Barr was injured. Hardy Nickerson won't have a huge market and can be brought back as the minimum $990K.
- Todd Davis: On film Davis actually filled in quite admirably for the Vikings. I wouldn't discount a return for a vet minimum but opted for Nickerson.
- Brett Jones: Although he has never had a consistent chance to earn snaps at guard, Jones is well liked within the organization and is a valuable backup at center. He is brought back using the vet minimum exception $987.5K
- George Iloka: Unfortunately Iloka tore his ACL early in the season. Although he should be healthy I opted to pass on bringing him back
- Dakota Dozier: He isn't nearly as bad as he played at LG this season but at best is a depth O-lineman. My hunch is they look elsewhere but wouldn't be shocked to see him back to compete for a depth spot in camp
- Ameer Abdullah: Near the end of the season Abdullah actually played quite well. But the Vikings need to re-invent their STs unit this off-season and Abdullah likely isn't in the long-term picture
- Sean Mannion: Its possible the Vikings spend an early draft pick but also think they trust Browning to fill-in if Kirk were to miss time. Mannion brings good perspective but likely doesn't need to be brought back
- Rashod Hill: Depending on how contract negotiations play out with Riley Reiff I do think the Vikings trust Hill to start on the blind-side. As a swing tackle he likely is out of their price range
- Eric Wilson: Similar to Rashod Hill, let's see how the market develops elsewhere on the roster. Do I think the Vikings are intrigued with keeping Wilson on a lower number than Barr? Yes. But it isn't they preferred approach.
- Anthony Harris: Tagging Harris was a shocker last off-season. The goal was to tag & trade him to the Giants and it just didn't work out. Harris has had a good run in MN but he deserves to be paid.
- Chad Beebe (RFA): Kubiak loves Beebe and he deserves a shot to compete if he can stay healthy. They can't pay him the RFA tender but he won't have a huge market. He's back at the minimum $920K
- Mike Boone (RFA): Similar to Beebe I don't think the Vikings will tender Boone. However they love him as their 3rd RB. My guess is they can get him back at the minimum $920K but its more 50/50 he finds more elsewhere
- Ifeadi Odenigbo (RFA): I initially thought they'd tender Ifeadi with a 2nd round designation but with the cap being so tight they might take their chances with the right of refusal tender of $2.133M. Will a team give him a long-term deal? Maybe. But the Vikings will have an ability to match it and the resigning of Stephen Weatherly gives them some protection if that were to happen.
- Chris Jones (ERFA): I don't think Jones will make the roster after his tackling performance in 2020, but for the minimum he at least deserves a roster spot going into camp.
Restructures, Cuts, and Key Decisions:
- Harrison Smith (Extension): It doesn't make sense for the Vikings to let Harrison Smith play out the remaining year of his contract. Instead they are able to lower his $10M cap number to $5.25M on a 4 year $40M extension with $18M in guarantees. This isn't elite safety money but pays him within the top 10. Cap hits of $5.25M & $9M in 2021/22 allow the Vikings some flexibility before making a real decision in 2023 when Smith turns 34.
- Riley Reiff (Extension): As easy as it is to say the Vikings should resign Riley Reiff the ball is really in his court. The Vikings can't bring him back at his current number so he can effectively choose to test FA if he would like. Although the Vikings have consistently tried to replace Reiff nearly cutting him before the 2020 season they work out a 4 year $48M extension with $20M in guarantees. This lowers Reiff's cap hit to $6.55M in 2021 and assures him a roster spot through the 2022 season. Ultimately I am unsure if Reiff will be back but no team was willing to pay his salary prior to the season so his market may not be as comprehensive as most think for a LT.
- Brian O'Neill (Extension): This won't happen until training camp but both O'Neill and the Vikings mutually want to get an extension done. a 5 year extension worth $65M ($13M/yr) pays O'Neill as a high-end RT. Such a deal only increments his cap number upwards by $3M in 2021 but locks him up through the 2026 season. He is one of the better OTs in the NFL and worth the money.
- Anthony Barr (No Change to his contract): The team and FO are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place with Barr's contract. A simple bonus restructure makes his cost prohibitive in 2022 only buying you a year before having to make a decision on Barr again. The most ideal scenario is to convince Barr to turn $3M or so of his deal into an active roster incentive. Since he only played in 2 games this past season the majority of the money would be hidden as an "unlikely to be earned" incentive. More likely I think they bring Barr back at his current number knowing next season they have to make a real decision.
- Danielle Hunter (No Change to his contract): At some point Danielle is going to get a contract that pays him >$25M/yr. After the injury in 2020 the Vikings mutually agree to wait one more off-season. As an act of good faith the Vikings could bonus restructure to guarantee his money. That would open up cap for the Vikings in the process. But in this iteration I leave his deal as is. He will get paid by the Vikings its just a matter of time.
- Kyle Rudolph (Cut): Little late to the party here. Kyle is ready for his next big challenge and the Vikings have a great replacement in Irv Smith Jr.
- Shamar Stephen (Cut): We could see a restructure here, the coaching staff loves Shamar. But I think the team knows they need more of an interior pass rush to be effective.
- Britton Colquitt (Cut): New ST coordinator Ryan Ficken is going to have an opportunity to choose his specialists. Colquitt can't be back at his current cap number
- Dan Bailey (Cut): I don't think Dan Bailey is a bad kicker. My guess is the Vikings mutually agree to push his salary guarantee to the end of August. This gives him a chance to compete in camp.. or at least give the Vikings a chance to see who they could add in the draft
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@"BarrNone55" said:
Hopefully Mrs. Spielman nixes another CB pick.
@"BarrNone55" said:
Oh, if I'm bringing in a ST guy, it's Patterson.:)
It all comes down to how much trust you have in Mike Hughes. Personally you can't rely on him with the neck issue. So you're left with Kris Boyd, Harrison Hand, or Chris Jones starting on the outside. So some how, some way, CB is still a very big need.Although I think the Vikings would consider bringing Patterson back I don't foresee that happening it was a bad breakup.
Obviously a lot of people dislike the idea of picking a CB in round 1, but are also not completely surprised because we have done it so often. So maybe you are doing a sound public service by preparing us for what may be inevitable.But I have to ask (again, I know): if Mike Zimmer is such a CB guru (he's called "the cornerback whisperer" by posters and sports writers), why can't he develop some rough lower-round guys into good players at the position? As you said, he might (if Hughes is done) need to rely on Boyd, Hand, or Jones. Well...shouldn't guys like Boyd or Hand, who had fine skills for the position coming from college, and have now had 1-2 years of instruction with The Cornerback Whisperer himself, be better than some kid who was being coached at South Carolina last year??
If Zimmer needs a couple more lumps of clay to mold, I have no problems using a pick or two later in the draft to get him Benjamin St.-Juste or Trill Williams. Coach 'em up, CB Whisperer, I'm sure we'll all be impressed with your results in a year or two!!
Again, we tend to draft to our (alleged) coaching strength. He's worried about "only" having a few promising prospects at CB? Well, the rest of the world is worried about OG where, just like the past 5 years, we have ZERO promising prospects that might be able to step up.
Zimmer isn't the CB Whisperer, he's the CB Worrier. Oh no, what if I don't have high draft picks at every position in my defense?? Well, turn Harrison Hand and DJ Wonnum into All-Pros, and then we can say you're a great defensive coach.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"BarrNone55" said: Hopefully Mrs. Spielman nixes another CB pick.@"BarrNone55" said: Oh, if I'm bringing in a ST guy, it's Patterson.:)
It all comes down to how much trust you have in Mike Hughes. Personally you can't rely on him with the neck issue. So you're left with Kris Boyd, Harrison Hand, or Chris Jones starting on the outside. So some how, some way, CB is still a very big need.Although I think the Vikings would consider bringing Patterson back I don't foresee that happening it was a bad breakup.
What is Mike Hughes status for the upcoming season? Is he still on track to be back? These injuries have sucked because the guy has flashed talent when healthy. Still only 24 years old, would love to see him put a full healthy season together.
Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14?
I really hope Hunter has no issues and Michael Pierce works out.
Great work and most of it sounds great (Ditching Mannion is probably my fav part).
But jeez!
That would be 5 first round CBs in 9 years! And one of those years we didn't even have a 1st round pick (Bradford). Don't do it Rick. We fans can only take so much.
@"purplefaithful" said: Thank you for considerable time and effort - as always.Now I am going to Best Buy and shop for a new tv.
I will be right behind you.
I know everyone here knows what I'll say so let me say it loud and clear...I WANT A QB!!
Thank you @"Geoff Nichols" for the nice read and fantastic work. I truly am amazed at the insights you and others do with the draft. I love reading and learning especially your reasons for the picks.
If only you guys could add a QB :angry:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Thank you for considerable time and effort - as always.Now I am going to Best Buy and shop for a new tv.
Always happy to speed up the process. Make sure to buy an LG ;)
Ha!Actually too late.
Sprung for LG OLED not that long ago, very glad we spent the extra $$ for OLED.
FANTASTIC TV!
@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"purplefaithful" said: Thank you for considerable time and effort - as always.Now I am going to Best Buy and shop for a new tv.
Always happy to speed up the process. Make sure to buy an LG ;)
LG - a Left Guard?? Yes, always on the shopping list here..
@"supafreak84" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"BarrNone55" said: Hopefully Mrs. Spielman nixes another CB pick.@"BarrNone55" said: Oh, if I'm bringing in a ST guy, it's Patterson.:)
It all comes down to how much trust you have in Mike Hughes. Personally you can't rely on him with the neck issue. So you're left with Kris Boyd, Harrison Hand, or Chris Jones starting on the outside. So some how, some way, CB is still a very big need.Although I think the Vikings would consider bringing Patterson back I don't foresee that happening it was a bad breakup.
What is Mike Hughes status for the upcoming season? Is he still on track to be back? These injuries have sucked because the guy has flashed talent when healthy. Still only 24 years old, would love to see him put a full healthy season together.
Don't know. The neck injury is extremely concerning now that it has knocked him out of a 2nd season. My guess is they'll just see what happens in camp and hope he can stay healthy. But no way they can pick up the 5th year option.
@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14?I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.
@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.
@"JimmyinSD" said:The season of subterfuge.@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.
@"PurpleCrush" said:I have a good feeling the Vikings will like Fields a lot given their tendencies.@"JimmyinSD" said:The season of subterfuge.@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.
@"PurpleCrush" said:I know some people really get into this time of year, and I used to be one of them, but with all the bull shit we get in our daily lives these days, I really dont care for it in my distractions as well. the posturing for contracts, the posturing for draft strategy... fuck it, I am ready to know who is on this team, who wants to be on this team, and get the fuck on with it already. I read these threads hoping for some shred of credible evidence of direction, but I really should know better by now.@"JimmyinSD" said:The season of subterfuge.@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.
@"JimmyinSD" said:I do enjoy it, to a degree. There comes a point where I wish the draft is over and I can get a grasp as to what the team will look like for the upcoming season.@"PurpleCrush" said:I know some people really get into this time of year, and I used to be one of them, but with all the bull shit we get in our daily lives these days, I really dont care for it in my distractions as well. the posturing for contracts, the posturing for draft strategy... fuck it, I am ready to know who is on this team, who wants to be on this team, and get the fuck on with it already. I read these threads hoping for some shred of credible evidence of direction, but I really should know better by now.@"JimmyinSD" said:The season of subterfuge.@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.
@"JimmyinSD" said:Yeah...I'm a believer in the idea that when a prospect starts sliding, you shouldn't necessarily say, "Oh boy, everyone else is stupid, I'm about to get a bargain!" That's when you think, "Why is everyone else scared off?"@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.There are times when a slide happens for stupid, off-field reasons: Dalvin Cook, Laremy Tunsil, Randy Moss, Warren Sapp. But that won't be the case with Fields. I think the "steal" of Randy Moss weighs so heavily in Vikings' fans minds that we are always looking for the steal. Sometimes it works but there should be a caution light.
@"Jor-El" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:Yeah...I'm a believer in the idea that when a prospect starts sliding, you shouldn't necessarily say, "Oh boy, everyone else is stupid, I'm about to get a bargain!" That's when you think, "Why is everyone else scared off?"@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.There are times when a slide happens for stupid, off-field reasons: Dalvin Cook, Laremy Tunsil, Randy Moss, Warren Sapp. But that won't be the case with Fields. I think the "steal" of Randy Moss weighs so heavily in Vikings' fans minds that we are always looking for the steal. Sometimes it works but there should be a caution light.
J.Jefferson, Dalvin Cook...I got my real current and solid reasons for getting giddy about steals.
@"purplefaithful" said:@"Jor-El" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:Yeah...I'm a believer in the idea that when a prospect starts sliding, you shouldn't necessarily say, "Oh boy, everyone else is stupid, I'm about to get a bargain!" That's when you think, "Why is everyone else scared off?"@"PurpleCrush" said:or that they are not in on Fields. The guy was the projected #2 QB of this draft 6 months ago and now he's possibly the 4th or 5th off the board depending on what you read and believe.@"Geoff Nichols" said:Interesting. I guess that would go a long way to show they really are all in with Kirk.@"PurpleCrush" said: Now tell us this...what happens if a guy like Fields slips to #14? I think they'd at least pause and consider it. But more likely I could see them using him as a ticket to trade back for a premium knowing a team is coming up for a QB.There are times when a slide happens for stupid, off-field reasons: Dalvin Cook, Laremy Tunsil, Randy Moss, Warren Sapp. But that won't be the case with Fields. I think the "steal" of Randy Moss weighs so heavily in Vikings' fans minds that we are always looking for the steal. Sometimes it works but there should be a caution light.
J.Jefferson, Dalvin Cook...I got my real current and solid reasons for getting giddy about steals.
But Jefferson wasn't a steal or a slider (at draft time). He went exactly where he was projected to go in terms of consensus opinion. There wasn't a single draft analyst that I'm aware of (and I follow most of them) that had him ranked as the top receiver. Not one. Well, except for THIS idiot. :-)
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