1st Round QBs Don't Often Stay Long

@"Zanary" said: Here's something of a strong argument against betting everything on drafting blue chip QBs:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/18/no-qbs-drafted-from-2009-16-are-set-to-be-with-team-that-drafted-them/

Does this stat imply that you should NOT take a QB in the first round?

They can make that stat with a lot of positions.

There is a lot of associated relevant data missing that should be present to make the conclusions people are trying to apply.

How many RBs, WRs, LBs, or any other position, drafted in that time frame are still with their original teams? Need to know that if someone wants to conclude that QBs are a bad position to pick in the first round. What percent of 1st-round picks at ANY position are still with the team that drafted them? This might just be an outcome of the free-agent era. 

The author picked an 8-year period and assessed it 5 years after its end. What did the period prior (2001-08) look like in 2013? Maybe it's always been normal, or only a few players different. 

It's an interesting stat, sure. IMO a big factor is that starting QB is the position that is most associated with a head coach's control of a team. Get a new coach and he wants his own QB...so the rate of QB turnover could correlate to coaching turnover.

You could pretty much says the same thing about every position.  There are no guarantees in the draft, regardless of the player evaluations there is no way to know for sure who a player will perform at the next level.  Add in the length of the rookie contract and the cost to extend and there is no surprise 5 years later you would find few players at any position still on their original team.  During same period, 4 of 33 WRs are still with their original team, which is even more amazing when you think that a team has 2-3 main WRs who play and carry 5-6.

Just curious. Anyone offering up a franchise panacea of sucking for a WR?

@"JR44" said: You could pretty much says the same thing about every position.  There are no guarantees in the draft, regardless of the player evaluations there is no way to know for sure who a player will perform at the next level.  Add in the length of the rookie contract and the cost to extend and there is no surprise 5 years later you would find few players at any position still on their original team.  During same period, 4 of 33 WRs are still with their original team, which is even more amazing when you think that a team has 2-3 main WRs who play and carry 5-6.

2016	Corey Coleman	Browns
	Will Fuller	Texans
	Josh Doctson	Redskins
	Laquon Treadwell	Vikings
2015	Amari Cooper	Raiders
	Kevin White	Bears
	DeVante Parker	Dolphins
	Nelson Agholor	Eagles
	Breshad Perriman	Ravens
	Phillip Dorsett	Colts
2014	Sammy Watkins	Bills
	Mike Evans	Buccaneers
	Odell Beckham	Giants
	Brandin Cooks	Saints
	Kelvin Benjamin	Panthers
2013	Tavon Austin	Rams
	DeAndre Hopkins	Texans
	Cordarrelle Patterson	Vikings
2012	Justin Blackmon	Jaguars
	Michael Floyd	Cardinals
	Kendall Wright	Titans
	A.J. Jenkins	49ers
2011	A.J. Green	Bengals
	Julio Jones	Falcons
	Jonathan Baldwin	Chiefs
2010	Demaryius Thomas	Broncos
	Dez Bryant	Cowboys
2009	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Raiders
	Michael Crabtree	49ers
	Jeremy Maclin	Eagles
	Percy Harvin	Vikings
	Hakeem Nicks	Giants
	Kenny Britt	Titans

I saw the article as interesting, because every offseason there's choruses of "trade our picks and half of our blue-chip players to draft (QB x)".  This offseason in particular, there's an unending pile of trade babble surrounding our QB to the point that the bobbleheads in question are actually getting sub-stories out of their own fixation on Mr. Cousins.  Meanwhile, the most glaring issues on our team are elsewhere and brutally obvious.

I'm honestly finding the every-offseason-QB-speculation as tiring as the years we spent wondering if the team would be staying, moving, getting a stadium, getting sold, etc etc etc.  We've got a guy who's reportedly 2nd deadliest in the league with a clean pocket, and who's accurate while also being very productive.  He's not perfect, but he managed to get a TD vs Tampa Bay (while getting sacked more times than Brady had pressures)...something Mahomes couldn't do in the Superb Owl.

So, I put this out there for thought, not as an absolute statement.

"https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1363292353256071172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">

"https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1362854729072713729?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

@"Carl Knowles" said: "https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1363292353256071172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">

The Vikings will certainly have plenty of opportunities to add more mid to late round talent this year. 

But, I'm not falling for all this 1st round doom and gloom. I wouldn't trade all the way out of it.

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Carl Knowles" said: "https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1363292353256071172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">

Carl, don't bring this shit in here...you know he sucks.  :p

@"JR44" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Carl Knowles" said: "https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1363292353256071172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">

Carl, don't bring this shit in here...you know he sucks.  :p

Yeah, it is shocking that most of a QBs TD passes would come in the red zone =)  And how many did he throw during his 7-34 record against good teams?