Calling BS on Kicking
In the past ~30 hours I have seen many posts on this board, other boards, and in news articles which assert: "Vikings would have defeated Tampa if Dan Bailey hadn't screwed up". We lost by 12 and Bailey failed on kicks which could have totaled 10. I know people are already typing furiously to tell me how Tampa would not have kicked the first half FG if they hadn't taken over so close (because you are certain they wouldn't have run it back at least as far against our ace coverage units?) or the momentum or team morale would have been different (because guessing the enthusiasm of Vikings teams is such an exact science?) Time of possession, yardage...football isn't about either of those, it is about points, and even if Bailey was perfect, looks like a 26-24 loss by my math.
I'm not here to defend Bailey really. Keep him, replace him...I don't personally believe there is anyone on this staff able to either help him fix his issues or able to identify and manage another kicker, so they may as well wait. But there is another angle to many of these rants, which is basically: "Poor Mike Zimmer would have a better record and probably a couple championships if not for bad kicking."
Seriously? First, kickers are unpredictable (if not nuts). What coach pins his career and his team's fate on kicking? Do you think maybe Zimmer should know that, because maybe he got a pretty strong lesson in that around January 2016?? So if he is counting on kicking to win games, he is either stupid, or has a team that can barely compete and has to take that risk. So he's not coaching a team that can compete for a championship.
Besides: Field Goals are CONSOLATION PRIZES. Hey Zimmer, the point of football is to get ALL THE WAY to the end zone - sorry if that means building an offense that can consistently drive 50, 60, 70 yards and punch it in. I guess it would be nicer just take a punt somewhere like your own 35, get a couple first downs and get to the opponents 40 and get 3 points. Should we call the 40 yard line the "Nice Try Zone" and make 3 points automatic?
My hunch is that Spielman and Zimmer are secretly happy to have the kicker kerfuffle, because they can cut Bailey and fire Malouf and say, "We were just a kicker away from the playoffs!" It will be another excuse to present to the Wilfs.
It sucks that Bailey has been off. I think they have to have different play options for those long kicks when they don't trust their kicker. But I didn't think putting him out there for the long kick was a good idea. There were a lot of points left on the field. They could have sustained some drives too. The kicking issue has reared its ugly head. You have to have a reliable kicker. I prefer the touchdowns. I prefer aggressive play calling but Zimmer doesn't and at this moment he is still the coach. The momentum shift from all the misses was not good. The shot to Bailey's confidence was not good. But here we are again waiting to see what happens next.
Every missed kick including the extra point totally deflated the team, it was a lot more than just the points. Ultimately, we lost the game because we didn't punch in TDs when we had the chance which has been a problem all year, but to say that the the missed FGs would have only accounted for 10 points is not taking the totality of the game into consideration.
Did you see Bailey's body language on his first XP attempt?? Horrible. I looked at my wife and said, 'Look at him....he's going to miss it'.
Punting is consolation defense.....
We should not have any punters Just give the opponent the ball at the 50,40 or 30 yard line and play good defense. That's what the defense is supposed to do - stop the opponent from scoring. Right? Sorry if that means building a defense that consistently stops opponents from scoring and not letting them reach the "nice try zone" even so they can't get the "automatic" three points.
Back to kickers....They are all unpredictable and no coach pins his teams faith on them or counts on the kicker to win a game. Not Bill Belichick who had two superbowl wins decided by the leg of a kicker
As a matter of fact using your thought process no one should care about special teams... not John Harbaugh, not Joe Judge and certainly not Zimmer.
@"JR44" said: Every missed kick including the extra point totally deflated the team, it was a lot more than just the points. Ultimately, we lost the game because we didn't punch in TDs when we had the chance which has been a problem all year, but to say that the the missed FGs would have only accounted for 10 points is not taking the totality of the game into consideration.This. But it's not just about the psychology of it. The missed kicks also took us out of our game plan, which was working well.
@"Jor-El" said: Hey Zimmer, the point of football is to get ALL THE WAY to the end zone - sorry if that means building an offense that can consistently drive 50, 60, 70 yards and punch it in.
Well then, you'll be pleased to know that offense has been, indeed, built.
You know there are sites that track Red Zone efficiency?
Before the Tampa game, the Vikes O was ranked 3rd in the league in "TD only" efficiency, less than 1% point of the league best.
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com
After the Tampa game, they've dropped to 5th.
(adjust the date on the link)
@"StickyBun" said: Did you see Bailey's body language on his first XP attempt?? Horrible. I looked at my wife and said, 'Look at him....he's going to miss it'.I noticed this too. When he trotted out for the first field goal attempt I was thinking oh boy, there is a very good chance he misses this. I knew he stood no chance with the 50 yarder, but we should have punted that anyway.
@"Hawkvike25" said:I said punt it when I was watching the game. Each miss was a huge momentum killer.@"StickyBun" said: Did you see Bailey's body language on his first XP attempt?? Horrible. I looked at my wife and said, 'Look at him....he's going to miss it'. I noticed this too. When he trotted out for the first field goal attempt I was thinking oh boy, there is a very good chance he misses this. I knew he stood no chance with the 50 yarder, but we should have punted that anyway.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"JR44" said: Every missed kick including the extra point totally deflated the team, it was a lot more than just the points. Ultimately, we lost the game because we didn't punch in TDs when we had the chance which has been a problem all year, but to say that the the missed FGs would have only accounted for 10 points is not taking the totality of the game into consideration. This. But it's not just about the psychology of it. The missed kicks also took us out of our game plan, which was working well.
If the game plan is about "winning with FGs" or "staying close", then it isn't going to work against good teams. I would argue that a team is never going to win a championship if it doesn't build the swagger that comes from dominating teams, at least sometimes or even just weak teams. Why haven't we ever had a big lead and kept it for a game? If we're even "pretty good", and we're trying to build momentum or psychology, why don't we pound it into a team like Jacksonville or Carolina??The answer is that Zimmer's entire football philosophy is to play conservatively, win a slow game of field position and possession, and that means eking out 3 points at a time. His entire philosophy is dependent on having a great placekicker, so he cannot abandon that - even though he and/or his staff have been terrible at identifying and managing kickers. He kept trying to get points from his kicker even with 2 games of evidence that Bailey was a mess.
IMO his offensive philosophy is ridiculous in this day and age. Great offensive teams can lose TOP and still beat you easily with long fast pass plays. He knows as well as any coach that he should not be counting on his kicker, but he continues to operate a game plan that relies on kicking FGs and winning close games. It's futile.
@"Jor-El" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JR44" said: Every missed kick including the extra point totally deflated the team, it was a lot more than just the points. Ultimately, we lost the game because we didn't punch in TDs when we had the chance which has been a problem all year, but to say that the the missed FGs would have only accounted for 10 points is not taking the totality of the game into consideration. This. But it's not just about the psychology of it. The missed kicks also took us out of our game plan, which was working well.
If the game plan is about "winning with FGs" or "staying close", then it isn't going to work against good teams. I would argue that a team is never going to win a championship if it doesn't build the swagger that comes from dominating teams, at least sometimes or even just weak teams. Why haven't we ever had a big lead and kept it for a game? If we're even "pretty good", and we're trying to build momentum or psychology, why don't we pound it into a team like Jacksonville or Carolina??The answer is that Zimmer's entire football philosophy is to play conservatively, win a slow game of field position and possession, and that means eking out 3 points at a time. His entire philosophy is dependent on having a great placekicker, so he cannot abandon that - even though he and/or his staff have been terrible at identifying and managing kickers. He kept trying to get points from his kicker even with 2 games of evidence that Bailey was a mess.
IMO his offensive philosophy is ridiculous in this day and age. Great offensive teams can lose TOP and still beat you easily with long fast pass plays. He knows as well as any coach that he should not be counting on his kicker, but he continues to operate a game plan that relies on kicking FGs and winning close games. It's futile.
You play your game based on the cards you're dealt. The Vikings were dealt a hand without Hunter, Pierce, Barr, Kendricks, playing a game on the road against the best run defense in the NFL.No one expected us to win this game. But the game plan installed to keep the game close and maybe even pull out a victory was working well...until the missed kicks.
The takeaway from this game shouldn't be "Vikings should've won, Zimmer sucks," but rather "Vikings should've lost, kudos to Zimmer for installing a game plan was working until four missed kicks flipped the script."
I have no problem calling out Zimmer when he deserves it. See Philly championship game and a half dozen other games the last few years where he was simply out-coached. This wasn't one of those games.
Bailey killed us, but Kirk also took back to back sacks to make one of those kicks about 15 yds further back than it needed to be.
Suh wrecked our interior with his pass rush all game, just like many great DTs have in recent years.
Zim's clock management isn't great and at this point it's safe to say it never will be.
TB is just a better team. It's frustrating because we all want the Vikings to be good, especially with the seasons that Dalvin, Thielen, Jefferson, Kendricks, and even Harrison Smith are having.But it's just not to be this year.
I don't think Zimmer and Kirk will ever get us over that giant hump, but like @MaroonBells said, I can't blame either of them for this loss.
One guy skating in all of this is Gary Kubiak. Jefferson was woefully underused all game while we force-fed Conklin and Ham. Wth was that? I'm all for mixing it up but you gotta find a way to get JJ the ball more.
@"pattersaur" said:You take what they give, you dont force the ball to a doubled JJ or AT if you have a TE of FB wide open unless you are in a must convert situation.Bailey killed us, but Kirk also took back to back sacks to make one of those kicks about 15 yds further back than it needed to be. Suh wrecked our interior with his pass rush all game, just like many great DTs have in recent years. Zim's clock management isn't great and at this point it's safe to say it never will be. TB is just a better team. It's frustrating because we all want the Vikings to be good, especially with the seasons that Dalvin, Thielen, Jefferson, Kendricks, and even Harrison Smith are having.But it's just not to be this year. I don't think Zimmer and Kirk will ever get us over that giant hump, but like @MaroonBells said, I can't blame either of them for this loss. One guy skating in all of this is Gary Kubiak. Jefferson was woefully underused all game while we force-fed Conklin and Ham. Wth was that? I'm all for mixing it up but you gotta find a way to get JJ the ball more.
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