Forum The Longship Early line on Vikes v. Packers

Early line on Vikes v. Packers

MaroonBells
Joined Jan 2014
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Anyone who speaks Vegas care to translate this? Other than the over/under, I honestly couldn't tell you what any of this means, or whether the Vikings are favored or underdogs. 

An NFC North tussle that will feature Aaron Rodgers against Kirk Cousins as the Minnesota Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. Expect a tight, hard-hitting affair. Line: Minnesota -3.5; o/u 46.5. Moneyline: Green Bay +150; Minnesota -182.

“A gentleman is someone who can play the accordion, but doesn't." - Tom Waits

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#1 · Sep 1, 11:09 AM
DE
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It opened -3.5 but has moved most places to -2.5     When your team's line is a minus value you are favored, when it's a plus you are the underdog.  The points are subtracted from your final total when you are the favorite and added when you are the dog.  So if the Vikings are -3.5 and they win 20-17, the Packers lose but cover the spread, i.e. your bet on Minnesota -3.5 loses and a bet on Green Bay +3.5 wins.

A typical home field advantage is worth 3 points in the NFL, so a line of -3 for a home team basically says the two teams are equal if they played on a neutral field.   The Vikings normally have a larger home field edge due to the loudness of the crowd, one of 3-4 places in the league where this is the case.  So in a normal year the line might open -3.5 or even -4 where the teams are relatively equal.   However with Covid the crowd is not a factor and the home field advantage might drop to 2 or even lower.  So right now I'd say the line is moving lower because bettors are factoring that in.

The line moves around due to money being bet on either side over time.   What this line is basically saying is that the bettors see the teams as basically equal.  As the season goes on and we have real information about teams based on play the lines will adjust due to those factors.  

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#2 · Sep 1, 11:29 AM
DE
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I’m in the same boat as MB, so I really appreciate this.  I don’t bet just because it introduces an element of anxiety I don’t need when watching a game, but I like knowing who is favored and by how much. So thanks Comet.  A question what is the money line? Green Bay +150 Minnesota -182. 

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#3 · Sep 2, 12:39 PM
DE
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Money Line is the greater likelihood one has to win the game. When you have a - then you are favored to win. If you put $182 on the Vikings to win the game then you would net $100. If you bet $100 on the Packers to win the game then you would net $150.

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#4 · Sep 2, 3:19 PM
DE
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So why is this better than sex?

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#5 · Sep 2, 3:52 PM
DE
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Cuz, if you win, you can use the money for sex.
money+sex > sex

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#6 · Sep 3, 8:29 AM
DE
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I would be very hard pressed to put $$ on any game the first week or 2, or 5 for that matter...

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#7 · Sep 3, 8:49 AM
DE
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Last year i would put money on the Over for amount of penalties the Packers opposing team would have. It worked quite often

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#8 · Sep 3, 9:07 AM
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What is going to be interesting to me is the officiating. Without fans for NBA games, you can hear a lot of things that are going on around the game. There is less players whining for calls and no fan support for it. I am wondering how that will impact football. The officiating is better in hockey too.

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#9 · Sep 3, 3:42 PM
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@"purplefaithful" said: I would be very hard pressed to put $$ on any game the first week or 2, or 5 for that matter...



@"purplefaithful" said:
I would be very hard pressed to put $$ on any game the first week or 2, or 5 for that matter...


That makes perfect sense with not much of an off season and no preseason to go by.
Never the less, I just left the sports book and have placed my bet.
Hoping for a fun and prosperous season. Pretty much broke even last year. I ended up a little ahead.
I just bet enough to make it interesting, never enough to hurt.

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#10 · Sep 8, 11:47 AM
DE
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@"Vikergirl" said: What is going to be interesting to me is the officiating. Without fans for NBA games, you can hear a lot of things that are going on around the game. There is less players whining for calls and no fan support for it. I am wondering how that will impact football. The officiating is better in hockey too.
Please allow for the fans to hear Aaron complain to the refs for penalties. That would be fun
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#11 · Sep 8, 11:53 AM
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@"Hawkvike25" said:
@"Vikergirl" said: What is going to be interesting to me is the officiating. Without fans for NBA games, you can hear a lot of things that are going on around the game. There is less players whining for calls and no fan support for it. I am wondering how that will impact football. The officiating is better in hockey too.
Please allow for the fans to hear Aaron complain to the refs for penalties. That would be fun
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#12 · Sep 8, 2:37 PM
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#13 · Sep 8, 3:13 PM
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@"Vikergirl" said:
Hey!!!...Those things cost MONEY !      Asshole.

Maybe it was a picture of his family?

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#14 · Sep 8, 3:35 PM
DE
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The sports media is firmly picking the Packers this Sunday. 

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#15 · Sep 9, 5:55 AM
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@"StickyBun" said: The sports media is firmly picking the Packers this Sunday. 
packers proved to be the better team in the trenches vs Vikings. I'm not sure that's changed. Our OL vs their DL is a very big concern. Its the reason I'd bet GB if I was silly enough to bet this early in such a year. 
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#16 · Sep 9, 6:14 AM
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@"StickyBun" said: The sports media is firmly picking the Packers this Sunday. 
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#17 · Sep 9, 6:18 AM
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@"purplefaithful" said:
@"StickyBun" said: The sports media is firmly picking the Packers this Sunday. 
packers proved to be the better team in the trenches vs Vikings. I'm not sure that's changed. Our OL vs their DL is a very big concern. Its the reason I'd bet GB if I was silly enough to bet this early in such a year. 



I think we'll see some improvement from Bradbury. I also think Kubiak will do a better job mitigating whatever weakness might show up, whether it's interior pressure or the wide 9.

I keep thinking of last year's first game. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter of that game might have been the best defense we played all year. Really hope we come out better prepared this time. 

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#18 · Sep 9, 6:27 AM
DE
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@"Vikergirl" said:
You efffers drafted who---I need some targets to throw to and I'm getting bitch slapped out here.
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#19 · Sep 12, 3:35 AM
DE
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It didn't go well for me as a Vikings fan, but that is nothing new! But I started off well as an unemotional bettor. I would rather the Vikes win. But I bought insurance and ended up making $.

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#20 · Sep 13, 4:32 PM
DE
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I don't gamble on sports unless I'm in Vegas. It's just too tempting there. OTOH, I did play Rodgers in fantasy today. Sad, but true and it was the right call. 

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#21 · Sep 13, 4:36 PM
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