Kirk Cousins: Most underrated QB in the NFL (Daily Norseman)
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2020/5/26/21261172/kirk-cousins-most-underrated-qb-in-the-nfl
This was over on the sidebar last week but deserves to be seen again. Those with short attention spans, here's the jaw-dropper: In 79 starts over 5 years with 2 franchises, Cousins had a passer rating under 85 22 times. This is similar to Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Wilson's likelihood of having a stinker:
Cousins: 22 of 79 starts under 85 passer ratingBrady: 18 of 76Wilson: 21 of 80Rodgers: 21 of 71Brees:16 of 73
So how have Cousins' teammates done supporting him when he was below average? It's not pretty:
Won-loss with passer rating under 85 2015-19 seasons:
Brady: 10-8 .555
Brees: 7-9 .437
Wilson: 8-12-1 .405Rodgers 8-13 .381
Cousins 0-22 .000
Let that sink in. In 22 games over 5 seasons with 2 franchises, not ONCE did Cousins' teammates step up when he was off. Cousins' record with a passer rating over 85? 42-13-2 .
Instead of asking why Cousins can't win big games, perhaps we should be asking where the hell his teammates are?
Excerpt from article:
Once Again - Winning is About Team
Below is a chart of top quarterbacks in the league over
the past five seasons in passer rating, broken down into passer rating
range by game, along with their respective win-loss record in those
games.
The average NFL quarterback passer rating in a given
season is roughly 90, so I grouped passer ratings into six categories
around that average:
Under 70 being poor, 70-85 below average, 85-95 average, 95-110 above average, 110-130 good, and 130+ being elite.
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For the most part, there isn’t much variance between each
of the quarterbacks in terms of how many, or what percentage, of their
games fall into each passer rating category.
But there is a very significant difference in win-loss
percentage when the quarterback passer rating is either poor or below
average, which I highlighted:
All the quarterbacks have won between 7-10 games when
they’ve played either below average or poor, with the exception of
Cousins, who’s never won a game when his passer rating has been below
average.
The other quarterbacks had teams that were able to rally despite their quarterback having a
Other quarterbacks had teams that were able to rally despite their quarterback having a bad day, but Cousins’ teams were not able to pick up the slack. Not even once.
Indeed, Tom Brady has a higher winning percentage when he sucked (.571) than Cousins has overall (.545). Brees, Brady and Wilson have roughly the same winning percentages as Cousins overall when they’ve played below average.
There’s only one conclusion to be drawn from that: the other quarterbacks had teams that could carry them, but Cousins did not.
It’s
one thing if Cousins had a lot more poor or below average passer rating
games than the other quarterbacks, but he didn’t. He just didn’t have
the team around him to rally when he wasn’t having a good game - like
the other quarterbacks did.
Collectively, the other quarterbacks had a .440 winning
percentage in games when their passer rating was below 85. Cousins’ was
.000. Had Cousins had the same winning percentage as the other
quarterbacks in below average or poor games, he would have won roughly
10 more games over the past five seasons (9.68 to be exact). His
winning percentage would’ve jumped from .545 to .675 - better than all
but Brady. Undoubtedly that would also have led to more playoff games
as well.
Looking at the other end of the passer rating scale - the
good or elite games when quarterback play is clearly a big positive in
the game outcome - Cousins outperformed both Brady and Rodgers, while
only 5 or less percentage points behind Brees and Wilson.
Indeed, Cousins is tied with Brees for the 2nd most 110+
passer rating games in the NFL since 2015 with 31 - behind only Russell
Wilson with 35.
I have seen many games where Brady, Rogers and Wilson did not play well, but then still came back to make the big plays when it counted in the 4th quarter. It is more about passing rating, it is about making the big play when it counts. I like Cousins, but often when he is bad in the 1st quarter he is going to be bad throughout the entire game, the top QBs seems to still find a way to get it done.
Fans expectations for Cousins are too high. He's not Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or Tom Brady. If you were expecting that, you'll always be disappointed.
@"StickyBun" said: Fans expectations for Cousins are too high. He's not Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or Tom Brady. If you were expecting that, you'll always be disappointed.Except that he was better than two of the three last year.
I'm excited to see what he will do his 3rd year in pretty much the same offense. The secret to Brady's success is that he's been in the same system nearly his entire career. Rodgers proved how important continuity is by performing well below his standard in his new offense.
@"JR44" said: I have seen many games where Brady, Rogers and Wilson did not play well, but then still came back to make the big plays when it counted in the 4th quarter. It is more about passing rating, it is about making the big play when it counts. I like Cousins, but often when he is bad in the 1st quarter he is going to be bad throughout the entire game, the top QBs seems to still find a way to get it done.I think that might be a factor, but I also think "getting it done" might be easier with a better team.
It's there, he has dropped some dimes and also put it where AT or SD were able to make the plays. When it's going bad though, he over thinks it and doesn't get comfortable, the game slows for those gun slinger types. He's not there yet, hope it's just the Washington/Snyder hangover and he's gotten some time to sleep that one off.
@"MaroonBells" said:Yep, I agree with you. Cousins was VERY good last year and in games they lost the defense gave up an average of 24 points. What's frustrating is the performances vs Green Bay and Chicago and i think that changes this year. Kubiak is here again this year and there are still a lot of young weapons on the offense so as long as the defense stays consistent then I think this should be a fun season.@"JR44" said: I have seen many games where Brady, Rogers and Wilson did not play well, but then still came back to make the big plays when it counted in the 4th quarter. It is more about passing rating, it is about making the big play when it counts. I like Cousins, but often when he is bad in the 1st quarter he is going to be bad throughout the entire game, the top QBs seems to still find a way to get it done. I think that might be a factor, but I also think "getting it done" might be easier with a better team.
@"MaroonBells" said:Certainly your surrounding cast makes a difference but outside of Rogers and Wilson have the Packers and Seattle had more talent on their teams than the Vikings the past few years? I would say even the Patriots for that matter. Seattle with salary cap issues has lost so much talent over the last few years and since Lynch left the team 5 years ago, can you think of one other player on their offense who is a big time playmaker?@"JR44" said: I have seen many games where Brady, Rogers and Wilson did not play well, but then still came back to make the big plays when it counted in the 4th quarter. It is more about passing rating, it is about making the big play when it counts. I like Cousins, but often when he is bad in the 1st quarter he is going to be bad throughout the entire game, the top QBs seems to still find a way to get it done. I think that might be a factor, but I also think "getting it done" might be easier with a better team.There are some QBs that have that "it" factor, they make everyone better around them, they raise the level of play and when the stage and the moment are the biggest they rise to the occasion. Rogers is one of my least favorite players, but I admire the way he plays the game when it is on the line, I have seen him play awful 3 quarters and then just tear it up in the 4th quarter.
I don't expect Kirk to be a top tier QB like any of those mentioned here and we can win without him having to be. I really believe he can take this team deep into the playoffs. He has shown that he can have a so so game and then come up big at the end of the game like he did against New Orleans. We just need him to be able to do that more consistently and more importantly we need him not to totally wilt in the big moments. Hopefully, something clicks for him and maybe he learns from the New Orleans game, that he doesn't have to be perfect or have a great passer rating to still come up big and make the plays needed to win a game.
No matter how you slice and dice stats he is still in that 2nd tier group of guys with ability but flaws that limit the upside. The elite guys who can will a team to victory are a small group which he isn't a member of because his mental makeup is what it is at this point.
He will put up stats til the day he retires but to win a SB will require an elite top 5 defense, top 5 online and a fair amount of luck along the way. Also a coach who doesn't choke out of most critical contests he finds himself in.
With all these factors in play the upside for the Zimmer/Cousins led Vikes is not likely to ever be more than an early round playoff loss.
But yeah, look at those Kirk-tastic stats baby!
Kirk is really good and much better than the majority of the QBs we've rolled out over the past 30 years, save for a few seasons from Daunte, Favre and Cunningham. Maybe 1-2 others I'm forgetting.
But I agree completely with @JR44 . Through 2 seasons with us and about 5 with Washington, he has shown that if he's having an "off day" or starts the game poorly, it's very rare that he can get it back. Other weeks he looks lights out.
This is especially frustrating when it's coupled with the Vikings own franchise history (at least while I've been a fan) of laying eggs in big spots. To that end, they are a great pairing.
It will be a fantastic story if/when Kirk and the Vikings can exorcise these demons together.
@"pattersaur" said:It may be "rare" for Cousins to get it back after a slow start, but the point was that Kirk's teammates have failed him 100% of the time when he has an off day. Teddy Bridgewater in 2015 had an overall passer rating of 88.7, 8 games under 85 and 8 games over. The Vikings were 5-3 when he was over 85 and 6-2 when TB was under it. Is it really so much to ask for Cousins' teammates to step up once in 5 years?But I agree completely with @JR44 . Through 2 seasons with us and about 5 with Washington, he has shown that if he's having an "off day" or starts the game poorly, it's very rare that he can get it back. Other weeks he looks lights out.
To reiterate: Cousins record 2015-19 with a passer rating over 85: 42-13-2. Under 85: 0-22. With the Vikings 2018-19: Over 85 18-5-1 under 85 0-7.
@"RS Express" said:@"pattersaur" said:But I agree completely with @JR44 . Through 2 seasons with us and about 5 with Washington, he has shown that if he's having an "off day" or starts the game poorly, it's very rare that he can get it back. Other weeks he looks lights out.
It may be "rare" for Cousins to get it back after a slow start, but the point was that Kirk's teammates have failed him 100% of the time when he has an off day. Teddy Bridgewater in 2015 had an overall passer rating of 88.7, 8 games under 85 and 8 games over. The Vikings were 5-3 when he was over 85 and 6-2 when TB was under it. Is it really so much to ask for Cousins' teammates to step up once in 5 years?To reiterate: Cousins record 2015-19 with a passer rating over 85: 42-13-2. Under 85: 0-22. With the Vikings 2018-19: Over 85 18-5-1 under 85 0-7.
That is really interesting in terms of the stats regarding Teddy. I actually believe it further shows evidence that there are some QBs who bring out that best in their teammates. While Teddy may not be as talented as Russell Wilson, I see him as having that same type of influence of inspiring his teammates to be better. Personally, that season we went to the playoffs with Teddy was one of my favorites, it seemed as though it was one of the closer teams that we had and I think if it weren't for the shank FG we could have gone deeper into the playoffs. I think the team rallied behind Teddy and played hard for him.Another factor to keep in mind is that we played outside that year, so the passing statistics were definitely effected by the weather. The playoff game against Seattle was one of the coldest in playoff history.
The Gary Kubiak Offense sure seems like it fits Cousins game.
I think the conclusion about Cousins' teammates failing him every time he has a passer rating under 85 is too simplistic. Each game is different.
Look at the first Packer game last year. He had a 52.9 passer rating. He fumbled while being sacked and down 14-0. The Packers scored two plays later.
They get the ball at the 40 yard line in the 2nd quarter and he throws an interception that the Packers could not convert.
In the 4th quarter he drives the team down the field only to throw an interception from the 8 yard line on 1st and goal.
This is just one game. Not all the games will be like this one but it reveals how misleading the 0-22 stat really is.
The reality is that they extended him and if they keep him past the 3rd day of the start of the 2021 season his entire 2022 salary is guaranteed and that comes with a 45 mil cap hit in 2022.
If the cap would go up to around 227 mil (as overthecap speculates) then maybe that is not a huge number. But with the current pandemic likely going to affect game day revenue, the cap in 2021 and 2022 will likely be affected.
What if the owners and players agree to keep the cap as is at 198.2 mil for the 2021 and 2022 season?
Then, that 45 mil is going to be HUGE.
The only option would be to extend him again which I would really hate.
He does not make enough plays on his own when things around go haywire. He just doesn't and he makes a ton of money.
I'd love to see the offensive attack we had in the middle quarters of the season last all year long. Kirk was absolutely killin' it! Top in the game in certain stretches without much debate.
What we were doing offensively in the first quarter of the season and then brought back out vs. Green Bay that 2nd game was garbage. If it was not a Kirk problem but purely a game planning problem, maybe the sky is the limit next year for Kirk.
For me, it wasn't apparent in real time that it was a gameplanning issue; Kirk started slow and got hot at the flip of a switch. I think I felt as if he was grasping the offense and starting to make plays. When we brought back the GB gameplan though, it's probably an issue where Kevin had a plan, reverted, and then decided we were ready to actually execute his intended attack.
I think we will see an improved Kirk if Dalvin can stay healthy and the left guard play improves. I expect a pretty good offense. My main worry is on the defensive side of the ball.
But honestly, right now I just hope they have a season. We could use a little diversion from the world we currently occupy!
I'm in the camp that thinks that top shelf QBs make the players around them better even if they aren't having a great day. The players know that at any minute, the elite QB can turn it around and make those few key plays that win the game, and as a result they try hard all the time. With mediocre QBs, the teammates lose their belief that they can win. They don't try as hard and that seals their fate.
I'm not sure the Bridgewater comparison is 100% apples to apples, because those teams were built around the running game, and they knew that winning was on them. Every Cousins team has been built around Cousins throwing for 4000 yards a year, except maybe 2019.
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