Frederick: Vikings are rebuilding, but it could be short
Despite all the buildup and hypothesizing
about what they could do with that bounty of draft picks — which only
grew as the draft progressed — there was no trade for Trent Williams, no
deal for Odell Beckham Jr., not even a major move up the draft board.
Instead, Rick Spielman started Minnesota’s rebuild the old-fashioned way, one pick at a time.
Yeah, I said it — “rebuild.” A soft one, anyway.
What
other word could you use for a team that entered a specific draft
needing to find at least three or four starters to replenish a roster
that lost numerous veterans this offseason? Call it a “retooling” if
that helps you sleep better.
That word, rebuild, has such a
negative connotation, especially here in Minnesota, where the
Timberwolves have “rebuilt” four or five times over a 15-year span
without ever actually “building” toward anything.
But there are proper ways to rebuild.
One
key to a good rebuild is starting it on time. Minnesota hit the mark
there. Spielman and Mike Zimmer could’ve looked at this past season, one
in which the Vikings knocked a Super Bowl contender out of the
playoffs, and said, “Hey, we’re close, let’s do our best to run it
back.”
With the past few seasons
tabbed “Super Bowl or bust,” and Zimmer’s job security was questioned
late in last year’s campaign, that would have been the easy answer. The
pressure to contend is high.
But in
the week that followed Minnesota’s humbling divisional-round loss to San
Francisco, Zimmer acknowledged football is “a young man’s game” and the
Vikings quickly began dumping underachieving veterans making too much
money.
Gone are Xavier Rhodes, Everson Griffen (as
of now, anyway), Linval Joseph, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and
Stefon Diggs, among others. Here are free agent signees such as Michael
Pierce and Tajae Sharpe, and a host of draft picks, expected to contend
for starting roles.
The general
consensus is the Vikings’ draft was a home run. They tackled their needs
and often seemed to do so by selecting one of the best players
available, a general manager’s dream.
Justin
Jefferson, Jeff Gladney, Ezra Cleveland and Cameron Dantzler all figure
to contend for starting jobs this season. Perhaps one or two
later-round picks will, as well. But while a good draft often means a
good future, it doesn’t guarantee a good following season.
Jefferson
likely won’t match Diggs’ production in Year 1. Asking Gladney and
Dantzler to be as good as Rhodes, Waynes or Alexander as rookies seems
unfair. Most agree that Cleveland won’t be Minnesota’s starting left
tackle Week 1.
All four early
selections could very well have great careers in purple, in due time. To
simply assume any will be great as rookies — particularly following
what will likely be an offseason with reduced hands-on training and
instruction — is unwise.
But, long term, they could be perfect fits to
grow and build around Minnesota’s younger core, the one that features
Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks, Brian O’Neill, Garrett Bradbury, Mike
Hughes, Irv Smith Jr. and maybe even Dalvin Cook.
That’s
a strong young group that can lead the Vikings into the future under
the guidance of talented veterans like Adan Thielen, Kirk Cousins,
Harrison Smith, Anthony Harris and Anthony Barr, all of whom are in
their primes.
In the next year or two,
the Vikings may determine Cousins is not the quarterback to lead them
to the top. If that’s the case, they should still have a quality roster
with which the next quarterback can work, and win.
In
one offseason, the Vikings’ roster moved from aging to well balanced.
Such a transformation may cause a few early bumps, but there’s no reason
to panic if that’s indeed the case. Struggles figure to be short-lived
and could be immediately followed by another extended window of
contention beginning as soon as 2021.
A properly executed rebuild doesn’t last forever.
Its hard not to think this might be a mini-reset this season: lots of starters are gone.
I knew we'd lose Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Joseph and Mack. That was a foregone conclusion. I also thought we'd not be able to keep Harris. So I thought going into the offseason that our defense was going to suck so bad in 2020 that we would have to add a piece or two to our already very good offense and just outscore everyone.
Two things happened since then: we lost Diggs and we had a fantastic draft.
Now, things look a little different. Jefferson won't come close to replacing Diggs, but the WR position is sure better than I thought it could be after losing Diggs. The line should be better as well.
And the defense...hmm...suddenly doesn't look too bad. Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Mack and Joseph are now Odenigbo, Hughes, Gladney, Dantzler and Pierce. Certainly young and probably poised to make a lot of mistakes, but our corner play last year was atrocious. It's not so crazy to think we might have upgraded.
And if you're going to rebuild/retool, it's convenient to do so in a season that might be shortened or even canceled.
@"MaroonBells" said: I knew we'd lose Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Joseph and Mack. That was a foregone conclusion. I also thought we'd not be able to keep Harris. So I thought going into the offseason that our defense was going to suck so bad in 2020 that we would have to add a piece or two to our already very good offense and just outscore everyone.Two things happened since then: we lost Diggs and we had a fantastic draft.
Now, things look a little different. Jefferson won't come close to replacing Diggs, but the WR position is sure better than I thought it could be after losing Diggs. The line should be better as well.
And the defense...hmm...suddenly doesn't look too bad. Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Mack and Joseph are now Odenigbo, Hughes, Gladney, Dantzler and Pierce. Certainly young and probably poised to make a lot of mistakes, but our corner play last year was atrocious. It's not so crazy to think we might have upgraded.
until they fix the 3T position with a real disrupting presence I think our coverage is going to suffer regardless of changing DBs.
@"JimmyinSD" said:Agree with both of you guys. Today's NFL allows for about a one offseason rebuild (sort of kidding- OK maybe 2). You need some of your current players to take a big jump and usually a rookie or two to start and play decent at least.@"MaroonBells" said: I knew we'd lose Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Joseph and Mack. That was a foregone conclusion. I also thought we'd not be able to keep Harris. So I thought going into the offseason that our defense was going to suck so bad in 2020 that we would have to add a piece or two to our already very good offense and just outscore everyone.Two things happened since then: we lost Diggs and we had a fantastic draft.
Now, things look a little different. Jefferson won't come close to replacing Diggs, but the WR position is sure better than I thought it could be after losing Diggs. The line should be better as well.
And the defense...hmm...suddenly doesn't look too bad. Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Mack and Joseph are now Odenigbo, Hughes, Gladney, Dantzler and Pierce. Certainly young and probably poised to make a lot of mistakes, but our corner play last year was atrocious. It's not so crazy to think we might have upgraded.
until they fix the 3T position with a real disrupting presence I think our coverage is going to suffer regardless of changing DBs.That said, Marron I feel the same way after this offseason is almost said and done (free agents). We knew who we were going to lose in free agency about two years ago never mind this year. I will say that I was hoping to keep Mac but the injury in the Bears game supposedly set in stone him moving on.
So if guys like Odin (changed to the Viking God) and Hughes can step up as vets and Gladney starts and does well our Defense can actually be better - mainly because as you pointed out our secondary/CB's were bad last year and really bad at the end of the year.
Then on offense we really only need Jefferson to play up to rookie expectations because we have so many weapons.
Now the interior OL remains my biggest concern even after these pieces fall into line. We are all hoping what we have that someone will step up that didn't last year or I guess Free agency. Free agency does not seem to have anyone that can be our answer from my novice opinion.
But the scenario that you guys paint can certainly happen in one offseason. As diehard fans many of us only focus on the guys we lost but forget some studs we still have on both sides of the ball.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said: I knew we'd lose Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Joseph and Mack. That was a foregone conclusion. I also thought we'd not be able to keep Harris. So I thought going into the offseason that our defense was going to suck so bad in 2020 that we would have to add a piece or two to our already very good offense and just outscore everyone.Two things happened since then: we lost Diggs and we had a fantastic draft.
Now, things look a little different. Jefferson won't come close to replacing Diggs, but the WR position is sure better than I thought it could be after losing Diggs. The line should be better as well.
And the defense...hmm...suddenly doesn't look too bad. Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Mack and Joseph are now Odenigbo, Hughes, Gladney, Dantzler and Pierce. Certainly young and probably poised to make a lot of mistakes, but our corner play last year was atrocious. It's not so crazy to think we might have upgraded.
until they fix the 3T position with a real disrupting presence I think our coverage is going to suffer regardless of changing DBs.
I think just the fact that we have pass rushers ready to compete for the 3T position helps. Stephen, if he makes the team, is a disciplined gap player who's OK against the run, but doesn't offer anything in terms of getting to the passer. If one of Lynch, Watts, Mata'afa (pass rushers all) can beat him out, the pass rush should be improved. Of course, we might lose something in run defense.I think the bigger problem in 2020 will be replacing the pressure we got from Griffen. Offenses will likely just roll protection over to Hunter. Not sure we have the threat on the other side to discourage that.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said: I knew we'd lose Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Joseph and Mack. That was a foregone conclusion. I also thought we'd not be able to keep Harris. So I thought going into the offseason that our defense was going to suck so bad in 2020 that we would have to add a piece or two to our already very good offense and just outscore everyone.Two things happened since then: we lost Diggs and we had a fantastic draft.
Now, things look a little different. Jefferson won't come close to replacing Diggs, but the WR position is sure better than I thought it could be after losing Diggs. The line should be better as well.
And the defense...hmm...suddenly doesn't look too bad. Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Mack and Joseph are now Odenigbo, Hughes, Gladney, Dantzler and Pierce. Certainly young and probably poised to make a lot of mistakes, but our corner play last year was atrocious. It's not so crazy to think we might have upgraded.
until they fix the 3T position with a real disrupting presence I think our coverage is going to suffer regardless of changing DBs.
I think just the fact that we have pass rushers ready to compete for the 3T position helps. Stephen, if he makes the team, is a disciplined gap player who's OK against the run, but doesn't offer anything in terms of getting to the passer. If one of Lynch, Watts, Mata'afa (pass rushers all) can beat him out, the pass rush should be improved. Of course, we might lose something in run defense.I think the bigger problem in 2020 will be replacing the pressure we got from Griffen. Offenses will likely just roll protection over to Hunter. Not sure we have the threat on the other side to discourage that.
Mataafa is lightening, but doesnt strike near often enough and seems to wear down to quickly to be a 3 down guy, ( his added weight could be a difference maker there, or a hindrance, time will tell) which IMO will be key to solidifying our D, we have to be good on all 3 downs and having to choose between run d and pass d on first down or other unpredictable situations was the Achilles heel last year IMO. Watts has some potential, but to date unrealized. Lynch is in the same mold as Mataafa IMO, likley will be a little light to hold up on run downs, but I hope I am wrong.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said: I knew we'd lose Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Joseph and Mack. That was a foregone conclusion. I also thought we'd not be able to keep Harris. So I thought going into the offseason that our defense was going to suck so bad in 2020 that we would have to add a piece or two to our already very good offense and just outscore everyone.Two things happened since then: we lost Diggs and we had a fantastic draft.
Now, things look a little different. Jefferson won't come close to replacing Diggs, but the WR position is sure better than I thought it could be after losing Diggs. The line should be better as well.
And the defense...hmm...suddenly doesn't look too bad. Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Mack and Joseph are now Odenigbo, Hughes, Gladney, Dantzler and Pierce. Certainly young and probably poised to make a lot of mistakes, but our corner play last year was atrocious. It's not so crazy to think we might have upgraded.
until they fix the 3T position with a real disrupting presence I think our coverage is going to suffer regardless of changing DBs.
I think just the fact that we have pass rushers ready to compete for the 3T position helps. Stephen, if he makes the team, is a disciplined gap player who's OK against the run, but doesn't offer anything in terms of getting to the passer. If one of Lynch, Watts, Mata'afa (pass rushers all) can beat him out, the pass rush should be improved. Of course, we might lose something in run defense.I think the bigger problem in 2020 will be replacing the pressure we got from Griffen. Offenses will likely just roll protection over to Hunter. Not sure we have the threat on the other side to discourage that.
Mataafa is lightening, but doesnt strike near often enough and seems to wear down to quickly to be a 3 down guy, ( his added weight could be a difference maker there, or a hindrance, time will tell) which IMO will be key to solidifying our D, we have to be good on all 3 downs and having to choose between run d and pass d on first down or other unpredictable situations was the Achilles heel last year IMO. Watts has some potential, but to date unrealized. Lynch is in the same mold as Mataafa IMO, likley will be a little light to hold up on run downs, but I hope I am wrong.
Actually, he put on weight recently...so he's not...lighting...
@"BarrNone55" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said: I knew we'd lose Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Joseph and Mack. That was a foregone conclusion. I also thought we'd not be able to keep Harris. So I thought going into the offseason that our defense was going to suck so bad in 2020 that we would have to add a piece or two to our already very good offense and just outscore everyone.Two things happened since then: we lost Diggs and we had a fantastic draft.
Now, things look a little different. Jefferson won't come close to replacing Diggs, but the WR position is sure better than I thought it could be after losing Diggs. The line should be better as well.
And the defense...hmm...suddenly doesn't look too bad. Griff, Rhodes, Waynes, Mack and Joseph are now Odenigbo, Hughes, Gladney, Dantzler and Pierce. Certainly young and probably poised to make a lot of mistakes, but our corner play last year was atrocious. It's not so crazy to think we might have upgraded.
until they fix the 3T position with a real disrupting presence I think our coverage is going to suffer regardless of changing DBs.
I think just the fact that we have pass rushers ready to compete for the 3T position helps. Stephen, if he makes the team, is a disciplined gap player who's OK against the run, but doesn't offer anything in terms of getting to the passer. If one of Lynch, Watts, Mata'afa (pass rushers all) can beat him out, the pass rush should be improved. Of course, we might lose something in run defense.I think the bigger problem in 2020 will be replacing the pressure we got from Griffen. Offenses will likely just roll protection over to Hunter. Not sure we have the threat on the other side to discourage that.
Mataafa is lightening, but doesnt strike near often enough and seems to wear down to quickly to be a 3 down guy, ( his added weight could be a difference maker there, or a hindrance, time will tell) which IMO will be key to solidifying our D, we have to be good on all 3 downs and having to choose between run d and pass d on first down or other unpredictable situations was the Achilles heel last year IMO. Watts has some potential, but to date unrealized. Lynch is in the same mold as Mataafa IMO, likley will be a little light to hold up on run downs, but I hope I am wrong.
Actually, he put on weight recently...so he's not...lighting...
he may still be... will remain to be seen how much if any quicks he lost in his transformation. Like I said, that weight could be a difference maker or a career killer.
I think that Watts is a guy the team is very under the radar excited about.
Some of us were saying this weeks ago. Honestly, it wasn't until Geoff used the '1 Step Back to take 2 Steps Forward ' analogy that I think folks started to understand where JL, Mark and myself as well as others were coming from.
I can't think of one single team ever that lost 7 Starters and several Contributors that didn't take a step back.
It's been the convenient move to go Player by Player and point out that on whole the upgrades look better than what was lost. Folks, if Sports actually worked that way how come franchises that go bonkers in Free Agency and get dubbed Super Teams almost always stink?
It's chemistry. Plain and simple. 3 New Starters at CB. 2 have some reps, with Hughes having far more than Hill. Gladney will be brand new. Dantzler needs to add some weight but should also contribute. They may look as good or better than overpaying for Rhodes/Waynes/Alexamder, may even have more upside and are one hell of a lot cheaper. But they will have little to no chemistry or continuity. With each other. With Harris & Smith. With Kendricks and Barr.
You can say the exact same thing about the Defensive Line. Pierce is new. Odenigbo has a lot of snaps, all over the Line, not solely at RDE. According to Daily Norseman the team is much higher on Shamar than we are. Lynch, Wonnum and Wellekes are Rookies. There will be chemistry issues.
And it's worse because of the truncated offseason. Much worse. There are going to be busted assignments. Blown coverages. Mistakes and growing pains.
No way does a Defense that ranked 5th in Scoring lose 5 Starters, a rotational DE and both backup Safeties and stay at the same level. The run Defense should be better. The Pass Rush will be worse. The Secondary will be up and down as it learns on the fly.
The Offense is in better shape but did nothing to address it's most glaring weakness: LG. And it may have created another one at RG. Cleveland should not be rushed into Starting. Teams that are contending do that. Minnesota is not contending this year. Let him work his way into the role when he's ready.
JJ, Sharpe, Bisi and Irv will replace a lot of Diggs' production but don't threaten teams vertically like he did. Minnesota will need longer drives into stacked boxes without the PAP Bombs to back them up. Kubiak will dial up shots to Adam. But you don't want your marquee Receiver who's over 30 and coming off a hammy going vertical too often. JJ and Hollins will get some looks too. But they simply won't have the chemistry with Cousins. We already saw Kirk trying to connect with Hollins deep a few times last year without much luck.
Here again is where a limited offseason hurts. If Cousins had a regular offseason to work with his deep threat weapons it would help mitigate the loss of Stefon. It's simply not going to happen.
Fits and starts. Some surprising wins, especially later in the season. Some painfully surprising losses, including some ugly ones, earlier in the year. Just like the article said. If we even get a season at all.
I'm sure by Week 1 80% of the Forum will have talked themselves into Minnesota being a serious contender again. A lot of you are already doing it. Love the enthusiasm! I prefer to stay more Realistic. I don't expect them to make the Playoffs, though they might push for the 7th seed with a late season run. I expect it and am fine with it. Looking forward to seeing growth from all the young talent. 1 Step Back to take 2 Steps Forward!
It's reasonable to expect the team to take a step back this year, especially since we are adding so many young players under less than ideal circumstances. I really hope that the Vikings have a strong plan for virtual coaching. I agree that not addressing LG is baffling. Maybe they value developmental players on the roster more than fans do, but it was a missed opportunity. It does scare me if they value Shamar highly. He's a very average player, who does not offer much of anything on passing downs. I still think they should have double dipped at WR, but Sharpe & Bisi are solid depth and I do think Jefferson can be a vertical threat. Not having time to develop timing with Cousins hurts, but everyone is going to be in the same boat & it's going to be a weird season. I think you might see some teams adapt well to the current conditions, but not be able to sustain it once things level off to a new normal.
@"FSUVike" said: Love the enthusiasm! I prefer to stay more Realistic.
Pessimism is no closer to realism than optimism. Yet pessimists ALWAYS think of themselves as "realists." The one with the facts is the one who is more realistic. Many times that's the optimist.
I think your default take tends toward worst case. What's more, I don't even know who you're talking to. I haven't heard anyone on this board predict Super Bowl or even improvement from these Vikings. Just a lot of "hey, look we may not be as bad as we thought!" Which, for some reason, seems to get your typewriter heated up.
But here's my default take. And it's always been this. Everyone in the NFL is a serious contender. I genuinely believe that every team in the NFL, whether they went 16-0 or 0-16, is a few additions or subtractions away from 8-8. It's parity in the NFL. It's why so many teams go from 4-12 to 13-3 in one season (like the 49ers did last year). It's not the 80s anymore, FSU. Happens all the time now. Next year it will be the Bucs. Watch. It's why nobody ever gets their Super Bowl predictions right. And speaking of Super Bowls, I'll bet you a box of toilet paper that the Vikings starting guards in 2020 will be better qualified than any of the four starting guards in last year's Super Bowl. Don't take the bet, because it's just a fact.
See, that's where the tell is in perspective. Super Bowl was played with starting guards who were as follows: a league average 6th rounder, a journeyman on his 4th team who has since moved on, a former Lion bust who the 49ers got for a 5th rounder, and a 7th round nobody who was on his 8th team in 9 years, now on his 9th in 10. Yet the Vikings will be choosing between two 1st rounders (Reiff and Cleveland) at left guard and will likely start a 2nd year 4th rounder at right guard. Do ya see what I mean about perspective?
@"MaroonBells" said:@"FSUVike" said: Love the enthusiasm! I prefer to stay more Realistic.
Pessimism is no closer to realism than optimism. Yet pessimists ALWAYS think of themselves as "realists." The one with the facts is the one who is more realistic. Many times that's the optimist.I think your default take tends toward worst case. What's more, I don't even know who you're talking to. I haven't heard anyone on this board predict Super Bowl or even improvement from these Vikings. Just a lot of "hey, look we may not be as bad as we thought!" Which, for some reason, seems to get your typewriter heated up.
But here's my default take. And it's always been this. Everyone in the NFL is a serious contender. I genuinely believe that every team in the NFL, whether they went 16-0 or 0-16, is a few additions or subtractions away from 8-8. It's parity in the NFL. It's why so many teams go from 4-12 to 13-3 in one season (like the 49ers did last year). It's not the 80s anymore, FSU. Happens all the time now. Next year it will be the Bucs. Watch. It's why nobody ever gets their Super Bowl predictions right. And speaking of Super Bowls, I'll bet you a box of toilet paper that the Vikings starting guards in 2020 will be better qualified than any of the four starting guards in last year's Super Bowl. Don't take the bet, because it's just a fact.
See, that's where the tell is in perspective. Super Bowl was played with starting guards who were as follows: a league average 6th rounder, a journeyman on his 4th team who has since moved on, a former Lion bust who the 49ers got for a 5th rounder, and a 7th round nobody who was on his 8th team in 9 years, now on his 9th in 10. Yet the Vikings will be choosing between two 1st rounders (Reiff and Cleveland) at left guard and will likely start a 2nd year 4th rounder at right guard. Do ya see what I mean about perspective?
Show me a.single line that wasn't a fact. Am I making up that they lost 7 Starters? Am I making up that Mike will be counting on more Rookies starting or contributing early than he ever has before? Am I making up the chemistry issues with so many new Players and first time Starters?You're assuming. A lot. You're assuming Samia and whomever, solely by virtue of where they were Drafted, will be better than the Super Bowl Teams OGs. Assuming Rick starts Cleveland as a Rookie. Assuming Diggs production will be replaced by a Rookie, a TE and a Toer 3 FA. Assuming the D-Line doesn't regress.
Your schtick is easy to read. You won't debate point by point. You pick a single item, present your Assumption as Proof of Fact, then declare yourself the winner of the entire debate.
You're also a classic 'see what you want to see'. JL, Mark and others said before and after the Draft that the team was going backwards. And posters pooh-poohed them each time. Shit, there's a thread up right now with posters showing outrage that GB is still considered by the Media to be the team to beat in the Norris.
You're absolutely entitled to your point of view. I 1,000% hope you're right about all of it. You're also so fucking sure about every single one of your assumptions that you seem to take it personally when others disagree. Seriously, who responds more to posts predicting a downturn, you or BN? You're both smart, funny guys that seem to have decided that you're Forum Cops elected to enforce purple koolaid consumption. Good for you. Won't stop any of who aren't drinking the water from stating our opinions. Probably just keeps us committed to providing the perspective that is often lacking here.
There is enough talent and coaching talent to put this team into the playoffs again, potentially winning the division.
If you get anything from the rookies (aka the 2015 class), then this team could run deep. Outside of Diggs, the losses from the roster should be able to be matched performance wise. Piece over Linval, Hill over Rhodes, Cleveland and Reiff over Reiff and Elf.
We still have a dynamic duo at RB and potentially TE. A damn good 1# WR, a great coaching staff (Zim, Patterson, Capers, Kubiak). A pair of stud LBs and safeties, a premier DE. A little luck, a little development (Hughes, Fedi, Irv), and this team will be in the thick of it in January in a prospective “down year”.
For those of you that feel like there's less and less room for honest debate, head over to Daily Norseman. It's sort of the Wild West in the comments section but I'll take that over the group think that's crept in around here. Not going to delete my account for now. Don't expect to be posting again any time soon.
@"FSUVike" said: For those of you that feel like there's less and less room for honest debate, head over to Daily Norseman. It's sort of the Wild West in the comments section but I'll take that over the group think that's crept in around here. Not going to delete my account for now. Don't expect to be posting again any time soon.Stick around, I like the counter points. Yeah, there is a vein of Pollyanna here which I've called out occasionally but I've learned that a fan website is going to have that regardless.
I hear there's a grassroots DJ Wonnum fan club over there.
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