BarrNone55™ Swing For The Fences Mock Draft

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"BarrNone55" said: @MaroonBells thank you.

Hill is definitely a risk, but my thought is that 1) we have a CB whisperer in Zim 2) they hung on to Hill through 2 consecutive suspend 3) I think we go to more zone so CB play becomes simpler 4) Kinlaw is the deodorant for the back four

High floor guys was on purpose. No rookie camp. No OTAs. Lots of holes. Jefferson is the perfect example. Top 3 route runner...most pro ready...son of a WR coach...he'll be ready to play. Runyan is another guy...son of a NFL player...can play 4 spots...does Alex Taylor has better upside? Absolutely. Could Taylor compete without a full slate of OTAs? Nfw.

The key to the whole thing is Kinlaw. 

The bold is an excellent point.

And I agree that we're probably going to see a different brand of defense that helps mitigate the loss of some experience. Whether that means more zone or not, I don't know, but something. 

Great job BN! 

My primary thought has become a recurring one: this team is NOT contending next year. 8 contributors (5 Starters, 3 Rotational players) left a Defense that despite the warts was still Top 5 in Scoring and one of the best at generating turnovers last season that Zimmer has had during his tenure in Minnesota. Pierce is an upgrade from Joseph. Zettel is not necessarily even a straight up replacement for Weatherly. Everything else is Rookies and second or third year players with plenty of legit question marks. 

Even if Kinlaw is instantly Donald 2.0 (and I think Chris Jones 2.0 is the better comp) that won't be the 'deodorant' as you like to say that will be a cure all. 

Aaron Donald is the best Defensive Player in football. How's that Rams Defense doing? You know, the one with CBs that are more than proven. 

Even high floor kids are still going to have to learn Zimmer's system with way less reps than normal. Even if it's an easier system to learn because it's far more Zone-oriented. And the kid with the most reps and upside is probably more of a Slot CB anyway. So while I love Robertson he forces Hughes to remain Outside, which doesn't maximize his upside for the team.

Hill, Kirkpatrick, Hughes AND a high Draft Pick MIGHT get you last year's results IF Harris is back to provide that Safety Net on the back end. And it's a way younger, cheaper Unit with tons of potential. 

But Minnesota hasn't signed a veteran CB yet and you traded the Safety Net. Unless Hunter/Kinlaw/Pierce/All Vowels instantly becomes the best Line in the League at generating pressure that Secondary will get picked on. Cuz it's crazy young in terms of snaps played. 

And that's if Odenigbo is who we think he is. And Robinson can provide consistent snaps as a Rookie. And nobody gets hurt, like at all. 

But what about Capers? Limited offseason reps is going to greatly limit whatever cool shit him and Mike were cooking up since he got hired. So that's not a panacea either. 

Even with a veteran FA CB there's far too many unknowns to project this as even a Top 10 Defense any more. You can go player by player and point to the additions overall being better than the subtractions but this is a Team sport. The only layer of the Defense that won't be breaking in new, relatively (or completely unproven) players is the Linebackers. 

So the Offense will step up and save the day! Your new O-Line gives it a chance. But MGO is right, where's the vertical threat? While it's true Thielen is capable of going deep he had the benefit of a 1A on the other side to keep Secondaries honest. And let's be frank, he's an Elite intermediary route runner. Making him your primary deep threat makes as much sense as New Orleans asking Michael Thomas to do the same. They can do it, but it's far from their best use. And Adam is on the wrong side of 30 coming off a hammy. Asking him to be your consistent deep threat is also asking him to become DeSean Jackson 2.0.

Van Jefferson is a demon of a route runner. But he doesn't necessarily create much separation despite that skillset. And he's not fast. Neither is Hodgins. And to be clear, I love both players and would be happy with either or both, because I understand this team isn't contending next year. 

With your proposed WR Corps I'm going to play armchair GM and load the box to stop Cook, double Adam and dare you to make me pay deep with two Rookies that aren't vertical threats. 

Having said all that I love your Draft and your moves, just not your rose-colored prognostications regarding how it will lead to instant success. Kinlaw could easily go at #7. Trading up to snag him is equivalent to seeing a kid you have ranked #12 on your Big Board fall to #22. Ruiz can't be argued with. Really, none of it other than if I'm double-dipping at WR I need a true vertical threat. And knowing I'm 2 years away from competing I'm not trading away Harris or trading for Williams.

If you really do want to compete next year then I fully endorse everything you've done but also add OBJ somehow. That will enable the Offense to make up for the steps backwards the Defense will take.

If I can't compete next year I would like to see a few less 'safe' or 'high floor' kids. Take some chances! Hunter wasn't a safe or high floor pick. Neither was O'Neill. Or Cook. 

Just a few thoughts:

When Zimmer took over in 2014, no one on the D knew or had played in his scheme. That D moved up about 20 spots in points allowed from the prior year. About 20 spots in passing yards too. At each level of the D, we have experienced players to get the newbies up to speed, along with vested coaches. 

Kinlaw doesn't have to be Aaron Donald, but a reasonable facsimile to year 1 Kevin Williams will do just fine. That will be a vast improvement over last year's production.

As far as the O needing a burner, Kubiak's main weapons in Houston were Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, with a healthy dose of balls going to RBs. We were 30th in pass attempts, I don't see that changing much. Load the box, we'll be in 22 or 23 personnel with a vastly improved line and Cook playing for a contract. AD did pretty well with 8-9 men in the box with Christian Ponder as QB. Double Thielen? That's fine, he's beaten doubles before.

@"BarrNone55" said: Just a few thoughts:

When Zimmer took over in 2014, no one on the D knew or had played in his scheme. That D moved up about 20 spots in points allowed from the prior year. About 20 spots in passing yards too. At each level of the D, we have experienced players to get the newbies up to speed, along with vested coaches. 

Kinlaw doesn't have to be Aaron Donald, but a reasonable facsimile to year 1 Kevin Williams will do just fine. That will be a vast improvement over last year's production.

As far as the O needing a burner, Kubiak's main weapons in Houston were Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, with a healthy dose of balls going to RBs. We were 30th in pass attempts, I don't see that changing much. Load the box, we'll be in 22 or 23 personnel with a vastly improved line and Cook playing for a contract. AD did pretty well with 8-9 men in the box with Christian Ponder as QB. Double Thielen? That's fine, he's beaten doubles before.

He also inherited Smith, Everson and Rhodes. Smith is no longer Smith and you just traded away his heir apparent. Hunter may be better than Griff but Odenigbo is no B-Rob. There is nothing on the Roster to compare to Rhodes in any meaningful way. 

No matter how you slice it there will be 5 new Starters and 3 new contributors on Defense next year. It's highly likely 6 or 7 are either 1st, 2nd or 3rd year Players. With a limited offseason. They will be green, have huge upside, and make a lot of mistakes. 

Andre Johnson could go deep. He wasn't just a Possession WR. And Kubiak's Houston teams had shit QBs. Thielen has beaten double teams. But more often than not they limited him. Just as they limited Diggs. Whatever you thought about the person, the injuries or anything else you simply can't objectively deny the impact Stefon had on the deep passing game and how it helped the running game and Adam.

I've been down on Hamler because I don't like his hands. Not the drops, per se. A lot of that was concentration, which can be fixed. It's his hand placement. Even KJ has admitted he has had issues with getting his hands aligned correctly on a consistent basis. And the body catches are a little too prevalent. And he's strictly a Slot guy.

Having said all that I'd love to have him because he can challenge the Top of the Defense as a Rookie just like Will Fuller did his first year. And Hamler is a far more dynamic route runner than Fuller with the added benefit of not costing a 1st. That allows you to use Hodgins as more of a Possession and Jump Ball guy who can occasionally set you up and go long.

At this point I'm not sure there's going to be a straight up eventual replacement for Diggs unless Jeudy, Lamb or Jefferson falls. Getting a guy to challenge deep and a guy that has other traits is pretty appetizing to me. Just hate not getting Adam's eventual replacement in a Draft with 3 legit WR1. But there are too many holes to move up to get one versus moving up to fix 3T or LT for 7+ years.

Zimmer inherited a D that was 32nd in points allowed, and 31st in yards.

Yes, Odenigbo is no BRob. He just put up 7 sacks in about 350 snaps. BRob's best season was 9.5 IIRC.

We both agree we are headed towards more zone, so your comment about Rhodes is not germane.

For his career, Kubiak throws to the TE about a quarter of the time. 

Hamler or Shenault might be a better option than Jefferson.

Chinn is a bigger Harris and Smith's eventual replacement

Just my 2 cents

BRob was always more about pressures than just sack numbers, as you yourself used to point out all the time. Hunter is greater than Griff from Mike's first season. Projecting Ifeadi to be as good as BRob is not outlandish, but it's a bit of a stretch.

Rhodes was taylormade to play Man Coverage in a Zimmer scheme. Zimmer is shifting to more Zone, maybe even Cover 3 with the addition of the new DBs Coach and Capers, who are both Cover 3 guys. Don't know how you can say Hughes is taylormade for a scheme that is To Be Determined. 

But all that aside, you are counting on what, 4 new Starters from 1 Draft? 5 if you count Robertson as a Starter. Has Rick ever found that many Starters? Once. That's the Waynes/Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs Draft. Except Waynes only started 1 game as a Rookie. Kendricks started 11. Hunter started 1. Diggs started 9.

4 Starters. Not one actually Started from Day 1. And not one other Contributor from that Draft unless you count TJ Clemmings' Art Installations as a Matador as really contributing.

This is not a knock on that Draft. Any GM in the League would take that to the bank. For some it would outdo their best 2 drafts combined. 

Another measure would be how many players has Rick Drafted that were Day 1 Starters since 2012.. Harrison, Kalil, Barr, Bridgewater, Cook, Elf, Bradbury and Irv. 8 in 7 years and you're projecting 4 in 1. And for every kid who got pressed into duty as a Rookie ala Bisi you have at least 5 to 6 from the same Round that never made any meaningful contribution to the team whatsoever. Which makes it hard to believe the team is also going to walk away with contributors at DE and CB.

Look, you did as good as any Mock can do. Kinlaw and Ruiz are instant Starters, IMO. That alone is an absolute Home Run for any GM. It bucks Rick's history to believe he walks away with a third Starter. And I mean a quality Starter. Not someone pressed into dury as a Rookie because the team legitimately doesn't have anyone else to start. Which is what teams that stink do.

Best Case Scenario is that Hughes/Hill/Boyd are able to survive in Cover 3 and 2. In part because Hunter, Kinlaw and Odenigbo are a terror. And there's zero injuries at CB or DE. Because now you're bucking history and asking for 2 Starters (Kinlaw+Chinn) AND at least 1 Contributor on Defense from a single Draft (Robertson or Robinson). Just on the Defensive side of the ball alone you're counting on Rick's best Draft ever.

The Offense has a fixed Line and will be tough to handle in the run game. But still doesn't scare teams over the top like last year's team did. Sharpe is the Starter. If Jefferson or Hodgins beat him out or played in damn near every game you're now approaching HOF HOF Drafting status for Spielman.

The team will doubtlessly make some more FA moves. Rick isn't as optimistic as you are about his drafting prowess, which are actually one of his best strengths. He knows he can't count on that much instant production from that many Rookies. He's also broke. Kirkpatrick maybe. More than that? It will be guys that have been hurt needing to reestablish themselves, and most of what's left is old, and Tier 3 guys. Which means not all the holes get filled this offseason. 

Il love your Draft. If it happened exactly this way it would be beyond believable. Your projection of what it will do in Year 1 is simply not in line with anything Rick, or even really many GMs at all, has ever done. And this isn't the first time he's had this many picks into the Top 105 or so range. The last time didn't quite work out so well.

If you could take Ricks place on thursday I would be a happy man))>

One last thought. Neither Zim or Rick are under contract beyond the current year. High floor guys will be at a premium. Courtney Cronin mentioned future picks might be in play. 

Ok, now my last thought: Jefferson didn't have a bunch of 20+ yard receptions, but it wasn't due to lack of speed.

Florida WR @VanJefferson12 couldn’t run the 40 at Combine (foot injury) but @ZebraTechnology had him as fastest player at the @seniorbowl with max speed of 21.05 mph, which is faster than Devin Duvernay (20.90/4.39), Denzel Mims (20.26/4.38), and Antonio Gibson (20.15/4.39).

@"BarrNone55" said: One last thought. Neither Zim or Rick are under contract beyond the current year. High floor guys will be at a premium. Courtney Cronin mentioned future picks might be in play. 

Allowing the current regime-- who they're apparently not confident enough in to extend beyond this season-- to raid future drafts for picks would be reeeeeeeeeeally dumb.
If the Vikings do trade away any future picks of significance, that will signal to me that RS and the Wilfs already have some sort of handshake deal in place for an extension.

@"BarrNone55" said: @dadevike I believe he tweaked it Senior Bowl week, maybe prior. I don't think it's anything degenerative or chronic. But, if he gets passed SF there could be something to that...

I heard someone say tendinitis.  I suppose there are degrees of tendinitis.  I just think back to Floyd. Just a simple knee procedure they said. ... 

@"MaroonBells" said: OK, first of all, I love that you were able to move up 10 spots for Kinlaw AND acquire Trent Williams without losing a single damn 2020 pick. 

Also, I like the tone of the draft. I tend to favor safer players in the draft and most of the players you draft here are very safe, high floor players--Ruiz, Jefferson, Hodges, Robertson, Runyan. 

Love the idea of solving the line in one day. Williams, Ruiz, Bradbury would be one helluva left side.

What I don't like is that you're sending us into the season with Holton Hill as a starting CB. It's not crazy to think he could do that, but I don't think we can count on him. I'd feel much better drafting a starting outside corner. 

MB, I agree with your concerns on Hill and the CB's on this roster. If you want a plug and play outside corner you won't be able to make that second trade. I love Ruiz and think he would be a huge upgrade to our interior O'Line, but I would be concerned to pull the trigger again at #25 and miss out on either a starting defensive end in Gross-Matos if he is still there, or a starting outside corner like Jaylon Johnson. Not a big Gladney fan since he projects to the inside and I think that is where Hughes is a better fit. Looks like JJ is ahead of schedule with his off season recovery from a torn labrum which I think has kept his draft stock down a little. Of course that could all be draft rumors from his agent to get him taken in the first round. 

@TBro @MaroonBells If I got you guys some primo bud, would you be less concerned?

@"BarrNone55" said: @TBro @MaroonBells If I got you guys some primo bud, would you be less concerned?

Thanks, but I'm not that concerned with your draft. Adding Kinlaw to the line would do a lot to fix our pass defense and make me feel better about Odenigbo as an every down starter. He would have a bigger impact than any corner we take in the first round. I like your creativity. If we can get Williams without giving up a pick in this year's draft that is a huge win. I have concerns about him but I'm willing to take that risk. I do like Cleveland though and would not hesitate to grab him at 25. If we stayed put, I would take Gross-Matos at 22 and Cleveland at 25. 

@"TBro" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: OK, first of all, I love that you were able to move up 10 spots for Kinlaw AND acquire Trent Williams without losing a single damn 2020 pick. 

Also, I like the tone of the draft. I tend to favor safer players in the draft and most of the players you draft here are very safe, high floor players--Ruiz, Jefferson, Hodges, Robertson, Runyan. 

Love the idea of solving the line in one day. Williams, Ruiz, Bradbury would be one helluva left side.

What I don't like is that you're sending us into the season with Holton Hill as a starting CB. It's not crazy to think he could do that, but I don't think we can count on him. I'd feel much better drafting a starting outside corner. 

MB, I agree with your concerns on Hill and the CB's on this roster. If you want a plug and play outside corner you won't be able to make that second trade. I love Ruiz and think he would be a huge upgrade to our interior O'Line, but I would be concerned to pull the trigger again at #25 and miss out on either a starting defensive end in Gross-Matos if he is still there, or a starting outside corner like Jaylon Johnson. Not a big Gladney fan since he projects to the inside and I think that is where Hughes is a better fit. Looks like JJ is ahead of schedule with his off season recovery from a torn labrum which I think has kept his draft stock down a little. Of course that could all be draft rumors from his agent to get him taken in the first round. 

@"TBro" said:

@"BarrNone55" said: @TBro @MaroonBells If I got you guys some primo bud, would you be less concerned?

Thanks, but I'm not that concerned with your draft. Adding Kinlaw to the line would do a lot to fix our pass defense and make me feel better about Odenigbo as an every down starter. He would have a bigger impact than any corner we take in the first round. I like your creativity. If we can get Williams without giving up a pick in this year's draft that is a huge win. I have concerns about him but I'm willing to take that risk. I do like Cleveland though and would not hesitate to grab him at 25. If we stayed put, I would take Gross-Matos at 22 and Cleveland at 25. 

Nailed it.

@"purplefaithful" said: Hard to bitch about Kinlaw, Ruiz and Williams...

But I would sleep better addressing CB earlier and not hoping they have to scheme to protect too much. 

There's just no pleasing you...

First you complain about not enough corners, then when they draft a bunch of corners you complain some more... :p