NFLDG Mock Draft 2.0
Took a little longer than I had hoped, but here is mock 2.0. My hope is to publish an additional mock later this week with a final version by draft day. We will see what time allows for, but hope you enjoy! As always this is not exact and plays around with different names to allow all of you to learn about additional players in the draft class and who potential could fit the Vikings needs come draft day.
1(22) - TRADE: Instead of trading up in this mock the Vikings opt to trade back in the 1st round with Baltimore trading picks 1(22) & 6(201) for 1(28) & 3(92). Come draft day the 22nd pick may end up being a trade-up hot spot. If Jordan Love remains on the board team in the top of the 2nd may want to get ahead of both New Orleans & New England. Aside from Love this is also a spot for a LB ahead of two LB hungry teams. If the Vikings let the draft come to them I don't think it will be difficult to find a trade partner, which is half the battle in trading down.
1(25) - Josh Jones (OT / Houston): I am always a bit leery about non Power-5 OT's, but Jones has been the epitome of consistent for the Cougars and the Senior proved just that. Jones is a natural mover on the left side with the athleticism to get onto the second level without laboring. His technique will need some work and he'll be taken for a ride at times early in his career due to this. But he is a day 1 starter at LT which has tremendous value in round 1. If he can improve his technique his potential isn't far off from the top-tier of OTs this draft class offers.
1(28) via BAL - Jaylon Johnson (CB / Utah): Here is a guy who may surprise come draft day and have his name called in the late teens. After Henderson & Okudah the 2nd tier of CBs is a choose your flavor exercise and will be very scheme dependent. Johnson boasts great athleticism and the physicality to play press-man, bump & run, and play off coverage with enough contact to nag the receiver. He is a plug & play starter on the outside, which is an immediate need. He will need to adapt his game to the NFL level since he wants to bully receivers down the field. This will be his biggest battle since he occasionally panics when he loses his touch point on the receiver. The good news is that he gets his head around and can play without a visual on the receiver. He likely lacks elite CB1 upside but could end up being a 10 years starter in the league. The Vikings should feel comfortable his him & Hughes on the outside.
2(58) - K.J. Hamler (WR / Penn State): Unless one of the elite WR talents gets in range of pick 22 there will be multiple WRs available to the Vikings in the 2nd round. Depending on how the board falls, the 2nd tier of WRs may end up being suppressed since the tier is so wide. In this mock the Vikings opt to take Hamler. Over the past few years the Vikings have made it a point to draft very young players with high upside. Hamler fits that mold to a 'T'. Although he doesn't naturally track the ball and deal with drops, Hamler is electric with the ball in his hands. Although he likely won't be a natural boundary player he can extend the field vertically from the slot, which is a key in today's pass happy league. He also can take many of the manufactured touches Diggs is leaving from a season ago. To add value he also will be an elite kick & punt returner in the NFL which is an additional area of improvement for MN.
2(59) via SEA - Justin Madubuike (DT / Texas A&M): Another trade! This time the Vikings package their own 3rd round pick #89 along with #92 via BAL to move back into round 2. Although the Vikings were able to replace Linval Joseph with Michael Pierce in free agency they still lack a consistent interior pass rush. Madubuike brings high level twitch and straight line speed to get after the QB and push the pocket. Although undersized, his athleticism pops out on film. He will need to work on getting off the line a bit faster and how to use his hands. If he can do that, watch out. Although he won't immediately be a 3-down contributor he offers a nice compliment to Shamar Stephen who is much more stout.
3(105) - Isaiah Hodgins (WR / Oregon State): The Vikings will need to walk away from this draft class with more than a single receiver and can find value in later round 3 / early round 4. Hodgins is more of your 'X' receiver who you can line up on the outside. He has an outstanding catch radius and has the size to go up and come down with contested catches down the field and in the red zone. Although he is quick in & out of routes he won't win with speed vertically, which limits his high-end upside. But he definitely brings a different flavor to the Vikings WR room which now includes: Thielen, Hamler, Johnson, Hodgins, and Hollins.
4 (132) - K'Von Wallace (S / Clemson): Jayron Kearse player a more meaningful role for the Vikings than most believed, why not take the player who player his exact role at Clemson? Wallace is an all-around DB who is labeled as a safety but can compete as a big nickle back. He isn't "fast" but he has the quickness to keep up with receivers off the line. This pick ultimately comes down to value and the fact that Anthony Harris is only signed to his one year franchise tag. This gives the Vikings and opportunity to bring in competition for the slot while also grooming a potential safety of the future.
5 (155) - Netane Muti (OG / Fresno State): I personally am not a huge fan of drafting big men with lower body injuries, but make an exception here. Over the past 3 years Muti has suffered a barrage of achilles and foot injuries that have kept him off the field. But when he is available, he can sure play. Muti is a powerful blocker but has the athleticism to get out on pulls and seal off the leading edge or backside of run plays. Its really surprising how quick he is for his size, which is even more surprising given his lower body injuries. Now apparently healthy he will get a chance to compete for a starting guard role out of the gate. With Josh Jones likely pushing Reiff inside to LG the Vikings have competition for both guard spots. I also am not a fan to hypotheticals but if you take away the injuries Muti may have been an early day 2 selection.
6 (205) - Josiah Scott (CB / Michigan State): I actually never had watched much of Scott until he caught my eye matched up with K.J. Hamler. If you're a fan of media favorite CB Amik Robertson, you will like Scott. He is an undersized CB who plays much bigger on the field. He plays stick coverage and has the speed/quickness to mirror out of the slot. Where he struggles is with tackling. Some of this is purely due to his lack of size and length. Zimmer has proven to get player to buy into tackling and the hope is he could do the same for Scott. Although strictly limited to the slot he can compete in camp year 1 for snaps. Great value in the later rounds.
7 (239) - James Smith-Williams (DE / NC State): Name a better duo than the MN Vikings coaching staff and late round developmental pass rushers. Smith-Williams brings all of the athleticism you need to the table but lacks ideal length and a pass rushing plan. He likely won't see many snaps in year 1 but offers high upside if the coaching staff can refine some of his rough edges.
7 (249) - Alohi Gilman (S / Notre Dame): Gilman is an interesting prospect who may end up getting chosen higher than this due to certain scheme fits. Overall he is a box safety who plays a highly physical game downhill but lacks the instincts and range to play over the top. He is a great depth safety who can step in if needed and brings a physical presence to the special teams unit. Think of a young Andrew Sendejo.
7 (253) Mohamed Barry (LB / Nebraska): If the MN Vikings and developmental pass rushers are bread & butter, rangy undersized LBs are the next best thing. Barry is a sideline to sideline LB who lacks the size and coverage licks to be a day 1 starter, which makes him a late round draft pick or priority UDFA. Barry can come in day-1 and compete for a spot on special teams but could serve as the eventual replacement for either RFA Eric Wilson or Ben Gedeon.
Another great draft Guru. If I had to nitpick i think both Muti and Scott will go a round earlier, but i would be thrilled if it went down like this.
Probably your best mock of the last three years. Other than Van Jefferson, Hodgins is my favorite WR. I see a little Sydney Rice in him. If we hit on Muti, we can play some bully ball in the run game.
@"BarrNone55" said: Probably your best mock of the last three years. Other than Van Jefferson, Hodgins is my favorite WR. I see a little Sydney Rice in him. If we hit on Muti, we can play some bully ball in the run game.I think Rice's long speed was still better than Hodgins, but do see some similarities. I'm a big fan of Van Jefferson but think he impedes on Bisi Johnson a bit. Hodgins would bring a different type of receiver to the group.
I like most of it but Hodgins is painfully slow. He only ran 4.61 which is Treadwell territory.
He did not even try to do better at his pro day (I could not find any info of him running again).
He is very good at contested catches which he will have to be because he wont get much separation.
Perhaps the Treadwell experience causes some bias on my part?
Even if true, I do not want any receivers running that slow.
I think Wallace will be a slot corner in the NFL. Wallace had 63 snaps at the deep safety spot, 208 snaps in the box, 396 snaps in the slot corner spot, 7 at the corner spot, and 40 on the defensive line last year.
Man, I watched way too many videos and podcasts last weekend. I came away with 2 observations: from #20 to #60 you're picking the same level of talent and it just depends on what flavor and scheme fit you like. Trading back to maximize what looks like the 'sweet spot' in this Draft is smart thinking.
My other realization is that while everyone agrees this is a historic WR Class, nobody agrees on much else past Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs. And not necessarily even in that order.
I am distinctly not a fan of Hamler. Talk about a kid that needed a Pro Day. Personally don't like him but also don't think you need to pick him at 58. He'll be available much later than that, IMO. I've seen a couple of reviews mock him higher and tons that mock him lower or much lower. So this is my big quibble with an otherwise killer mock.
Madubuike falls that far? Maybe. Again, picks twenty through sixty are about scheme fit and personal opinion as there isn't much separating anyone talent-wise. Muti is a freaking Destroyer. I'd go bonkers if he made it to the 5th. All the medicals reportedly check out, so why not pull the trigger?
My issue with the DE pick is that you're basically presupposing Minnesota adds a Tier 3 FA. While it is certainly true that Dre & Zimmer have crushed it in the late Rounds not one single guy made an impact as a Rookie. And why would you expect raw, freak athletes from the late Rounds or UDFA to do so?
Today Minnesota has Odenigbo, Zettel, and Hunter on their Roster. Zettel seems like a situational pass rusher, not a guy who is going to consistently spell Ifeadi. But even if he is who is going to spell Hunter? Not a late-round kid.
I don't really want to hear about Herc or Holmes or anyone else that hasn't approached Weatherly or Odenigbo in terms of snaps. Herc is a nice story that may get better. Holmes is a bust. Period. There's simply nothing realistically projectable on the Roster at DE right now. Man, if either Bower or Aruna had panned out this wouldn't even be a conversation.
Overall, fantastic job and thanks as always!
I'm not a fan of trading back. I think at 22 you are going to have a top tier WR prospect fall in your lap or at least in range to trade up a bit to land them. The Vikings can not allow teams to stack the box against Cook and make us one dimensional without threatening them on the outside. Ruggs and/or Jefferson should both be in play if all we have to do is jump Philly picking in front of us.
I don't see tackle being as big of a need for us as the interior where we need two starters at both guard positions. I don't like trying to shift Reiff inside at this point in his career and playing musical chairs along the offensive line. We are solid at both tackle spots and center. Upgraded guard play is sorely needed. There are some players in the second and third rounds that can fill those spots.
I love rolling the dice on Muti at that point and think Gilman is a feisty kid that will compete on special teams and can make the roster
Theres only 3 WR I would draft in the first and none of them will make it to us. Lamb, Jeudy and Ruggs, and in the case of Ruggs, only if Jones, Ruiz and Herbert are off the board. WR very rarely make an impact as rookies so they wont help us much this year
Did you leave Sharpe out of the WR room on purpose?
@"BarrNone55" said: Did you leave Sharpe out of the WR room on purpose?No, sigh. That is what happens when you type it up in about 10 minutes lol.
@"supafreak84" said: I'm not a fan of trading back. I think at 22 you are going to have a top tier WR prospect fall in your lap or at least in range to trade up a bit to land them. The Vikings can not allow teams to stack the box against Cook and make us one dimensional without threatening them on the outside. Ruggs and/or Jefferson should both be in play if all we have to do is jump Philly picking in front of us.I don't see tackle being as big of a need for us as the interior where we need two starters at both guard positions. I don't like trying to shift Reiff inside at this point in his career and playing musical chairs along the offensive line. We are solid at both tackle spots and center. Upgraded guard play is sorely needed. There are some players in the second and third rounds that can fill those spots.
I love rolling the dice on Muti at that point and think Gilman is a feisty kid that will compete on special teams and can make the roster
It really depends how the board falls. In my last mock I suggested a trade-up is definitely in play from #22 as well. If one of Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs makes it to say 14, you have to watch them moving up. I don't personally think they'd do it for Jefferson, who I have heard they aren't as high on (but it is lying season). But aside from WR there are about 15 blue-chip prospects in this class and if you can grab one at the expense of using a 3rd round pick to move up, its a good way to allocate your assets.
The reason tackle ends up being a need in my opinion is that you don't "need" a OT now, but you're proactively drafting your future at the position and still can get some use out of Reiff. If not, you're now saving $10+M against this years cap that'll roll over into next year (net savings of $20+M on 2021's cap). You're playing with fire if your eventual plan is to move on from Reiff next season and you have no viable future in the pipeline.
@"FSUVike" said: Man, I watched way too many videos and podcasts last weekend. I came away with 2 observations: from #20 to #60 you're picking the same level of talent and it just depends on what flavor and scheme fit you like. Trading back to maximize what looks like the 'sweet spot' in this Draft is smart thinking.My other realization is that while everyone agrees this is a historic WR Class, nobody agrees on much else past Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs. And not necessarily even in that order.
I am distinctly not a fan of Hamler. Talk about a kid that needed a Pro Day. Personally don't like him but also don't think you need to pick him at 58. He'll be available much later than that, IMO. I've seen a couple of reviews mock him higher and tons that mock him lower or much lower. So this is my big quibble with an otherwise killer mock.
Madubuike falls that far? Maybe. Again, picks twenty through sixty are about scheme fit and personal opinion as there isn't much separating anyone talent-wise. Muti is a freaking Destroyer. I'd go bonkers if he made it to the 5th. All the medicals reportedly check out, so why not pull the trigger?
My issue with the DE pick is that you're basically presupposing Minnesota adds a Tier 3 FA. While it is certainly true that Dre & Zimmer have crushed it in the late Rounds not one single guy made an impact as a Rookie. And why would you expect raw, freak athletes from the late Rounds or UDFA to do so?
Today Minnesota has Odenigbo, Zettel, and Hunter on their Roster. Zettel seems like a situational pass rusher, not a guy who is going to consistently spell Ifeadi. But even if he is who is going to spell Hunter? Not a late-round kid.
I don't really want to hear about Herc or Holmes or anyone else that hasn't approached Weatherly or Odenigbo in terms of snaps. Herc is a nice story that may get better. Holmes is a bust. Period. There's simply nothing realistically projectable on the Roster at DE right now. Man, if either Bower or Aruna had panned out this wouldn't even be a conversation.
Overall, fantastic job and thanks as always!
I like your call out on the DE's. Its a catch-22. Although we could use production there isn't great value where the Vikings are sitting in round 1 and after that everyone has some developmental hurdles to overcome. The DT class runs a bit deeper and you'll likely get more year 1 production. The big question is how much will they come off their athletic thresholds and like Epenesa. He fits what they want to do schematically. The film is also awesome and his power is a true trump card. If he is on the board he may end up being their round 1 selection for both DE and DT.
Good draft. There isn't a player here I don't like. Just some random thoughts...
I know there's a lot of talk about Johnson going in the 1st round but I think the surgery drops him to the 2nd. But he's a great fit for the Vikings.
I see Hamler as the end of that 2nd tier of receivers. You kinda hope for more than that, but that's one hell of a player to be getting in the 50s.
Hard to see Muti dropping that far, but you never know what teams are going to think about several foot injuries.
I have Gilman in all my mocks, but I think he goes two or three rounds ahead of that. Love that you drafted 2 OL, 2 WRs, 2 CBs and 2 Safeties.
@"MaroonBells" said: Good draft. There isn't a player here I don't like. Just some random thoughts...I know there's a lot of talk about Johnson going in the 1st round but I think the surgery drops him to the 2nd. But he's a great fit for the Vikings.
I see Hamler as the end of that 2nd tier of receivers. You kinda hope for more than that, but that's one hell of a player to be getting in the 50s.
Hard to see Muti dropping that far, but you never know what teams are going to think about several foot injuries.
I have Gilman in all my mocks, but I think he goes two or three rounds ahead of that. Love that you drafted 2 OL, 2 WRs, 2 CBs and 2 Safeties.
Agree with all of that. When it comes to CB in round 1 I think the biggest question will be who is off the board by the time #22 rolls around. This is speculation but any of Gladney, Johnson, Fulton likely fills their need. Spielman has shown that he'd rather trade back and get the last of the three on the board than be on the front end of that run. So trading down into the early 2nd and grabbing one of those guys has decent odds.
You read my mind on Hamler. He's not perfect by any means but definitely has value in the 50's. No matter which WR it is I think waiting until round 2 will serve them well. The WR hungry teams in round 1 won't go WR back to back so that will allow some player to trickle down the board. Its kind of inevitable in my mind.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"supafreak84" said: I'm not a fan of trading back. I think at 22 you are going to have a top tier WR prospect fall in your lap or at least in range to trade up a bit to land them. The Vikings can not allow teams to stack the box against Cook and make us one dimensional without threatening them on the outside. Ruggs and/or Jefferson should both be in play if all we have to do is jump Philly picking in front of us.I don't see tackle being as big of a need for us as the interior where we need two starters at both guard positions. I don't like trying to shift Reiff inside at this point in his career and playing musical chairs along the offensive line. We are solid at both tackle spots and center. Upgraded guard play is sorely needed. There are some players in the second and third rounds that can fill those spots.
I love rolling the dice on Muti at that point and think Gilman is a feisty kid that will compete on special teams and can make the roster
It really depends how the board falls. In my last mock I suggested a trade-up is definitely in play from #22 as well. If one of Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs makes it to say 14, you have to watch them moving up. I don't personally think they'd do it for Jefferson, who I have heard they aren't as high on (but it is lying season). But aside from WR there are about 15 blue-chip prospects in this class and if you can grab one at the expense of using a 3rd round pick to move up, its a good way to allocate your assets.The reason tackle ends up being a need in my opinion is that you don't "need" a OT now, but you're proactively drafting your future at the position and still can get some use out of Reiff. If not, you're now saving $10+M against this years cap that'll roll over into next year (net savings of $20+M on 2021's cap). You're playing with fire if your eventual plan is to move on from Reiff next season and you have no viable future in the pipeline.
I agree there is some depth at the position, but to me the top 4 guys (including Jefferson) are a rung above the rest and I'd feel better landing one of them then trading back and rolling the dice on Hamler or someone in that range replacing what Diggs brought to the table.
I also agree it's always nice to have quality backups at every position marinating to start, but that's just not reality in today's NFL where teams always rely on rookies starting and producing. I think in that instance at worst case you can hope Udoh continues to developed at RT with the potential of swinging O'Neill to the left side. For purposes of this draft though we need to upgrade both guard spots and that should be the priority
Really nice draft, would be happy if this shook out. I do notice you are really precisely filling needs in the first 3 rounds and projecting a lot of immediate contributors, though not necessarily starters.
I agree with the concerns at WR, especially Hodgins - great kid, will always be in traffic in the NFL. I am not so down on Hamler, because Spielman has been attracted to blazing speed for a long time and Cousins has done well when he had a field-stretching deep threat. FSU, you didn't really explain your concerns - too many drops would be my biggest, but I'm interested in yours.
But, I've gotta play Mythbuster a bit. Geoff: "Name a better duo than the MN Vikings coaching staff and late round developmental pass rushers." IDK, maybe tribal casinos and '80s rockers you thought were long retired? Because those happen a lot but are only occasionally worthwhile. Some of you talk like we have been repeatedly pulling All-Pros out of the last few rounds of the draft, to the point we can almost bank on it. Well, who are they?
2018 Ade Aruna Waived, zero NFL stats2017 Ifeadi Odenigbo Bounced between us, Browns, and Cards for 2 years then had 7 sacks last year
2016 Stephen Weatherly Had a nice 2018 (3 sacks), then little in 2019 and we let him leave
2015 BJ Dubose We waived him 5 times within 20 months, kind of impressive
I can leave Trevor Guyton and D'Aundre Reed off the list since they pre-date Zimmer. But by the same token, we can't pull up the names of Everson Griffen and Brian Robison - and I wouldn't call 4th round selections, both in the top 102 picks, "late round", and definitely not 3rd-rounder Danielle Hunter.
Maybe Odenigbo is about to emerge as a dominant DE - but he might also have a lot less success when asked to play full time and slip back as Weatherly did. Even if he becomes a good starter, let's be realistic: 7th round DE picks by the Vikings are not some reliable sack production factory.
@"Jor-El" said:I think maybe my comment on the late round pass rushers is being taken out of context a little bit. All of your points are valid. I look at it more from a return on investment point of view. Overall they've drafted in the 7th round better than most teams. I would say that the expectation is that you're lucky if a 7th round draft pick or UDFA makes the roster, let along plays out their entire rookie contract. To to give a broader scope lets look at 7th round picks across the NFCN the past 3 years:Really nice draft, would be happy if this shook out. I do notice you are really precisely filling needs in the first 3 rounds and projecting a lot of immediate contributors, though not necessarily starters. I agree with the concerns at WR, especially Hodgins - great kid, will always be in traffic in the NFL. I am not so down on Hamler, because Spielman has been attracted to blazing speed for a long time and Cousins has done well when he had a field-stretching deep threat. FSU, you didn't really explain your concerns - too many drops would be my biggest, but I'm interested in yours. But, I've gotta play Mythbuster a bit. Geoff: "Name a better duo than the MN Vikings coaching staff and late round developmental pass rushers." IDK, maybe tribal casinos and '80s rockers you thought were long retired? Because those happen a lot but are only occasionally worthwhile. Some of you talk like we have been repeatedly pulling All-Pros out of the last few rounds of the draft, to the point we can almost bank on it. Well, who are they? 2018 Ade Aruna Waived, zero NFL stats2017 Ifeadi Odenigbo Bounced between us, Browns, and Cards for 2 years then had 7 sacks last year 2016 Stephen Weatherly Had a nice 2018 (3 sacks), then little in 2019 and we let him leave 2015 BJ Dubose We waived him 5 times within 20 months, kind of impressive I can leave Trevor Guyton and D'Aundre Reed off the list since they pre-date Zimmer. But by the same token, we can't pull up the names of Everson Griffen and Brian Robison - and I wouldn't call 4th round selections, both in the top 102 picks, "late round", and definitely not 3rd-rounder Danielle Hunter. Maybe Odenigbo is about to emerge as a dominant DE - but he might also have a lot less success when asked to play full time and slip back as Weatherly did. Even if he becomes a good starter, let's be realistic: 7th round DE picks by the Vikings are not some reliable sack production factory.
2019:
Viking- Kris Boyd, Dillon Mitchell, Olabisi Johnson, Austin Cutting
Packers - Ty Summers
Bears - Kerrith Whythe, Stephen Denmak
Lions - Isaac Nauta, P.J. Johnson
2018:
Viking- Devante Downs
Packers - James Looney, Hunter Bradley, Kendall Donerson
Bears - Javon Wims
Lions - Nick Bawden
2017:
Viking- Ifeadi Odenigbo, Stacy Coley, Elijah Lee, Jack Tocho
Packers - Devante Mays, Malachi Dupre
Bears - None
Lions - Pat O'Connor
In all the Vikings have gotten moderate production out of 4 out of their 9 selections with Lee making it on other teams rosters (I'll consider that a miss). Call it a 44% rate of return. The rest of the NFC north is a combined 2 for 13 for a 15% hit rate.
So although they are not starts, there is something there.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:So although they are not starts, there is something there.
And I can agree with that, definitely. As you said, you're lucky if a 7th round pick even makes the roster. Every draft pick is a gamble - and I would say those in the last couple rounds are more lottery tickets than investments.
But many people - definitely more than you - like to build up the idea of the Vikings coaches being able to spin straw into gold, and it's an unsupported myth.
@"Jor-El" said:@"Geoff Nichols" said:So although they are not starts, there is something there.
And I can agree with that, definitely. As you said, you're lucky if a 7th round pick even makes the roster. Every draft pick is a gamble - and I would say those in the last couple rounds are more lottery tickets than investments.
But many people - definitely more than you - like to build up the idea of the Vikings coaches being able to spin straw into gold, and it's an unsupported myth.
Agree. I also don't think its solely the work of the coaching staff either. The Vikings use analytics (especially in the late rounds) to identity which players are more likely to succeed (stick on a roster). They seem to have developed/refined thresholds that actually work. So they're bringing a product to the coaching staff that at least has a fighting chance.
Do we need WR's that badly that we need to have one in the first 2 rounds? Having the kind of depth that exists at the position, what would happen if we went in another direction at #58... and waited to pick a WR later? Would the drop-off be that much?
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