Can the Vikings make a deep playoff run without an elite defense?
It’s been a long time since Minnesota Vikings fans had concerned about their team’s defense.
In 2013 the Vikings finished 32nd in yards allowed but in Mike Zimmer’s first year they jumped to 14th. By his fourth season they were No. 1 in the NFL in yards and points against. And a “drop off” from their top-ranked year meant fourth in yards and ninth in points in 2018.
After a 37-30 loss in Seattle, you have to rub your eyes and refresh the Football Reference page a few times to make sure it’s right. Yes indeed the Vikings are 16th in yards and 11th in points. At the moment they are an average defense.
By a more detailed measure, Football Reference’s “Expected Points Added,” which factors game situation versus allowed yards and turnovers, the Vikings are 17th.
Assuming they don’t see a massive jump over the final four weeks and finish the year mid-pack, what does that do to the Super Bowl chances of a team that has been built around defense since the day Zimmer arrived?
The answer: Surprisingly not that much.
The reason: The Vikings have an offense that has performed better than the average offense of the last 20 years to appear in the Super Bowl and a similar defense to the average Super Bowl-appearing team.
https://www.skornorth.com/vikings-2/2019/12/can-the-vikings-make-a-deep-playoff-run-without-an-elite-defense/
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Sure looks like a one and done deal. Time for changes through the entire organization. GM, coaches, players. Blow it up and start over. Zim in 6 years has made some progress, but will not get to a super bowl, and that is the ultimate goal. winning a few regular season games against lessor competition and never getting a win against top shelf teams is not the answer
anything can happen. ANYTHING.
Still a lot of football left to play. get in, then do some damage
@"Vanguard83" said: anything can happen. ANYTHING.Still a lot of football left to play. get in, then do some damage
I agree anything can happen.
This team under Zim could just as easily, lay an egg in a couple games and not make the playoffs altogether
The narrative when the playoffs begin will be just how improved that Vikings defense is. Each article will begin with "in their last 4 games...." But it will be about the matchups. Because it's always about the matchups. Still, I'll take manufactured confidence over no confidence every time.
Defense is no longer a way a team can be built and dominant due to rule changes.
55 points in first half saints/49ers.. enough said.
I'm pretty surprised this thread has not generated responses like, "How is our defense not considered elite?? We just had a near-shutout, held a team to 7 points, we're back in the top 10 for scoring defense...."
I know some people hate to discuss that teams have a "window" of championship contention, but I think Spielman believed the defensive unit had a window of 2016-2018, which is why he hurriedly acquired Sam Bradford when Bridgewater was hurt. That didn't work, they hoped it could extend a little longer to fit in Cousins' contract, but now several cornerstone players (Rhodes, Griffen, Joseph) are declining and we can only defeat good teams if our offense outduels them.
I disagree with the idea that Minnesota has ever had an Elite Defense under Zimmer. Baltimore had an Elite Defense. Chicago. Broncos. Those were Elite Defenses in the Superbowl.
Elite Defenses ATTACK. That's why I don't include Seattle during the Legion of Boom era. They just sat back in Cover 3 and bent but didn't break. Which is the hallmark of a Zimmer Defense. Bend, don't break.
You'd really need guys generating TOs at multiple levels of the Defense to be a B & DB Defense and become Elite. Or 4 D-Linemen wreaking havoc on every play.
Mike has had really good to borderline great Defenses here. He's never had an Elite one. Not sure if he would use an Elite roster in a way that would allow to be an Elite Defense.
And you know what? That's ok. As the stats in the article show, even average Defenses can win you a Superbowl if the Offense clicks. Just need to get enough stops or TOs.
This Defense is good enough IF this Offense clicks. My biggest concern is that Pass Protection won't be good enough on the road to truly allow the Offense to hum. Which will require this iteration of the Defense to get more stops or TOs. Not seeing enough to believe that will happen.
But you never know. It's a wide open year, anything can happen.
Sitting here thinking about a playoff run, as in the NFC playoffs, and scratching my head... Nobody thinks the Vikings are playing defense at an "elite" level, but then which of the teams currently in the NFC playoff spots really are?
-SF is about the only one; total yardage stats about equal to the '17 Vikings while giving up a couple more points/game than they did.
-GB numbers are worse than MN
-NO is very close to MN while allowing more points/game
-Dallas, similar to NO
-Seattle has allowed the most ppg and ypg of the bunch
MN is 2nd of this group in PPG allowed behind SF
They're comparable in YPG allowed with NO & Dallas and considerably above GB & Seattle.
T3rd with GB in takeaways behind SF & Seattle.
3rd in sacks behind SF & NO.
I guess what I'm suggesting is that we're just more judgemental of and disappointed with the Vikings defense because they're not near the top of the league statistically right now. The way I see it is that if the current six teams are in the NFC playoffs, perhaps fans of SF might be the only ones that should feel pretty confident regarding that side of the ball.
I look at the list of teams making the SB and it looks like
you can be generationally good on one side of the ball and bad on the other, or
you can be top 3ish on one side and middle of the pack on the other, or you can
be top 5 on one side of the ball and top 10 on the other. There’s not a lot of examples of top 5 on one
side of the ball and middle of the pack on the other.
I don’t think we’re good enough currently, especially to go
on the road for all the playoffs. I
think we’ll need to “get hot at the right time” type of a deal, with either our
offense becoming elite or our defense getting back to how it normally plays. The Packers sucking and letting us win the
division would help a lot.
@"CLOBIMON" said: Sitting here thinking about a playoff run, as in the NFC playoffs, and scratching my head... Nobody thinks the Vikings are playing defense at an "elite" level, but then which of the teams currently in the NFC playoff spots really are?-SF is about the only one; total yardage stats about equal to the '17 Vikings while giving up a couple more points/game than they did.
-GB numbers are worse than MN
-NO is very close to MN while allowing more points/game
-Dallas, similar to NO
-Seattle has allowed the most ppg and ypg of the bunchMN is 2nd of this group in PPG allowed behind SF
They're comparable in YPG allowed with NO & Dallas and considerably above GB & Seattle.
T3rd with GB in takeaways behind SF & Seattle.
3rd in sacks behind SF & NO.I guess what I'm suggesting is that we're just more judgemental of and disappointed with the Vikings defense because they're not near the top of the league statistically right now. The way I see it is that if the current six teams are in the NFC playoffs, perhaps fans of SF might be the only ones that should feel pretty confident regarding that side of the ball.
It's a Wide Open year in the NFC. Which makes the Defense's performance so disappointing.
Even last year's Defense wouldn't have given up clock-eating drive after clock-eating drive to Chase freaking Daniel's. Or 3 TDs to start the GB game. Or let Matt freaking Moore hit chunk play after chunk play. Or given up 200+ yards to a so-so Hags O-Line and RBs.
With the 2017 Vikings Defense this team is undefeated and everyone is drooling over the inevitable showdown with Baltimore in the Superbowl.
There's some perspective on how far they've fallen on that side of the ball. The Offense that was moribund even last year is now outperforming them. Which sucks cuz every NFC Playoff Team is eminently beatable at home.
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