09-26-2019, 07:22 PM
4. Bears -2 vs. VikingsI loved the Vikings as big favorites over the Raiders last week because it's just what this team and this quarterback do. They beat up on bad football teams. I do not, however, love the Vikings against the Bears (in Chicago) because what this team and this quarterback don't do is beat up on good football teams.
The Bears have been tough to back to this point in the season because of their comatose offense, but their offense woke up against a bad Redskins defense on Monday night, with Mitchell Trubisky completing 80.7 percent of his passes, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, and throwing three touchdowns and one interception for a 116.5 passer rating. Was it perfect? Not even close. He demonstrated shaky accuracy with his ball placement on downfield passes and threw an awful pick in the red zone, but he made progress after two dismal performances to begin the season.
Last season, the Bears beat the Vikings in both of their meetings because the Vikings' offensive line couldn't keep Cousins upright. In their two matchups -- one of which came in a Week 17 game that was meaningless to the Bears, but meant everything to a Vikings team that needed a win to make the playoffs -- the Vikings allowed six sacks and Cousins averaged just a smidge under 5 yards per pass attempt while throwing three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Bears covered the spread in both of those games.
The key will be how the Bears' defense handles NFL rushing leader Dalvin Cook and the Vikings' seventh-ranked rushing attack, per Football Outsiders. If the Bears can stop Cook, they'll force the Vikings to rely on Cousins and their pass protection, which has struggled immensely. According to NFL Matchup on ESPN, only three quarterbacks have been under pressure on a higher percentage of their passes than Cousins (34.8%). I think the Bears can stop the running game. Their defense ranks third against the run, per Football Outsiders, and is allowing only 68.7 rushing yards per game (the fifth lowest).
I was tempted to take the under, but 38 seems too low (both defenses could get in on the scoring action), so instead I'll ride with the Bears and their defense. At worst, the Bears should be favored by three points at home, so I love getting the extra point here.
The Bears have been tough to back to this point in the season because of their comatose offense, but their offense woke up against a bad Redskins defense on Monday night, with Mitchell Trubisky completing 80.7 percent of his passes, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, and throwing three touchdowns and one interception for a 116.5 passer rating. Was it perfect? Not even close. He demonstrated shaky accuracy with his ball placement on downfield passes and threw an awful pick in the red zone, but he made progress after two dismal performances to begin the season.
Here's what important, though: For as inconsistent as Trubisky has been, Cousins has been way too consistently awful against good teams for me to take the Vikings.
Quote:A few stats that stand out to me heading into Sunday’s game against Minnesota:
- Since 2010, the Bears are 15-4 against the Vikings at Soldier Field.
- Kirk Cousins is 4-26 against winning teams. #Bears
![[Image: c3yoJWdX_bigger.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1169741020600229888/c3yoJWdX_bigger.jpg)
The key will be how the Bears' defense handles NFL rushing leader Dalvin Cook and the Vikings' seventh-ranked rushing attack, per Football Outsiders. If the Bears can stop Cook, they'll force the Vikings to rely on Cousins and their pass protection, which has struggled immensely. According to NFL Matchup on ESPN, only three quarterbacks have been under pressure on a higher percentage of their passes than Cousins (34.8%). I think the Bears can stop the running game. Their defense ranks third against the run, per Football Outsiders, and is allowing only 68.7 rushing yards per game (the fifth lowest).
I was tempted to take the under, but 38 seems too low (both defenses could get in on the scoring action), so instead I'll ride with the Bears and their defense. At worst, the Bears should be favored by three points at home, so I love getting the extra point here.
