OpEd: How much would a star No.3 receiver impact the Vikings’ offense?

[purplefaithful]

As we count down the days until the beginning of NFL free agency, the Minnesota Vikings will be assessing their biggest needs and deciding where they want to invest cap space. Offensive line will certainly be a focus for the Vikings after ranking 27th by Pro Football Focus metrics in pass protection. But adding a No.3 receiver behind Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs may be key to unlocking the passing offense.

In 2018, the Vikings’ passing game was nowhere near the NFL’s best. Kirk Cousins may have cleared 4,000 yards, but Minnesota ranked 22nd in Expected Points Added, right behind the San Francisco 49ers.

What EPA tells us is how a team performed versus situation. For example, say the Vikings had third-and-6 from the 50-yard line. A 20-yard pass would create above expected results, a six-yard pass might create expected results and a 6-yard loss would have below expected results. One reason for using EPA is that it gives us the clearest picture of the passing offense’s efficiency and ability to step up when needed most.
The Vikings’ results in this category match up pretty well with the eye test. We routinely saw them come up short in key spots.
How much exactly did that hurt the team’s scoring output? Pro-Football Reference’s EPA model credits the Vikings for plus-52.7 Expected Points Added. The top team was Kansas City at plus-266.7 and 12 teams were over 100 EPA. The takeaway here is simple: In order to compete with the best teams in the NFL in 2019, the Vikings’ passing game needs to take leaps, not steps, forward.
There is no question that improved pass protection will help. There is also likely a ceiling on how much better that protection can get just like there is a ceiling on the level of quarterback play that can be expected.
However, when Washington had DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, Josh Reed and Vernon Davis in 2016, they ranked fifth in passing EPA with Kirk Cousins.
https://www.skornorth.com/vikings-2/2019...s-offense/

[Guest]

Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus):
— Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating
— Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating
— Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating
Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers.
— Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating
— Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating
— Treadwell: 47 targets, 80.3 rating

[Guest]

I know the Vikings tried hard to bring in Alshon Jeffery a couple years ago, but that was before they were paying Diggs and before they knew what they had in Thielen. 

I don't know why we keep hearing all this talk about the Vikings bringing in a star free agent receiver. Doesn't make any sense. He'd likely make more money than Thielen, which would create turmoil. Even if the Vikings extend Thielen, then you have a huge imbalance of money directed to receiver that would cripple other parts of the team. 

That 3rd receiver is a need that is much more likely to be filled in the draft. Speaking of which, there is a Diggs Jr. in Deebo Samuel and a Thielen look alike in Riley Ridley. Possible both could be there in the 2nd round. 

[Guest]

While I do think another receiver would help the offense and Cousins, and maybe even Diggs and Thielen, as MaroonBells said, getting one in FA doesn't seem likely or logical. Two issues: how could we afford them, and why would a "star" want to play #3 receiver? Antonio Brown or Golden Tate will both want to be undeniable #1 targets where they go. Even a lower-tier WR like Tyrell Williams or Donte Moncrief will get opportunities without two receivers ahead of him. I like the Chiefs Chris Conley but he is also aiming to get more opportunities than a #3.

So we're either looking at the draft or bringing in a FA who was a disappointment elsewhere and looking for  a chance to shine in new environs - like Kevin White or Breshad Perriman (did the Vikings bring him in for a tryout last season?). Longshot gambles.

[Guest]

I think Beebe or Zylstra might be a decent #3 next season.  Unless we improve the pass protection, it won't matter much anyway.

[Guest]

Why does Kirk need the best trio of WR's?
Who was the number 3 in MN in 2017?

There is talk of getting him a better TE also.
Kyle ranked 7th and 10th in catches, yards, and TD's
Who was the TE for MN in 2017?
Just improve the O lime and stop with the excuses for this guy already.

All the experts said MN needed a better QB than they had in 2017.
So they fixed that with Kirk.

Now that it backfired, the rest of the team somehow needs improving?

[Guest]

@"purplefaithful" said:
Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus):
— Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating
— Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating
— Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating
Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers.
— Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating
— Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating
— Treadwell: 47 targets, 80.3 rating

This seems like a weak link. I'm pretty much done with this guy.

[Guest]

@"HappyViking" said:
I think Beebe or Zylstra might be a decent #3 next season.  Unless we improve the pass protection, it won't matter much anyway.

The elephant in the room is Treadwell. Just terrible and his play seemed to deteriorate as the season progressed. 

Yah, one of those 2 kids need to step-up this season for sure...

[Guest]

I mean its an oped in the middle of no mans land in terms of the nfl. Anything and every idea no matter how unlikley is worth of an article. 

[Guest]

@"suncoastvike" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:
Here’s how Cousins performed when targeted each of his receivers that year (per Pro Football Focus):
— Garcon: 110 targets, 102.9 rating
— Crowder: 92 targets, 112.9 rating
— Jackson: 89 targets, 107.2 rating
Now compare that to the 2018 Vikings receivers.
— Thielen: 149 targets, 115.4 rating
— Diggs: 141 targets, 107.9 rating
— Treadwell: 47 targets, 80.3 rating

This seems like a weak link. I'm pretty much done with this guy.

Well Kirk could have targeted Adam 39 and Diggs 49 fewer times and thrown to Tread 88 more times.
Thielen: 110
Diggs: 92
Threadwell: 135

There are only so many pass attempts in a year. Kirk was right near the top.

Okay Thread is the weak link.
Point is, you can get a better 3rd, all it does is takes away from the other 2.