Pro Football Focus predicts Vikings to win the North

[purplefaithful]

With just days remaining before training camp, football’s analysts are putting their predictions on record. The data-driven folks at Pro Football Focus recently released their forecast for the NFC North, which sees the Minnesota Vikings with slightly higher odds than the Green Bay Packers to win the division.


PFF’s numbers give the Vikings a 38 percent chance to take the North, while Green Bay has a 23 percent chance, Detroit 23 percent and Chicago 16 percent.

Naturally the numbers point toward the Vikings appearing in the playoffs. PFF gives them a 50 percent shot at the postseason. The Packers, Lions and Bears are all 35 percent or below. And the Vikings are listed as the highest Super Bowl percentage among NFC North teams at five percent. Assuming they make the playoffs, those chances to up. PFF wrote:

“The Vikings remain the class of the division, but are projected under their 10.5 Vegas win total going into the season. As stated above, Green Bay is projected to improve from 2017, but due to the relatively-unique situation of getting back a generational player at the quarterback position, are well underneath their Vegas win total. Be that as it may, their probability of winning the Super Bowl given that they make the playoffs is 6.1 percent, which is closer to the Vikings number in that situation (7.2 percent) than in the general simulation, showing the effects of an elite quarterback when the air is rarefied.”

The Vikings’ expected win total might come as a surprise. PFF’s numbers have Minnesota as a nine-win team. The Vegas over/under is 10 wins.
http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/0...win-north/

[Guest]

I'll bet the difference in winning the NFCN and 2nd place is one game....or two at the most. 

The NFC matchups in the regular season are so strong and will be so entertaining. Really good teams going to battle every Sunday. Must-see TV, IMO. 

[Guest]

@StickyBun said:
I'll bet the difference in winning the NFCN and 2nd place is one game....or two at the most. 

The NFC matchups in the regular season are so strong and will be so entertaining. Really good teams going to battle every Sunday. Must-see TV, IMO. 

Absolutely on both counts...

The only way it's more than a 2 game delta is if injuries come into play again. 

There was a time where I viewed the NFL QB landscape as a borderline emergency situation. Now it looks to be filled with promising players and with it some great league play as you point out. 

Every game in the regular season in this league is meaningful. Hell, as Guru pointed-out in another thread, even the season opener vs 49'ers could have significant impact down the road.