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So every time you look at defensive stats from last season, the Vikings are #1. #1 in points allowed, #1 in yards allowed, and #1 by a ridiculous margin in 3rd down defense. NFL's best 3rd down defense in 17 years.
So how can a defense that good at preventing yards and scores and 1st downs be so DAMN bad at creating big plays? Vikings finish at the top in nearly every category except big plays. Interceptions: middle of the pack. Sacks: bottom half. Forced fumbles: bottom third. Defensive TDs: near the bottom. Only 4 teams had fewer because the Vikings had only 1 defensive TD last year. For comparison, Eagles had 7, Jags had 8.
So what gives? DTDs are often a result of just pure luck. Playing inaccurate QBs, bad offensive lines, backs who put the ball on the ground, so just through simple regression toward the mean, I expect the Vikings' defense to improve its touchdowns in 2018.
However, I also wonder if it doesn't have something to do with Zimmer's well known, military-like discipline. Stay in your gaps. Stay in your zone. No freelancing, etc. While this strategy clearly works very well in preventing yards and scores it might be the biggest thing preventing more big plays.
This has been a very young defense for the past couple years. But I don't think you can necessarily say that anymore. Barr is in his 5th season. Kendricks his 4th. Hunter his 4th. Waynes his 4th. Whadya say, Mike, maybe it's time to trust these guys a little more?
I was certainly willing to live with it last year. But boy, you really hope for more big plays, D scores especially when the playoffs come.
I think Zimm has gotta let the horses run
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
So every time you look at defensive stats from last season, the Vikings are #1. #1 in points allowed, #1 in yards allowed, and #1 by a ridiculous margin in 3rd down defense. NFL's best 3rd down defense in 17 years.
So how can a defense that good at preventing yards and scores and 1st downs be so DAMN bad at creating big plays? Vikings finish at the top in nearly every category except big plays. Interceptions: middle of the pack. Sacks: bottom half. Forced fumbles: bottom third. Defensive TDs: near the bottom. Only 4 teams had fewer because the Vikings had only 1 defensive TD last year. For comparison, Eagles had 7, Jags had 8.
So what gives? DTDs are often a result of just pure luck. Playing inaccurate QBs, bad offensive lines, backs who put the ball on the ground, so just through simple regression toward the mean, I expect the Vikings' defense to improve its touchdowns in 2018.
However, I also wonder if it doesn't have something to do with Zimmer's well known, military-like discipline. Stay in your gaps. Stay in your zone. No freelancing, etc. While this strategy clearly works very well in preventing yards and scores it might be the biggest thing preventing more big plays.
This has been a very young defense for the past couple years. But I don't think you can necessarily say that anymore. Barr is in his 5th season. Kendricks his 4th. Hunter his 4th. Waynes his 4th. Whadya say, Mike, maybe it's time to trust these guys a little more?
We just don't turn teams over enough. Our Pass rush was not good last year. I know that sacks are just one measure of that, but 16 teams had better sack numbers than the Vikings last season, 14 Teams had more interceptions, and 24 Teams had more forced fumbles. Maybe that is all be design because we do hold teams to the lowest points of any defense in the NFL. Unfortunately those stats didn't do much for us in both playoff games when it mattered most.
because those splash plays are often created when a player takes chances with coverage or gamble against the balance of the scheme. I will take the D that plays soundly all the time and doesnt allow for people playing outside of the scheme for the chance of a turn over. better pass coverage comes from LB not rushing but staying in passing lanes with S help over top of the Corners to take away some of the double move threat going up top which allows the corners a little more room to defend the under neath routes. The linemen cant sell out to get to the QB with the LBs playing coverage as that will open up rush lanes... everybody doing their jobs and then just wait for the O to make the errors.... which they will. its a symphony and a really damn good one with the quality of people we have on that side of the ball. I expect it to be much better this year with a disruptive 3T in the middle creating more chaos, but I still dont expect a lot of scoring and huge sack numbers.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
because those splash plays are often created when a player takes chances with coverage or gamble against the balance of the scheme. I will take the D that plays soundly all the time and doesnt allow for people playing outside of the scheme for the chance of a turn over. better pass coverage comes from LB not rushing but staying in passing lanes with S help over top of the Corners to take away some of the double move threat going up top which allows the corners a little more room to defend the under neath routes. The linemen cant sell out to get to the QB with the LBs playing coverage as that will open up rush lanes... everybody doing their jobs and then just wait for the O to make the errors.... which they will. its a symphony and a really damn good one with the quality of people we have on that side of the ball. I expect it to be much better this year with a disruptive 3T in the middle creating more chaos, but I still dont expect a lot of scoring and huge sack numbers.
exactly
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
because those splash plays are often created when a player takes chances with coverage or gamble against the balance of the scheme. I will take the D that plays soundly all the time and doesnt allow for people playing outside of the scheme for the chance of a turn over. better pass coverage comes from LB not rushing but staying in passing lanes with S help over top of the Corners to take away some of the double move threat going up top which allows the corners a little more room to defend the under neath routes. The linemen cant sell out to get to the QB with the LBs playing coverage as that will open up rush lanes... everybody doing their jobs and then just wait for the O to make the errors.... which they will. its a symphony and a really damn good one with the quality of people we have on that side of the ball. I expect it to be much better this year with a disruptive 3T in the middle creating more chaos, but I still dont expect a lot of scoring and huge sack numbers.
If given a choice between big plays and winning football games with disciplined defense, I'll take the latter obviously. Just think it might be time for Mike to loosen the reins just a bit.
I remember reading about Junior Seau and how he would constantly frustrate his coaches, who would frequently scream "what the hell is he doing"? And then he would have a tackle for loss or an interception or a sack. He always seemed to guess right because his instincts were so good, and so eventually, they just let him do his thing on his way to a hall of fame career.
As I said, we will probably improve the big plays just through natural regression toward the mean, but this is also a young defense that has slowly become a veteran defense, meaning it might be time to start trusting their instincts a little more. Not a complete overhaul of strategy, just a slight nudge of the scale.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
because those splash plays are often created when a player takes chances with coverage or gamble against the balance of the scheme. I will take the D that plays soundly all the time and doesnt allow for people playing outside of the scheme for the chance of a turn over. better pass coverage comes from LB not rushing but staying in passing lanes with S help over top of the Corners to take away some of the double move threat going up top which allows the corners a little more room to defend the under neath routes. The linemen cant sell out to get to the QB with the LBs playing coverage as that will open up rush lanes... everybody doing their jobs and then just wait for the O to make the errors.... which they will. its a symphony and a really damn good one with the quality of people we have on that side of the ball. I expect it to be much better this year with a disruptive 3T in the middle creating more chaos, but I still dont expect a lot of scoring and huge sack numbers.
If given a choice between big plays and winning football games with disciplined defense, I'll take the latter obviously. Just think it might be time for Mike to loosen the reins just a bit.
I remember reading about Junior Seau and how he would constantly frustrate his coaches, who would frequently scream "what the hell is he doing"? And then he would have a tackle for loss or an interception or a sack. He always seemed to guess right because his instincts were so good, and so eventually, they just let him do his thing on his way to a hall of fame career.
As I said, we will probably improve the big plays just through natural regression toward the mean, but this is also a young defense that has slowly become a veteran defense, meaning it might be time to start trusting their instincts a little more. Not a complete overhaul of strategy, just a slight nudge of the scale.
as long as it doesnt create tendencies that can be exploited by the opposing QBs. to often DBs will bite on a certain set or move and get beat over the top (ask KC again why they let the great marcus peters go in trade) sometimes its better to be steady and solid. those splash stats will come, i am sure the sacks would have been higher with a healthy Griff and Floyd last year.
There were time that pressure on the QB disappeared. Not just low sacks but no pressure. It was evident in the last 6 quarters of the playoffs. Pressure=sacks=turnovers. Griffen wasn't 100% that hurt. Maybe with Griff, Hunter and now Richardson the pressure will produce more turnovers. I get that staying in your lane and turning a 3rd an 6 into a 4th and 2 is good fundamental football. Pic 6 is good fun football...period.
Quote: @suncoastvike said:
There were time that pressure on the QB disappeared. Not just low sacks but no pressure. It was evident in the last 6 quarters of the playoffs. Pressure=sacks=turnovers. Griffen wasn't 100% that hurt. Maybe with Griff, Hunter and now Richardson the pressure will produce more turnovers. I get that staying in your lane and turning a 3rd an 6 into a 4th and 2 is good fundamental football. Pic 6 is good fun football...period.
that pick six makes highlight reels alright, but what you dont see are the 10 points that that player gives up due to gambling on getting that pick 6. yes they could use more pressure and it will lead to more turnovers, but I wouldnt want a defense to be sacrificed in the name of a splash play... 13-3 was no fluke, its sound football for the most part.
It's an interesting question, but I don't think you can point solely at Zimmer's scheme and his emphasis on everyone "doing their job" and "not farming someone else's crops". You might think that is the case if you just look at this past season... but check out largely the same defense in 2016 that ranked top 5 in most of the major categories.
Takeaways: 27 (Tied for 7th)
Interceptions: 14 (Tied for 12th)
Fumble Recoveries: 13 (Tied for 4th)
Sacks: 41 (5th)
Defensive TDs: 4 (only 3 other teams had more with 5 total)
Those numbers and rankings look pretty damn good and what you would expect from a top 5 defense. I think the decrease this past season is a combination of things... the lack of a pass rush in the 2nd half of the season... some dumb luck and the quality of opponents we faced... the most dominant 3rd down defense we've seen in almost 20 years... and the Vikings having the 3rd most 3-and-outs in the NFL (i.e. less drives and offensive plays).
You can sometimes get more turnovers if you give your players more freedom to make plays on defense, but at what cost? More big plays? More yardage given up? More points given up? It's a slippery slope...
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