Somebody didn't like the deal:
Wednesday, March 14RB
Jerick McKinnon, 49ers
Grade: F
McKinnon hit free agency in pursuit of a deal where he could serve as a primary running back, but his case for a larger role isn't quite clear. The Georgia Southern product was hyperefficient over his first two seasons, averaging 4.9 yards per carry over 165 rushing attempts, but as the larger half of a rotation over the two ensuing seasons, his 309 rush attempts have produced just 3.6 yards per attempt. 14.2 percent of his runs have turned into first downs, which ranks 50th among 51 qualifying backs over that time frame.
Some of that could be chalked up to a dismal offensive line in 2016, but McKinnon wasn't much better behind a much better line in 2017. He also fumbled three times after going his entire career without one. At this point, he profiles as a third-down back with big-play ability, but asking him to run the ball more than five or six times per game is probably too much.
Jerick McKinnon had 12 total touchdowns in four seasons with the Vikings. Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire
It was shocking, then, to see the
49ers give McKinnon a four-year deal for $30 million. The only running back on a multiyear deal with a larger annual salary than McKinnon is
LeSean McCoy. San Francisco did this last year when it fell in love with
Kyle Juszczyk, didn't trust its ability to mold a fullback, and gave him a deal more than 200 percent larger than any other fullback's contract. (Juszczyk subsequently made the Pro Bowl, but that's because he's the most famous fullback; he was
mostly an anonymous receiver, didn't contribute as a runner, and the 49ers averaged both more yards per carry, expected points per run, and a higher first down rate when Juszczyk wasn't on the field.)
Kyle Shanahan watched his dad Mike's offenses produce 1,000-yard backs seemingly out of thin air. His most successful backs in the pros have been exclusively midround picks on rookie deals in Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris,
Devonta Freeman and
Tevin Coleman, none of whom was drafted before the third round. McKinnon should do better under Shanahan's tutelage. He might even be very good, given what the 49ers have around him, but is he going to suddenly become the second-best running back in football? Even if he does, why aren't the 49ers confident they can develop a young back into a worthwhile contributor in a scheme which has been doing that for nearly three decades now? General manager John Lynch and company have certainly made some positive moves, and they have money to burn, but the players they've gotten stuck on -- Juszczyk,
Malcolm Smith and now McKinnon -- have produced incomprehensible contracts.
We'll revisit this grade if the terms of the contract don't match the initial numbers, but if not, this is one of the most stunning deals of the offseason.