Posts: 68
Threads: 39
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation:
38
Nobody wants the season to end, especially the way it had to happen. But inevitably I knew there would be a morning I'd post my writeup on the current Vikings franchise and how this team is likely much more sustainable than the 2009 team that also fell in the NFC Championship game. The entire front office deserves credit for this. Sustainability in the NFL is hard to come by and is truly a team effort. Cost controllable draft picks, strong cap management, and strategically dipping into FA all have to work in harmony. Below I walk through each position as we enter the off-season while taking a look at the cap and adding some high level thoughts.
Quarterback: - Under Contract: Kyle Sloter
- Not Under Contract: Case Keenum (UFA), Sam Bradford (UFA), Teddy Bridgewater (UFA)
The Vikings off-season will be centered around how they handle the QB position. Kyle Sloter will return to compete for the #2/#3 QB spot on the roster, but the rest is undecided. With only a non-guaranteed $0.5M allocated to the position every option is on the table. The franchise tag will be roughly $23M this off-season. The Vikings have until March 6th to apply the tag. Look for the Vikings to wait until that point before making any pivotal decisions. Don't discount the Vikings making a play for a veteran UFA it they come available (Cousins/Brees/Smith).
Running Back: - Under Contract: Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray, C.J. Ham
- Not Under Contract: Jerrick McKinnon (UFA), Bishop Sankey (RFA), Mack Brown (ERFA)
Dalvin Cook should be ready to go prior to training camp and will be in-line for 200+ carries in 2018. After that things are not nearly as black and white. Latavius Murray is a cut/restructure candidate. His contract was designed in a way to give the Vikings a choice to continue the relationship after 2018. Releasing Murray would save $5.15M against the cap. More likely than not the Vikings will need to decide between resigning Jet or retaining Murray. The question is who is more replaceable both on and off the field? Jet will be in-line for a nice deal in the range of $4M AAV, which may make the most sense. To fill out the position extending tenders to one or both Sankey and Brown make sense.
Tight End: - Under Contract: Kyle Rudolph, David Morgan, Blake Bell, Nick Truesdell (PS)
- Not Under Contract: None
After the season the Vikings will probably go back to the drawing board at TE. Kyle Rudolph had a strong 2018 and is an extension candidate with an expiring contract in 2019 with no future salary guarantees. David Morgan remains a valuable asset and Blake Bell is worth retaining through at least training camp. Adding another receiving threat at TE would be ideal. Although early, there will be a number of free agent options available. There are also a few intriguing prospects who could be available in rounds 1-3.
Wide Receiver: - Under Contract: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell, Jarius Wright, Stacy Coley, Brandon Zystra, Rodney Adams (PS), Cayleb Jones (PS)
- Not Under Contract: Michael Floyd (UFA)
Having a strong core of playmakers made life easier for Case Keenum all season long. Although its possible the Vikings look to extend Diggs this off-season with only a year remaining on his contract, it may make sense for both sides to wait until 2019. Jarius Wright may end up being forced to once again restructure his deal or risk being cut. Although a valuable 3rd down weapon, his current cap number slightly under $5M doesn't make sense. Look for the team to give Stacy Coley more chances in 2018, they like him. The rest are depth pieces. Although he stayed out of trouble there isn't any guarantee Floyd is brought back for anything more than a minimum salary.
Exterior O-Line: - Under Contract: Riley Reiff, Mike Remmers, Rashod Hill, Aviante Collins, Cedrick Lang (PS), Dieugot Joseph (PS)
- Not Under Contract: None
A 2017 off-season that kicked off with the signings of Reiff/Remmers paid huge dividends all season for the Vikings front 5. Reiff solidified himself as the LT moving forward, which is huge. Mike Remmer's future comes down to whether the Vikings prefer to use him outside or prefer to kick him inside to guard. That flexibility may prove to be valuable. Rashod Hill is a valuable swing tackle that is still developing and Aviante Collins improved tremendously showing value as a 6th lineman the last 1/3 of the season. Depending on how the Vikings prefer to use Remmers, tackle is either a low priority or draft need.
Interior O-Line: - Under Contract: Pat Elflein, Cornelius Edison, Danny Isidora,
- Not Under Contract: Nick Easton (RFA), Jeremiah Sirles (RFA), Joe Berger (UFA)
If you want to pick out a single position group that may see a makeover this off-season its the interior O-line. Until anybody hears otherwise its safe to assume that Joe Berger is likely headed for retirement, opening up a hole at RG. Both Nick Easton and Jeremiah Sirles should be expected to receive RFA tenders. It'll be interesting to see which tender the Vikings opt to use on Easton since he was originally an UDFA and may garner outside interest if given an original round tender. As noted above Remmers may slide into the open RG spot, but Danny Isidora could have a chance to show he deserves a shot during camp. Regardless, guard is a potential FA need and or a round 1-3 draft pick. Pat Elflein looks to be the franchise center for years to come.
Edge Rushers: - Under Contract: Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter, Brian Robison, Stephen Weatherly, Tashawn Bower, Ifeadi Odenigbo (PS)
- Not Under Contract: None
The Vikings outside pass rush took a step back when Everson Griffen suffered a foot injury against the Browns. Danielle Hunter had highs and lows in his first season as a starter but continued to develop. Although he could be extended this off-season it may be best for each side to wait another season, similar to Diggs above. Brian Robison is under contract for his age 35 season, but at that age there is never a guarantee he'll return. Stephen Weatherly looked good in a limited capacity and Tashawn Bower showed a lot last pre-season. The Vikings could look to add another rotational piece but will likely stick to developing young pass rushers with a large extension looming for Hunter.
Interior D-Line: - Under Contract: Linval Joseph, Jaleel Johnson, Sharrif Floyd (toll), Caushaud Lyons (PS), Dylan Bradley (PS)
- Not Under Contract: Tom Johnson (UFA), Shamar Stephen (UFA)
Although the Vikings had the best defense in the NFL this season their lack of an interior pass rush derailed their season. It was first exposed against the Panthers, but the Vikings can be taken advatage of in the middle in close games. It allowed the Saints and Drew Brees to feel comfortable in the 2nd half and allowed Nick Foles to have a field day in the NFCC game. Linval Joseph is a top 3 NT in the league but can't be expected to generate a pass rush when doubled on most plays. Although nobody has gotten an update on Sharrif Floyd, his career appears to sadly be over. Currently its expected his contract will toll into 2018 but the Vikings can waive him with no dead money opening up an additional $6.8M in cap space. Tom Johnson had another successful season but will be going on 34 in August. Shamar Stephen was missed in his short absence' and it would make sense for the Vikings to keep him around if the money makes sense ($3-4M AAV). The team does like Jaleel Johnson though and he will have a role moving forward. Currently the Vikings already spend in the top 1/3 of the league along their D-line. I could still see them spending a sizable chunk of cash to shore up 3-tech in free agency. Otherwise it needs to be addressed early in the draft.
Linebacker: - Under Contract: Eric Kendrick, Anthony Barr, Ben Gedeon, Eric Wilson, Kentrell Brothers, Shaan Washington, Antwione Williams (PS)
- Not Under Contract: Emmanuel Lamur (UFA)
The Vikings LB core is what makes Mike Zimmer's defensive system tick. Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are the key components, both are set to return. Barr will be playing on his $12.3M 5th year option and will be an extension candidate entering training camp. Similar to those before him the only cap impact of an extension in 2018 would likely be a pronated signing bonus incrementing the cap by $2-4M. Eric Kendricks will also be a candidate for a substantial extension. Similar to Barr, Kendricks would likely play out his current contract but roster bonus' will be added to spread out to money. A Kendricks extension will run the Vikings roughly $10M AAV. Ben Gedeon is set to return at WLB, but don't think the Vikings won't give some of their younger players (Wilson/Washington) a chance to beat out the incumbent. Emmanuel Lamur is the sole player not under contract and he likely will have better opportunities elsewhere.
Cornerback: - Under Contract: Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mackenzie Alexander, Horace Richardson (PS)
- Not Under Contract: Terence Newman (UFA), Tramaine Brock (UFA)
Going into the season you could tell the Vikings FO wasn't thrilled with their depth at CB when they traded a 7th round pick for Tramaine Brock. Entering this off-season I agree they need to build up more depth. Xavier Rhodes is one of the leagues best corners and will be playing the first year of his massive extension. The Vikings have until May to pickup Trae Waynes 5th year option for 2019 (around $9M). After taking a step in the right direction, the Vikings likely will reward him and pickup that option. Mac also took strides in the right direction but still has to take another step to be relied on in the slot. Terence Newman likely will return if he wants at age 40. If Newman returns adding another DB still makes sense but would give the Vikings the option of finding a good fit in FA or waiting for the draft. Newman opting to retire makes CB a substantial need in both FA and the draft.
Safety: - Under Contract: Harrison Smith, Andrew Sendejo, Jayron Kearse, Jack Tocho (PS)
- Not Under Contract: Anthony Harris (ERFA)
The Vikings last line of defense was very solid in 2017 and everyone should return in 2018. Although Ant Harris is an ERFA the Vikings will definitely tender him a contract. Although he didn't get any defensive snaps in 2017, Jayron Kearse has developed into one of the best special teams players in the NFL. Sendejo really is the big question mark moving forward. Although he has continually improved, is he is the long-term guy next to Harrison Smith? With two years remaining on his contract with little guaranteed money remaining the Vikings will have to find a solution prior to 2019 when his cap number jumps. Although it wouldn't be a need in free agency I wouldn't be shocked to see the Vikings take a safety they like early in the draft.
Special Teams: - Under Contract: Ryan Quigley, Kevin McDermott
- Not Under Contract: Kai Forbath (UFA), Marcus Sherels (UFA), Jeff Overbaugh (ERFA)
Compared to previous season the Vikings ST's unit was inconsistent this season. Ryan Quigley had one the best seasons for a punter in Vikings history and should return without competition. Kevin McDermott will return as the long snapper. Kai Forbath is an interesting debate. On FGA's Kai was money inside 40 yards, beyond that it was more of a dice roll. On XP's he was 2nd worst in the league. It likely will come down to what else is available and price point. Marcus Sherels will likely be retained as a return specialist. Jeff Overbaugh likely will be tendered but could end up being waived down the road if an additional roster spot were needed.
Thanks Geoff!
Though, I was really hoping to read this a couple of weeks from now...
Quote: @Ilovebigtd's said:
what are the chances that they give teddy a shot next year?
They're not going to make any decisions until they know what is available externally.
Why would we keep 2 long snappers?
Great stuff Geoff. Roster constructing to me is almost as fun as watching the Games themselves.
My first observation is Alex Smith. Game Manager who also has the arm talent to take advantage of Thielen/Diggs. My biggest gripe with Keenum is he holds the. ball too long looking for chunk plays. Later in the season that started to lead to more drive killing sacks and turnovers.
Smith will take what the Defense is giving him instead of always looking for the big play. At the same time, when that chunk play presents itself he was more than good enough to make it happen as this season proved. And he's an effective runner.
Next priority for me is OT. Remmers is League Average. That was a massive upgrade over the previous year, but still not good enough. He was also banged up a ton. Hill to me is what you state, a great swing Tackle. Not a permanent Starter.
3T also needs addressing. It's troublesome that the team used their third overall pick on a kid that didn't play one freaking down this year. There was a lot of talent on the Board that Rick passed on to take this kid. And he will hopefully still develop.
To that end I would look solely in FA for an upgrade. Can't justify using back to back high picks on this role but it's crucial to get production in the pass rush to make Mike's scheme work. I look at how that kid came over from the Bills to the Jags and made a huge difference for them and think Minnesota can do the same thing. This also buys time for JJ to develop.
DE is next on my list. Despite popular belief, Zimmer historically likes to show pressure and then not blitz. Hunter didn't flash as a Starter like he did as a situational rusher, which is to be expected. But that puts too much onus on Griffin. Especially with no threat from the 3T.
I don't like how Weatherly and Bowers weren't in any kind of rotation with Griffin and Hunter. Zimmer rotated a ton of the D-Line in Cincinnati including with young players. He needs to get back to doing that in Minnesota. It keeps guys freaher and makes them less reliant on one guy. If BPA in Round 2 or 3 is a DE go for it.
I'd look pass catching TE in FA to pair with Rudolph and Morgan.
Now for the controversial stuff. Sendejo was awful last night. My worst case scenario was making the Super Bowl and having Bellicheat scheme some looks where he ended up with Gronk in coverage.
Instead it was Ertz. And guess who else couldn't cover him? Smith. This team needs a Safety that can run with TEs and play Center Field. That simply isn't what Sendejo does best. Really, his strengths are also the same as Harrison's, only not as good. That isn't a complimentary player, it's a very good backup.
We saw opposing Safeties in both games that can cover short, intermediate and deep routes. Smith is best used around the short to intermediate range. Time to finally get someone who can take care of all of it so Harrison can be used to his fullest potential.
And NO on drafting a CB. Mike's reputation isn't in drafting and developing CBs. It's in rehabbing veteran CBs. Time to find Newman or Jones 2.0.
This team is close. And I'm a big believer in taking some post season lumps in order to understand what it takes to win it all. Both the Coaches, Players and FO learned a painful but valuable lesson last night.
Some savvy FA signings and good early Round Drafting will have this Team ready to win it all next year.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
Some savvy FA signings and good early Round Drafting will have this Team ready to win it all next year.
I believe this. At least contending again like they did this year....as good as any team in the NFC or close to it on any given Sunday. We'll see, as the NFL can change so much year to year, but this is my thinking also as of right now.
Quote: @mgobluevikes said:
Why would we keep 2 long snappers?
Just to retain Overbaugh's rights for the time being. Basically it would be the cheapest insurance policy you can buy.
I'm really on the fence about Keenum and (as I spewed all last night) the D has me concerned.
Case had a 73 QBR against the Saints and Eagles.
He's very good when the game is manageable and the D keeps it close. Beyond that? I have my doubts.
Problem is, I don't see a slam-dunk successor on this team right now. I see 3 qb's and when you say you have more than 1 qb on the team? Well we all know too well what that means.
The D gave up 62 pts (?) the last 6 qtrs of the season. Harkens me back to Indy & GB last season. Teams have found a way to win against that personnel and scheme as this D tends to collapse at times for reasons beyond my football comprehension.
Otherwise, I think Guru and FSU have nailed the big points and areas in need of upgrade.
Ain't all going to happen in one offseason either. Am hoping (no believing) we have the nucleus to keep us a double-digit win team and in the post season dance for a # of years to come.
Wentz puts Philly a bit ahead of us, but we are looking at ourselves pretty hard in the mirror right now I think. We need a QB like Smith (someone who can TRULY use our great WRs), one more OL, a 3T that is what Floyd was, and another piece to the secondary for depth away from the SB.
We need to stop thinking the NFCC is our GET-TO and win the big one. Zim played soft the last 6-quarters of the season. I love big Z, but why did he take his foot off of the gas? Look at what Parcells did instead of Lewis when they got to the playoffs.
|
