11-27-2017, 10:02 PM
With the NFC slate of games finished up for week 12, lets take a look at the conference with 5 games remaining for each team.
Current Playoff Standings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) [4-0 NFC East] {8-0 NFC}
2. Minnesota Vikings (9-2) [3-1 NFC North] {7-1 NFC}
3. Los Angeles Rams (8-3) [2-1 NFC West] {5-3 NFC}
4. New Orleans Saints (8-3) [2-0 NFC South] {6-2 NFC}
5 (WC1). Carolina Panthers (8-3) [2-1 NFC South] {4-3 NFC}
6 (WC2). Atlanta Falcons (7-4) [1-1 NFC South] {6-1 NFC}
-- Cutoff --
7. Seattle Seahwaks (7-4) [4-0 NFC West] {5-3 NFC}
8. Detroit Lions (6-5) [3-1 NFC North] {5-4 NFC}
1. Philadelphia Eagles - Key Win/Loss: Carolina (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Seattle, @Los Angeles Rams, @New York Giants, Oakland, Dallas
Summary: At this point the Eagles have taken care of business. The question that is still left unanswered is if they're truly a great team. You can't disprove that, but they are not as battle tested as the rest of the NFC. Taking care of business in Seattle and LA would show they're the NFC's elite. They will likely be the first team to lock up either division (either a single win or Dallas loss). After that its on to locking up home field advantage. In a tie-break scenario with MN the Eagles result @LA and Vikings result @CAR will likely prove to be the difference maker (common opponents).
2. Minnesota Vikings - Key Win/Loss: New Orleans (W), Detroit (Split), Los Angeles (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Atlanta, @Carolina, Cincinnati, @Green Bay, Chicago
Summary: Outside of the #1 overall seed, the Vikings control their own destiny. Not only does MN have a choke hold on the NFC North (multiple clinching scenarios) but boasts a strong NFC record and head-to-head victories over their rival division leaders. At this point its a battle for a 1st round bye and home field advantage. At 12 wins the Vikings clinch a bye without any help. It will likely take 11 wins to secure the #2 seed in the NFC and the Vikings appear in position to do so barring an implosion.
3. Los Angeles Rams - Key Win/Loss: Seattle (L), Minnesota (L), New Orleans (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Philadelphia, @Seattle, @Tennessee, San Francisco
Summary: Although they're coming off an impressive win against the Saints, LA has nothing promised to them. Wins @AZ and at home against the 49ers seem like a given, but the rest is up in the air. Although a home match against Philly will be the center of attention, their trip to Seattle could make or break their chances at winning the NFC West. A loss would give Seattle a head-to-head sweep and force the Rams to pass Seattle. The Rams should make the post season but contrary to the media they're more likely playing for a single home playoff game than home-field throughout.
4. New Orleans Saints - Key Win/Loss: Carolina (W), Los Angeles (L)
Remaining Schedule: Carolina, @Atlanta, New York Jets, Atlanta, @Tampa Bay
Summary: Starting in week 13 the Saints will work their way through the NFC south gauntlet. A head-to-head victory over Carolina earlier in the season protects them a home loss dismantling their season. But to be fair the Saints realistically have to win 2/3 vs. Carolina and Atlanta to win the south. Without trying to put the cart before the horse. Barring a 3-way tie with the division winning Seahawks/Vikings the Saints would need to likely win out to secure a first round bye.
5. (WC1) Carolina Panthers - Key Win/Loss: New Orleans (L), Detroit (W), Philadelphia (L), Atlanta (W)
Remaining Schedule: @New Orleans, Minnesota, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, @Atlanta
Summary: As stated above, week 13 is vital to Carolina's hope of winning the NFC South. Lose that contest and you're 2 games back of the Saints with 4 to go. Win that game and the following weeks match up against Minnesota becomes very interesting. Winning the next two would not only put Carolina in position for winning the NFC South, but would potentially put them in the drivers seat for a bye as well. In the wildcard hunt the Panthers 4-3 record against the NFC may come back to bite them if they can't win the South.
6. (WC2) Atlanta Falcons - Key Win/Loss: Detroit (W), Carolina (L), Seattle (W)
Remaining Schedule: Minnesota, New Orleans, @Tampa Bay, @New Orleans, Carolina
Summary: Similar to the rest of the NFC South, their remaining schedule is tough and mainly against divisional foes. Even at 7-4 the Falcons can catch the Saints with two head-to-head match ups upcoming. Even more than the Panthers, the Falcons have the division in front of them and largely control their own destiny with a sweep of the Saints and win at home in week 17 against the Panthers. Even if the chances of that happening are slim, head-to-head wins against Detroit and Seattle combined with a 6-1 NFC record insulate their wildcard chances.
--Cutoff--
7. Seattle Seahawks - Key Win/Loss: Los Angeles (W), Atlanta (L)
Remaining Schedule: Philadelphia, @Jacksonville, Los Angeles, @Dallas, Arizona
Summary: Although the Rams are a media sensation, the Seahawks are very much alive in the West. To put things in perspective, Seattle has a better chance at winning the NFC West than gaining a WC berth with their head-to-head loss against Atlanta paired with a mediocre 5-3 NFC record. As noted above a week 15 meeting at home against the Rams will likely dictate their fate. Strength of schedule between the two teams is roughly the same and a head-to-head sweep would buy then an extra .5 games in the standings. Up until that vital match up a win against either Philly or Jax keep them firmly in the picture.
8. Detroit Lions - Key Win/Loss: Atlanta (L), Minnesota (Split), Carolina (L), New Orleans (L),
Remaining Schedule: @Baltimore, @Tampa Bay, Chicago, @Cincinnati, Green Bay
Summary: A home loss on thanksgiving largely crushed their chances at winning the NFC North. The easiest remaining schedule in the NFC gives them wild card hope. Without trying to conceive way to win a wild card berth, the Lions simply need to win games and hope for Minnesota to keep winning. A single loss to an NFC foe likely ends their postseason hopes.
Current Playoff Standings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) [4-0 NFC East] {8-0 NFC}
2. Minnesota Vikings (9-2) [3-1 NFC North] {7-1 NFC}
3. Los Angeles Rams (8-3) [2-1 NFC West] {5-3 NFC}
4. New Orleans Saints (8-3) [2-0 NFC South] {6-2 NFC}
5 (WC1). Carolina Panthers (8-3) [2-1 NFC South] {4-3 NFC}
6 (WC2). Atlanta Falcons (7-4) [1-1 NFC South] {6-1 NFC}
-- Cutoff --
7. Seattle Seahwaks (7-4) [4-0 NFC West] {5-3 NFC}
8. Detroit Lions (6-5) [3-1 NFC North] {5-4 NFC}
1. Philadelphia Eagles - Key Win/Loss: Carolina (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Seattle, @Los Angeles Rams, @New York Giants, Oakland, Dallas
Summary: At this point the Eagles have taken care of business. The question that is still left unanswered is if they're truly a great team. You can't disprove that, but they are not as battle tested as the rest of the NFC. Taking care of business in Seattle and LA would show they're the NFC's elite. They will likely be the first team to lock up either division (either a single win or Dallas loss). After that its on to locking up home field advantage. In a tie-break scenario with MN the Eagles result @LA and Vikings result @CAR will likely prove to be the difference maker (common opponents).
2. Minnesota Vikings - Key Win/Loss: New Orleans (W), Detroit (Split), Los Angeles (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Atlanta, @Carolina, Cincinnati, @Green Bay, Chicago
Summary: Outside of the #1 overall seed, the Vikings control their own destiny. Not only does MN have a choke hold on the NFC North (multiple clinching scenarios) but boasts a strong NFC record and head-to-head victories over their rival division leaders. At this point its a battle for a 1st round bye and home field advantage. At 12 wins the Vikings clinch a bye without any help. It will likely take 11 wins to secure the #2 seed in the NFC and the Vikings appear in position to do so barring an implosion.
3. Los Angeles Rams - Key Win/Loss: Seattle (L), Minnesota (L), New Orleans (W)
Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Philadelphia, @Seattle, @Tennessee, San Francisco
Summary: Although they're coming off an impressive win against the Saints, LA has nothing promised to them. Wins @AZ and at home against the 49ers seem like a given, but the rest is up in the air. Although a home match against Philly will be the center of attention, their trip to Seattle could make or break their chances at winning the NFC West. A loss would give Seattle a head-to-head sweep and force the Rams to pass Seattle. The Rams should make the post season but contrary to the media they're more likely playing for a single home playoff game than home-field throughout.
4. New Orleans Saints - Key Win/Loss: Carolina (W), Los Angeles (L)
Remaining Schedule: Carolina, @Atlanta, New York Jets, Atlanta, @Tampa Bay
Summary: Starting in week 13 the Saints will work their way through the NFC south gauntlet. A head-to-head victory over Carolina earlier in the season protects them a home loss dismantling their season. But to be fair the Saints realistically have to win 2/3 vs. Carolina and Atlanta to win the south. Without trying to put the cart before the horse. Barring a 3-way tie with the division winning Seahawks/Vikings the Saints would need to likely win out to secure a first round bye.
5. (WC1) Carolina Panthers - Key Win/Loss: New Orleans (L), Detroit (W), Philadelphia (L), Atlanta (W)
Remaining Schedule: @New Orleans, Minnesota, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, @Atlanta
Summary: As stated above, week 13 is vital to Carolina's hope of winning the NFC South. Lose that contest and you're 2 games back of the Saints with 4 to go. Win that game and the following weeks match up against Minnesota becomes very interesting. Winning the next two would not only put Carolina in position for winning the NFC South, but would potentially put them in the drivers seat for a bye as well. In the wildcard hunt the Panthers 4-3 record against the NFC may come back to bite them if they can't win the South.
6. (WC2) Atlanta Falcons - Key Win/Loss: Detroit (W), Carolina (L), Seattle (W)
Remaining Schedule: Minnesota, New Orleans, @Tampa Bay, @New Orleans, Carolina
Summary: Similar to the rest of the NFC South, their remaining schedule is tough and mainly against divisional foes. Even at 7-4 the Falcons can catch the Saints with two head-to-head match ups upcoming. Even more than the Panthers, the Falcons have the division in front of them and largely control their own destiny with a sweep of the Saints and win at home in week 17 against the Panthers. Even if the chances of that happening are slim, head-to-head wins against Detroit and Seattle combined with a 6-1 NFC record insulate their wildcard chances.
--Cutoff--
7. Seattle Seahawks - Key Win/Loss: Los Angeles (W), Atlanta (L)
Remaining Schedule: Philadelphia, @Jacksonville, Los Angeles, @Dallas, Arizona
Summary: Although the Rams are a media sensation, the Seahawks are very much alive in the West. To put things in perspective, Seattle has a better chance at winning the NFC West than gaining a WC berth with their head-to-head loss against Atlanta paired with a mediocre 5-3 NFC record. As noted above a week 15 meeting at home against the Rams will likely dictate their fate. Strength of schedule between the two teams is roughly the same and a head-to-head sweep would buy then an extra .5 games in the standings. Up until that vital match up a win against either Philly or Jax keep them firmly in the picture.
8. Detroit Lions - Key Win/Loss: Atlanta (L), Minnesota (Split), Carolina (L), New Orleans (L),
Remaining Schedule: @Baltimore, @Tampa Bay, Chicago, @Cincinnati, Green Bay
Summary: A home loss on thanksgiving largely crushed their chances at winning the NFC North. The easiest remaining schedule in the NFC gives them wild card hope. Without trying to conceive way to win a wild card berth, the Lions simply need to win games and hope for Minnesota to keep winning. A single loss to an NFC foe likely ends their postseason hopes.
