The Only Question Is Will His HOF Ballot Be Unanimous

[JustInTime]

[Canthony]

I like where you are going with this. I think it is still too early to say he is a first ballot, let alone unanimous. Do I think he is first ballot? Yes, absolutely. No doubt in my mind. Guessing it is still too early for some.

[Montana Tom]

Ask the question again in five years after he's spent at least a full decade at a high level.

One pundit (about a decade ago) laid it out like this:

Typically they just have to play for 10 years and get a few 1000 yard seasons along the way.

In reality you need 1000/12000/100 at the very least as a general guideline, plus several years at being the best or near the best at your positions and a ton of pro-bowl and AP nominations.

I think 1000/12000/90 is a better gauge for this day in age. (NOTE: with 18 regular season games being likely in the next couple of years, these numbers will ratchet up by approx. 5%)

WRs who seem to have the pedigree for the HoF that arent in yet (as of 2016):

Marvin Harrison 1102/14580/128 (IN)
Reggie Wayne 1070/14345/82 (IN)
Terrell Owens 1078/15934/153 (IN)
Randy Moss 982/15292/156 (IN)
Isaac Bruce 1024/15208/91 (IN)
Hines Ward 1000/12083/85 (IN)
Torry Holt 920/13382/74 maybe but probably not

I hope with more consistent QB play, a better OL, a strong RB tandem, and balanced WR's (in addition to Jets), and the intangible improved D leading to more 3 & outs giving our O more plays...we are set up for improved numbers at least this season. How it plays out over the next five years is TBD.

[JustInTime]

Jefferson Stats


Right now he’s averaging ~110/1650/9

That’s five years of OBLITERATING the record books. I believe he’s top 6 for yards in the first 6 years of a career while being in the league for 5.

Correction, he’s top 7. By late October he’ll pass Randy Moss for most yards through 6 seasons 9 or so games to go. He’ll accomplish this in ~10 less games.

[medaille]

Should OBJ be in the HOF? He had an equally as "famous" start to his career. Yards are less than JJ, TDs are more. He just wasn't able to maintain it.

JJ's career up to now isn't HOF worthy, but I think he's getting close. There's way too many great WRs in this "all rules favor the offense" era of the NFL. I still think it's hard to be HOF worthy at WR, without hitting the 10 year mark. JJ maybe gets the benefit of the doubt if he hits HOF caliber yards in year 8. I think he does get the benefit of being pretty much known as the defacto #1 WR in the league most/all of his career so far.

Also disagree that he's been OBLITERATING the record books. He's been consistently very good at getting yards, but there's no real record for yards per season for a portion of a career. He hasn't had anything close to a record breaking season for catches/yards/TDs. His TD numbers are mid. He needs to double his career output to really get in the hunt for the #2 spot for career yardage.

[JustInTime]

OBJ pretty much flamed out after 3 years and never approached that level of production. But Sayers and Terrell Davis are in the Hall of Fame so I’ll leave that up to the voters. 

Consistently very good at getting yards is like saying Sydney Sweeney looks pretty good in swimwear. Or out of swimwear. 

Yes, OBLITERATING the record books. When you’re top 10 in a year over year category and you’re a full year removed from that metric, I’d say that’s obliterating. When you’re likely to exceed the current record by 600 yards in 10 less games I’d call that obliterating. He’s about 10 yards per game average above second place. Id say that’s pretty significant regardless of the rules or the sample size.

[Montana Tom]

Should OBJ be in the HOF?  He had an equally as "famous" start to his career.  Yards are less than JJ, TDs are more.  He just wasn't able to maintain it.

JJ's career up to now isn't HOF worthy, but I think he's getting close.  There's way too many great WRs in this "all rules favor the offense" era of the NFL.  I still think it's hard to be HOF worthy at WR, without hitting the 10 year mark.  JJ maybe gets the benefit of the doubt if he hits HOF caliber yards in year 8.  I think he does get the benefit of being pretty much known as the defacto #1 WR in the league most/all of his career so far.

Also disagree that he's been OBLITERATING the record books.  He's been consistently very good at getting yards, but there's no real record for yards per season for a portion of a career.  He hasn't had anything close to a record breaking season for catches/yards/TDs.  His TD numbers are mid.  He needs to double his career output to really get in the hunt for the #2 spot for career yardage.

Very objective response.
Also, I look at the reality of Chuck Foreman not being in the Hall of Fame.  Due to his injuries, he was not able to sustain his level of performance to the longevity required for getting voted into the HOF.

That's another reason why it is "premature pontification" to talk about Jets for the HOF.

[JustInTime]

Very objective response.
Also, I look at the reality of Chuck Foreman not being in the Hall of Fame.  Due to his injuries, he was not able to sustain his level of performance to the longevity required for getting voted into the HOF.

That's another reason why it is "premature pontification" to talk about Jets for the HOF.

I think you meant subjective.

Objective by definition is fact based.

[medaille]

OBJ pretty much flamed out after 3 years and never approached that level of production. But Sayers and Terrell Davis are in the Hall of Fame so I’ll leave that up to the voters. 

Consistently very good at getting yards is like saying Sydney Sweeney looks pretty good in swimwear. Or out of swimwear. 

Yes, OBLITERATING the record books. When you’re top 10 in a year over year category and you’re a full year removed from that metric, I’d say that’s obliterating. When you’re likely to exceed the current record by 600 yards in 10 less games I’d call that obliterating. He’s about 10 yards per game average above second place. Id say that’s pretty significant regardless of the rules or the sample size.

Nobody gives a shit for "is on pace for".  The HOF is for full careers.  There's multiple receivers in recent memory that have had 5 year stretches that are similar to what JJ has done.  He will need to continue what he's done for several more years to get into the HOF.  If his career ended tomorrow, or worse yet, he had 7 more years of lackluster 350 yard seasons, he wouldn't get in the HOF.

[JustInTime]

Gotcha. I’ll retract my fact based opinions then.