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hey, im a Vikings fan -- i am always worried. coming out of a great showing against the Bucs, i still have significant concerns:
1. first down productivity. it has been bad, particularly first down runs. The good news is that the offense has been good at overcoming the deficit (particularly in games 1 and 3). if it doesn't improve, it will bite us.
2. defense has given up a lot of yards. The Bucs mostly moved the ball at will , but penalties and turnovers did them in. the defnese has been above average, but not what it needs to be for this team to be a true Super Bowl contender. there is time, and the run defense has been very good.
3. Keenum is not Bradford. want to see the difference? look at two throws in the Tampa Bay game -- both of which were successful. First was a flag route to Theilen, i believe in the second quarter. he's wide open, but Keenum puts too much air under the ball, causing Theilen to make a great toe-tapping catch on the sideline. Bradford throws that ball on a rope for a routine catch and possible extra yardage. Second throw is a touchdown that Diggs goes up and gets. Again, Keenum puts air under the ball when he shouldn't, making this a great Diggs play, where Sam likely throws a bullet making this an uncontested catch.
3. The Bucs were too injured on defense to effectively follow the blueprint the Steelers used to terrorize our OL and neutralize Keenum. The Steelers had a great defensive gameplan for an OL that had basically 0 time together as a unit -- they stunted like crazy and blitzed. The Vikes OL messed up the exchanges on the stunts and did nit slide protections. Keenum did not check out of plays doomed to failure. Expect the Lions to follow the Steelers blueprint, and we shall see if the Vikings line has improved with a few weeks under its belt.
i still think the Vikes pull out a close win -- but the above concerns me for a crucial NFC North matchup.
Quote: @"Purpleblooded" said:
hey, im a Vikings fan -- i am always worried. coming out of a great showing against the Bucs, i still have significant concerns:
1. first down productivity. it has been bad, particularly first down runs. The good news is that the offense has been good at overcoming the deficit (particularly in games 1 and 3). if it doesn't improve, it will bite us.
good thing we are being less predictable on first down and not running it all the time.
2. defense has given up a lot of yards. The Bucs mostly moved the ball at will , but penalties and turnovers did them in. the defnese has been above average, but not what it needs to be for this team to be a true Super Bowl contender. there is time, and the run defense has been very good.
of course it could be argued that without the penalties maybe they wouldnt have so easily moved the ball, no?
3. Keenum is not Bradford. want to see the difference? look at two throws in the Tampa Bay game -- both of which were successful. First was a flag route to Theilen, i believe in the second quarter. he's wide open, but Keenum puts too much air under the ball, causing Theilen to make a great toe-tapping catch on the sideline. Bradford throws that ball on a rope for a routine catch and possible extra yardage. Second throw is a touchdown that Diggs goes up and gets. Again, Keenum puts air under the ball when he shouldn't, making this a great Diggs play, where Sam likely throws a bullet making this an uncontested catch.
no Case is not Sam, he has not gotten near the same experience or reps that Sam has had so maybe that touch will still come, but one positive about him not being Sam is that Case can mover around much better and will be much more likely to step through the line and take those easy 7-10 yards when they drop their LBs to take away the middle of the field. maybe not the arm or accuracy, but their is more than one way to skin a cat....
(see what I did there? I am a very punny man  )
3. The Bucs were too injured on defense to effectively follow the blueprint the Steelers used to terrorize our OL and neutralize Keenum. The Steelers had a great defensive gameplan for an OL that had basically 0 time together as a unit -- they stunted like crazy and blitzed. The Vikes OL messed up the exchanges on the stunts and did nit slide protections. Keenum did not check out of plays doomed to failure. Expect the Lions to follow the Steelers blueprint, and we shall see if the Vikings line has improved with a few weeks under its belt.
The Lions wont have the noise advantage, big difference between playing defense at home vs on the road, the Vikings wont be fighting communications noise across a relatively new together front 5 while getting used to snap count changes with a new QB. also Case was splitting reps that week with Sam, he has now had 2 full weeks of reps so everybody should be getting much more familiar.
i still think the Vikes pull out a close win -- but the above concerns me for a crucial NFC North matchup.
i agree.
Quote: @"Purpleblooded" said:
hey, im a Vikings fan -- i am always worried. coming out of a great showing against the Bucs, i still have significant concerns:
1. first down productivity. it has been bad, particularly first down runs. The good news is that the offense has been good at overcoming the deficit (particularly in games 1 and 3). if it doesn't improve, it will bite us.
2. defense has given up a lot of yards. The Bucs mostly moved the ball at will , but penalties and turnovers did them in. the defnese has been above average, but not what it needs to be for this team to be a true Super Bowl contender. there is time, and the run defense has been very good.
Don't recall the bucs moving the ball at will. They couldn't run, Evans was shut down and we created the turnovers.
3. Keenum is not Bradford. want to see the difference? look at two throws in the Tampa Bay game -- both of which were successful. First was a flag route to Theilen, i believe in the second quarter. he's wide open, but Keenum puts too much air under the ball, causing Theilen to make a great toe-tapping catch on the sideline. Bradford throws that ball on a rope for a routine catch and possible extra yardage. Second throw is a touchdown that Diggs goes up and gets. Again, Keenum puts air under the ball when he shouldn't, making this a great Diggs play, where Sam likely throws a bullet making this an uncontested catch.
Yes, Keenum isn't as good, but he seems to be a solid backup when prepared, and at home.
3. The Bucs were too injured on defense to effectively follow the blueprint the Steelers used to terrorize our OL and neutralize Keenum. The Steelers had a great defensive gameplan for an OL that had basically 0 time together as a unit -- they stunted like crazy and blitzed. The Vikes OL messed up the exchanges on the stunts and did nit slide protections. Keenum did not check out of plays doomed to failure. Expect the Lions to follow the Steelers blueprint, and we shall see if the Vikings line has improved with a few weeks under its belt.
Many of the issues in Pitt could have been pinned on Keenum as well. He drifted backwards instead of stepping up and ran himself into both sacks IIRC. The line struggled, but he had room to step up most of the time. And as you point out above in your defense of the Bucs offense, penalties killed us. Some of that is road vs home, but some just needs to be cleaned up.
i still think the Vikes pull out a close win -- but the above concerns me for a crucial NFC North matchup.
Yes, reasons to be concerned, as you note, we are Viking fans and waiting for that other shoe is what we do. But I see Keenum having another week running with the starters, being at home again, our line getting better and it should be a win, hard fought like all division battles, but a win IMO.
One big difference between last year and this year on 1st down runs-last year we were often in 2nd down and 11 or 12. Cook seems to get at least 1 or 2 yards even if he is hit behind the line. 2nd and 8 puts you in a better position, obviously.
Here are a few stats to back ip my points:
Vikes are 20th in the league in yards given up per game (340.3). Tied for 13th in points per game at 20.7 (tied with Dallas)
if you measure a productive run on first down as a run of at least 3 yards, th Vikings have been productive exactly half of the time.
25% of first down runs have gone for 0 or negative yardage. 40% have gained 1 yard or less.
**Note that i did not include kneel downs, sacks and scrambles as running plays. i also did not count first down runs on goal to go situations (i.e Cook 1 yard run on first and goal at the 1.5 yard line.
Quote: @"Purpleblooded" said:
Here are a few stats to back ip my points:
Vikes are 20th in the league in yards given up per game (340.3). Tied for 13th in points per game at 20.7 (tied with Dallas)
if you measure a productive run on first down as a run of at least 3 yards, th Vikings have been productive exactly half of the time.
25% of first down runs have gone for 0 or negative yardage. 40% have gained 1 yard or less.
**Note that i did not include kneel downs, sacks and scrambles as running plays. i also did not count first down runs on goal to go situations (i.e Cook 1 yard run on first and goal at the 1.5 yard line.
25%+40%=half?
my country brain doesn't follow.
And what is the league average? Without a benchmark it's really hard to say where we sit. Also how does this compare to the last few years? Is this an improvement, as bad as this sounds...it still seems better than what we've have the last few years.
Personally I think it's to small a sample size to draw any conclusions as to the effectiveness of first down runs with this offense.
How can we not be concerned to some extent, really? We don't have our best QB playing.
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